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Eric Bombay

Weekend Thread (14 Feb - 17 Feb) - Sonic 58M/70M

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Sonic = Nostalgia + Kids/Families = Box Office Success

 

Nice early numbers.  Looks to break the Video Game Film OW record.  

 

 

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Wow at Sonic. We are in for some huge surprises this year. Buckle up folks.

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Idk if anyone predicted Bad Boys doing 200m+ and Sonic potentially doing 175m+. Crazy. 

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This is going to be the year of debut filmmakers.

Edited by marveldcfox
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1 hour ago, Arendelle Legion said:

Sonic+BB3 over every 2020 movie :ph34r:

 

Hah! That's not a half bad target.

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22 minutes ago, Madhuvan said:

BOP

6.3m +6.3m + 4.7 =17.3m Weekend 

Sub 50% hold. 👍

If it goes under 50% then we thank the name change and SEO optimization. 😊

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9 minutes ago, a2k said:

If it goes under 50% then we thank the name change and SEO optimization. 😊

Or just a Weekend with 3 holidays instead of 1. I mean if there wasn't Valentine's day on Friday & President Day on Sunday, we were looking at $3.7mn Friday & $3.9mn Sunday for $14mn weekend i.e. -58%.

 

Even Sonic weekend is boosted by $10mn.

Edited by cJS
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BOP

62 +17.3*2.5 = 105. 25m

62 +17.3*2    =  96.6m 

62+17.3*1.75=  92.275m

 

Seems all certain to cross 90m Domestic. With good holds will cross 100m.

Not a big underperformer. 

Sequel should happen. 

 

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This decade is going to be for video game movie mainstream success what the 00’s was for CBMs, calling it now. We are right on the brink of the first true video game box office juggernaut, not sure what it is but I would bet money it’s close. The first three fresh VGMs and highest grossing ones all in the last year. The tides are definitely turning I’d say. 

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16 minutes ago, cJS said:

Or just a Weekend with 3 holidays instead of 1. I mean if there wasn't Valentine's day on Friday & President Day on Sunday, we were looking at $3.7mn Friday & $3.9mn Sunday for $14mn weekend i.e. -58%.

 

Even Sonic weekend is boosted by $10mn.

Yup, it definitely has the calendar to thank. Course next weekend when it corrects (as all the films will do) the reverse sorrows will be ironic. 

The fact that we are happy with it just missing the 50% mark on an inflated holiday weekend without a massive week 1 opening says a lot. 

Not sure WB could have done much to improve it knowing now how its production was. 

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8 minutes ago, Madhuvan said:

BOP

62 +17.3*2.5 = 105. 25m

62 +17.3*2    =  96.6m 

62+17.3*1.75=  92.275m

 

Seems all certain to cross 90m Domestic. With good holds will cross 100m.

Not a big underperformer. 

Sequel should happen. 

 

For the sake of the 100m line, I hope it has decent holds to get there. Will eventually make my opinion on the quality itself once I see it and better understand how it played. 

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The main problem with BOP was marketing. 

Movie is actually quite good. The movie should have been marketed in more friendly way rather than on your face. 

 

They should have marketed this as a big event. 

BOP is the first Superhero female ensemble. WB had an opportunity to set a benchmark. 

Edited by Madhuvan
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25 minutes ago, cJS said:

Or just a Weekend with 3 holidays instead of 1. I mean if there wasn't Valentine's day on Friday & President Day on Sunday, we were looking at $3.7mn Friday & $3.9mn Sunday for $14mn weekend i.e. -58%.

 

Even Sonic weekend is boosted by $10mn.

Holidays are part of the box office year round. Most movies benefit from one. 

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17 minutes ago, Madhuvan said:

BOP

62 +17.3*2.5 = 105. 25m

62 +17.3*2    =  96.6m 

62+17.3*1.75=  92.275m

 

Seems all certain to cross 90m Domestic. With good holds will cross 100m.

Not a big underperformer. 

Sequel should happen. 

 

lol

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One of the problem was no big star except Robbie and Ewan McGregor. 

 

Deadpool was exception otherwise CBMs always try to get big actor in good supporting role. 

 

 

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1 minute ago, Madhuvan said:

The only problem with BOP was marketing. 

Movie is actually quite good. The movie should have been marketed in more friendly way rather than on your face. 

 

They should have marketed this as a big event. 

BOP is the first Superhero female ensemble. WB had an opportunity to set a benchmark. 

i disagree, they made a niche film, i don't think general audiences like it as much as cb fans, evident by meh cinemascore, almost like scott pilgrim which some love and others hate

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2 minutes ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

i disagree, they made a niche film, i don't think general audiences like it as much as cb fans, evident by meh cinemascore, almost like scott pilgrim which some love and others hate

B+ cinemascore for R-rated movie is quite good. 

Most of the people who watched BOP loved/liked. 

 

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6 minutes ago, Johnny Tran said:

Holidays are part of the box office year round. Most movies benefit from one. 

Yes and no? The layout of this particular calendar configuration is unique in the fact that its only every 6 years or so (similar to when Christmas and New Years fall on Fridays). Nowhere else on the Domestic calendar do we have a legitimate 4 day weekend that starts with the equivalent of a super movie date night. 

Closest that happens consistantly would be Easter, but its a skewed playout with its own rules. This particular calendar set up overly benefits / skews all movies in play somewhat in a way that other 4 day weekends do not. 

 

That being said, you are correct in that most movies benefit on some level from a holiday, since NA has them on a 6 to 8 week basis spread. This is just not a normal holiday playout.

Edited by narniadis
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