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Best Picture Predictions - 2020

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13 hours ago, Cmasterclay said:

Paul Raci squad unite

 

I was watching an Oscar speculation video, and one or both of the speculators had seen Sound of Metal, and they said that Raci's performance really was that good/deserving of the nod, and that the only thing holding him back is that Paul Raci doesn't have the same name recognition as other actors. I think in a weak year such as this, that's probably a pretty good spot to be in--I think the Academy would say a lot by nominating an actor that hasn't received many big roles before, and it's not like the Academy hasn't nominated virtually unknown performers before. It may depend on how the academy as a whole views Sound of Metal, but as dry of a category as Supporting Actor could be, I really hope Paul Raci gets in! And I say this without having seen the film.

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Mank got snubbed big time at the Florida Film Critics Circle too. If it fails to get anything tomorrow at the NYFCC and espescially LA the day after, I'm not too sure about it being a big contender.

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37 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Mank got snubbed big time at the Florida Film Critics Circle too. If it fails to get anything tomorrow at the NYFCC and espescially LA the day after, I'm not too sure about it being a big contender.

I watched it the other day and found it to be...just fine and nothing more. Least favorite Fincher effort since The Game. As for Oscars it should be good for nominations for Oldman, Seyfried, and some techs but that's probably it, Chicago 7 and Ma Rainey will be Netflix's main contenders this year.

Edited by filmlover

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Here's the full nominee list from the aforementioned Florida Film Critics Circle!

 

Spoiler
Spoiler

BEST PICTURE
First Cow
Nomadland
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Minari

 

BEST ACTOR
Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Anthony Hopkins, The Father
John Magaro, First Cow
Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal

 

BEST ACTRESS
Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Carrie Coon, The Nest
Elisabeth Moss, Shirley
Frances McDormand, Nomadland
Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman

 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods
Paul Raci, Sound of Metal
Brian Dennehy, Driveways
Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Bill Murray, On the Rocks

 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Swankie, Nomadland
Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari
Jane Adams, She Dies Tomorrow

 

BEST ENSEMBLE
Mangrove
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Minari

 

BEST DIRECTOR
Florian Zeller, The Father
Kelly Reichardt, First Cow
Chloé Zhao, Nomadland
Lee Isaac Chung, Minari
Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7

 

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Peter Docter/ Kemp Powers/Mike Jones, Soul
Jack Fincher, Mank
Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman
Lee Isaac Chung, Minari

 

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Ruben Santiago-Hudson, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Jon Raymond/ Kelly Reichardt, First Cow
Florian Zeller/Christopher Hampton, The Father
Chloé Zhao, Nomadland
Charlie Kaufman, I’m Thinking of Ending Things

 

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Shabier Kirchner, Lovers Rock
Hoyte van Hoytema, Tenet
Victor Kossakovsky/Egil Håskjold Larsen, Gunda
Erik Messerschmidt, Mank
Joshua James Richards, Nomadland

 

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Andrew Jackson, Tenet
Mark Bakowski, The Midnight Sky
Murray Barber, Possessor

 

BEST ART DIRECTION/PRODUCTION
Dan Webster, Mank
Kirby Feagan, Shirley
Adam Marshall, Lovers Rock

 

BEST SCORE
Ludwig Göransson, Tenet
William Tyler, First Cow
Trent Reznor/Atticus Ross/Jon Batiste, Soul
Alexandre Desplat, The Midnight Sky

 

BEST DOCUMENTARY
Dick Johnson is Dead
Gunda
You Don’t Nomi
Time
David Byrne’s American Utopia

 

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Los Fuertes
Those Who Remained
Minari
The Painted Bird
Dry Wind

 

BEST ANIMATED FILM
Wolfwalkers
Soul
Ride Your Wave
The Wolf House
Over the Moon

 

BEST FIRST FILM
Promising Young Woman
The Forty-Year-Old Version
Relic
The Father
Some Kind of Heaven

 

BREAKOUT AWARD
Sidney Flanigan, Never Rarely Sometimes Always
Odessa Young, Shirley
Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Marin Ireland, The Dark and the Wicked
Lucas Jaye, Driveways

 

THE GOLDEN ORANGE AWARD
ENZIAN Theater
Keisha Rae Witherspoon
Amy Seimetz

 

Edited by SLAM!

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Aaaand now for the Chicago Film Critics Association!

 

Spoiler

BEST PICTURE
Da 5 Bloods
First Cow
Lovers Rock
Nomadland
Promising Young Woman

 

BEST DIRECTOR
Emerald Fennell – Promising Young Woman
Spike Lee – Da 5 Bloods
Steve McQueen – Lovers Rock
Kelly Reichardt – First Cow
Chloé Zhao – Nomadland

 

BEST ACTOR
Riz Ahmed – Sound of Metal
Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Anthony Hopkins – The Father
Delroy Lindo – Da 5 Bloods
Steven Yeun – Minari

 

BEST ACTRESS
Jessie Buckley – I’m Thinking of Ending Things
Carrie Coon – The Nest
Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Frances McDormand – Nomadland
Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman

 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Chadwick Boseman – Da 5 Bloods
Bill Murray – On the Rocks
Leslie Odom, Jr. – One Night in Miami
Paul Raci – Sound of Metal
David Strathairn – Nomadland

 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Maria Bakalova – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Toni Collette – I’m Thinking of Ending Things
Amanda Seyfried – Mank
Letitia Wright – Mangrove
Yuh-Jung Youn – Minari

 

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Da 5 Bloods – Danny Bilson, Paul De Meo, Kevin Willmott & Spike Lee
Never Rarely Sometimes Always – Eliza Hittman
Promising Young Woman – Emerald Fennell
Soul – Pete Docter, Mike Jones & Kemp Powers
The Trial of the Chicago 7 – Aaron Sorkin

 

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Father – Christopher Hampton & Florian Zeller
First Cow – Jonathan Raymond & Kelly Reichardt
I’m Thinking of Ending Things – Charlie Kaufman
Nomadland – Chloé Zhao
One Night in Miami – Kemp Powers

 

BEST ANIMATED FILM
Onward
A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon
Soul
The Wolf House
Wolfwalkers

 

BEST DOCUMENTARY
Collective
David Byrne’s American Utopia
Dick Johnson is Dead
The Social Dilemma
Time

 

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
(A tie in the nominations process resulted in six nominees in this category)
Another Round
Bacurau
Beanpole
Collective
La Llorona
Vitalina Varela

 

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
First Cow – Christopher Blauvelt
Lovers Rock – Shabier Kirchner
Mank – Erik Messerschmidt
Nomadland – Joshua James Richards
The Vast of Night – Miguel Ioann Littin Menz

 

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Da 5 Bloods – Terence Blanchard
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – Branford Marsalis
Mank – Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross
Soul – Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross and Jon Batiste
Tenet – Ludwig Göransson

 

BEST ART DIRECTION
Birds of Prey
Emma.
First Cow
I’m Thinking of Ending Things
Mank

 

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Birds of Prey
Emma.
First Cow
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Mank

 

BEST USE OF VISUAL EFFECTS
I’m Thinking of Ending Things
The Invisible Man
The Midnight Sky
Possessor
Tenet

 

BEST EDITING
I’m Thinking of Ending Things – Robert Frazen
Lovers Rock – Chris Dickens & Steve McQueen
Nomadland – Chloé Zhao
Tenet – Jennifer Lame
The Trial of the Chicago 7 – Alan Baumgarten

 

MILOS STEHLIK AWARD FOR PROMISING FILMMAKER
Radha Blank – The Forty-Year-Old Version
Lee Isaac Chung – Minari
Emerald Fennell – Promising Young Woman
Darius Marder – Sound of Metal
Andrew Patterson – The Vast of Night

 

MOST PROMISING PERFORMER
Maria Bakalova – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Kingsley Ben-Adir – One Night in Miami
Sidney Flanigan – Never Rarely Sometimes Always
Kelly O’Sullivan – Saint Frances
Helena Zengel – News of the World

 

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Common Threads So Far

  • The critics are really coming out for First Cow! It's getting notices in a lot of different places. Kelly Reichardt is getting a lot of notices.
  • Carey Mulligan is a common choice, as is Carrie Coon for The Nest (surprisingly so).
  • Mank continues to fail to do as well as some might've hoped. Gary Oldman especially is persistently snubbed in Actor.
  • Yuh-Jung Youn (Minari) is gaining important critical support. Maria Bakalova shows up consistently (she won the New York one btw).
  • CollectiveDick Johnson is Dead, and Time are emerging as frontrunners in Documentary.
  • In animation, The Wolf House has persistently shown up. The film deserves it, but it might be out there for the Academy--though if these critic notices keep coming, we could have a surprise art-film candidate in the race a la something like The Boy and the World. I'm rooting for this one.
  • If Possessor keeps slipping into these critic things for Visual Effects and it somehow slips into the academy's shortlist, then that would be something people would want to root for. An Ex Machina situation without the electric community-wide buzz. I'm also rooting for The Invisible Man in Visual Effects.
  • If News of the World comes and goes without buzz, then First Cow and/or I'm Thinking of Ending Things might have a better chance in Adapted Screenplay than previously thought. They're getting the notices.
  • Supporting Actor is getting interesting. Chadwick Boseman is a much bigger thing for Da 5 Bloods than I could've imagined--like wow. Then Paul Raci's continuing to get notices. Brian Dennehy is a thing for Driveways, though that film probably won't go further than critics stuff. And so far, Bill Murray's chances are rising too, which is fun!

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New York Film Critics Circle Awards:

Mank has been completely snubbed here as well.

 

Spoiler
Spoiler

Best Film: First Cow 

Best First Film: The Forty-Year Old Version (Radha Blank)

Best Director: Chloé Zhao – Nomadland

Best Actor: Delroy Lindo – Da 5 Bloods

Best Actress: Sidney Flanigan – Never Rarely Sometimes Always

Best Supporting Actor: Chadwick Boseman – Da 5 Bloods

Best Supporting Actress: Maria Bakalova – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

Best Screenplay: Never Rarely Sometimes Always (Eliza Hittman)

Best Cinematography: Small Axe (Shabier Kirchner for all films)

Best Animated Film: Wolfwalkers

Best Foreign Language Film: Bacurau

Best Non-Fiction Film: Time

 

Edited by SLAM!
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First Cow probably this year's Uncut Gems. Lots of critics recognition but much further than that. And regarding News of the World, I don't think these regional awards really matter for it. It's going mainly be an industry player.

 

Wolfwalker seems to be getting some genuine passion here (which I haven't really seen for Soul yet, whose Best Picture chances seem be falling too). Don't think it's winning animation at the academy awards but that's purely because of the academy's ignorance regarding animation.

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Sidney Flanigan seems to be doing pretty well so far (and I'm so happy about that) but wouldn't be surprised if she just ends up getting snubbed even if she does really well with the trifecta and critics in general, like Sally Hawkins for Happy-Go-Lucky.

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If Boseman picks up nods for both of his movies, that would make him the first actor to become a double nominee in the same year posthumously, right? Know the actor from Il Postino received double nominations that year but his second nom was for Screenplay.

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Yeah, I expected Small Axe to win this after those initial wins/runner-up. Will be the first Best Film winner from the LAFCA to not get a Best Picture nom since Wall-E.

Edited by lorddemaxus
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LAFCA naming a miniseries that won't be qualifying for the Oscars as the best movie perfectly encapsulates 2020.

 

Boseman is coming for a Ledger-style clean sweep. Watched Ma Rainey this weekend and he completely deserves it. 

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This year we could have the most unpredictable Oscar race ever,

 

Without box office number and most of the Q&A, and campaigning aren't available, it is very hard to measure and feel the buzz..   

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2 hours ago, Melosh said:

Is soul still a sure bet for a nomination of best picture? 

It would be a surprise if it wasn't at this point tbh.

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Soul will get a nom, no doubt. I even think there is a small like 5% chance it can even win BP.

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why an animated feature is only to be "nominated" when they expand the field to 10? They never nominate any animated feature ever since they impose flexible number of nominees. 

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