Weekend Thread: Actuals - Invisible Man 28.2, Sonic 16.26, Call of the Wild 13.36

[Blaze Heatnix]

These are just the visible numbers.

 

The numbers are higher, but most of them are invisible. I wouldn't worry about it. Most of the predictions will miss the invisible numbers and performance.

[RealLyre]

9 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

I'm using Posttrak score here. I'm still think B+ cinemascore. 

isn't B+ the best thing most horror movies get? (besides stuff from James Wan)

[Madhuvan]

Just now, RealLyre said:

isn't B+ the best thing most horror movies get? (besides stuff from James Wan)

Conjuring Universe is very Audience friendly. 

While they are good horror movies, they are also very simplistic. 

 

No wonder it is the most loved Horror franchise. 

[RealLyre]

1 minute ago, Madhuvan said:

Conjuring Universe is very Audience friendly. 

While they are good horror movies, they are also very simplistic. 

 

No wonder it is the most loved Horror franchise. 

the James Wan Conjuring movies are top tier in their genre. 

[filmlover]

Been expecting a $20-25M opening for a while so it's looking to be right on track.

[Valonqar]

33 minutes ago, The Horror of Lucas Films said:

Not really. People on the Buzz topic always said that the pre-sales for previews were looking weak, but it was killing at the OD. 

yes this. 

[sfran43]

Well deserved!

 

 

Edited February 28, 2020 by sfran43

[Maxmoser3]

Similar to Get Out there’s not really any comparisons to compare Invisible Man’s preview number and gross. Don’t Breathe maybe it’s best opening perhaps? So $25-$27 million OW? That’s a great start for a small budget horror film and really when you consider it as a horror remake that’s great! 

[Valonqar]

35 minutes ago, The Horror of Lucas Films said:

 

Holy fuck! That's fantastic for a Horror movie. 

yup and also big turnout from Asians. They are coming. 

[charlie Jatinder]

I think 7.5mn true Friday seems about it.

[The Horror of Lucas Films]

27 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Boy 2's previews were also about 20% of The Invisible Man. I think with the WoM, The Invisible Man can do 15x but I don't see it do 18.2x. Based on posttrak, WoM is along the lines of It Chapter 2 but without the fan bias which is pretty good, but not Get Out good so I'm going with a lower IM than that movie.

 

You just can't give up, can't you? You've been trying to bring this movie down for weeks.

 

Even a shit SEQUEL with bad WOM like INDISIOUS 4 got a 15.0x off previews.

 

And you want me to believe that TIM can't have a better multiple than it?

 

We will see. 

[Valonqar]

5 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I think 7.5mn true Friday seems about it.

oh, wow, that's 500K above the budget.  Will start making profit by Sunday.

Edited February 28, 2020 by Valonqar

[The Horror of Lucas Films]

9 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

yup and also big turnout from Asians. They are coming. 

It's hitting every single demo which bodes well for legs. 

[Valonqar]

Just now, The Horror of Lucas Films said:

It's hitting every single demo which bodes well for legs. 

agreed. 

[Madhuvan]

6 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I think 7.5mn true Friday seems about it.

Not good for 30m opening. 

 

9m Friday 

10m Saturday 

6m Sunday

 

25m OW. 

Let's see if it can go higher than this throughout the weekend. 

[The Horror of Lucas Films]

1 minute ago, Valonqar said:

oh, wow, that's 500K above the budget. 

We need to remember it is an Horror movie, these movies always keep increasing on estimates during the weekend, look at Split, for example:

 

After previews came in:

 

Quote

is expected to have a mid-$20M three-day as the buzz surrounded the film has been growing among its core audience of young females and unaided awareness is very strong.

Friday night:

 

Quote

Split is heading high today — very high — in early matinees with industry observers now thinking the psychological thriller from M. Night Shyamalan and Blumhouse/Universal could is looking to push into the mid-$30Ms — as in $37.5M — right now. 

Saturday:

 

Quote

Split will see a No. 1 debut of anywhere between $35M and $39M+ (depending on its drop today), making it Shyamalan’s 4th best opening of all-time

Sunday:

 

Quote

 Split, the psychological thriller from horrormeister Blumhouse and put into market by the well-oiled marketing and distribution team at Universal Pictures, was a monster in its debut, grabbing $40M for director M. Night Shyamalan

https://deadline.com/2017/01/split-xxx-return-of-xander-cage-the-founder-late-night-thursday-previews-box-office-1201889940/

 

I can see the same happening to TIM, WOM seems to be on par with Split. 

[Valonqar]

yeah, I expect OD increase too because horror is a) walk up driven so full number won't show in PS and b) people like to watch later at night so earlier estimates will be lower.

 

and then of course WOM over the weekend.

 

 

Edited February 28, 2020 by Valonqar

[Krissykins]

Anything over $20m is really great

[DAJK]

There’s a post I want to make about Parasite (positive, don’t worry) but it’s a bit on the long side and I want to think it out, so I might not write it up until after class

[charlie Jatinder]

22 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

oh, wow, that's 500K above the budget.  Will start making profit by Sunday.

 

The film basically will need $110-120mn worldwide gross to earn profit.