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Eric Atreides

Weekend Thread (14 Feb - 17 Feb) - Sonic 58M/70M

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9 minutes ago, Barnack said:

First Ant-Man deadline estimate:

https://issuu.com/pmcderek/docs/no._14_ant-man

They are really low on participations. That's main difference. I guess I am on higher side, that's why I wasn't sure. May be $35-40mn would be apt. Other than that $30mn less budget & $20mn less release cost, these all basically adds upto that $100mn. 

 

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55 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Strip 3% from all of them.

16.3

4.76

 

1.84

1.70

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3 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

They are really low on participations. That's main difference. I guess I am on higher side, that's why I wasn't sure. May be $35-40mn would be apt. Other than that $30mn less budget & $20mn less release cost, these all basically adds upto that $100mn. 

 

Yes and significantly higher box office (they are ridiculously low on participation, do anyone really believe Feige alone does not cost a fortune in participation on all of these...)

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Sonic sold 283K at MTC1 and 244K at MTC2. I think its dropping low 20's at worst. 16-16.5m sunday. 

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USA Theatrical Share for an Indian film. Left is Gross while Right is Share.

Quote
Cinemark $972,000 $535,000
Regal / AMC $719,000 $345,000
Harkins $77,000 $39,000
Marcus $72,000 $36,000
Emagine $50,000 $25,000
New Vision Theatres $31,000 $16,000
Others $352,000 $212,000
Total $2,273,000 $1,207,000
VPF & Publicity   $200,000
USA Share (Excluding VPF)   $1,007,000

 

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1 hour ago, Blaze Heatnix said:

So, what's Sonic's budget and how much does it need to do in order to make  profit?

 

Most of the articles say the budget is 84 million. I guess something like 300 million would be enough? At least, it seems to be making good domestic numbers.

 

Hopefully a sequel gets made. Can't wait for it.

That sounds about right. I just assume the same budget for marketing for these mid tier films. (80+80) x 2. It’ll get there.  Sonic 2 was considered one of the very best of the video game series so maybe this bodes well for the sequel. Haha. 

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3 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Anything below Captain Marvel is a disappointment for Strange 2. It's biggest (2nd) Phase 4 film at this time.

Probably true but CM got like 150m extra thanks to End Game. They marketed it so well.

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Really happy that Paramount got a win with Sonic.

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1 hour ago, cdsacken said:

Probably true but CM got like 150m extra thanks to End Game. They marketed it so well.

even if thats true, thats still 980 mill, so again sub billion

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5 hours ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Even for bigger MCU films like Strange 2, 900M WW is still fucking excellent, how many sequels increase nowadays? As long as you’re not Avengers or something that over performed like crazy like Panther/Marvel, a sub 1B WW total isn’t the end of the world or a disappointment.

 

Hell, I have may have SM3 falling at 385M/1.1B WW which is essentially flat and it’s still a extraordinary success.

Some people here just seem to be setting themselves up for dissapointment. Same thing with the Batman will 100% open to 200 mil gang

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Sonic the Hedgehog               16.40
Birds of Prey                 4.70
Bad Boys for Life                 3.05
Fantasy Island                 2.80
1917                 2.40
The Photograph                 2.15
Parasite                 1.65
Jumanji: The Next Level                 1.55
Dolittle                 1.35
Downhill                 0.95

 

Spoiler
$20,870,000 $20,435,000 $16,410,000 $57,715,000

 

Edited by charlie Jatinder
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Adding 2x the revised weekend (17.1 -> 17.4) will give BOP 94+ dom. Has a shot at 100.

 

2019 2nd weekend over President's Day FSS (VD fell on Thu):

 

Lego2 had a 20.8 FSS and added 43.5 / 2.09x to it's cume.

Feb 15, 2019 2 $20,804,670 -39% 4,303 $4,835   $62,280,029 2

 

What Men Want had a 10.7 FSS and added 18.7 / 1.75x to it's cume

Feb 15, 2019 4 $10,675,205 -41% 2,912 $3,666   $35,905,533 2

 

Cold Pursuit had a 6 FSS and added 11 / 1.83x to it's cume.

Feb 15, 2019 6 $5,977,782 -46% 2,630 $2,273   $21,100,114 2

 

VD falling on Thu might not have inflated the FSS as it has this time. So 2x+ won't be easy for BOP.

Edited by a2k
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1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:
Sonic the Hedgehog               16.40
Birds of Prey                 4.70
Bad Boys for Life                 3.05
Fantasy Island                 2.80
1917                 2.40
The Photograph                 2.15
Parasite                 1.65
Jumanji: The Next Level                 1.55
Dolittle                 1.35
Downhill                 0.95

 

  Hide contents
$20,870,000 $20,435,000 $16,410,000 $57,715,000

 

Oof, Jumanji and Doolittle both down 200k from what they were estimating for Sunday.

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@MCKillswitch123 Absolutely mad Valentine's Day weekend here. Sonic leads in tickets sold but Birds of Prey wins in box office. Sonic opened slightly below Pokémon.

 

https://www.ica-ip.pt/fotos/downloads/ranking_fds_13a_16_fevereiro_2020_257925e4a7eebda140.pdf

 

Insane jump for Parasites, this motherfucker is gonna go above 100.000 tickets sold with Carnival coming holy fucking shit, such an unreal number.

 

Also fantastic hold for 1917 even without big Oscar wins and Bad Boys can't stop, won't stop.

 

And HOLY SHIT at Fantasy Island. Above Escape Room, Insidious 4, Happy Death Day, Get Out and many many others. One of the biggest Blumhouse openings I can recall. It was not much below the openings of Halloween and Us.

 

 

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5 hours ago, AndyK said:

Really happy that Paramount got a win with Sonic.

Also so happy. Paramount deserved better.

 

The combo Sonic / A quiet place will change things for them.

Then, Summer tentpoles Maverick and Spongebob are likely to be hits.

Add Without remorse, Trial of the Chicago 7, Snake Eyes, Coming 2 America, Tomorrow war, Infinite...

 

Possibly over 1billion DOM since...

 

 

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10 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Anything below Captain Marvel is a disappointment for Strange 2. It's biggest (2nd) Phase 4 film at this time.

Discounting the 2022 films Panther 2 and Guardians 2, shouldn’t even Thor 4 be expected to do better than Strange 2?

 

That’s a ridiculous floor to set for something, especially since there’s no way that floor is what Disney would bar a disappointment.  I’m sure any increase from the first one, or even staying relatively flat, would be good enough to keep the Strange franchise rolling

Edited by The Panda
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4 minutes ago, The Panda said:

Discounting the 2022 films Panther 2 and Guardians 2, shouldn’t even Thor 4 be expected to do better than Strange 2?

 

That’s a ridiculous floor to set for something, especially since there’s no way that floor is what Disney would bar a disappointment.  I’m sure any increase from the first one, or even staying relatively flat, would be good enough to keep the Strange franchise rolling

I’m actually not sure those two movies count for Phase 4, which is why Charlie worded it as he did 

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11 hours ago, Arendelle Legion said:

Well, below 1B is a bit of a disappointing result for an MCU movie at this point. Don’t see what’s so inflated about that.

No, no it’s not. Especially when films like Ant Man 3 and Blade are coming out. Not all MCU films will do $1B and that’s okay.

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