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filmlover

Best Picture Predictions - 2020

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1 minute ago, Eric Atreides said:

So this Cannes announcement...is this for a future festival later this year? Or is this just saying "here was what was gonna debut"?

seems like it's for the films that will get the cannes label and play at Fall festivals later this year. they said there wont be any Cannes awards.

 

they didn't mention the films that decided to wait for the 2021 Cannes edition like Bendetta so I guess it's not the original selection?

 

 

 

 

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3 minutes ago, Eric Atreides said:

So this Cannes announcement...is this for a future festival later this year? Or is this just saying "here was what was gonna debut"?

it's pretty much a label for these movies to put in their marketing since there's no festival. there are other movies that would've played like the Verhoeven, or Moretti films that have opted out of being included in the announcement so they can play at Venice or Cannes 2021.

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1 minute ago, CoolioD1 said:

it's pretty much a label for these movies to put in their marketing since there's no festival. there are other movies that would've played like the Verhoeven, or Moretti films that have opted out of being included in the announcement so they can play at Venice or Cannes 2021.

the Verhoeven one is going to next year's Cannes, it was announced a while ago

 

 

 

also from what I understood those films with the Cannes label can still play at Venice but they can't compete in Venice's official selection. If Venice still happens 

 

 

 

 

 

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i think venice can happen. the virus has dropped off a lot there recently. though it might just be mostly local films. no Italian films in that cannes announcement probably because they're all being saved for venice.

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1 minute ago, filmlover said:

Wasn't Top Gun 2 also supposed to premiere at Cannes? I wonder if they'll put the label on that one too lol.

Looks like a no since it's not there in the line-up. Soul is there though. I wonder if that would've played in competition. Pixar has premiered movies at Cannes a few times but never in competition but for some reason the first two SHREK movies played in competition lol. so there's a precedent for mainstream animated stuff.

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13 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

Looks like a no since it's not there in the line-up. Soul is there though. I wonder if that would've played in competition. Pixar has premiered movies at Cannes a few times but never in competition but for some reason the first two SHREK movies played in competition lol. so there's a precedent for mainstream animated stuff.

Soul would have played in competition. Cannes has only listed the in competition films right now on their website (no Da 5 Bloods which we know was gonna play out of competition). Top Gun might've played out of competition.

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29 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Soul would have played in competition. Cannes has only listed the in competition films right now on their website (no Da 5 Bloods which we know was gonna play out of competition). Top Gun might've played out of competition.

idk. they listed 56 films, three times the size of a typical competition line-up (including three other animated films besides Soul). and that's not counting movies that were set to compete but opted for next year instead. maybe da 5 bloods just isn't there because it's not gonna be playing any other festivals or theaters and doesn't need the prestige boost for its netflix release.

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4 minutes ago, Jake Gittes said:

idk. they listed 56 films, three times the size of a typical competition line-up (including three other animated films besides Soul). and that's not counting movies that were set to compete but opted for next year instead. maybe da 5 bloods just isn't there because it's not gonna be playing any other festivals or theaters and doesn't need the prestige boost for its netflix release.

Yeah, maybe you're right. Didn't realise that it was 56 films.

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I think these films will be big players:

 

Ammonite

Da 5 Bloods*

The French Dispatch

Never, Rarely, Sometimes, Always

 

* = Just give to Da 5 Bloods now. It'll win.

 

I think they'll still be released:

 

The Trial of the Chicago 7

[other Netflix stuff]

 

For indiscriminate categories:

 

  • Radioactive for Rosamund Pike. (Amazon Studios.) The film was at festivals last year and didn't receive mind-blowing reviews, but if the Covid-19 situation causes the Best Actress field to be dry, she could have a narrative for a nomination.
  • Sound of Metal for the Sound Categories. (Amazon Studios.) It's not something I'm banking on because the film itself diverges from typical Oscar fare, but if Amazon wanted to, they have an opportunity to weave an unprecedented narrative targeting the two Sound categories almost exclusively.
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16 minutes ago, SLAM! said:

Radioactive for Rosamund Pike. (Amazon Studios.) The film was at festivals last year and didn't receive mind-blowing reviews, but if the Covid-19 situation causes the Best Actress field to be dry, she could have a narrative for a nomination.

Pretty nutty that we have a potential Best Actress field that could include Elisabeth Moss (for The Invisible Man), Margot Robbie (Birds of Prey), and Anya Taylor-Joy (Emma.). At the very least they all have good shots at the Globes (the Musical/Comedy categories are looking to be especially thin this year).

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i'll throw out a prediction, that goes against my secondary prediction that the Oscars won't happen.

 

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7

2. The French Dispatch

3. Mank

4. Hillbilly Elegy

5. Tenet

6. Minari

7. Soul

8. News of the World

9. West Side Story

10. Dune

 

 

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6 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

i'll throw out a prediction, that goes against my secondary prediction that the Oscars won't happen.

 

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7

2. The French Dispatch

3. Mank

4. Hillbilly Elegy

5. Tenet

6. Minari

7. Soul

8. News of the World

9. West Side Story

10. Dune

 

 

No Da 5 Bloods? I guess we'll find out in about a week (or less depending on when the reviews drop).

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39 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

I'm not on the Da 5 Bloods will win best picture train yet, but having Hillbilly Elegy over it is odd, the latter sounds more like the type of film that would just get acting nods above the line.

 

 

 

 

 

hillbilly elegy from what i understand about the book, sounds very green book.

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Been a while since Ron Howard made anything to be genuinely excited about but Hillbilly Elegy sounds like his safest bet at getting on the Oscar radar again in quite some time. Also helps it has a pair of potential acting frontrunners in Adams and Close (and one of them is sure to be frauded into Supporting to increase their winning chances).

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i went with the too safe choice but in the back of my head my actual feeling is that Soul is gonna win best picture. i'm not convinced that isn't a fanboy choice but hey me saying parasite is gonna win was a fanboy choice too.

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9 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

i went with the too safe choice but in the back of my head my actual feeling is that Soul is gonna win best picture. i'm not convinced that isn't a fanboy choice but hey me saying parasite is gonna win was a fanboy choice too.

Honestly, given what a year 2020 has turned out to be, it wouldn't be overly shocking to see the animated Best Picture barrier fall a year after the foreign language one did, especially if Soul is a hit (or at least as much of one a movie can be in the COVID-19 era) and is as adored as Docter's previous two movies were.

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