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filmlover

Best Picture Predictions - 2020

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Just realized we didn't have this thread until now. Feels more than a little surreal that Oscar season is over before President's Day weekend.

 

Begin sharing your predictions that are sure to age like milk here!

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On 7/26/2019 at 12:12 AM, CoolioD1 said:

Ad Astra

A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

The Farewell

FordFerrari 

Jojo Rabbit

Little Women

Marriage Story 

1917

Once Upon A Time in Hollywood

Parasite

 

something like that is my early top 10. 

this was my first prediction last year. not bad. 7 of these got nominated. (ignore an early post i made in that thread where i said The Laundromat could be Soderbergh's Oscar comeback).

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Mank

Trial of the Chicago 7

Da 5 Bloods

TENET

Dune (unless it bombs)

New David O Russell film

Last Duel

French Dispatch

Nightmare Alley (if it's a 2020 film)

Minari could be another Sundance hit-cum-Oscar-heavyweight, but I feel like it'll be like The Farewell, where it peaks at the Indie Spirit Awards.

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first ten. not gonna predict movies that i'm not sure of a 2020 release

 

Ammonite

The French Dispatch

Hillbilly Elegy

In The Heights

The Last Duel

Mank

Minari

Nomadland

News of The World

Tenet

 

maybe Soul if it's top tier pixar.

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The Last Duel will win something. Dunno what but it’ll win at least one award.

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On 2/16/2020 at 3:16 AM, CoolioD1 said:

this was my first prediction last year. not bad. 7 of these got nominated. (ignore an early post i made in that thread where i said The Laundromat could be Soderbergh's Oscar comeback).

was Parasite on your radar before it won at Cannes? if so great call 

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3 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

was Parasite on your radar before it won at Cannes? if so great call 

no i didn't make a prediction until the summer lol. I called it winning the palme d'or after the cannes line-up was announced tho.

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Mank (Fincher,Netflix)

 

The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Sorkin) 

 

The French Dispatch (Wes Anderson duh)

 

Da 5 Bloods (Spike Lee, Netflix)

 

Hillbilly Elegy (Ron Howard, Netflix)

 

Annette (Adam Driver Marion Cotillard musical directed by Leos Carax in his english language debut, expected to premiere at Cannes)

 

West Side Story (Spielberg remake of the 1961 musical, but it's starring Ansel who is box office & awards poison so who knows if it'll happen)

 

Nightmare Alley (if it makes December) 

 

In The Rocks (Sofia Copolla, Apple)

 

Dune/Tenet ( feel like at least one of those 2 will get nominated above the line, hopefully it's Denis cus i like him more).

 

Ammonite (British Ronan/Winslet lesbian period piece so it could break out ala Carol 2015 but im not too confident in it other than supporting actress for Ronan)

 

 

Ranked them by how likely I think they're going to win best picture as of right now, (Mank being frontrunner to win is no brainer but I wouldn't be shocked of Sorkin wins it)

 

 

buzzy films I think will miss best picture:

the new David o Russel film 

the new Adam Mckay/Jlaw comedy ( no enough room for another Netflix film and even 3 sounds too much)

The Last Duel

In The Heights 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by RealLyre
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Out of the currently known big guns The French Dispatch and Da 5 Bloods might have the best shot. Everything else too niche/too bland/too auteur/too redundant/too Netflix etc. (seems if anyone can break their BP curse it's Spike since everyone loves him now).

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3 hours ago, Jake Gittes said:

Out of the currently known big guns The French Dispatch and Da 5 Bloods might have the best shot. Everything else too niche/too bland/too auteur/too redundant/too Netflix etc. (seems if anyone can break their BP curse it's Spike since everyone loves him now).

Honestly it might not even be anything on our radar right now. Was Green Book really on anyone's until the trailer landed a bit before its TIFF premiere?

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3 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Honestly it might not even be anything on our radar right now. Was Green Book really on anyone's until the trailer landed a bit before its TIFF premiere?

Sure that's why I specified. Most of the recent winners I had no idea were coming and/or never seriously thought about as potential contenders a year before the ceremony. It's all bored wild guesses from now until fall.

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8 minutes ago, Jake Gittes said:

Sure that's why I specified. Most of the recent winners I had no idea were coming and/or never seriously thought about as potential contenders a year before the ceremony. It's all bored wild guesses from now until fall.

Probably a good choice after the spoilers have won the last five or six ceremonies.

 

Will also be interesting, with this being an especially heated election year, how politics will figure into the whole equation. Although I think it's safe to say that if (god forbid) Trump gets re-elected they won't be inviting Melania to present Best Picture like they did with Michelle Obama via satellite the year of Barack's re-election (the Argo year) :lol:.

Edited by filmlover

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A part of me hopes that West Side Story gets the most nominations of all the movies in the race just so we have another Ansolo moment where he presents two categories in which his film is nominated only to lose both of them.

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my early feeling is that in the heights will be a bigger contender than west side story. WSS will be knocked for being pointless and dated and will be unfavourably compared to Heights. people forget about the story of spielberg going to Puerto Rico for advice on how to do it respectfully and their advice was "don't make this fucking movie" lol. although maybe it'll play like green book and "pointless and dated" will be it's strength.

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I suspect at worst West Side Story will be another one of those respectable Spielberg productions that gets a few tech noms and maybe a major one (Anita is usually a nominated and sometimes winning role so Ariana DeBose should be a likely contender; doesn't hurt that she's gonna have a nice profile boost in the fourth quarter between that and fellow Broadway adaptation The Prom) even if it isn't able to live up to the expectations that a Spielberg/Kushner adaptation of a beloved Broadway musical that was previously made into a Best Picture-winning movie would automatically have from the moment it was announced. At the very least it won't be another Cats (then again there will never be another Cats lmao).

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11 minutes ago, filmlover said:

 even if it isn't able to live up to the expectations that a Spielberg/Kushner adaptation of a beloved Broadway musical that was previously made into a Best Picture-winning movie would automatically have from the moment it was announced. 

expectations don't seem that high to me. they're basically at "don't fuck it up" level from anybody who cares.

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6 hours ago, CoolioD1 said:

expectations don't seem that high to me. they're basically at "don't fuck it up" level from anybody who cares.

And even if they fuck it up, who cares?  Your local High School Production of it will be right around the corner in the springs.

 

Anyway,

 

This is In The Heights to lose.  Time for Lin to PEGOT.

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23 hours ago, RealLyre said:

Mank (Fincher,Netflix)

 

The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Sorkin) 

 

The French Dispatch (Wes Anderson duh)

 

Da 5 Bloods (Spike Lee, Netflix)

 

Hillbilly Elegy (Ron Howard, Netflix)

 

Annette (Adam Driver Marion Cotillard musical directed by Leos Carax in his english language debut, expected to premiere at Cannes)

 

West Side Story (Spielberg remake of the 1961 musical, but it's starring Ansel who is box office & awards poison so who knows if it'll happen)

 

Nightmare Alley (if it makes December) 

 

In The Rocks (Sofia Copolla, Apple)

 

Dune/Tenet ( feel like at least one of those 2 will get nominated above the line, hopefully it's Denis cus i like him more).

 

Ammonite (British Ronan/Winslet lesbian period piece so it could break out ala Carol 2015 but im not too confident in it other than supporting actress for Ronan)

Hillbilly Elegy will probably be another Two Popes for Netflix at best imo (Close and Adams get actress/supp nom but thats it) and I doubt two musical get in. It's going to be West Side Story vs In the Heights. I'm also a bit skeptical about Mank and In the Rocks (I just don't know what to expect from the former and the latter is an Apple movie). Other than that, along the lines of my predictions.

 

Da 5 Bloods

In the Heights

Blonde

Nightmare Alley

The French Dispatch

David O. Russell film

Tenet

The Trial of Chicago 7

Minari

Macbeth

 

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9 hours ago, Cap said:

And even if they fuck it up, who cares?  Your local High School Production of it will be right around the corner in the springs.

There's also a grittier revival that just opened on Broadway this week. Think I read somewhere that some of the actors who are playing the Sharks/Jets in the movie are also in it. Seems like everyone's going all in on West Side Story this year.

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1 hour ago, lorddemaxus said:

Hillbilly Elegy will probably be another Two Popes for Netflix at best imo (Close and Adams get actress/supp nom but thats it) and I doubt two musical get in. It's going to be West Side Story vs In the Heights. I'm also a bit skeptical about Mank and In the Rocks (I just don't know what to expect from the former and the latter is an Apple movie). Other than that, along the lines of my predictions.

 

Da 5 Bloods

In the Heights

Blonde

Nightmare Alley

The French Dispatch

David O. Russell film

Tenet

The Trial of Chicago 7

Minari

Macbeth

 

there's no way Mank gets snubbed, it'll be Netflix biggest push (unless it's poorly received, but when was the last time that happened to a Fincher film?), I COULD see a worse case scenario is that it will end up like the Irishman, multiple nominations across the boards but no wins) but even that is not likely because Fincher is an overdue director unlike Marty. from the current lineup I could really see him winning his long overdue best director award (unless something surprises from Cannes or TIFF and pulls a Parasite but chances for that to happen again are p slim).

 

 

is Macbeth even coming out this year? I don't think it started shooting yet. 

 

Minari sounds like it'll be this year''s The Farewell so it could go 50/50. if A24 don't have anything else to push, it might get in.  

 

 

On The Rocks is Apple's first real chance to prove itself as a streaming service that puts out quality movies that could contend for awards (since it'll get limited theatrical release too), it's co-produced by A24 and from acclaimed director Sofia Coppola.  

 

 

 

why do you think Blonde will happen? (besides it being a biopic and u being a fan of Ana) 

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