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Best Picture Predictions - 2020

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17 hours ago, RealLyre said:

is The French Dispatch still contending for this season? a feb release is possible but if Searchlight want it to do box office numbers close to Anderson's previous films they might delay it further than the deadline.  

With Nomadland being a sure-fire contender now it wouldn't be much of a surprise if they decide to put all of their eggs into that basket and delay The French Dispatch to next summer following a Cannes debut.

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Judas is a wildcard because it was never scheduled for an awards-friendly date before the pandemic (late August) and "2021" is still vague as hell. We'll see what happens

 

and yeah the more I'm reading about Pieces of a Woman it feels like a fringe contender. Kirby should be likely though

Edited by WrathOfHan
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I think Kornél Mundruczó is probably in the top ten of Best Director candidates for Pieces of a Woman. There's a lot of showy one-takes. And the academy did nominate Pawel Pawlikowski, so this might become a similar situation. I'll break down the last two years:

 

- Roma wins three Oscars, almost Best Picture

- Cold War nominated for three, Never Look Away surprises in Cinematography

- Antonio Banderas gets into Best Actor in a crowded field of excellent choices

- Parasite wins four including Picture and Director

 

American films and directors still have the advantage (obviously), but we have an academy that's willing to dabble into artistic/foreign filmmaking if a narrative shows itself. Mundruczó could become a beneficiary of the dabbling, especially during a year with a limited range of contenders.

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On 9/12/2020 at 4:39 AM, SLAM! said:

In other good awards news, excellent choices for submissions to the International category are starting to emerge from the festivals. Neon (Parasite) acquired the rights to Night of the Kings from Ivory Coast. Then there's Apples from Greece, which is a huge festival hit, and there's also Tove, which is a biopic from Finland. If the Oscars happen, the International category is likely to have a lot of good films in it. Will there be another Parasite? Not this year. But the foreign films will be remarkable nonetheless.

speaking of the international category. Another Round by Thomas Vinterberg was among the best films I've seen so far at TIFF. great performance by mads mikkelsen.

I think it  would surely get in the international feature race if Denmark submits it. Vinterberg/Mikkelsen's previous collaboration was nominated back in 2012 for The Hunt so that should help.

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6 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

speaking of the international category. Another Round by Thomas Vinterberg was among the best films I've seen so far at TIFF. great performance by mads mikkelsen.

I think it  would surely get in the international feature race if Denmark submits it. Vinterberg/Mikkelsen's previous collaboration was nominated back in 2012 for The Hunt so that should help.

 

Another Round would be a fantastic film in the International category! I don't think there's any big competition for Denmark's selection, either. I think it might win, to be honest, since it's somewhat of a feel-good film! And it's a long shot, but maybe Mads Mikkelsen could gain traction for Best Actor(?).

Edited by SLAM!
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1 hour ago, SLAM! said:

I think Kornél Mundruczó is probably in the top ten of Best Director candidates for Pieces of a Woman. There's a lot of showy one-takes. And the academy did nominate Pawel Pawlikowski, so this might become a similar situation. I'll break down the last two years:

 

- Roma wins three Oscars, almost Best Picture

- Cold War nominated for three, Never Look Away surprises in Cinematography

- Antonio Banderas gets into Best Actor in a crowded field of excellent choices

- Parasite wins four including Picture and Director

 

American films and directors still have the advantage (obviously), but we have an academy that's willing to dabble into artistic/foreign filmmaking if a narrative shows itself. Mundruczó could become a beneficiary of the dabbling, especially during a year with a limited range of contenders.

Pieces isn’t a foreign film lmao

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1 hour ago, WrathOfHan said:

Pieces isn’t a foreign film lmao

 

It's a foreign director, though. I'm just saying that I find Pieces of a Woman's situation comparable to a Cold War situation or a Pain & Glory situation. It's an artsy festival favorite that can sneak into categories if it finds fans within the academy. It's the rare "American" film that possesses the raw strength of a foreign film, and it seems to be garnering the necessary raves. So yeah, it's not foreign per se, but I'm just finding a lot of parallels within it. And yeah, it goes without saying that I'm super gung ho about the film's chances; the director can get in, Vanessa Kirby can get into Lead, Ellen Burnstyn can get into Supporting. Yeah, I'm optimistic about it.

Edited by SLAM!

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it's reviews are no where near as good as the other films you've mentioned. probably just acting nods at best.

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Pieces of a Woman is not getting anything major outside of a Best Actress nom. Gonna be this year's The Wife/Harriet.

Edited by lorddemaxus

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Pieces of a woman sounds too dark to even get noticed by the Academy. I might watch it later this week but it’s giving me Toni Collette/Hereditary vibes. but in a more average movie according to the reactions 

Edited by RealLyre

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Good Joe Bell apparently falls right into Green Book syndrome. Depending who picks it up, it's definitely not going away :sparta:

 

Also based on the trailer I don't see how Colman is supporting in The Father unless they fraud her there.

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Reviews are looking pretty solid across the board for Good Joe Bell aside from Variety (which completely panned it) with many calling Wahlberg's best performance in many years. Would make sense for someone like Focus to pick it up, especially after the success they previously enjoyed with the writers on Brokeback Mountain.

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Honestly the kind of movie that actually wins Oscars lol

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yeah Good Joe Bell sounds like the Green Book of LGBT Films :rolleyes:. it doesn't have a distributor yet but if it wins or finishes in top 3 at TIFF audience award it could be a contender now. weird choice to cast Mark Wahlberg for such a role. the kid seem to be getting a lot of praise.

 

 

 

 

Edited by RealLyre
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10 hours ago, RealLyre said:

yeah Good Joe Bell sounds like the Green Book of LGBT Films :rolleyes:. it doesn't have a distributor yet but if it wins or finishes in top 3 at TIFF audience award it could be a contender now. weird choice to cast Mark Wahlberg for such a role. the kid seem to be getting a lot of praise.

 

 

 

 

Maybe it's Wahlberg's way to atone for his past... I noticed that in Patriots Day, he had his (fictional) character shown being very patient and supportive of the real Asian man who got carjacked by the bombers. Didn't he decline the chance to be in Brokeback Mountain back in the day because he didn't want to play gay? It was a different time and I'm not sure had the chops back then anyway, but in hindsight, not a good look. Good for him that he's evolved.

 

But the thinkpieces and Film Twitter, if, following our Year of Reckoning About  Racism/Systemic Injustices, plus the Academy's new inclusivity standards, Best Actor ends up going to Marky Mark playing a straight guy in "the Green Book of LGBTQ movies", which also wins Best Picture...el oh el forever and ever... It seems like such an AMPAS move that I almost want to bet money on it. 

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2 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

 

 

 

 

Nomadland shot to the top spot of Oscar 2020.

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yeah if Nomadland is crowd-pleasing enough for TIFF audience award it will probably be crowd-pleasing enough for the voters, best picture win is back on the table

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Three time Oscar winner Frances McDormand here we come? Although if Ma Rainey lives up to the buzz Viola Davis could give her competition and win her second.

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