Weekend Thread: Actuals - Invisible Man 28.2, Sonic 16.26, Call of the Wild 13.36

[sfran43]

 

Edited March 2, 2020 by sfran43

[Maggie]

Disappointing.

[The Horror of Lucas Films]

Insidious 4 did $29m on OW coming off $1.9m at previews, despite being a sequel.

 

It can easily get $30m considering how strong WOM is. 

[FilmBuff]

1 minute ago, Maggie said:

Disappointing.

How do you figure with a shoe-string budget?

[The Horror of Lucas Films]

2 minutes ago, Maggie said:

Disappointing.

Not really. People on the Buzz topic always said that the pre-sales for previews were looking weak, but it was killing at the OD. 

[Madhuvan]

I just hope this breaks out over the weekend. 

Very disappointed with horror movies performance since US. 

 

Audience must be really hungry for a good horror movie. 

[RealLyre]

no 30M?  can we blame coronavirus yet 

Edited February 28, 2020 by RealLyre
.

[La Binoche]

2 minutes ago, FilmBuff said:

How do you figure with a shoe-string budget?

Blumhouse always lies about budgets. Upgrade cost $12m, not $3m. IM probably cost north of $20m. Still pretty cheap, but it's not $7m. 

[The Horror of Lucas Films]

Quote

PostTrak last night for the R-rated Invisible Man showed 4 stars with a 53% definite recommend. Guys over 25 dominated at 47% last night, with 28% females over 25, 13% females under 25 and 12% under 25. Biggest quad were the 25-34 folks at 39%, with a diversity read of 49% Caucasian, 22% Hispanic, 13% Asian and 12% African American.

 

Holy fuck! That's fantastic for a Horror movie. 

[a2k]

Boy2 as a sequel did 15.53x the previews over ow (5.823/0.375)

Should TIM miss 15x or 24.75 ow? I would doubt so.

 

Don't be surprised by high-20s ow or if even it makes a run for 30m+ (18.2x+ previews).

Edited February 28, 2020 by a2k

[Maggie]

Yeah that 7M reported  budget is low. Surprised since i suppose Moss is in a position to command a hefty sum

[The Horror of Lucas Films]

3 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

no 30M?  can we blame coronavirus yet 

 

Not yet:

 

Quote

Both 2017 titles overperformed their $20M-predicted tracking at the time, with Split posting a $40M start, and Get Out taking $33.3M. Invisible Man, directed and written by Leigh Whannell, is forecasted to be in the mid to high $20M range, a solid start for the $7M net production shot with Australian tax credits, however, like Split and Get Out, it’s expected to go higher potentially in the $30M+ zone. Exits and reviews indicate that’s possible with Invisible Man‘s Rotten Tomatoes score at 92% Certified Fresh being just under Get Out‘s 98% certified fresh, but much higher than Split‘s 77% certified fresh and Halloween‘s 79% certified fresh. The RT score is key because that’s the catalyst which will persuade non-genre diehards to buy tickets.

 

 

 

 

[Madhuvan]

The Post Track ratings are fantastic. 

More women will see the movie over the weekend. 

I am confident in 28m+ OW as of now. 

[stripe]

Still thinking 30M OW is likely for this

[Maggie]

I want at least 30M. Let's goooo

[Coldbird]

11 minutes ago, The Horror of Lucas Films said:

Not really. People on the Buzz topic always said that the pre-sales for previews were looking weak, but it was killing at the OD. 

its still overall under the predictions of the buzz topic

[lorddemaxus]

15 minutes ago, a2k said:

Boy2 as a sequel did 15.53x the previews over ow (5.823/0.375)

Should TIM miss 15x or 24.75 ow? I would doubt so.

Boy 2's previews were also about 20% of The Invisible Man. I think with the WoM, The Invisible Man can do 15x but I don't see it do 18.2x. Based on posttrak, WoM is along the lines of It Chapter 2 but without the fan bias which is pretty good, but not Get Out good so I'm going with a lower IM than that movie.

Edited February 28, 2020 by lorddemaxus

[Madhuvan]

2 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Boy 2's previews were also about 20% of The Invisible Man. I think with the WoM, The Invisible Man can do 15x but I don't see it do 18.2x. WoM is along the lines of It Chapter 2 but without the fan bias which is pretty good, but not Get Out good so I'm going with a lower IM than that movie.

Wom is better than It chapter 2. That movie was not even well liked. 

[lorddemaxus]

1 minute ago, Madhuvan said:

Wom is better than It chapter 2. That movie was not even well liked. 

I'm using Posttrak score here. I'm still think B+ cinemascore. 

Edited February 28, 2020 by lorddemaxus

[Madhuvan]

Just now, lorddemaxus said:

I'm using Posttrak score here.

You are right. It 2 started with 4 stars on Thursday but dipped to 3.5 over the weekend. 

 

Let's see what happens to Invisible Man.