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Best Picture Predictions - 2020

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5 hours ago, filmlover said:

If Hillbilly Elegy turns out bad that'll sting for poor Close since this seemed like the one year where it seemed like it was finally gonna be Her Moment. :lol:

 

Wouldn't be surprised though, pretty sure it's the only remaining major Netflix title that doesn't have either a date or official stills released.

Close will be nominated but lose to Colman. It’s in the stars

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On 10/9/2020 at 12:26 PM, SLAM! said:

I think people might be sleeping on Respect. I have a nagging feeling that it'll be better than people are anticipating it to be. If it's as good as Bohemian Rhapsody, then it has an easy way into the race.

I was coming in here to say this exact thing! I still have Hudson top of my list for Best Actress, even over McDormand.

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jennifer hudson having two oscars would be pretty wild when she's probably the worst actor to ever win an oscar. at least bottom 5.

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https://variety.com/2020/film/reviews/french-exit-review-michelle-pfeiffer-1234800071/

https://www.theguardian.com/film/2020/oct/10/french-exit-review-michelle-pfeiffer

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/french-exit-film-review-nyff-2020

https://www.indiewire.com/2020/10/french-exit-review-michelle-pfeiffer-lucas-hedges-1234591970/

 

French Exit premieres at NYFF. Reviews are divisive, especially on Letterboxd. The film has many vocal fans (as well as vocal detractors) and has drawn comparisons to Wes Anderson (albeit darker in tone and more surreal). Michelle Pfeiffer and Lucas Hedges both receive praise from critics for their performances.

Edited by SLAM!

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Soul could have a real shot, but the double whammy of Pixar snubs/Disney+ could hurt it. The reviews are there for it though, especially in a thin field.

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Soul sounds like a step down from Inside Out but I still think it can get into screenplay/picture 

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6 hours ago, Cmasterclay said:

Soul could have a real shot, but the double whammy of Pixar snubs/Disney+ could hurt it. The reviews are there for it though, especially in a thin field.

Given that they probably want to salvage the Oscars this year however much they can, being on Disney+ and being one of the few movies once set to hit the screens in 2020 that actually came out at all is likely not a setback when you add the acclaim into the mix.

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Hillbilly Elegy looks like it will be the most bait-y film from Netflix acting wise this year, I don't think it will get good reviews (it should be fine awards wise with 50-60 MC)  but Glenn Close is def happening and older voters will probably eat it up so a filler BP nomination wouldn't surprise me.

 

 

I hope the whole movie isn't just screaming, yelling and crying though :ph34r:

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I am not into the idea of  Oscar cancellation.

 

What I would prefer is downsizing, maybe reduce the BP nominees to five and every other categories to three

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I think out of all of the traditional distribution companies, Sony Pictures Classics is in one of the most interesting positions. In most years, they're a quieter entity in the Oscar game--though in years like 2014, they're able to appear across the board.

 

Their 2014 was eccentric--they had Whiplash (which won three), Foxcatcher (which appeared in many important categories), Mr. Turner (which quietly amassed four tech noms), two foreign nominees (Leviathan and Wild Tales), and, of course, Still Alice (with which thet utilized the overdue narrative to propel Julianne Moore to a win). It can be argued as to whether 2014 was a strong year as a whole, but when it came to the Oscars, SPC was a huge presence.

 

This year, SPC will have three films with huge potential: The Father, French Exit, and Nine Days. With The Father, they have Anthony Hopkins, Olivia Colman, and Adapted Screenplay. With French Exit, they have Michelle Pfeiffer, Lucas Hedges, and, again, Adapted Screenplay--not to mention all the Golden Globes noms it'll get for being one of the season's only viable comedies. Look at how they're able to allocate and consolidate:

 

- Hopkins is the Lead Actor push

- Pfeiffer is the Lead Actress push

- Hedges is the Supporting Actor push

- Colman is the Supporting Actress push

 

So they basically have a performance for each acting category within the span of two films. To me, that's astounding. And then, there's Nine Days--after that trailer, I think Nine Days is an easy competitor for Original Screenplay, with Winston Duke running as a fringe (top ten) competitor for Actor. And they also have The Climb, as well as a few documentaries here and there.

 

I'm very optimistic about Sony Pictures Classics this year, and I'm hoping that the act of releasing in theaters provides goodwill for the films themselves. I also think that SPC's spotty (yet significant) record is a glowing suggestion that nominations can be less about the campaigns themselves and more about whether elements of the film are campaignable to begin with. I love this season...

Edited by SLAM!

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42 minutes ago, SLAM! said:

I think out of all of the traditional distribution companies, Sony Pictures Classics is in one of the most interesting positions. In most years, they're a quieter entity in the Oscar game--though in years like 2014, they're able to appear across the board.

 

Their 2014 was eccentric--they had Whiplash (which won three), Foxcatcher (which appeared in many important categories), Mr. Turner (which quietly amassed four tech noms), two foreign nominees (Leviathan and Wild Tales), and, of course, Still Alice (with which thet utilized the overdue narrative to propel Julianne Moore to a win). It can be argued as to whether 2014 was a strong year as a whole, but when it came to the Oscars, SPC was a huge presence.

 

This year, SPC will have three films with huge potential: The Father, French Exit, and Nine Days. With The Father, they have Anthony Hopkins, Olivia Colman, and Adapted Screenplay. With French Exit, they have Michelle Pfeiffer, Lucas Hedges, and, again, Adapted Screenplay--not to mention all the Golden Globes noms it'll get for being one of the season's only viable comedies. Look at how they're able to allocate and consolidate:

 

- Hopkins is the Lead Actor push

- Pfeiffer is the Lead Actress push

- Hedges is the Supporting Actor push

- Colman is the Supporting Actress push

 

So they basically have a performance for each acting category within the span of two films. To me, that's astounding. And then, there's Nine Days--after that trailer, I think Nine Days is an easy competitor for Original Screenplay, with Winston Duke running as a fringe (top ten) competitor for Actor. And they also have The Climb, as well as a few documentaries here and there.

 

I'm very optimistic about Sony Pictures Classics this year, and I'm hoping that the act of releasing in theaters provides goodwill for the films themselves. I also think that SPC's spotty (yet significant) record is a glowing suggestion that nominations can be less about the campaigns themselves and more about whether elements of the film are campaignable to begin with. I love this season...

It is weird Sony Picture Classic hasn't got any Best Picture Oscar winner but it peers like ex-Miramix, Fox searchlight, focus feature, dreamwork all have one at least already.

 

Their biggest Oscar victory to me was Crouching tiger hidden dragon, their biggest bet in their history  

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After watching French Exit and Nine Days, SPC would be better off prioritizing the latter as their secondary push. French Exit is divisive and has few passionate supporters, and I really don’t see how AMPAS voters will go for its pacing. Pfeiffer is a fringe Actress contender (I wouldn’t predict her atm). Idk if it’ll go anywhere, but Nine Days is probably more in line with voter appeal.

Edited by WrathOfHan
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French Exit and Nine Days getting anything seems like a doubt. French Exit seems too quirky for the industry and not compelling enough for critics for it to get enough support. Actress, Adapted Screenplay (which will be filled with Best Picture noms), and supporting actor are pretty competitive. Best shot is probably Actress since Pfeiffer's performance seems to be the main talking point about the film, but still pretty unlikely.

 

Nine Days is a pretty slow paced, minimalist film and Original Screenplay is also competitive. There's Mank, Trial, Soul, Minari, Da 5 Bloods, and Judas and the Black Messiah that seem more likely. Would put Promising Young Woman above too because it's a pretty showy screenplay.

 

The Father seems like a good bet though. On top of noms for Hopkins (who has a chance at even winning) and Colman, Picture and Adapted Screenplay are likely. Maybe director too.

Edited by lorddemaxus
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Watched Trial of Chicago 7 - lock for screenplay and SAG ensemble and probably Picture, but there's not one single performance that gets enough shine for me to think who would get an Oscar nomination - I guess Baron Cohen would be my best guess, though Rylance also has a shot. Can also see it missing Director - it looks like a TV pilot.

 

I feel like Hopkins and Boseman are as prohibitive as favorites at this point as anyone in awhile - and unless Viola Davis or Hudson blows away, McDormand is gonna be hard to beat too. Supporting Actress, idk.

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I know it's not out yet, but I'm thinking Borat 2 might get a nod. It's a comedy and with 2020 being such a down year, I can see a comedy getting in.

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3 hours ago, CloneWars said:

I know it's not out yet, but I'm thinking Borat 2 might get a nod. It's a comedy and with 2020 being such a down year, I can see a comedy getting in.

This would be really interesting/surprising to see, but I like the idea of it happening. 

 

Does anyone know if there's a Best Director 2020 thread? 

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2 hours ago, JamesCameronScholar said:

This would be really interesting/surprising to see, but I like the idea of it happening. 

 

Does anyone know if there's a Best Director 2020 thread? 

 

I went ahead and made the director thread!

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