Best Picture Predictions - 2020

[Eric Duncan]

lmao Josh Gad loves simping over Disney

[filmlover]

6 minutes ago, Eric Gardner said:

lmao Josh Gad loves simping over Disney

Well yeah, he's like their favorite person right now for who knows what reason lmao. Olaf's power, I guess. Watch them still give that Honey I Shrunk the Kids reboot he's in a theatrical release after just sending a whole bunch of other movies that weren't sure bets at the box office to streaming.

[lorddemaxus]

Someone gotta point Josh Gad to the real best Disney flick of the year. Or will he think it's a fake Disney film because it has the Fox name attached?

[filmlover]

9 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Someone gotta point Josh Gad to the real best Disney flick of the year. Or will he think it's a fake Disney film because it has the Fox name attached?

20th Century or Searchlight, you mean. Although even then he would still disagree because no magic castle logo anywhere to be found.

[Barnack]

On 12/28/2020 at 11:18 AM, titanic2187 said:

why an animated feature is only to be "nominated" when they expand the field to 10? They never nominate any animated feature ever since they impose flexible number of nominees. 

The type of movie that could get in those 2 years do feel different it is not only the numbers that end up nominated but the type of movie the change in voting process involved.

 

Now to get nominated you need to have at least 5% first place vote (if I understand the very hard to understand process), so the type of movie that was often in people top list but very rarely #1 got retired, we can assume most had WallE in their top movie but few as the very number 1.

[lorddemaxus]

Sound of Metal was pretty great. Hope Raci and Ahmed get nominations. Deserves the sound win too. 

[titanic2187]

4 hours ago, Barnack said:

The type of movie that could get in those 2 years do feel different it is not only the numbers that end up nominated but the type of movie the change in voting process involved.

 

Now to get nominated you need to have at least 5% first place vote (if I understand the very hard to understand process), so the type of movie that was often in people top list but very rarely #1 got retired, we can assume most had WallE in their top movie but few as the very number 1.

I can say that for 2009 (District 9 and The blind side) but 2010 nominees look very much the same as the rest of the decade.

 

I prefer the   5-10 flexible number of nominees. By forcing the voters to come out 10 BP nominees , the final list will end up pretty much identical to those GG/PGA/NBR top 10 lists with minimal suspense on the Oscar nomination day.  

 

The 5% threshold method is making perfect sense too. In the nomination process, the nominees have to fight for passionate number 1 votes while the final BP winner is selected through consensus (preferential ranking). It is balance of voting process.   

 

[Barnack]

9 hours ago, titanic2187 said:

I can say that for 2009 (District 9 and The blind side) but 2010 nominees look very much the same as the rest of the decade.

 

You could add Up and in 2010 you have Toy Story 3, do not forget you premise of why was those 2 year's the only time we got best picture animated movie nominee in the 2000s.

 

Yes the logic to compete for first place and the way the winner being #1 vote process heavy instead of a weighted affair do make a lot of sense to me as well, you get more controversial pick that way for sure, but for something like movies that make a lot of sense.

[lorddemaxus]

Maybe my thoughts will change once we get to the guilds but it feels like Universal completely botched News of the World's campaign.

Edited January 5, 2021 by lorddemaxus

[filmlover]

2 hours ago, lorddemaxus said:

Maybe my thoughts will change once we get to the guilds but it feels like Universal completely botched News of the World's campaign.

tbh it's the kind of movie that probably would've done pretty well at the box office and would've gotten in based on that in normal times but that's been thrown out the window because we're in a pandemic. It's certainly an exciting, unpredictable year knowing that none of the things that used to help movies out during awards season (box office, big festival premieres, starry guild screenings) will apply to this season and everyone will have to get in pretty much on their own merits, more or less.

[lorddemaxus]

After the NSFC, thinking Never Rarely Sometimes Always coming for that original screenplay nom.

[SLAM!]

And here's all of the aforementioned NSFC wins:

 

Spoiler

Spoiler

Best Picture:

WINNER: NOMADLAND (52 points)

RUNNERS-UP:

FIRST COW (50 points)

NEVER RARELY SOMETIMES ALWAYS (41 points)

 

Director:

WINNER: Chloé Zhao, NOMADLAND (58 points)

RUNNERS-UP:

Steve McQueen, SMALL AXE (41 points)

Kelly Reichardt, FIRST COW (30 points)

 

Actress:

WINNER: Best Actress: Frances McDormand, NOMADLAND (46 points)

RUNNERS-UP:

Viola Davis, MA RAINEY’S BLACK BOTTOM (33 points)

Sidney Flanigan, NEVER RARELY SOMETIMES ALWAYS (29 points)

 

Actor:

WINNER: Best Actor: Delroy Lindo, DA 5 BLOODS (52 points)

RUNNERS-UP:

Chadwick Boseman, MA RAINEY’S BLACK BOTTOM (47 points)

Riz Ahmed, SOUND OF METAL (32 points)

 

Supporting Actress:

WINNER: Best Supporting Actress, Maria Bakalova, BORAT SUBSEQUENT MOVIEFILM (47 points)

RUNNERS-UP:

Amanda Seyfried, MANK (40 points)

Youn Yuh-jung, MINARI (33 points)

 

Supporting Actor:

WINNER: Best Supporting Actor: Paul Raci, SOUND OF METAL (53 points)

RUNNER-UPS:

Glynn Turman, MA RAINEY’S BLACK BOTTOM (36 points)

Chadwick Boseman, DA 5 BLOODS (35 points)

 

Screenplay:

WINNER: Best Screenplay: Eliza Hittman, NEVER RARELY SOMETIMES ALWAYS (38 points)

RUNNERS-UP:

Jon Raymond and Kelly Reichardt, FIRST COW (35 points)

Charlie Kaufman, I’M THINKING OF ENDING THINGS (29 points)

 

Cinematography:

WINNER: Best Cinematography: Joshua James Richards, NOMADLAND (47 points)

RUNNERS-UP:

Shabier Kirchner, LOVERS ROCK (41 points)

Leonardo Simões, VITALINA VARELA (34 points)

 

Foreign-Language Film:

WINNER: COLLECTIVE (38 points) Runners-up:

RUNNERS-UP:

BACURAU and BEANPOLE (36 points)

VITALINA VARELA (32 points)

 

Non-fiction Film:

WINNER: TIME (46 points)

RUNNERS-UP:

CITY HALL (28 points)

COLLECTIVE (22 points)

 

Film Heritage Award:

WINNERS:

Women Make Movies

Film Comment

Brattle Theatre in Cambridge, MA

 

Edited January 9, 2021 by SLAM!

[SLAM!]

https://insidethemagic.net/2021/01/hamilton-93rd-academy-awards-tm1/

 

Hamilton is out of the race.

[lorddemaxus]

Now that all the big Feb releases have reactions/reviews of some sort, it seems likely that none of them will be major contenders. At best, some of them will get acting noms.

[lorddemaxus]

6 hours ago, lorddemaxus said:

Now that all the big Feb releases have reactions/reviews of some sort, it seems likely that none of them will be major contenders. At best, some of them will get acting noms.

Never mind, more reactions for Judas have come out and it seems like it could actually be a major contender. Also heard it's doing well with SAG members on awardsworthy and the Sundance premiere should help. 

[SLAM!]

These are the Hawaii Film Critics winners!

 

Spoiler

Spoiler

BEST PICTURE: The Trial of the Chicago 7

BEST DIRECTOR: Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods

BEST ACTOR: Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods

BEST ACTRESS: Frances McDormand, Nomadland

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Paul Raci, Sound of Metal

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Olivia Cooke, Sound of Metal

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Chloe Zhao (from the book by Jessica Bruder), Nomadland

BEST ART DIRECTION: Chris Craine and Dan Webster, Mank

BEST COSTUME DESIGN: Ann Roth, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: Hoyte Van Hoytema, Tenet

BEST EDITING: Alan Baumgarten, The Trial of the Chicago 7

BEST ANIMATED FILM: Lupin III: The First, dir. Takashi Yamazaki

BEST DOCUMENTARY: Beastie Boys Story, dir. Spike Jonze

BEST MAKE-UP: Mank

BEST SOUND: Sound of Metal

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE: Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, Mank

BEST SONG: “Speak Now,” One Night in Miami…

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS: Tenet

BEST STUNT WORK: Tenet

BEST NEW FILMMAKER: Regina King, One Night in Miami…

BEST FIRST FILM: Florian Zeller, The Father

BEST OVERLOOKED FILM: Possessor, dir. Brandon Cronenberg

BEST VOCAL/MOTION CAPTURE PERFORMANCE: Jamie Foxx, Soul

BEST HORROR FILM: Relic, dir. Natalie Erika James

BEST COMIC BOOK MOVIE: Bloodshot, dir. Dave Wilson

BEST SCI-FI FILM: Tenet, dir. Christopher Nolan

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: The Life Ahead, dir. Edoardo Ponti (Italy)

BEST HAWAIIAN FILM: Waikiki, dir. Christopher Kahunahana (Oahu)

WORST FILM OF 2020: WW84

 

My (Slam's) Impressions:

- I think if random critics award things are willing to give The Trial of the Chicago 7 Best Picture, then the chances of that film winning Best Picture go up a little bit because it's the type of film the Academy would love. I don't think anyone would sneeze at this one winning.

- This is the first nomination I've seen for Lupin the III: The First, let alone win. Now, here's where my mind is. Onward, Over The Moon, Soul, and Wolfwalkers are the four locks, and the fifth slot is open. The fifth slot will in all likelihood go to a boring choice like Croods 2 or Trolls 2. But I think there's a strong case for Lupin to be the fifth nominee, and I'm really glad critics bodies might be starting to see that. There's about two-ish months left for campaigning so we'll see if it's able to muster enough word of mouth.

- Another mention for Possessor! If it somehow makes the ten-film bakeoff for Best Visual Effects, watch out.

- Bloodshot for Best Comic Book Movie?! Freakin' awesomesauce choices, Hawaii...

 

Edited January 14, 2021 by SLAM!

[SLAM!]

https://variety.com/2021/film/awards/oscars-international-feature-shortlist-expansion-1234886756/amp/

 

The International Feature Film voting branch has expanded the amount of films on their preliminary shortlist from 10 to 15 effective immediately. They have also removed a "Save" process, so if there are any glaring omissions below the 15 films with the most votes, then they will no longer be able to correct it. This is a very exciting development.

[titanic2187]

On 1/6/2021 at 2:17 AM, filmlover said:

tbh it's the kind of movie that probably would've done pretty well at the box office and would've gotten in based on that in normal times but that's been thrown out the window because we're in a pandemic. It's certainly an exciting, unpredictable year knowing that none of the things that used to help movies out during awards season (box office, big festival premieres, starry guild screenings) will apply to this season and everyone will have to get in pretty much on their own merits, more or less.

I am not sure if Parasite would still have that historical  Oscar win if without those box office numbers and press events. 

[filmlover]

9 hours ago, titanic2187 said:

I am not sure if Parasite would still have that historical  Oscar win if without those box office numbers and press events. 

In retrospect, Parasite's glorious win should've been a sign that 2020 had peaked and that the rest of the year was gonna be garbage.

[lorddemaxus]

Confused by the influx of people thinking that Minari will be a big contender and not only will get a BP nom but also a Director nom. The movie has been doing pretty mediocre in regional awards and televised/industry awards aren't gonna care about the film. This is shaping up to be another The Farewell.