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Best Picture Predictions - 2020

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After seeing the News of the World trailer I think it's the only contender that looks like a BP winner if it's any good. Both Nomadland and Mank seem to me different kinds of too niche to win BP. It 'll have to get good reviews though.

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Nomadland has little to no chance of winning bp for obvious reasons but Mank could still do it ( like the Artist in 2011). I think it will be between Mank, News of the World and Chicago 7. (Judas has a shot too if it makes the deadline but it has no release date yet so)

 

Nomadland and the Father being 2 of the best movies of the year getting nominated but winning nothing meaningful will be disappointing to see but it would mirror Little Women/Irishman and Marriage Story to an extent from last year.

Edited by RealLyre
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Matt Neglia and Clayton Davis are implying pretty bad things about Hillbilly Elegy. And Neglia especially is an easy to please critic. Even a supporting nom for Close might not happen. Colman for the win?

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3 hours ago, lorddemaxus said:

Matt Neglia and Clayton Davis are implying pretty bad things about Hillbilly Elegy. And Neglia especially is an easy to please critic. Even a supporting nom for Close might not happen. Colman for the win?

 

I think in a Glenn Close absence, Amanda Seyfried and Youn Yuh-Jung both stand a chance of making it an interesting race against Olivia Colman--but that's beside the point. I think if the film does indeed receive negative press, it'll be all too easy for the Academy to write it off. With the amount of films Netflix has at their disposal, they're probably searching for what not to campaign just as much as what to campaign. Bad reviews will just make that decision easier. All the sounds-good-on-paper qualities and all the schmaltzy Oscar clip trailers won't be able to help if the film fails to deliver. Its nomination, in that circumstance, would become another Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close, and I think many Academy members would recognize that. I welcome poor reviews; I'd rather Netflix's campaign money be spent on Mank, Chicago 7, Pieces of a Woman, and a Delroy Lindo nomination, among other more significant things.

Edited by SLAM!
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supporting actress is so weak this year that I can see Close getting nominated even with a 40s MC. although I wouldn't be sure of her winning as much as pundits were initially thinking.

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6 hours ago, lorddemaxus said:

Matt Neglia and Clayton Davis are implying pretty bad things about Hillbilly Elegy. And Neglia especially is an easy to please critic. Even a supporting nom for Close might not happen. Colman for the win?

This year is so dead that the early buzz for Close might be enough to get her in even if the movie gets bad reviews. That said, if what was supposed to finally be Her Moment turns out to be Olivia Colman's twice in a row who knows how she'll react lmao.

 

Glenn Close GIFs | Tenor

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38 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

 

 

*jack nicholson nodding.gif"

 

List of Films Still Under Embargo

Hillbilly Elegy

Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

Mank (most likely reference)

News of the World (2nd most likely reference)

Respect (you never know...)

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Oh he said in the replies that it was a "career-defining work from a major director" - so, Mank, unless Greengrass is more well-liked or more major than I consider him.

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10 hours ago, Cmasterclay said:

Oh he said in the replies that it was a "career-defining work from a major director" - so, Mank, unless Greengrass is more well-liked or more major than I consider him.

 

Calling Mank career-defining though doesn't jive, since it seems quite different from Fincher's career to date. It'd be more of career-expanding.

 

 

News of the World seems closer to encapsulating Greengrass' career on the other hand.

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New predictions now that I've seen all the major films from virtual festivals outside of The Father:

 

Picture:

 

1. Nomadland

2. The Trial of the Chicago 7

3. Mank

4. One Night in Miami

5. The Father

6. Minari

7. Soul

8. News of the World

9. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

10. Promising Young Woman

Alt: Da 5 Bloods

 

Director:

 

1. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland

2. David Fincher, Mank

3. Regina King, One Night in Miami

4. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari

5. Paul Greengrass, News of the World

Alt: Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7

 

Actor:

 

1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

2. Anthony Hopkins, The Father

3. Gary Oldman, Mank

4. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods

5. Steven Yeun, Minari

Alt: Eddie Redmayne, The Trial of the Chicago 7

 

Actress:

 

1. Frances McDormand, Nomadland

2. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman

3. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

4. Jennifer Hudson, Respect

5. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman

Alt: Kate Winslet, Ammonite

 

Supporting Actor:

 

1. Leslie Odom Jr., One Night in Miami

2. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7

3. Bill Murray, On the Rocks

4. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7

5. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami

Alt: Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah

 

Supporting Actress:

 

1. Olivia Colman, The Father

2. Amanda Seyfried, Mank

3. Youn Yuh-jung, Minari

4. Maria Bakalova, Borat: Subsequent Moviefilm

5. Helena Zengel, News of the World

Alt: Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman

 

Original Screenplay:

 

1. Mank

2. The Trial of the Chicago 7

3. Soul

4. Minari

5. Promising Young Woman

Alt: On the Rocks

 

Adapted Screenplay:

 

1. The Father

2. One Night in Miami

3. Nomadland

4. News of the World

5. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

Alt: Borat: Subsequent Moviefilm

 

Edited by WrathOfHan
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1 hour ago, CoolioD1 said:

it's mank. a bunch of critics saw mank this past week. don't overthink it.

Tbf, there were a bunch of Hillbilly Elegy screenings in the UK this week too. Total Film writer hinted at that and a writer for The Independent also rated the film this week.

Edited by lorddemaxus
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https://awardswatch.com/critics-choice-documentary-awards-crip-camp-gunda-mr-soul-lead-nominations/

 

Critics Choice Documentary Awards Nominees

Spoiler

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Athlete A (Netflix)
Belushi (Showtime)
Crip Camp: A Disability Revolution (Netflix)
Dick Johnson is Dead (Netflix)
Feels Good Man (Wavelength Productions/PBS Independent Lens)
The Fight (Magnolia Pictures)
The Go-Go’s (Showtime)
Gunda (Neon)
Mr. SOUL! (Shoes in the Bed Productions)
My Octopus Teacher (Netflix)
The Painter and the Thief (Neon)
A Secret Love (Netflix)
The Social Dilemma (Netflix)
Time (Amazon Studios)

 

BEST DIRECTOR
Garrett Bradley, Time (Amazon Studios)
Bonni Cohen and Jon Shenk, Athlete A (Netflix)
Kirsten Johnson, Dick Johnson is Dead (Netflix)
Victor Kossakovsky, Gunda (Neon)
James Lebrecht and Nicole Newnham, Crip Camp: A Disability Revolution (Netflix)
Dawn Porter, John Lewis: Good Trouble (Magnolia Pictures)
Benjamin Ree, The Painter and the Thief (Neon)

 

BEST FIRST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Robert S. Bader, Ali & Cavett: The Tale of the Tapes (HBO)
Chris Bolan, A Secret Love (Netflix)
Melissa Haizlip, Mr. SOUL! (Shoes in the Bed Productions)
Arthur Jones, Feels Good Man (Wavelength Productions/PBS Independent Lens)
Elizabeth Leiter and Kim Woodard, Jane Goodall: The Hope (National Geographic)
Elizabeth Lo, Stray (Magnolia Pictures)
Sasha Joseph Neulinger, Rewind (Grizzly Creek Films/PBS Independent Lens)

 

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Michael Dweck and Gregory Kershaw, The Truffle Hunters (Sony Pictures Classics)
Roger Horrocks, My Octopus Teacher (Netflix)
Kirsten Johnson, Dick Johnson is Dead (Netflix)
Victor Kossakovsky and Egil Håskjold Larsen, Gunda (Neon)
Scott Ressler, Neil Gelinas and Stefan Wiesen, The Last Ice (National Geographic)
Gianfranco Rosi, Notturno (Stemal Entertainment)
Ruben Woodin Dechamps, The Reason I Jump (Kino Lorber)

 

BEST EDITING
Don Bernier, Athlete A (Netflix)
Eli Despres, Greg Finton and Kim Roberts, The Fight (Magnolia Pictures)
Lindy Jankura and Alex Keipper, Totally Under Control (Neon)
Helen Kearns, Assassins (Greenwich Entertainment)
Victor Kossakovsky and Ainara Vera, Gunda (Neon)
Eileen Meyer and Andrew Gersh, Crip Camp: A Disability Revolution (Netflix)
Charlotte Munch Bengtsen, The Truffle Hunters (Sony Pictures Classics)

 

BEST SCORE
Ari Balouzian and Ryan Hope, Feels Good Man (Wavelength Productions/PBS Independent Lens)
Marco Beltrami, Brandon Roberts and Buck Sanders, The Way I See It (Focus Features)
Tyler Durham, Sven Faulconer and Xander Rodzinski, The Last Ice (National Geographic)
Peter Nashel and Brian Deming, Totally Under Control (Neon)
Daniel Pemberton, Rising Phoenix (Netflix)
Jeff Tweedy, Long Gone Summer (ESPN)
Jeff Tweedy, Spencer Tweedy and Sammy Tweedy, Showbiz Kids (HBO)

 

BEST NARRATION
David Attenborough: A Life on Our Planet (Netflix)
David Attenborough, Narrator
David Attenborough, Writer
Dick Johnson is Dead (Netflix)
Kirsten Johnson, Narrator
Kirsten Johnson, Writer
Fireball: Visitors From Darker Worlds (Apple)
Werner Herzog, Narrator
Werner Herzog, Writer
Mr. SOUL! (Shoes in the Bed Productions)
Blair Underwood, Narrator
Ellis Haizlip, Writer
My Octopus Teacher (Netflix)
Craig Foster, Narrator
Craig Foster, Writer
Time (Amazon Studios)
Fox Rich, Narrator
Fox Rich, Writer
Totally Under Control (Neon)
Alex Gibney, Narrator
Alex Gibney, Writer

 

BEST ARCHIVAL DOCUMENTARY
Ali & Cavett: The Tale of the Tapes (HBO)
Belushi (Showtime)
Class Action Park (HBO)
Crip Camp: A Disability Revolution (Netflix)
MLK/FBI (Field of Vision/IFC Films)
Mr. SOUL! (Shoes in the Bed Productions)
Spaceship Earth (Neon)

 

BEST HISTORICAL/BIOGRAPHICAL DOCUMENTARY
Belushi (Showtime)
Crip Camp: A Disability Revolution (Netflix)
Howard (Disney+)
John Lewis: Good Trouble (Magnolia Pictures)
Mr. SOUL! (Shoes in the Bed Production)
Mucho Mucho Amor: The Legend of Walter Mercado (Netflix)
Natalie Wood: What Remains Behind (HBO)

 

BEST MUSIC DOCUMENTARY
Beastie Boys Story (Apple)
Crock of Gold: A Few Rounds with Shane MacGowan (Magnolia Pictures)
The Go-Go’s (Showtime)
Laurel Canyon (Epix)
Once Were Brothers: Robbie Robertson and The Band (Magnolia Pictures)
Other Music (Factory 25)
Zappa (Magnolia Pictures)

 

BEST POLITICAL DOCUMENTARY
All In: The Fight for Democracy (Amazon Studios)
Boys State (Apple)
John Lewis: Good Trouble (Magnolia Pictures)
MLK/FBI (Field of Vision/IFC Films)
The Social Dilemma (Netflix)
Totally Under Control (Neon)
The Way I See It (Focus Features)

 

BEST SCIENCE/NATURE DOCUMENTARY
Coded Bias (7th Empire Media/PBS Independent Lens)
Fantastic Fungi (Moving Art)
Gunda (Neon)
I Am Greta (Hulu)
The Last Ice (National Geographic)
My Octopus Teacher (Netflix)
Spaceship Earth (Neon)

 

BEST SPORTS DOCUMENTARY
Ali & Cavett: The Tale of the Tapes (HBO)
Athlete A (Netflix)
Be Water (ESPN)
A Most Beautiful Thing (50 Eggs Films)
Red Penguins (Universal Pictures)
Rising Phoenix (Netflix)
You Cannot Kill David Arquette (Super LTD)

 

BEST SHORT DOCUMENTARY
Blackfeet Boxing: Not Invisible (ESPN)
(Directors: Kristen Lappas and Tom Rinaldi. Producers: Craig Lazarus, José Morales, Lindsay Rovegno, Victor Vitarelli and Ben Webber)
The Claudia Kishi Club (Netflix)
(Director and Producer: Sue Ding)
Crescendo! (Quibi)
(Director: Alex Mallis. Producers: Matt O’Neill and Perri Peltz)
Elevator Pitch (Field of Vision)
(Director and Producer: Martyna Starosta)
Hunger Ward (Spin Film/Vulcan Productions/RYOT Films)
(Director and Producer: Skye Fitzgerald. Producer: Michael Scheuerman)
Into the Fire (National Geographic)
(Director: Orlando von Einsiedel. Producers: Mark Bauch, Harri Grace and Dan Lin)
My Father the Mover (MTV Documentary Films)
(Director: Julia Jansch. Producer: Mandilakhe Yengo)
The Rifleman (Field of Vision)
(Director: Sierra Pettengill. Producer: Arielle de Saint Phalle)
The Speed Cubers (Netflix)
(Director and Producer: Sue Kim. Producers: Evan Krauss and Chris Romano)
St. Louis Superman (MTV Documentary Films)
(Directors and Producers: Sami Khan and Smriti Mundhra. Producer: Poh Si Teng)

 

MOST COMPELLING LIVING SUBJECTS OF A DOCUMENTARY (HONOR)
Dr. Rick Bright – Totally Under Control (Neon)
Steven Garza – Boys State (Apple)
The Go-Go’s – The Go-Go’s (Showtime)
Judith Heumann – Crip Camp: A Disability Revolution (Netflix)
Dick Johnson – Dick Johnson is Dead (Netflix)
Maggie Nichols, Rachael Denhollander, Jamie Dantzscher – Athlete A (Netflix)
Fox Rich – Time (Amazon)
Pete Souza – The Way I See It (Focus Features)
Taylor Swift – Miss Americana (Netflix)
Greta Thunberg – I Am Greta (Hulu)

 

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With reactions out, I think Mank is not winning BP. If even some critics are finding it boring (albeit really well made), it's probably gonna alienate Academy members too. Directing and a couple of techs seem the most likely.

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Fincher not pandering to the general audience for more accessibility appeal is probably the most exciting part of these reactions.

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On 10/25/2020 at 3:23 AM, Cmasterclay said:

 

 

*jack nicholson nodding.gif"

Guess, this wasn't Mank. Only thing Collin talked about after the embargo lifted was The Emoji Movie.

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Today's election day, and I'm wondering how each specific winner (Trump or Biden) would affect the outcome of the nominations/wins. I think the outcome would likely affect films that are much more politically inclined than others for the most part. A Trump win would probably increase the urgency of films like The Trial of the Chicago 7 and One Night in Miami, while some voting circles would develop a distaste for films like Hillbilly Elegy and Good Joe Bell. With Biden winning, those results would likely still occur, but to a less obvious degree. I thought it'd be fun to speculate because we saw in 2016 that Trump's win affected the Oscars pretty much immediately; immigration bans motivated voters to give The Salesman Best Foreign Language Film, Zootopia's animated film narrative was likely strengthened (though it probably would've won anyway), and heck, maybe Moonlight's Best Picture win benefited from the aftershock. I'm just thinking out loud, saying that the election might play a role in how certain films are received by the Academy, whether or not we think it should.

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