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Best Picture Predictions - 2020

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7 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

Ammonite,  an indie British lesbian period piece winning best picture?  I don’t think it has any chance, I would be over the moon for just a best picture nomination, ( or Ronan’s overdue win, they like rewarding actresses around this age, and I hope she doesn’t become the next Amy Adams/Glenn Close.... she’s already at 4 noms without wins)

 

 

 

 

even Little Women couldn’t come close and it was one of the best period pieces released recently.

Probably correct. It's just been years since an obvious contender actually....won. Who knows what the surprise will be this year - or maybe, with soooo many powerhouse directors (especially if we get PTA/DOR/Del Toro/Coen!), it will just be a fairly conventional winner. Of the obvious contenders, Da Five Bloods and French Dispatch are jumping out as the strongest contenders at this insanely early junction.

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3 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Probably correct. It's just been years since an obvious contender actually....won. Who knows what the surprise will be this year - or maybe, with soooo many powerhouse directors (especially if we get PTA/DOR/Del Toro/Coen!), it will just be a fairly conventional winner. Of the obvious contenders, Da Five Bloods and French Dispatch are jumping out as the strongest contenders at this insanely early junction.

I think barring no international surprises from Cannes or Venice, it’s gonna be a three way race between Mank, Trial of the Chicago 7 and Da 5 Bloods.

 


The French Dispatch looks like another Grandbudapest Hotel, and Anderson’s visual style isn’t everyone’s cup of tea so voters will respect it enough to nominate it everywhere (except acting, his films don’t get enough love here) but it they’ll only give it 1 or 2 technical wins imo.

 

 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

Besides Nomadland and On the Rocks, are there any high profile (non-blockbuster) female directed films coming this year? 
 

i could only think of First Cow from A24 but it looks too weird and “Never Rarely Always Sometimes” from Eliza Hittman that gained traction at Sundance but it sounds too indie.

 

Emma. had a great showing from Anya but released too early.

 

Yeah, I think that's it. It's a shame, but I think that's it. Maybe if Passing is really good, Rebecca Hall could surge forward--which is ironic, because she's deserved a Best Actress nomination for years, and she'd be getting one for directing. And Ildiko Enyedi (On Body and Soul) has her English-language debut, though that's a huge long-shot because it doesn't even have distribution yet. A24 and Bleecker Street have some other potentialities. Other than that... Yeah. Something would have to completely come out of nowhere. Unless Cannes or Toronto really kickstart something, it's not looking hopeful.

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49 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

( or Ronan’s overdue win, they like rewarding actresses around this age, and I hope she doesn’t become the next Amy Adams/Glenn Close.... she’s already at 4 noms without wins)

I don't think Ronan is comparable at all to either an Adams or a Close (especially when she received her first nomination at such a young age). Honestly the strongest comparison I can think of is her Ammonite co-star Kate Winslet, who ended up winning on her sixth nomination, so her moment might not be that far off.

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14 hours ago, filmlover said:

I don't think Ronan is comparable at all to either an Adams or a Close (especially when she received her first nomination at such a young age). Honestly the strongest comparison I can think of is her Ammonite co-star Kate Winslet, who ended up winning on her sixth nomination, so her moment might not be that far off.

Kate Winslet rn isn't a good comp either because she already won once. by the end of 2021's Oscar ceremony Ronan will likely be at 5 nominations (without wins if she doesn't win for Ammonite) which would put her same as Amy Adams after American Hustle landed her her 5th nomination. 

 

 

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Adams didn't break out until she was 30, Ronan and Winslet have both been ubiquitous since their teenage years. Which tbh is probably its own Oscar obstacle because you become such a known quantity so quickly and you a neither a star-is-born nor yet a veteran. Wouldn't surprise me if Ronan, like Winslet, won in a weak year for a forgettable movie simply because the overriding sentiment becomes "ok let's just give it to her already and be done with it".

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Gonna take a wild shot in the dark and say:

 

Ammonite 

Da 5 Bloods 

The French Dispatch

In the Heights 

Mank

News of the World 

Nomadland

Stillwater 

West Side Story 

Dune/Tenet (grouping these two together because I feel like one or the other will make it in. Would be incredibly shocked if both ended up making it in)

 

No idea if Macbeth or Nightmare Alley will make it this year or not but I could see both of of them being big contenders if they are. If Macbeth does come this year, I could see it edging potentially edging out Minari for being A24's main awards push.

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9 hours ago, lorddemaxus said:

@RealLyre I looked back at Coen Brothers' production schedule for their last two movies and it does seem like Macbeth won't release this year. Most likely releasing at Cannes next year I guess.

interesting, I also looked up Guillermo del Toro's production schedule on his other films sometime ago and he usually takes 1.5-2 years (sometimes more) to finish a movie, so I have doubts Nightmare Alley even makes this December. 

 

of course Searchlight could always tell him to speed things up but he wouldn't rush it me thinks. (same for Joel Coen i guess) 

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1 minute ago, filmlover said:

Luckily David Fincher and Spike Lee's movies are already done (I think).

Yeah, Da 5 Bloods even had a few critic test screenings earlier this year. I think Netflix was trying to push for a Cannes premiere (I guess they wanted Cannes to change the rules and allow Netflix films to screen there for this year) but Cannes isn't even happening at this point. Most like a Venice premiere.

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