Weekdays Thread (2/18-2/20)

[lorddemaxus]

2 hours ago, narniadis said:

Historical comps for this particular Friday very rarely show family films with more than 110% 

 

Fridays from now to Easter will be uneven due to the spread of mid-term / spring breaks. 

 

25m will historically speaking be a very hard to hit number based on the Wednesday drop. 

I mean, Lego Batman did increase 137% on the same Friday though, Kung Fu Panda 3 did 132% increase, and Peter Rabbit did 116% increase. I think The Lego Movie 2 would be a bad comp because it faced HTTYD 3 that weekend. I think over 110% increase is possible. Since it's facing Call of the Wild which is some competition, I'd say 115%-120% increase would be a reasonable expectation.

[1Robert1]

2 hours ago, narniadis said:

Historical comps for this particular Friday very rarely show family films with more than 110% 

 

 

Lol

Which exactly family movie made less than 110% on this particular friday?

2014

1	1	The Lego Movie	$7,275,739	+169.2%	-43.2%	3,890	$1,870	$158,985,835	15	Warner Bros.
2	-	3 Days to Kill	$4,034,208	-	-	2,872	$1,404	$4,034,208	1	Relativity Media
3	-	Pompeii	$3,367,131	-	-	2,658	$1,266	$3,367,131	1	TriStar Pictures
4	2	RoboCop	$2,589,989	+118.6%	-62.1%	3,372	$768	$36,790,095	10	Sony Pictures Releasing
5	4	About Last Night	$2,278,167	+167.7%	-82.3%	2,253	$1,011	$33,024,457	8	Screen Gems
6	3	The Monuments Men	$2,243,767	+123.7%	-54.8%	3,064	$732	$52,188,451	15	Sony Pictures Releasing
7	6	Endless Love	$1,462,480	+248.2%	-80.3%	2,896	$505	$17,303,735	8	Universal Pictures
8	7	Ride Along	$1,333,460	+221.1%	-60.9%	2,186	$610	$119,839,260	36	Universal Pictures
9	5	Frozen	$1,023,438	+125.6%	-40.1%	1,891	$541	$380,727,773	92	Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures
10	8	Winter's Tale	$674,323	+116.7%	-81.5%	2,965	$227	$9,768,224	8	Warner Bros.
11	9	Lone Survivor	$545,760	+126.1%	-56.3%	1,516	$360	$120,276,666	59	Universal Pictures
12	10	That Awkward Moment	$477,078	+122.8%	-69%	1,208	$394	$23,145,620	22	Focus Features
13	13	American Hustle	$458,279	+155.3%	-41.3%	903	$507	$142,841,353	71	Sony Pictures Releasing

2003

1	-	Old School	$6,165,012	-	-	2,689	$2,292	$6,165,012	1	DreamWorks Distribution
2	1	Daredevil	$5,401,164	+183.6%	-64.7%	3,474	$1,554	$56,780,713	8	Twentieth Century Fox
3	2	How to Lose a Guy in 10 Days	$3,922,594	+219.6%	-41.8%	2,923	$1,341	$56,953,714	15	Paramount Pictures
4	3	Chicago	$2,450,000	+127.9%	-39.1%	2,355	$1,040	$88,303,478	57	Miramax
5	-	The Life of David Gale	$2,322,355	-	-	2,002	$1,160	$2,322,355	1	Universal Pictures
6	5	Shanghai Knights	$1,864,450	+182.8%	-47.2%	2,526	$738	$39,866,438	15	Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures
7	4	The Jungle Book 2	$1,857,532	+131.9%	-40%	2,815	$659	$18,316,257	8	Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures
8	-	Gods and Generals	$1,473,358	-	-	1,533	$961	$1,473,358	1	Warner Bros.
9	-	Dark Blue	$1,218,228	-	-	2,176	$559	$1,218,228	1	United Artists
10	6	The Recruit	$1,037,367	+119.1%	-47.6%	1,678	$618	$41,952,925	22	Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures
11	7	Final Destination 2	$940,000	+123.8%	-53.2%	1,518	$619	$38,266,401	22	New Line Cinema

[lorddemaxus]

2 minutes ago, 1Robert1 said:

Lol

Which exactly family movie made less than 110% on this particular friday?

2014

1	1	The Lego Movie	$7,275,739	+169.2%	-43.2%	3,890	$1,870	$158,985,835	15	Warner Bros.

You can't compare a movie from 6 years ago lol. A lot has changed since then and the more recent comps show that. I doubt it going sub-110% but it's not getting that kind of bump either.

[1Robert1]

5 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

You can't compare a movie from 6 years ago lol. A lot has changed since then and the more recent comps show that. I doubt it going sub-110% but it's not getting that kind of bump either.

2 hours ago, narniadis said:

Historical comps for this particular Friday very rarely show family films with more than 110%

 

In 2003 and 2014 there was valentine day on friday, so i can compare only this years😉 

 

And i'm not saying it will do +169% i'm saying based on historical comps it will do better than 110%.

 

Edited February 20, 2020 by 1Robert1

[lorddemaxus]

14 minutes ago, 1Robert1 said:

In 2003 and 2014 there was valentine day on friday, so i can compare only this years😉

 

Any post-President's day weekend works fine though. Valentine's day isn't going to affect the day-to-day holds for a movie the weekend after Valentine's.

Edited February 20, 2020 by lorddemaxus

[1Robert1]

8 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

 Valentine's day isn't going to affect the day-to-day holds for a movie the weekend after Valentine's.

Did you check year after year or it's just your guess?

[lorddemaxus]

6 minutes ago, 1Robert1 said:

Did you check year after year or it's just your guess?

lol, I legit just talked about it on this thread:

 

55 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

I mean, Lego Batman did increase 137% on the same Friday though, Kung Fu Panda 3 did 132% increase, and Peter Rabbit did 116% increase. I think The Lego Movie 2 would be a bad comp because it faced HTTYD 3 that weekend. I think over 110% increase is possible. Since it's facing Call of the Wild which is some competition, I'd say 115%-120% increase would be a reasonable expectation.

 

[1Robert1]

You said:

I'd say 115%-120% increase would be a reasonable expectation.

 

 

I said:

 

i'm saying based on historical comps it will do better than 110%.

 

So why you are saying ,,lol'' if we agree with each other?

Edited February 20, 2020 by 1Robert1

[dxmatrixdt]

.

Edited June 15, 2020 by abusive brainwashed Christ

[sfran43]

 

[lorddemaxus]

25 minutes ago, 1Robert1 said:

You said:

I'd say 115%-120% increase would be a reasonable expectation.

 

 

I said:

 

i'm saying based on historical comps it will do better than 110%.

 

So why you are saying ,,lol'' if we agree with each other?

Sorry, I thought you were expecting a Lego Movie type bump.

[narniadis]

@1Robert1 the conversation about sonic is not new and if I was looking at animated films as my only source then I (and several other trackers) would be wrong. 

I admit that I didnt look at 2014 since the focus of the conversation the last couple days hadnt been back 6 years. However, your asinine inclusion of 2003 does you no favors since any decent box office follower understands that the data is not compatible. 

I also acknowledge that the data is skewed due to last year with Dragon 3 sinking a better rise for Lego 2 on this weekend. Should I have said 120 instead of 110, yes, its an error that I made 🤷‍♂️ as is not usuing a qualifier such as the words "much more." 

However, if you look at your 2014 example and see the weekend after this, you will notice the whole point of the conversation (that this weekend is skewed down due to the past holiday) is accurate as Lego movie went back to having massive jumps as is normal for family animated films. 

Sonic is missing the element of being an animated film, among other issues that helped buoy its box office last weekend which depending on how it plays out could considerably depress the performance ala something like Alita last year (doubtful, but anything is possible.)

[1Robert1]

3 minutes ago, narniadis said:

@1Robert1 the conversation about sonic is not new and if I was looking at animated films as my only source then I (and several other trackers) would be wrong. 

I admit that I didnt look at 2014 since the focus of the conversation the last couple days hadnt been back 6 years. However, your asinine inclusion of 2003 does you no favors since any decent box office follower understands that the data is not compatible. 

I also acknowledge that the data is skewed due to last year with Dragon 3 sinking a better rise for Lego 2 on this weekend. Should I have said 120 instead of 110, yes, its an error that I made 🤷‍♂️ as is not usuing a qualifier such as the words "much more." 

However, if you look at your 2014 example and see the weekend after this, you will notice the whole point of the conversation (that this weekend is skewed down due to the past holiday) is accurate as Lego movie went back to having massive jumps as is normal for family animated films. 

Sonic is missing the element of being an animated film, among other issues that helped buoy its box office last weekend which depending on how it plays out could considerably depress the performance ala something like Alita last year (doubtful, but anything is possible.)

I included 2003 cause you said for this particular Friday you didn't say post presidential day friday, but ,,for this particular Friday'' because of that i assume that you was talking about 21st february friday, exactly week after valentine day. So you said 110% instead of 120%, and didn't check year 2014, but your post isn't asinine, and what i wrote is asinine because YOU didn't wrote what exactly for this particular Friday means for you.

I blocked your posts for some time, today unblocked and it was clearly mistake. Bye.

[sfran43]

Weekend Forecast

Film	Distributor	3-Day Weekend Forecast	Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, February 23	% Change from Last Wknd
Sonic the Hedgehog	Paramount	$31,000,000	$110,000,000	-47%
The Call of the Wild	20th Century Studios	$13,000,000	$13,000,000	NEW
Birds of Prey (and the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn)	Warner Bros.	$9,600,000	$75,400,000	-44%
Bad Boys for Life	Sony / Columbia	$6,300,000	$191,200,000	-45%
Brahms: The Boy 2	STX	$5,600,000	$5,600,000	NEW
1917	Universal	$4,900,000	$152,500,000	-39%
Blumhouse’s Fantasy Island	Sony / Columbia	$4,100,000	$19,600,000	-67%
The Photograph	Universal	$3,800,000	$18,500,000	-69%
Jumanji: The Next Level	Sony / Columbia	$3,400,000	$311,400,000	-39%
Parasite	Neon	$3,100,000	$48,800,000	-45%

[sfran43]

 

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[sfran43]