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Weekend Thread: Friday #s - Onward 12.1, Invisible Man 4.3, Way Back 2.6 | Blame It On the Roni

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7 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

I think the point was to compare more fairly with Thanksgiving Pixar openings which have 0 preview component

Yep. It's worse than The Good Dinosaur, though to be fair, Thanksgiving films have boosted Friday, it's like having 2 Saturdays.

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Honestly, I'm okay with Onward flopping (even if I end up really loving it) AS LONG AS...

 

studios don't take this as a "expensive original movies are a bad idea" lesson. 

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8 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Honestly, I'm okay with Onward flopping (even if I end up really loving it) AS LONG AS...

 

studios don't take this as a "expensive original movies are a bad idea" lesson. 


It’s a lesson they’ve already learned. 

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13 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Honestly, I'm okay with Onward flopping (even if I end up really loving it) AS LONG AS...

 

studios don't take this as a "expensive original movies are a bad idea" lesson. 

I think oddly enough the covid uncertainty will blunt that effect.   
 

Tele is right though, it’s a lesson they’ve already learned many times over.

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5 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

I think oddly enough the covid uncertainty will blunt that effect.   
 

Tele is right though, it’s a lesson they’ve already learned many times over.

Fair, but at least we still ARE getting big original movies (ahem Onward, Soul from the same studio). I don't want Pixar to think they have to resort to sequels in order to make money.

 

I mean, we're also getting Tenet this year. 

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Having watched Bloodshot, I'm curious about what CinemaScore is this movie getting.  It's awful in a good/cheesy way ( imo ) like Mortal Kombat Annihilation / Blade Trinity, but I know many will hate it for being confusing ( it's written by Jeff Wadlow ).

 

I'm also curious about The Hunt's CinemaScore. I haven't watched the movie yet, but are politics gonna hurt it depending on which audience is getting polled? No idea.

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3 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Fair, but at least we still ARE getting big original movies (ahem Onward, Soul from the same studio). I don't want Pixar to think they have to resort to sequels in order to make money.

 

I mean, we're also getting Tenet this year. 

I don't see Pixar making only sequels nor do I think Disney will force them to stop original films. A successful new IP is just as important as an established one.

 

 

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7 minutes ago, Blaze Heatnix said:

Having watched Bloodshot, I'm curious about what CinemaScore is this movie getting.  It's awful in a good/cheesy way ( imo ) like Mortal Kombat Annihilation / Blade Trinity, but I know many will hate it for being confusing ( it's written by Jeff Wadlow ).

 


And Eric Heisserer. 

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I do have to admit, at least at the domestic box office, I wonder how much of an effect COVID19 really had on Onward's performance. BOM's write-up pretty much sums up what I had been thinking before, that while Onward sorta underperformed this weekend, pretty much everything else posted numbers that were in line with, if not slightly better, than expected. 

 

I don't think we can attribute fear around a virus as the main cause of 1 movie's underperformance when it doesn't seem like the rest of the (domestic) box office was affected too much. Sure, could Onward have done 41-42M under normal circumstances? Sure, but I don't think this would ever have done 55-60M+ OW honestly, virus or no virus. 

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1 hour ago, DAJK said:

I do have to admit, at least at the domestic box office, I wonder how much of an effect COVID19 really had on Onward's performance. BOM's write-up pretty much sums up what I had been thinking before, that while Onward sorta underperformed this weekend, pretty much everything else posted numbers that were in line with, if not slightly better, than expected. 

 

I don't think we can attribute fear around a virus as the main cause of 1 movie's underperformance when it doesn't seem like the rest of the (domestic) box office was affected too much. Sure, could Onward have done 41-42M under normal circumstances? Sure, but I don't think this would ever have done 55-60M+ OW honestly, virus or no virus. 

I will say at least in my family we usually watch all the Disney new releases together and I asked them are we gonna go see this one and they said absolutely not.  They don't want to go anywhere with large crowds. We also live in Tampa where there are confirmed 5 cases of the virus.

 

Instead we binge watched Love is Blind. The streaming services must be doing great numbers thanks to this virus.

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17 minutes ago, Cappoedameron said:

I will say at least in my family we usually watch all the Disney new releases together and I asked them are we gonna go see this one and they said absolutely not.  They don't want to go anywhere with large crowds. We also live in Tampa where there are confirmed 5 cases of the virus.

 

Instead we binge watched Love is Blind. The streaming services must be doing great numbers thanks to this virus.

Interesting, and yes I'm not suggesting that the virus would have played NO factor, but not all families will think alike, plus the number of (confirmed) cases to my knowledge is still in the 100s rather than 1000s or 100000s in the United States (and Canada) meaning that there are many many regions that are unaffected at all. 

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Wonder how many days over 1M we’re looking at here. I’ll guess 5

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I do think Coronavirus is definitely an influence at the box office domestically. Movies that only made a million dollars over the course of 3 days made it into the top 10. That's not a good sign of theater attendance.

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So, Disney is probably not delaying any movie. 

 

Mulam will have critics screening om Monday. 

Black Widow new trailer + Ticket sales also on Monday. 

 

What can be the reason behind Disney not delaying any movie? 

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Just now, Madhuvan said:

What can be the reason behind Disney not delaying any movie? 

To be fair, Bond had tickets on sale before the delay too...

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MTC also looks like 33% drop. 

 

MTC1 - overall 4504 shows 156948/839440 1929877.06 1668790.58 post 6PM 1839 shows 45264/353260 652653.22 536334.58

MTC2 - overall 4268 shows 166153/668106 1606382.93 1377902.33 post 6PM 1512 shows 34420/245428 383141.21 291120.21

 

Not worth tracking any more. We are anyway looking at a period of horrible BO. 

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1 hour ago, Cappoedameron said:

I will say at least in my family we usually watch all the Disney new releases together and I asked them are we gonna go see this one and they said absolutely not.  They don't want to go anywhere with large crowds. We also live in Tampa where there are confirmed 5 cases of the virus.

 

Instead we binge watched Love is Blind. The streaming services must be doing great numbers thanks to this virus.

I wouldn't be surprised if some 2020 blockbusters end up releasing on Disney+/HBO Max... if things get as bad as it looks at the moment. Studios would lose the (awful) box office theatrical run but get major buzz for their new streaming services at a time people will be desperate for home entertainment.

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2 hours ago, DAJK said:

I do have to admit, at least at the domestic box office, I wonder how much of an effect COVID19 really had on Onward's performance. BOM's write-up pretty much sums up what I had been thinking before, that while Onward sorta underperformed this weekend, pretty much everything else posted numbers that were in line with, if not slightly better, than expected. 

 

I don't think we can attribute fear around a virus as the main cause of 1 movie's underperformance when it doesn't seem like the rest of the (domestic) box office was affected too much. Sure, could Onward have done 41-42M under normal circumstances? Sure, but I don't think this would ever have done 55-60M+ OW honestly, virus or no virus. 

Counter-argument: I feel like the holds could have been better. Sonic and COTW I get, even if the latter was skewed more towards seniors. But Emma was in sub-1500 theaters, and The Way Back probably got one mid-size screen at most at theaters, and only Bad Boys and Jumanji had sub-40% holds. Invisible Man could have dropped sub-40, maybe not easy, but it has similar reception to stuff like A Quiet Place or Split, and even though Birds of Prey and 1917 saw a decent theater loss, I feel like both could have dropped a bit less.

 

Not to mention, cases and news about the Roni have popped up a lot over the weekend. Maybe it wasn't super noticeable, but I don't think the rest of the weekend was as non-affected by the Roni as you might think. And hey, considering Charlie's earlier numbers, I wouldn't be surprised if estimates go down a couple pegs.

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My rough sense is that there was a covid impact this weekend, but very minor. Maybe 2-6% range (numbers notional). In particular I would be very surprised if Washington State had totally normal box office this weekend.    
 

In Monday and Tuesday’s grosses I think it will be very obvious for the first time. And I hope so as well. Box office is an (imperfect) proxy variable for how seriously the American public is taking individual scale voluntary social distancing. At this point the earlier we see it coming down, the better it will be for national health in the long-run.

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I would not go to a plex until this settles down and at this point I dont see that happening in the near future if most folks  are not even tested. Just reading r/coronavirus gives me chills. We are truly fucked having elected this guy. 

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