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Weekend Thread | Birds of Prey $33.25M Weekend

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6 minutes ago, Nova said:

 I feel like a lot of people don’t realize that WOM doesn’t help a movie at the box office if people have no interest in seeing it to begin with.

this. for people to be interested in seeing a movie they previously didn't want, it needs to be a sensation like Avatar so that you need to see it to be included in the conversation. Nothing about reviews or WOM so far indicate that BoP is going to convert disinterested crowd especially with incoming headlines about flopping/disappointing/underperforming/not meeting expectations. Everyone loves the winner and this is so winner.

Edited by Valonqar
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17 minutes ago, Justin4125 said:

It could very well be a money loser, if only slightly. I mentioned it already on this forum, but BOP's budget is not 84.5m. It just goes to show how little trades understand movie budgets. BOP's after tax budget on the cali incentive site was 84.5m. On that same site Captain Marvel's after tax budget was 116m http://film.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/CA-Tax-Credit-Progress-Report-2019.pdf

Neither figure includes post-production costs and other overages. Clearly BOP's post was not as expensive as that for Cap M, but its like people all of a sudden think post is only expensive for CGI heavy movies. While BOP captured a lot more in the frame than did Cap M, there are so many hidden costs in post nowadays. Even a movie like BOP has a fair amount of special effects shots and requires a lot of CGI touch ups. Even if post was only 1/3 that of Cap M, BOP's budget is still at around 100m. If people use this cali incentive site for their info (as BOM and others do) then they're implicitly accepting Cap M's budget at 116m

Additionally, there isn't a lot of room to save money on P&A since such a large proportion of these costs are fixed. The differences in P&A costs between a massive and mid-budget movie is often only around 50%. BOP is still an event flick, so its hard to see how the marketing would be under 100m. So with about 200m budget + P&A (and that's relatively conservative for P&A, Deadline pegged Shazam's P&A at 120m and WB likely allotted the same amount of money to both films) I think BOP will need at least between 250m - 275m WW to break even, and thats with solid ancilliaries (assuming people who skipped out on BOP in theaters will catch it as a rental/streamer)

Captain Marvel didn't film only in CA. BoP filmed completely in California. That's the difference.

 

Also, tax credits are on qualified expenses as opposed to full expenses. There's a lot of out of state work done which won't qualify.

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37 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:
TD YD Release Daily %± YD %± LW Theaters Avg To Date Days Distributor
1 - Birds of Prey $13,025,000 - - 4,236 $3,074 $13,025,000 1 Warner Bros.
2 1 Bad Boys for Life $3,030,000 +166% -41.6% 3,530 $858 $157,352,207 22 Sony Pictures Releasing
3 2 1917 $2,320,000 +126.6% -17% 3,548 $653 $125,862,909 45 Universal Pictures
4 4 Dolittle $1,470,000 +216% -25.2% 3,462 $424 $58,769,985 22 Universal Pictures
5 5 Jumanji: The Next Level $1,240,000 +237% -18.5% 2,729 $454 $294,170,411 57 Sony Pictures Releasing
6 3 The Gentlemen $1,200,000 +118.7% -34.7% 2,557 $469 $23,871,981 15 STX Entertainment
7 6 Gretel & Hansel $965,000 +170.1% -58.8% 3,007 $320 $8,989,240 8 United Artists Releasing
8 9 Knives Out $643,000 +176.5% -17.2% 1,443 $445 $157,234,650 73 Lionsgate
9 7 Little Women $615,000 +79.3% -29.7% 1,805 $340 $100,963,143 45 Sony Pictures Releasing
10 8 Star Wars: Episode IX - The Rise of Skywalker $524,000 +94.8% -38.5% 1,746 $300 $508,845,478 50 Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures
11 10 Just Mercy $435,000 +106.8% -36.3% 1,315 $330 $32,285,112 45 Warner Bros.
12 13 The Turning $400,000 +113.7% -56.5% 1,848 $216 $13,011,330 15 Universal Pictures
13 12 Parasite $400,000 +109.6% -4% 1,060 $377 $34,372,282 120 Neon
14 14 Jojo Rabbit $374,000 +105.2% -9.2% 1,096 $341 $29,120,950 113 Fox Searchlight Pictures
15 11 The Rhythm Section $295,000 +44.9% -74.4% 3,049 $96 $4,187,991 8 Paramount Pictures
16 15 Frozen II $243,000 +113.7% -35.4% 1,131 $214 $473,176,674 78 Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures
17 16 Ford v Ferrari $199,000 +147.8% +0.2% 743 $267 $115,895,692 85 Twentieth Century Fox
18 17 Spies in Disguise $178,000 +135.9% -29.6% 800 $222 $64,093,667 45 Twentieth Century Fox
19 20 Bombshell $66,000 +49.6% -29.1% 272 $242 $31,101,756 57 Lionsgate
20 22 Like a Boss $55,000 +45.8% -65.3% 295 $186 $21,818,873 29 Paramount Pictures
21 24 Underwater $33,000 +27.2% -71.2% 226 $146 $16,923,061 29 Twentieth Century Fox
22 21 Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood $25,000 -42.4% +20.8% 583 $42 $142,196,868 197 Sony Pictures Releasing
23 25 A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood $25,000 +28.3% -33.9% 155 $161 $61,252,240 78 Sony Pictures Releasing
24 32 Cats $16,000 +297% -22% 85 $188 $27,123,860 50 Universal Pictures
25 29 Panga $9,000 +64.4% -74.7% 37 $243 $544,049 15 FIP
26 35 Maleficent: Mistress of Evil $6,000 +133.9% -27.3% 68 $88 $113,897,999 113 Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures

Damn, those 3/4/5 movies have been chugging along the last 3 weeks - biggest beneficiaries of the past 3 weeks have been 1917, Dolittle, and Jumanji...and all 3 probably continue to benefit for all of Feb b/c they are still 3/4/5...(Jumanji might be the drop for Sonic, but I don't even know that theaters have to clear out the top 5 next week for the openers b/c BoP will have so much room available to give away by Thursday)...

 

EDIT TO ADD: Sony is the winner of 2020 so far...and Universal is doing better than they probably thought they would 3 weeks ago:)...

Edited by TwoMisfits
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WIDE (1000+)

# TITLE WEEKEND   LOCATIONS   AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Birds of Prey (And the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn) $34,000,000 4,236 $8,026 $34,000,000 1 Warner Bros.
2 Bad Boys For Life $11,100,000 -37% 3,530 -175 $3,144 $165,422,207 4 Sony / Columbia
3 1917 $8,800,000 -7% 3,548 -439 $2,480 $132,342,909 7 Universal Pictures
4 Dolittle $6,600,000 -13% 3,462 -288 $1,906 $63,899,985 4 Universal
5 Jumanji: The Next Level $5,500,000 -8% 2,729 -216 $2,015 $298,430,411 9 Sony Pictures
6 The Gentlemen $4,300,000 -23% 2,557 -118 $1,682 $26,971,981 3 STX Entertainment
7 Knives Out $2,400,000 -7% 1,443 -112 $1,663 $158,991,650 11 Lionsgate
8 Little Women $2,400,000 -22% 1,805 -496 $1,330 $102,748,143 7 Sony Pictures
9 Star Wars: The Rise Of Skywalker $2,300,000 -28% 1,746 -456 $1,317 $510,621,478 8 Disney
10 Just Mercy $1,600,000 -26% 1,315 -492 $1,217 $33,450,112 7 Warner Bros.
11 Jojo Rabbit $1,500,000 12% 1,096 -77 $1,369 $30,246,950 17 Fox Searchlight
12 The Turning $1,400,000 -54% 1,848 -723 $758 $14,011,330 3 Universal Pictures
13 Frozen II $1,300,000 -27% 1,131 -261 $1,149 $474,233,674 12 Disney
14 The Rhythm Section $1,000,000 -63% 3,049 0 $328 $4,892,991 2 Paramount

LIMITED (100 — 999)

# TITLE WEEKEND   LOCATIONS   AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Spies in Disguise $1,000,000 -16% 800 -228 $1,250 $64,915,667 7 20th Century Fox
2 Ford v. Ferrari $790,000 28% 743 -181 $1,063 $116,486,692 13 20th Century Fox
3 Bombshell $255,000 -20% 272 -206 $938 $31,290,756 9 Lionsgate
4 Like a Boss $190,000 -62% 295 -370 $644 $21,953,873 5 Paramount Pictures
5 Underwater $125,000 -67% 226 -375 $553 $17,015,061 5 20th Century Fox
6 Once Upon a Time In Hollywood $110,000 -26% 583 -36 $189 $142,281,868 29 Sony Pictures
7 A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood $100,000 -19% 155 -46 $645 $61,327,240 12 Sony Pictures

PLATFORM (1 — 99)

# TITLE WEEKEND   LOCATIONS   AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Cats $60,000 -15% 85 -20 $706 $27,167,860 8 Universal Pictures
2 Panga $35,000 -72% 37 -65 $946 $570,049 3 FIP
3 Maleficent: Mistress of Evil $30,000 -14% 68 -16 $441 $113,921,999 17 Disney
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11 minutes ago, Justin4125 said:

It could very well be a money loser, if only slightly. I mentioned it already on this forum, but BOP's budget is not 84.5m. It just goes to show how little trades understand movie budgets. BOP's after tax budget on the cali incentive site was 84.5m. On that same site Captain Marvel's after tax budget was 116m http://film.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/CA-Tax-Credit-Progress-Report-2019.pdf

Neither figure includes post-production costs and other overages. Clearly BOP's post was not as expensive as that for Cap M, but its like people all of a sudden think post is only expensive for CGI heavy movies. While BOP captured a lot more in the frame than did Cap M, there are so many hidden costs in post nowadays. Even a movie like BOP has a fair amount of special effects shots and requires a lot of CGI touch ups. Even if post was only 1/3 that of Cap M, BOP's budget is still at around 100m. If people use this cali incentive site for their info (as BOM and others do) then they're implicitly accepting Cap M's budget at 116m

Additionally, there isn't a lot of room to save money on P&A since such a large proportion of these costs are fixed. The differences in P&A costs between a massive and mid-budget movie is often only around 50%. BOP is still an event flick, so its hard to see how the marketing would be under 100m. So with about 200m budget + P&A (and that's relatively conservative for P&A, Deadline pegged Shazam's P&A at 120m and WB likely allotted the same amount of money to both films) I think BOP will need at least between 250m - 275m WW to break even, and thats with solid ancilliaries (assuming people who skipped out on BOP in theaters will catch it as a rental/streamer)

I owe you a like, but I'm out:).

 

Deadline did previously announce (before anyone saw a box office dollar) that it would need $250M WW to break even...and that's in doubt right now after this weekend...we could be in flop territory (although probably not bomb ones, since I reserve that for the $100M+ money losers)...

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5 minutes ago, grim22 said:

Captain Marvel didn't film only in CA. BoP filmed completely in California. That's the difference.

You're right that does account for some of the lost money, but still Cap M was essentially a Cali-made film. They scheduled shots in Baton Rouge for the tail end of filming and did two weeks with about half the crew. I highly doubt this accounts for the missing 50m from its budget. In any case there's still missing money from post-production, and that still brings BOP's budget over the quoted 85m

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Nobody is happy. A lot of people were rooting for this movie but felt that R rating was a bad idea and thought that marketing was subpar. Pointing out they were right is not the same as being happy. 

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5 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

A lot of people were rooting for this movie but felt that R rating was a bad idea

 

I scoffed at Sony for making Bloodshot PG-13, but heck maybe they were right.

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1 minute ago, Valonqar said:

Morbius gonna flop. Who the fuck knows about this character and Leto isn't likable like Hardy. 

I thought it would but the trailer is pretty well received and people are now intrigued by the potential MCU connections 

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Just now, John Marston said:

I thought it would but the trailer is pretty well received and people are now intrigued by the potential MCU connections 

ah, my bad. Forgot about that interest booster. 

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