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Weekend Thread: Friday #s - Onward 12.1, Invisible Man 4.3, Way Back 2.6 | Blame It On the Roni

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7 minutes ago, John Marston said:

If Mulan flops Black Widow is moving. 

At this point, I feel confident in saying that Mulan's opening weekend domestic, if it still happens in 19 days, will be below Onward's OW. Based on the available data, we should have somewhere around 10,000-15,000 diagnosed cases across the country by that point, and that's the floor. Given how little testing we have now, it's impossible to know how many cases are circulating at the moment, which would translate into disproportionately (compared to nations with full testing capability) higher rates cases being found (once those undiagnosed cases translate into diagnosed community spread).

 

So yeah, I'm ballparking 10k-15k cases diagnosed by the time Mulan is scheduled to release.

 

Who wants to guess how that would affect the box office? My prognosis: Muy no bueno.

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24 minutes ago, john2000 said:

i dont think that os has that

Overseas wasnt the reason for a Wednesday release. The overseas markets each behave differently and therefore there is not a firm "every film opens the same way" some markets only have Saturday/Sunday as the weekend (Japan) and then others have extended multiple days as the weekend (UK ends up with a lot of these). Makes direct comparisons harder to actually engage. 

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8 minutes ago, narniadis said:

Overseas wasnt the reason for a Wednesday release. The overseas markets each behave differently and therefore there is not a firm "every film opens the same way" some markets only have Saturday/Sunday as the weekend (Japan) and then others have extended multiple days as the weekend (UK ends up with a lot of these). Makes direct comparisons harder to actually engage. 

yeah that too

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Also March is kinda a dumping ground month this year it feels like. However, March has been notorious for mid-range films and  dumping slump. Examples of that include 2004 and 2008. 2014. 2011, 2018, 2005, 2003, 2001, and 1999, all of the Match titles either just snuck past $150 million(2014) and fell below $150 million  Or just over $100-$136 million.

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3 hours ago, Ipickthiswhiterose said:

 

I don't know if this is trying to be a serious answer but he was in a move that was virtually the exact same as the Joker the year before and it made no money whatsoever. 

 

None of his movies before Joker had made money for years and years. And if Joker was exactly the same but called 'Arthur' it would have had the same fate.  

 

Also, are people ignoring the fact that Ford V Ferrari wasn't actually a hit?

It was a hit in terms of expectations and its Domestic gross. Domestically it did great, it's just that the international take was definitely a disappointment. It made $225m WW. I'd say it's about at break even. With ancillaries and whatnot, I think it'll breakeven and even make some money. It was a success for Fox/Disney after the terrible year they had.

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2 hours ago, OncomingStorm93 said:

At this point, I feel confident in saying that Mulan's opening weekend domestic, if it still happens in 19 days, will be below Onward's OW. Based on the available data, we should have somewhere around 10,000-15,000 diagnosed cases across the country by that point, and that's the floor. Given how little testing we have now, it's impossible to know how many cases are circulating at the moment, which would translate into disproportionately (compared to nations with full testing capability) higher rates cases being found (once those undiagnosed cases translate into diagnosed community spread).

 

So yeah, I'm ballparking 10k-15k cases diagnosed by the time Mulan is scheduled to release.

 

Who wants to guess how that would affect the box office? My prognosis: Muy no bueno.

I disagree but we'll see. South Korea already has seen cases drop let's hope ours does the same that quickly. You very well could be right but hope you are wrong . I'm flying to sfo at the end of the month so I may have to cancel a TON of stuff :(

 

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1 hour ago, cdsacken said:

I disagree but we'll see. South Korea already has seen cases drop let's hope ours does the same that quickly. You very well could be right but hope you are wrong . I'm flying to sfo at the end of the month so I may have to cancel a TON of stuff :(

 

CDC just told people to expect the number to go up considerablyin the next ew weeks.This is not ending anytime soon.

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9 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Anyways ugh numbers. 10.5. weekend. $36.3mn FSS. Weakest Pixar opening since A Bugs Life.

Jeez, talk about an over-predicted estimate 

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2 hours ago, dudalb said:

CDC just told people to expect the number to go up considerablyin the next ew weeks.This is not ending anytime soon.

Well we have to actually test people first 😡..my wife is pissed. She works in the ER she can't test anyone. 

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7 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

2.65 + 36.3 = 38.95

 

39M actual wasn't out of the question. 

5 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

The estimate is just 37.35 FSS

I thought Charlie added thursday to his FSS. Sorry

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2 minutes ago, TMP said:

I thought Charlie added thursday to his FSS. Sorry

It was a bit of an unorthodox stat, especially without a “true” for emphasis. I think the point was to compare more fairly with Thanksgiving Pixar openings which have 0 preview component.

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