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Best Picture Predictions - 2020

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Nomadland rises with excellent reviews while Ammonite's are looking mixed at best. Acting nominations are likely the most the latter can hope for.

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8 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Nomadland rises with excellent reviews while Ammonite's are looking mixed at best. Acting nominations are likely the most the latter can hope for.

Ammonite needed stronger reviews for acting nods to happen imo. could play out like Mary Queen of Scots so maybe costume nods but that's not sure either

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Would be surprised if Nomadland doesn't win BP at this year's Oscars 

Edited by lorddemaxus

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Mank/Chicago7 might give Nomadland some competition. I'd wait and see if it wins the people's choice award at TIFF next week to see if it's also crowd-pleasing and not just a critics/prestige movie. Zhao is probably getting a director nom at this point tho so that's gonna incredible.

 

although if the only choices the Academy are left with are Nomadland or a Netflix movie. I agree the former would have better odds. but it's 7 months away so a lot could change. I hope Nomadland maintains its buzz. 

 

also Mank shouldn't release in Oct as that's way too early imo.

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McDormand and Zhao are very real win possibilities, but my hot take on the Best Picture in this particular year is that it is going to be something either very topical (Judas/Trial of Chicago 7) or pure escapism (The French Dispatch etc) and Nomadland doesn't quite hit either of them tbh.

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is The French Dispatch still contending for this season? a feb release is possible but if Searchlight want it to do box office numbers close to Anderson's previous films they might delay it further than the deadline.  

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I am very much against them delaying the Oscars but at a certain point you're running out of non-Netflix contenders then.

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New predictions:

 

1. Nomadland

2. The French Dispatch

3. Da 5 Bloods

4. Mank

5. Minari

6. The Father

7. The Trial of the Chicago 7

8. Pieces of a Woman

9. Good Joe Bell

10. One Night in Miami

-----------

11. Dune

12. Soul

13. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

14. Hillbilly Elegy

15. On the Rocks

 

Director:

 

1. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland

2. Wes Anderson, The French Dispatch

3. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods

4. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari

5. David Fincher, Mank

Alt: Kornel Mundruczo, Pieces of a Woman

 

Actor:

 

1. Anthony Hopkins, The Father

2. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods

3. Mark Wahlberg, Good Joe Bell

4. Steven Yeun, Minari

5. Shia LaBeouf, Pieces of a Woman

Alt: Gary Oldman, Mank

 

Actress:

 

1. Frances McDormand, Nomadland

2. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman

3. Olivia Colman, The Father

4. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

5. Ye-ri Han, Minari

Alt: Kate Winslet, Ammonite

 

Supporting Actor:

 

1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

2. David Strathairn, Nomadland

3. Clarke Peters, Da 5 Bloods

4. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7

5. Leslie Odom Jr., One Night in Miami

Alt: Reid Miller, Good Joe Bell

 

Supporting Actress:

 

1. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy

2. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy

3. Connie Britton, Good Joe Bell

4. Youn Yuh-Jung, Minari

5. Amanda Seyfried, Mank

Alt: Haley Bennett, Hillbilly Elegy

 

Original Screenplay:

 

1. The French Dispatch

2. Minari

3. Da 5 Bloods

4. Mank

5. The Trial of the Chicago 7

Alt: Pieces of a Woman

 

Adapted Screenplay:

 

1. Nomadland

2. The Father

3. One Night in Miami

4. Dune

5. Hillbilly Elegy

Alt: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

 

 

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Mark Wahlberg winning Best Actor the year after Parasite win and the same year as Zhao/Yeun nominations:

 

When you realize "Perfectly balanced, as all things should be" has exactly  half of its syllables on each side of the comma : thanosdidnothingwrong

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if soul is good and comes out this year, would be pretty surprised to see it miss screenplay

 

also, Zhao is excitingly looking good for Director

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Not to bag on Han's predictions (they are mostly good and he did a thorough and realistic job) but I have no reason to believe Pieces of a Woman is anything more than a Kirby play, especially since Netflix bought it. I'd certainly put One Night in Miami above it in Best Picture, given reviews and the dearth of black-led and non-Netflix movies.

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Gonna do a full set of predictions like Han. something like this

 

Picture:

 

1. Nomadland

2. Soul

3. Trial of the Chicago 7

4. Mank

5. News of the World

6. The Father

7. One Night in Miami

8. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

9. Judas and the Black Messiah

 

(not sure if #9 is coming out in time but i'm assuming Dune gets pushed and WB subs it in as their awards movie. it looks great and timely. Assuming also french dispatch won't make it out and Searchlight will just focus on Nomadland. Also there's been no news on Minari in a while so that's TBD for me. Da 5 Bloods feels like it might get forgotten idk.)

 

Director:

 

1. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland

2. David Fincher, Mank

3. Paul Greengrass, News of the World

4. Aaron Sorkin, Trial of the Chicago 7

5. Regina King, One Night in Miami

 

Actor:

1. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah

2. Anthony Hopkins, The Father

3. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods

4. Gary Oldman, Mank

5. Tom Hanks, News of the World

 

Actress:

1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

2. Frances McDormand, Nomadland

3. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman

4. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit

5. Jennifer Hudson, Respect

 

Supp. Actor

1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

2. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami

3. Leslie Odom Jr., One Night in Miami

4. David Strathairn, Nomadland

5. Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah

 

Supp. Actress:

1. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy

2. Amanda Seyfried, Mank

3. Olivia Colman, The Father

4. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman

5. Helena Zengal, News of the World

 

Original Screenplay

1. Soul

2. Trial of the Chicago 7

3. Mank

4. Judas and the Black Messiah

5. Da 5 Bloods

 

Adapted Screenplay

1. One Night in Miami

2. News of the World

3. Nomadland

4. The Father

5. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

 

 

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10 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

 

 

Original Screenplay

1. Soul

 

Adapted Screenplay

1. One Night in Miami

 

 

obviously i don't know anything but just wanna say if this ends up happening Kemp Powers will be the first person to win both screenplay Oscars in one year. I don't think nomadland wins best screenplay because it sounds like it's very much in the style of Zhao's other films, documentarian and semi-improvised.

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Just now, CoolioD1 said:

obviously i don't know anything but just wanna say if this ends up happening Kemp Powers will be the first person to win both screenplay Oscars in one year. I don't think nomadland wins best screenplay because it sounds like it's very much in the style of Zhao's other films, documentarian and semi-improvised.

i highly support this as a fan of playwrights and pixar; lets make it happen academy

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Best Picture

1. Nomadland

2. Mank

3. One Night in Miami

4. The Trial of the Chicago 7

5. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

6. The French Dispatch

7. Dune

8. The Father

9. News of the World

10. West Side Story

Alt(s): Hillbilly Elegy, Soul 

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Best Picture

 

1. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (call it a hunch)

2. Nomadland

3. French Dispatch (it is completed and a very logical February release)

4. One Night in Miami

5. News of the World

6. The Father

7. Judas and the Black Messiah (again, assuming release)

8. Soul

9. Respect (could be the first big hit back)

Alts: Da Five Bloods and Mank

 

Best Director

1. Chloe Zhao

2. Wes Anderson

3. George C. Wolfe

4. Regina King

5. Paul Greengrass

 

Best Actor

1. Daniel Kayuula

2. Tom Hanks

3. Anthony Hopkins

4. Delroy Lindo

5. Kingsley Ben-Adair

 

Best Actress

1. Jennifer Hudson

2. Frances McDormand

3. Viola Davis

4. Vanessa Kirby

5. Michelle Pfeiffer

 

Best Supporting Actor

1. Chadwick Boseman (category fraud)

2. David Stratharin

3. LaKeith Stanfield

4. Someone from French Dispatch (idk who is the lead of this shit)

5. Tom Burke

 

Best Supporting Actress

 

1. Helena Zengal

2. Someone from the French Dispatch (idk)

3. Rashida Jones

4. Olivia Colman

5. Ellyn Burstyn

 

I am not a believer in Trial of Chicago 7 (the photos + Sorkin = woof) or Hillbilly Elegy, though would love to be proven wrong on the former!!

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1 hour ago, Cmasterclay said:

Not to bag on Han's predictions (they are mostly good and he did a thorough and realistic job) but I have no reason to believe Pieces of a Woman is anything more than a Kirby play, especially since Netflix bought it. I'd certainly put One Night in Miami above it in Best Picture, given reviews and the dearth of black-led and non-Netflix movies.

 

tenor.gif?itemid=5026106

 

If Netflix has too many Oscar films and the academy chooses to be prideful and cancel their awards show because of it, I'll be very sad. I mean, that's great for the film itself! But the purchase increases the number of Netflix films. I do not want the Oscars to be canceled.

 

EDIT: And they also bought Bruised, a boxing film directed by Halle Berry, out of Toronto! Even if they're not showing films, they're definitely buying!

 

Anyways:

 

1) Nomadland

2) The Trial of the Chicago 7

3) Mank

4) On the Rocks

5) Dune

6) Soul

7) One Night in Miami

8 ) News of the World

Edited by SLAM!

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Picture:

Mank

Nomadland

Trial of the Chicago 7

French Dispatch

One Night in Miami

Dunc

Judas and the Black Messiah

News of the World

Da 5 Bloods

 

Director:

Fincher

Zhao

Sorkin

Anderson

King/Villeneuve

 

Actor

Daniel Kaluuya

Anthony Hopkins

Gary Oldman

Delroy Lindo

Someone from One Night in Miami

 

Actress

Viola Davis

Frances McDormand

Vanessa Kirby

Pffieffer

Hudson

 

Supp. Actor

Boseman

Yahya (Chicago 7)

Someone from One Night in Miami

David Strathairn

Jeremy Strong (Chicago 7)


idk enough about the supporting actress category to make predictions, or what’s original and what’s adapted

 

 

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why are people still predicting 9 best picture nominees??

 

I think we can only get max 8 this year, or even lower.

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after watching Nomadland (which I really liked) it feels like the type of film that would normally get ignored by major awards and fly under the radar for being a quiet heavy nature drama (think Leave No Trace or a Kelly Reichardt film). so I'm glad it's already getting insane traction & buzz by winning the golden lion. Those kinds of films don't get enough attention. I hope it does well in best picture but I wouldn't be shocked if the academy sleeps on it cus it's not a typical Oscar movie. 

 

 

 Best Picture 
 

1. Mank

2. Trial of the Chicago 7

3. Nomadland

4. One Night in Miami

5.  News of the World
6. Ma Rainey's black bottom

7. Soul
8. Judas and the Black Messiah

alt: 9. Da 5 Bloods/Respect/West Side Story

 

best director

 

1. David Fincher - Mank

2. Chloe Zhao - Nomadland
3. Aaron Sorkin - Trial of the Chicago 7

4. Paul Greengrass - News of the World

5. Regina King or Spike Lee 

Edited by RealLyre
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