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filmlover

Best Picture Predictions - 2020

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4 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Three time Oscar winner Frances McDormand here we come? Although if Ma Rainey lives up to the buzz Viola Davis could give her competition and win her second.

she's also a producer on Nomadland so she could win 2 Oscars this year 

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also yeah the Father only had 3 hour window to screen online (while everything else was open for 24 hours) and had just 1 drive-in screening. Sony Pictures Classic sabotaging themselves I guess. I still think it will win lead actor but with more buzz it could have a shot at screenplay too

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TIFF is not determined by number of votes, it’s determined by the percentage of people viewed who wanted to vote for it. So The Father being underscreened would not necessarily prevent it from winning; the people who DID see it just must’ve chose not to vote for it

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10 hours ago, RealLyre said:

also yeah the Father only had 3 hour window to screen online (while everything else was open for 24 hours) and had just 1 drive-in screening. Sony Pictures Classic sabotaging themselves I guess. I still think it will win lead actor but with more buzz it could have a shot at screenplay too

 

If they campaign Olivia Colman for Best Actress and their NYFF film French Exit gains traction for Michelle Pfeiffer, I don't know what Sony Pictures Classics is going to do.

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Golden Globe Speculation

 

Each year, there's the divide between Drama and Comedy/Musical that can strengthen the awareness of a film in the eyes of the Academy. I'm really curious, so I'll try and differentiate between films are definitely drama, films that are definitely comedy/musical, and films that could go either way.

 

I think the Golden Globes have a fruitful amount of films at their disposal. They've been willing to "do the research" for deserving nominees in the past--like Mark Ruffalo for Infinitely Polar Bear and Rosamund Pike for A Private War--so hopefully they take this quieter year to nominate performances that, you know, aren't as lazy as a Cate Blanchett nomination for Where'd You Go, Bernadette. I believe in their ability to give attention to some interesting stuff.

 

Drama vs. Comedy Speculation

Spoiler

Drama (the easier list to make XD)

Ammonite

Bruised

Da 5 Bloods

The Father

Good Joe Bell

I Care a Lot

I'm Thinking Of Ending Things (at least nominate Jessie Buckley, please)

Judas and the Black Messiah

The Life Ahead (not sure if it's foreign)

Mank

News of the World

Nomadland

One Night in Miami

Pieces of a Woman

Sound of Metal

Stillwater

The Trial of the Chicago 7

Those Who Wish Me Dead

The World To Come

[big-budgets like Dune and Tenet]

 

Comedy/Musical

An American Pickle (Seth Rogen for actor, idk)

Birds of Prey (and the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn)

The Boys in the Band (it'd be a comedy in the same way that Knives Out is a comedy judging from the trailer)

Downhill

Emma

Everybody's Talking About Jamie

The Eyes of Tammy Faye (if released)

The French Dispatch (if released)

French Exit [*wikipedia lists this as a surreal comedy*]

The Half Of It

Kajillionaire

The King of Staten Island

Next Goal Wins (if released)

On The Rocks

Palm Springs (!!)

The Personal History of David Copperfield [Dev Patel is an easy nominee here]

The Prom

West Side Story

[Another Round--Mads Mikkelsen for Comedy Actor, because while foreign films aren't in the picture categories, the actors can be nominated, as what happened last year with Antonio Banderas and Awkwafina]

 

I'm Not Sure Yet

Hillbilly Elegy (could be a Green Book)

Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (song numbers(?))

Minari 

Respect (song numbers (?))

The United States vs. Billie Holiday (song numbers (?))

 

My Lead Acting Category Predictions

Spoiler

Lead Actor in a Drama

Most of the 'top dog' candidates happen to be in drama this year. Nothing wrong with that; that's just the way the cookie crumbled. My predictions are:

- Tom Hanks, News of the World

- Anthony Hopkins, The Father

- Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods

- Gary Oldman, Mank

- Mark Wahlberg, Good Joe Bell

 

Lead Actress in a Drama

Again, the cookie crumbles toward drama more than it does toward comedy/musical. My predictions are:

- Olivia Colman, The Father (whether she's lead or supporting at the Oscars, she'll be lead here)

- Viola Davis, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (if the film's drama, which from the spoilers, the story events should land it in drama)

- Frances McDormand, Nomadland

- Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman

- Kate Winslet, Ammonite

 

Lead Actor in a Comedy (and if they nominate Elgort, I'll never watch the Golden Globes again, 'cuz they have plenty of other options...)

- Pete Davidson, The King of Staten Island

- Mads Mikkelsen, Another Round

- Bill Murray, On The Rocks (whether he's lead or supporting at the Oscars, he'll be lead here)

- Jim Parsons, The Boys in the Band

- Dev Patel, The Personal History of David Copperfield

 

Lead Actress in a Comedy

Rashida Jones, On The Rocks

Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit (she has no competition 😂)

Margot Robbie, Birds of Prey (and the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn)

Meryl Streep, The Prom

Anya Taylor-Joy, Emma

 

Edited by SLAM!
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46 minutes ago, SLAM! said:

Golden Globe Speculation

 

Each year, there's the divide between Drama and Comedy/Musical that can strengthen the awareness of a film in the eyes of the Academy. I'm really curious, so I'll try and differentiate between films are definitely drama, films that are definitely comedy/musical, and films that could go either way.

 

I think the Golden Globes have a fruitful amount of films at their disposal. They've been willing to "do the research" for deserving nominees in the past--like Mark Ruffalo for Infinitely Polar Bear and Rosamund Pike for A Private War--so hopefully they take this quieter year to nominate performances that, you know, aren't as lazy as a Cate Blanchett nomination for Where'd You Go, Bernadette. I believe in their ability to give attention to some interesting stuff.

 

Drama vs. Comedy Speculation

Spoiler
  Reveal hidden contents

 

My Lead Acting Category Predictions

Spoiler
  Reveal hidden contents

 

Respect, The Boys in the Band, and Ma Rainey will all go Drama. Musical biopics have been going Drama (and winning there) in recent years unless they really go all in on the musical element like Rocketman did. Don't have anything much to go on for the Billie Holiday biopic but it'll likely go there too. By all accounts Hillbilly Elegy is gonna be put there as well.

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https://www.indiewire.com/2020/09/tiff-2020-critics-survey-toronto-best-films-performances-nomadland-1234587953/

 

Nomadland and One Night in Miami are in the top 2 in the TIFF critics ranking too. Vanessa Kirby is at the top for best performance. I guess she's gonna get a nomination from the critics buzz but I don't see her role (or the movie itself) being academy friendly enough for her to be a frontrunner.

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12 hours ago, Cmasterclay said:

Trial of the Chicago 7 is getting excellent notices (no reviews but lots of tweets from credible critics). Probably an across the board contender but no clear acting standout in crowded cast.

If it becomes a major contender an acting nom or two doesn't seem that big of a stretch, especially with a cast this stacked with award winners (including two Emmy winners from this past Sunday) and nominees. Spotlight and The Big Short feel like good comparisons given their similar ensemble nature.

Edited by filmlover
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not related to the Oscars but the BAFTAs are increasing the nominations for certain categories and bringing back longlists.

 

 

 

Quote

Among the key changes to the BAFTA Film Awards 2021 are:

- A new longlisting round of voting in all categories, making three rounds in total and giving members a longer time period to watch films. It will now also be compulsory for members to watch all longlisted films in the second round before voting. Following the nominations controversy in January, it was argued that many voters simply weren’t watching the lesser-known films.
- In the acting categories, the number of nominees is being increased from five to six. Actors can also now not be longlisted more than once in a particular category, but can appear in separate categories for separate performances. (In 2020, Margot Robbie appeared twice in the best supporting actress category).
- In the directing category, BAFTA’s directing chapter will rank the top 20, with the top eight female and top eight male directors making the longlist. A special jury will then select the final four directors for this longlist of 20, choosing two female and two male (from the next 10 ranked respectively). The number of final nominees will also increase from five to six.
- In the outstanding British film category, the number of nominations has jumped from six to 10, a move that should help alleviate previous concerns where major Hollywood titles (such as 1917 and Rocketman) have taken up nomination slots over independent British features. “10 will reach down to some considerably smaller, but brilliant films,” said Samuelson, adding that some of the feedback had been that they wanted the ceremony to feel more distinctly British. “And we think this is a really key way of doing that.”
- In an effort to prevent films with larger campaigning budgets from “dominating the conversation,” BAFTA will be discontinuing DVD screeners by 2020 and moving all films to its new BAFTA View digital platform, set to launch for the 2021 awards season. Distributor communication will also be further limited per title, with members now having to opt-in to receive DVDs, attend screening invites or receive trade publications during awards season.

 

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https://www.indiewire.com/2020/09/the-french-dispatch-oscars-2021-1234588501/

 

Early word that The French Dispatch might not come out in time for the deadline and will be saved for a potential Cannes debut. Man, the Comedy/Musical category at the Globes this year became really empty these past few days if so. Congrats to Ryan Murphy and Netflix, I guess?

Edited by filmlover
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2 hours ago, RealLyre said:

Chicago 7 reviews are not as good as I hoped :(. should still get nominated across the board. but I doubt it'll be a frontrunner for anything. 

Huh? Reviews are pretty good and the movie could win if it gets a lot of support from the actors branch (which I think it will). I think this will be the film that gets huge industry support while Nomadland will be the critics darling. I think it's a frontrunner.

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1 hour ago, lorddemaxus said:

Huh? Reviews are pretty good and the movie could win if it gets a lot of support from the actors branch (which I think it will). I think this will be the film that gets huge industry support while Nomadland will be the critics darling. I think it's a frontrunner.

idk i was hoping it would be more universally liked. it seems like the direction is the blandest part of the movie so Sorkin's chances for director are very slim and at best he might only get a nom (Green Book missed a director nod too iirc). so its pathway to best picture would be through SAG Ensemble/Screenplay wins which might happen as everyone agrees that it's super Oscar friendly and like u said it will have industry support but I'm reluctant to put it as a frontrunner anywhere esp. when Mank will also probably be Oscar friendly and will get better reviews so Netflix will prioritize it. the industry also loves Fincher

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34 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

idk i was hoping it would be more universally liked. it seems like the direction is the blandest part of the movie so Sorkin's chances for director are very slim and at best he might only get a nom (Green Book missed a director nod too iirc). so its pathway to best picture would be through SAG Ensemble/Screenplay wins which might happen as everyone agrees that it's super Oscar friendly and like u said it will have industry support but I'm reluctant to put it as a frontrunner anywhere esp. when Mank will also probably be Oscar friendly and will get better reviews so Netflix will prioritize it. the industry also loves Fincher

I think Netflix is perfectly capable of campaigning two films at once. And a 91% on RT means it's universally well liked. Just not universally well-loved.

 

I also think it's gonna have a lot of relevance (which is usually something that helps, even if it's executed badly like with Green Book and Crash) 

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I feel more and more, it's got to be a feel good movie that wins. This has been such a bleak year. I see the Academy wanting to award a fuzzy feeling film. What does that leave us with? Will Soul potentially have a chance at winning?

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44 minutes ago, CloneWars said:

I feel more and more, it's got to be a feel good movie that wins. This has been such a bleak year. I see the Academy wanting to award a fuzzy feeling film. What does that leave us with? Will Soul potentially have a chance at winning?

Not much, with the way almost everyone who isn't Netflix is moving their movies past even the extended deadline of February 28 this year. Wouldn't be much of a surprise if the industry decided to just not have an Oscars this year at that point, especially in a year where the movie theater industry is really hurting.

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