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Best Actor Predictions 2020

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I imagine Lindo will win critics awards in lead (i get the vibe he'll be the performance the critics awards will really push out of any of these) and that'll be the end of the discussion. putting him in lead gives room to push Clarke Peters or Jonathan Majors (both also great in the movie) for supporting nods. it just makes sense to me. i can't believe it'll even be a question.

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I don't want to put a jinx on him but I really feel Lindo is going to be collecting his fair share of accolades at some point next year. In regards to his category placement, his role to me what Brad Pitt's in OUATIH was last year: it fits in both Lead and Supporting. I personally believe his chances of winning in the latter are stronger. On the one hand, Da 5 Bloods is a true ensemble piece and doesn't revolve around one person's perspective, so it doesn't feel quite right to have anyone in a Lead category. However, Lindo's character arguably gets the most to do and leaves the strongest impact, so I wouldn't be totally opposed to a Lead push. Supporting seems like a more open field in regards to contenders, whereas with Lead you've got Hopkins and Oldman to compete against, whose films are expected to release in the thick of awards season (whatever that will look like this year). I'll definitely be rooting for Lindo though, whatever category he's in. He's absolutely outstanding.

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My two cents is this: while Delroy Lindo could fit in both categories, I would prefer that he gets campaigned in Lead. I think his performance really defines the film. Like how Olivia Colman's performance defined The Favourite even though her screentime wasn't as much of a percentage as the other nominees. It doesn't start out as central... but it becomes central. I think he has a chance to win Best Actor--Hopkins and Oldman notwithstanding. And yeah, let's grant a great African American actor the chance for Best Actor if he's going to be a serious candidate. Best Supporting Actor is too easy,  I think. And in this era of protests, that would almost feel like a copout--a performance that big should go for Best Actor, really. If Forest Whitaker can be pushed for Best Actor for The Last King of Scotland and win, then Delroy Lindo can (and should) be pushed for Best Actor. I almost want him to be pushed for Best Actor just to see what the Academy does.

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I watched Da 5 Bloods tonight and I feel like the Olivia Colman comparison above is spot-on (any of the three Favourite women going to Supporting was always gonna feel off since they were all leads). I could see Lindo going to either Lead or Supporting but Peters would fit in Lead as well. The critics awards will probably be what determines where he goes in this year where the deadline will be extended and campaigning will be quite different from usual.

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it reminded me of both The Favorite and Parasite (when Song Kang-Ho went supporting despite top billing). I think that's the nature of ensemble movies, you could go either way.

 

also how RDJ was gonna count as supporting for Endgame despite him being one of the leads there.

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To me Lindo doesn't seem close to the borderline cases of Parasite and Favorite. He's definately the lead. It is ensemble but the focus is explicitly on him, half of Majors and Peters screentime is reacting to him, even the flashbacks are half about him half about everyone else combined. Ofc they can fraud him into supporting because it's "ensemble" but this isn't a case of a movie having multiple people with equal focus and someone has to go supporting. The movie has only one lead and it's Lindo.

Edited by Joel M
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33 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

I think he had over 50% screentime. He's definitely the lead.

didn't Mahershala Ali also had 50%+ of screen time in green book? they can category fraud Lindo into supporting like they done with green book/OUATIH the past 2 years. 

 

the decision will be up to Netflix whether to campaign in lead or supporting anyway. 

 

supporting would be an easy win for Lindo but I hope they go with lead so it makes an interesting lead actor race for this season. Lindo vs Hopkins vs Oldman 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, RealLyre said:

didn't Mahershala Ali also had 50%+ of screen time in green book? they can category fraud Lindo into supporting like they done with green book/OUATIH the past 2 years. 

 

the decision will be up to Netflix whether to campaign in lead or supporting anyway. 

 

supporting would be an easy win for Lindo but I hope they go with lead so it makes an interesting lead actor race for this season. Lindo vs Hopkins vs Oldman 

 

 

 

Yes, Mahershala Ali had more than 50 percent screentime in Green Book, but Viggo had even more screentime than him. Here is a great resource for awards junkies who care about these things:

 

Screen Time Central 

 

Specifically the breakdowns for Best Actor and Supporting Actor that year went like this:

 

91st Academy Awards - 2018 [Lead]

Christian Bale (Vice) - 1:06:27 / 50.21%

Willem Dafoe (At Eternity's Gate) - 1:13:02 / 65.69%

Viggo Mortensen (Green Book) - 1:30:44 / 69.82%

Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody) - 1:31:58 / 68.39%

Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born) - 1:35:13 / 70.22%

 

 

91st Academy Awards - 2018 [Supporting]

Sam Elliott (A Star Is Born) - 8:45 / 6.45%

Sam Rockwell (Vice) - 9:51 / 7.44%

Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?) - 31:04 / 29.24%

Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman) - 38:16 / 28.41%

Mahershala Ali (Green Book) -1:06:38 / 51.28%

 

When co-leads go Supporting, it's often to avoid internal competition or competing against themselves in another movie, but neither is a factor for Lindo. They could try the ensemble argument, but the case for him as a lead is strong enough.

 

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6 hours ago, BoxOfficeFangrl said:

Yes, Mahershala Ali had more than 50 percent screentime in Green Book, but Viggo had even more screentime than him. Here is a great resource for awards junkies who care about these things:

 

Screen Time Central 

 

Specifically the breakdowns for Best Actor and Supporting Actor that year went like this:

 

91st Academy Awards - 2018 [Lead]

Christian Bale (Vice) - 1:06:27 / 50.21%

Willem Dafoe (At Eternity's Gate) - 1:13:02 / 65.69%

Viggo Mortensen (Green Book) - 1:30:44 / 69.82%

Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody) - 1:31:58 / 68.39%

Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born) - 1:35:13 / 70.22%

 

 

91st Academy Awards - 2018 [Supporting]

Sam Elliott (A Star Is Born) - 8:45 / 6.45%

Sam Rockwell (Vice) - 9:51 / 7.44%

Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?) - 31:04 / 29.24%

Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman) - 38:16 / 28.41%

Mahershala Ali (Green Book) -1:06:38 / 51.28%

 

When co-leads go Supporting, it's often to avoid internal competition or competing against themselves in another movie, but neither is a factor for Lindo. They could try the ensemble argument, but the case for him as a lead is strong enough.

 

Surprised Bale's screen time is so low considering it seemed like he was in almost every scene in Vice (although there were only three people in the 2010s who scored over 80% in that category - Fassbender in Steve Jobs, Chalamet in Call Me by Your Name, and Phoenix in Joker) but I suppose that goes to show how much of a nonfactor everyone else in that movie was (lol Rockwell's afterglow nomination for doing basically nothing). If Ali went to Lead he would've easily kicked out Dafoe (though probably would've still lost to Rami).

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1 hour ago, filmlover said:

Surprised Bale's screen time is so low considering it seemed like he was in almost every scene in Vice (although there were only three people in the 2010s who scored over 80% in that category - Fassbender in Steve Jobs, Chalamet in Call Me by Your Name, and Phoenix in Joker) but I suppose that goes to show how much of a nonfactor everyone else in that movie was (lol Rockwell's afterglow nomination for doing basically nothing). If Ali went to Lead he would've easily kicked out Dafoe (though probably would've still lost to Rami).

Maybe Viggo and Mahershala would have canceled each other out? Two nominees in Lead for the same movie hasn't happened in decades. They liked Green Book a lot but you can win Best Picture without acting nominations. 

 

 

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12 hours ago, RealLyre said:

didn't Mahershala Ali also had 50%+ of screen time in green book? they can category fraud Lindo into supporting like they done with green book/OUATIH the past 2 years. 

 

the decision will be up to Netflix whether to campaign in lead or supporting anyway. 

 

supporting would be an easy win for Lindo but I hope they go with lead so it makes an interesting lead actor race for this season. Lindo vs Hopkins vs Oldman 

 

 

 

I don't see why they'd do that when they'd rather get 2 nominations by putting Lindo up for lead and someone else for supporting? They didn't really fraud Green Book and OUATIH considering they already had one actor in lead for both those movies.

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unless News of the world disappoints. the lead actor race looks kinda finished to me

 

1. Anthony Hopkins - The Father

 

2. Gary Oldman - Mank

 

3. Daniel Kaluuya/Lakeith Stanfield -  Judas and the Black Messiah (whoever goes lead, I heard it'll be Stanfield)

 

4. Delroy Lindo - Da 5 Bloods
 

5. Tom Hanks - News of the World

 

edit: I forgot about Kingsley Ben-Adir in One Night In Miami. he'll def get nominated but I think they can put him in supporting. 

 

Edited by RealLyre
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12 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

I doubt Hopkins is locked. Competition for Best Actor seems pretty tight this year.

I was skeptical about it and thought it would be close between him, lindo and Oldman but after watching The Father. Hopkin's performance is undeniable. it will be very hard for anyone else to beat him imo. also Hopkins hasn't won since The Silence of the Lambs in 1992 so he can have the comeback narrative for his 2nd Oscar (like Renee last year, although his performance is way better).

 

The Father also might be the best film I've seen at TIFF overall and I would predict it to win the TIFF audience award if it wasn't only available for 3 hours to screen whereas everything else was open for the whole day so less people watched it.

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Cherry's acquisition by Apple will be very fruitful (no pun intended) for Tom Holland. It had been previously thought that Cherry would be on Netflix, and they have a bunch of peopleto campaign for--but Apple can focus their efforts on Tom Holland in a way they can't. So Tom Holland's chances are much better now.

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