Weekend Thread: Friday #s - Onward 12.1, Invisible Man 4.3, Way Back 2.6 | Blame It On the Roni

[Legion Again]

Yeah my personal theater going is over until at least June. If BW holds its date (hah!) it would be the first MCU movie I didn’t see on preview night since... Doctor Strange?

[TMP]

3 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

Yeah my personal theater going is over until at least June. If BW holds its date (hah!) it would be the first MCU movie I didn’t see on preview night since... Doctor Strange?

On the bright side you could do a black widow/wonder woman double feature lol

[Legion Again]

2 minutes ago, TMP said:

On the bright side you could do a black widow/wonder woman double feature lol

WW previews: June 4 (?)

 

My birthday: June 3  

 

Sooooo close

[DAJK]

1 hour ago, Eric Lightfoot said:

Counter-argument: I feel like the holds could have been better. Sonic and COTW I get, even if the latter was skewed more towards seniors. But Emma was in sub-1500 theaters, and The Way Back probably got one mid-size screen at most at theaters, and only Bad Boys and Jumanji had sub-40% holds. Invisible Man could have dropped sub-40, maybe not easy, but it has similar reception to stuff like A Quiet Place or Split, and even though Birds of Prey and 1917 saw a decent theater loss, I feel like both could have dropped a bit less.

 

Not to mention, cases and news about the Roni have popped up a lot over the weekend. Maybe it wasn't super noticeable, but I don't think the rest of the weekend was as non-affected by the Roni as you might think. And hey, considering Charlie's earlier numbers, I wouldn't be surprised if estimates go down a couple pegs.

Fair, but saying "I feel like XYZ could have done better" isn't exactly a compelling counter-argument. And I'm not downplaying it in light of my argument, since mine was pretty much the same thing in a sense "I feel like holds woulda been worse if covid had an impact". I think the point here is that we really don't know, and we won't really know unless we interviewed everyone in the US which is why saying things like "covid definitely had an impact" or "definitely didn't" is difficult when in reality we don't exactly have a whole lot of empirical data telling us one or the other. 

[sfran43]

 

 

[sfran43]

 

[john2000]

5 minutes ago, sfran43 said:

 

well i am sure the virus, has an impact, still the holdovers held normal ,anyways

Edited March 9, 2020 by john2000

[a2k]

if films catering to kids and older audiences take a hit in legs, am prone to think it's the covid affect. those demos leg it very well usually and they happen to more vulnerable to the virus.

[john2000]

4 minutes ago, a2k said:

if films catering to kids and older audiences take a hit in legs, am prone to think it's the covid affect. those demos leg it very well usually and they happen to more vulnerable to the virus.

agreed, even though we have examples where animated movies didnt have good legs

[Madhuvan]

Historic Market crash all over the world. 

This is before America even report the actual people affected. 

Box office is 100% going down from next week. 

[sfran43]

 

[narniadis]

Adding to @Eric Lightfoot and his comments about some small depression this weekend, I commented on Saturday that the Friday increases for non family films were depressed somewhat even when accouting for theater drops. So the argument that the holds while good could have been better is definitely there. 

Onward was going to "fumble" and that data was obvious before the virus so even putting its performance aside, holds this weekend were ok but not the best they could have been. 

[john2000]

15 minutes ago, narniadis said:

Adding to @Eric Lightfoot and his comments about some small depression this weekend, I commented on Saturday that the Friday increases for non family films were depressed somewhat even when accouting for theater drops. So the argument that the holds while good could have been better is definitely there. 

Onward was going to "fumble" and that data was obvious before the virus so even putting its performance aside, holds this weekend were ok but not the best they could have been. 

i would say, that both claims as of now are claims, we need more info to know for sure

[cedec0]

12 hours ago, MrGlass2 said:

I wouldn't be surprised if some 2020 blockbusters end up releasing on Disney+/HBO Max... if things get as bad as it looks at the moment. Studios would lose the (awful) box office theatrical run but get major buzz for their new streaming services at a time people will be desperate for home entertainment.

I keep hearing about Studios releasing directly to streaming, and I am skeptical for one central reason:  piracy. 

 

If a movie opens in theaters, the alternatives are:  (pirating VS paying)

 

free crappy cam + poor sound  VS  costly full theater experience

 

If a movie opens on streaming, the alternatives are:  (pirating VS paying)

 

free HQ home experience  VS  costly HQ home experience

 

 

Releasing a movie on streaming will allow pirating high quality versions of the movie on day 1.   I think releasing movies on stream would turn a lot of people to piracy, especially is we a have a corona related recession.

Edited March 9, 2020 by cedec0

[MrGlass2]

13 minutes ago, cedec0 said:

Releasing a movie on streaming will allow pirating high quality versions of the movie on day 1.   I think releasing movies on stream would turn a lot of people to piracy, especially is we a have a corona related recession.

Well piracy is increasing again in the streaming era, it is already happening. But it has nothing to do with the coronavirus, or whether some big studio movies will or should be released on streaming in the next few months. Piracy is a different problem that will persist even when things go back to normal.

 

And it doesn't matter if the leak is high quality or not, if most theaters are closed. People are just not going to leave their homes, BO revenue will crash regardless.

Edited March 9, 2020 by MrGlass2

[cedec0]

6 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said:

But it has nothing to do with the coronavirus

Coronavirus is probably going to cause a recession, and during recession people try to pinch pennies.  Pirating content is one way to save money.  

 

13 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said:

And it doesn't matter if the leak is high quality or not, if most theaters are closed. People are just not going to leave their homes, BO revenue will crash regardless.

Well, yes.  I see what you are saying.  I just don't see releasing major movies to streaming as a viable replacement to theaters during non-corona times.

 

I believe that there is a significant and growing percentage of the population (especially younger people) that pirate everything but still pay money to go to the theater because they can't stand poor quality cam versions of movies.  For these people, releasing movies on stream is giving it away for free.

 

[sfran43]

 

[sfran43]

 

[sfran43]

 

Edited March 9, 2020 by sfran43

[sfran43]

 

 

 

Edited March 9, 2020 by sfran43