Best Picture Predictions - 2020

[titanic2187]

Will Oscar have another non-English film in the best picture lineup for the 3rd consecutive year??

 

It is tricky to say given all the potential non-english are pretty buzzless pre-release stage. 

[Joel M]

1 hour ago, titanic2187 said:

It is tricky to say given all the potential non-english are pretty buzzless pre-release stage. 

 

It's impossible to say before Cannes and Venice. The three non-english movies that made it this decade won one of the big festivals first. 

[RealLyre]

Adam Driver is coming 

 

 

 

 

[CoolioD1]

I think The Last Duel is probably a likelier Adam Driver nod than a Leos Carax movie 

Edited February 22, 2020 by CoolioD1

[Jake Gittes]

19 hours ago, RealLyre said:

there's no way Mank gets snubbed, it'll be Netflix biggest push (unless it's poorly received, but when was the last time that happened to a Fincher film?), I COULD see a worse case scenario is that it will end up like the Irishman, multiple nominations across the boards but no wins) but even that is not likely because Fincher is an overdue director unlike Marty. from the current lineup I could really see him winning his long overdue best director award (unless something surprises from Cannes or TIFF and pulls a Parasite but chances for that to happen again are p slim).

 

is Macbeth even coming out this year? I don't think it started shooting yet. 

Macbeth began filming a couple weeks ago. IMDb has it listed for 2021 but e.g. True Grit started production in March and made Christmas so this easily could as well.

 

As for Fincher, I mean we know thus far the Oscars have only acknowledged him when he went atypically sentimental and then when he made the single most breathlessly acclaimed American movie in years. Generally his sensibility is too cold and abrasive for them. Mank has a number of advantages on its side but it's by no means locked even if it's quality.

[lorddemaxus]

19 hours ago, RealLyre said:

there's no way Mank gets snubbed, it'll be Netflix biggest push (unless it's poorly received, but when was the last time that happened to a Fincher film?), I COULD see a worse case scenario is that it will end up like the Irishman, multiple nominations across the boards but no wins) but even that is not likely because Fincher is an overdue director unlike Marty. from the current lineup I could really see him winning his long overdue best director award (unless something surprises from Cannes or TIFF and pulls a Parasite but chances for that to happen again are p slim).

 

 

is Macbeth even coming out this year? I don't think it started shooting yet. 

 

Minari sounds like it'll be this year''s The Farewell so it could go 50/50. if A24 don't have anything else to push, it might get in.  

 

 

On The Rocks is Apple's first real chance to prove itself as a streaming service that puts out quality movies that could contend for awards (since it'll get limited theatrical release too), it's co-produced by A24 and from acclaimed director Sofia Coppola.  

 

 

 

why do you think Blonde will happen? (besides it being a biopic and u being a fan of Ana) 

I've heard some chatter about Mank on the awardwatch forum and from what I've heard, it's a lot closer to Benjaman Button than his other films. Extremely middlebrow stuff. It might be a safe choice to win over older voters because they love these kinds of middlebrow movies (Darkest Hour, Green Book, Ford v Ferrari) but I think there will be a lot of backlash against it for being the worst Fincher movie. I could easily see it get a nom if it was being made by anybody other than Fincher but I feel like its going to dissapoint a lot of people (espescially critics) which will decrease its chances. I personally think the Academy will end up going with the more interesting movie related to Hollywood which is Blonde. I also think Da 5 Bloods will get the biggest push because it will be the best received Netflix film of the year (there were early screenings with some really good stuff being said). Yeah, its a risky prediction and it might be my own dissapointment that's playing a part here but I think it could happen.

 

Macbeth started filming earlier this month. It's 100% releasing by the end of the year.

 

I think The Farewell would have gotten in if Parasite wasn't such a huge player. I'm pretty sure most voters saw The Farewell as some sort of foreign film which messed its chances up. Minari probably isn't competing with a Parasite this year. I doubt we're even getting something like Roma.

 

Also, Apple will be doing the distribution and campaigning for On the Rocks and since this will be their first time campaigning an awards film, I just don't see them doing it as well as they would sometime in the future. I don't think any of the recent studios (Netflix, Neon, A24) managed to get a BP nominee the first year they tried pushing films for Oscars.

[RealLyre]

4 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

I've heard some chatter about Mank on the awardwatch forum and from what I've heard, it's a lot closer to Benjaman Button than his other films. Extremely middlebrow stuff. It might be a safe choice to win over older voters because they love these kinds of middlebrow movies (Darkest Hour, Green Book, Ford v Ferrari) but I think there will be a lot of backlash against it for being the worst Fincher movie. I could easily see it get a nom if it was being made by anybody other than Fincher but I feel like its going to dissapoint a lot of people (espescially critics) which will decrease its chances. I personally think the Academy will end up going with the more interesting movie related to Hollywood which is Blonde. I also think Da 5 Bloods will get the biggest push because it will be the best received Netflix film of the year (there were early screenings with some really good stuff being said). Yeah, its a risky prediction and it might be my own dissapointment that's playing a part here but I think it could happen.

I don't take early screenings leaks seriously so i have no opinion on your first paragraph but I'd be content with a Spike Lee film winning. 

 

 

7 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

 

 

Macbeth started filming earlier this month. It's 100% releasing by the end of the year.

 

I think The Farewell would have gotten in if Parasite wasn't such a huge player. I'm pretty sure most voters saw The Farewell as some sort of foreign film which messed its chances up. Minari probably isn't competing with a Parasite this year. I doubt we're even getting something like Roma.

 

 

in this case Macbeth is likely to be THE A24 movie that gets in. the cast is also Oscars friendly.  so A24 would focus its campaign on it more so than a super indie flick from Sundance. 

 

 

 

 

[CoolioD1]

yeah no way A24 can get two films nominated. they lost their main awards publicist to netflix two years ago which maybe explains why they've kinda flopped at the last two oscars. Joel Coen is easily the biggest director to make an A24 movie, Denzel is easily the biggest actor to do an A24 movie. so on name recognition alone they can push that one easily. but still i won't predict it until it's confirmed this year

Edited February 22, 2020 by CoolioD1

[lorddemaxus]

1 minute ago, RealLyre said:

I don't take early screenings leaks seriously so i have no opinion on your first paragraph but I'd be content with a Spike Lee film winning. 

It's not even about the opinion, its just regarding the kind of film it is. It's a very talky and dry film that might not show Fincher's directing abilities like OUATIH or even Darkest Hour did (the latter of which was also an actor's showcase). If Spielberg's name was attached to it, I could see it do well since its the kind of film Spielberg has been doing for the past decade but it is not the kind of film that Fincher has made. I just can see many people be dissapointed in it, espescially if the script itself is subpar.

[RealLyre]

20 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

I think The Last Duel is probably a likelier Adam Driver nod than a Leos Carax movie 

I don't disagree but im kinda rooting more for Annette cus it sounds like an interesting musical (will also be distributed by Amazon) and the plot for the Last Duel sounds too problematic for me to even get excited for, despite it starring some of my favorite actors. 

[RealLyre]

8 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

It's not even about the opinion, its just regarding the kind of film it is. It's a very talky and dry film that might not show Fincher's directing abilities like OUATIH or even Darkest Hour did (the latter of which was also an actor's showcase). If Spielberg's name was attached to it, I could see it do well since its the kind of film Spielberg has been doing for the past decade but it is not the kind of film that Fincher has made. I just can see many people be dissapointed in it, espescially if the script itself is subpar.

even if it was the safest Oscar bait Black & White film in the lineup, would it really miss a best picture nod? even Ford v Ferrari got in last year and that was an old people's movie. 

 

 

[lorddemaxus]

2 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

even if it was the safest Oscar bait Black & White film in the lineup, would it really miss a best picture nod? even Ford v Ferrari got in last year and that was an old people's movie. 

 

Like I said, I could easily see this film get in with a director who's known for making films like it or if it had something else pushing it (I guess there's the overdue narrative but imo not strong enough) but I just think this will be seen as a dissapointment by a lot because its not a Fincher type film. FvF got in but it was also a technical showcase. Maybe the Academy could align with the politics of the movie (since it also has a pretty political and relevant subplot)? 

[filmlover]

Mank seems more to the Academy's taste than either of Fincher's movies since his Oscar breakthrough on paper (though The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo did really well for itself with five nominations including a win for Editing). We'll see how the competition pans out for the top prize but at the very least should be good for another Gary Oldman nomination and a couple of techs.

[titanic2187]

Why everyone here sound like A24 is some ageing company like the Sony CLASSIC or the bankrupt Open Road?

 

A24 still make plenty of money through Uncut Gems and The farewell , the lighthouse, their come back in Oscar race would not be a difficult tasks  for them

[filmlover]

1 hour ago, titanic2187 said:

Why everyone here sound like A24 is some ageing company like the Sony CLASSIC or the bankrupt Open Road?

 

A24 still make plenty of money through Uncut Gems and The farewell , the lighthouse, their come back in Oscar race would not be a difficult tasks  for them

Sony Classics still gets a major contender every now and then too (Whiplash, Call Me by Your Name). Seems like all of the indie studios eventually have a dull period from time to time. 

[filmlover]

Also it seems like Netflix is starting to look into the IFC model for some of their theatrical titles.

 

https://www.indiewire.com/2020/02/netflix-theatrical-ambitions-hires-david-schwartz-box-office-1202212729/

[Cmasterclay]

I don't know if any of Nightmare Alley/MacBeth/O Russell (probably not gonna be a hit there anyway) are coming this year, but if they do MacBeth certainly seems like the most viable and interesting contender. Hillbilly Elegy is going to be a dumb movie based on a stupid, insidious book, directed by Ron Howard and extremely overwrought - but will probably be absolutely beloved by the Green Book crowd, so idk. In the Heights is a much stronger contender than West Side Story but Coolio already made my point. Something like Nomadland or Ammotite could win it this year if nothing bigger comes along. Honestly think things like Trial of the Chicago Seven and News of the World seem like CAYOM contenders that don't do as well today. The Last Duel....that premise, YIKES. Don't think we are ready for the Twitter takes on that one. Anyway, even though its Netflix, I actually am going with an early prediction of Da Five Bloods for Best Picture. Everyone loves Spike and it feels like it is his time now. Plus, unlike the other movies, we have at least a sense so far that this one will be quite good.

[SLAM!]

I have a hunch Sofia Coppola has something viable with On The Rocks. It's Apple's first serious Oscar contender, so we'll see if the film warrants a serious Oscar push, and if it does, we'll see how well Apple can campaign. I wouldn't mind another streaming service being successful at the awards game, and it's always helpful for certain films when studios pour everything into that one film as opposed to multiple films. I like Rashida Jones, especially from Parks and Recreation, so I'm really hoping she gets Best Actress traction. And if there's only one female director who deserves an Oscar splash this year, it's Sofia Coppola.

Edited February 23, 2020 by SLAM!

[RealLyre]

43 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

I don't know if any of Nightmare Alley/MacBeth/O Russell (probably not gonna be a hit there anyway) are coming this year, but if they do MacBeth certainly seems like the most viable and interesting contender. Hillbilly Elegy is going to be a dumb movie based on a stupid, insidious book, directed by Ron Howard and extremely overwrought - but will probably be absolutely beloved by the Green Book crowd, so idk. In the Heights is a much stronger contender than West Side Story but Coolio already made my point. Something like Nomadland or Ammotite could win it this year if nothing bigger comes along. Honestly think things like Trial of the Chicago Seven and News of the World seem like CAYOM contenders that don't do as well today. The Last Duel....that premise, YIKES. Don't think we are ready for the Twitter takes on that one. Anyway, even though its Netflix, I actually am going with an early prediction of Da Five Bloods for Best Picture. Everyone loves Spike and it feels like it is his time now. Plus, unlike the other movies, we have at least a sense so far that this one will be quite good.

Ammonite,  an indie British lesbian period piece winning best picture?  I don’t think it has any chance, I would be over the moon for just a best picture nomination, ( or Ronan’s overdue win, they like rewarding actresses around this age, and I hope she doesn’t become the next Amy Adams/Glenn Close.... she’s already at 4 noms without wins)

 

 

 

 

even Little Women couldn’t come close and it was one of the best period pieces released recently.

Edited February 23, 2020 by RealLyre
Word

[RealLyre]

6 minutes ago, SLAM! said:

I have a hunch Sofia Coppola has something viable with On The Rocks. It's Apple's first serious Oscar contender, so we'll see if the film warrants a serious Oscar push, and if it does, we'll see how well Apple can campaign. I wouldn't mind another streaming service being successful at the awards game, and it's always helpful for certain films when studios pour everything into that one film as opposed to multiple films. I like Rashida Jones, especially from Parks and Recreation, so I'm really hoping she gets Best Actress traction. And if there's only one female director who deserves an Oscar splash this year, it's Sofia Coppola.

Besides Nomadland and On the Rocks, are there any high profile (non-blockbuster) female directed films coming this year? 
 

i could only think of First Cow from A24 but it looks too weird and “Never Rarely Always Sometimes” from Eliza Hittman that gained traction at Sundance but it sounds too indie.

 

Emma. had a great showing from Anya but released too early.