Theatrical to VOD window shortening | 17-31 Day theatrical window for Uni

[CloneWars]

1 hour ago, lorddemaxus said:

Thinking more about it, this AMC deal is shit. If other chains want the same deal as AMC, Universal is gonna end up getting practically nothing from PVOD sales (unless of course they increase the price by a substantial amount) and if other chains don't want the same deal, this AMC deal isn't gonna matter at all. This seemed like a good idea on paper but the logistics of it is completely messed up. 

Well, here's the thing. Now Universal will stream their movies early and that means AMC will get a cut but other theaters won't. Now, they can choose to not show Universal movies, but all that means is AMC gets an exclusive three-weekend window on Universal films and they lose profits. In addition, this puts other corps in a position to negotiate with AMC. If every studio cuts a deal with AMC then the other chains are screwed out of PVOD profits. The most likley outcome is that the other studios make deals with all the chains but give something like 5% profit per chain and maybe 1% or less for even smaller chains. Let's face it, if studios want to shrink the window, they are going to shrink the window and nothing exhibitors do can change that. AMC was smart to actually take this deal, and I do think it changes things.

[Barnack]

59 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

If other chains want the same deal as AMC, Universal is gonna end up getting practically nothing from PVOD sales

I extremely doubt that, specially for sales that does not occur on the theater chain platforms, Paramount was apparently giving between 2 to 4% to AMC and Cineplex together when they experimented the 17 days windows in 2015 on Zombie Apocalypse and Paranormal Activity.

[Barnack]

2 minutes ago, CloneWars said:

Well, here's the thing. Now Universal will stream their movies early and that means AMC will get a cut but other theaters won't. Now, they can choose to not show Universal movies, but all that means is AMC gets an exclusive three-weekend window on Universal films and they lose profits. In addition, this puts other corps in a position to negotiate with AMC. If every studio cuts a deal with AMC then the other chains are screwed out of PVOD profits. The most likley outcome is that the other studios make deals with all the chains but give something like 5% profit per chain and maybe 1% or less for even smaller chains. Let's face it, if studios want to shrink the window, they are going to shrink the window and nothing exhibitors do can change that. AMC was smart to actually take this deal, and I do think it changes things.

Depend what you call stream, VOD-rental and finally stream windows should be unchanged by this, at least at first.

 

This will not use profits, it will point on gross revenues.

[lorddemaxus]

2 minutes ago, CloneWars said:

 The most likley outcome is that the other studios make deals with all the chains but give something like 5% profit per chain and maybe 1% or less for even smaller chains.

That's way too little for any chain to agree with a deal like this. And exhibitors are important for studio. They can't just shrink the window and get the same kind of revenue they do with a normal theatrical window. This AMC deal isn't just AMC bending over backwards to Universal but also Universal bending over backwards to AMC.

[Barnack]

12 minutes ago, wildphantom said:

By the time they dish out their percentages to the theaters and video distributors they’ll be left with less as a cut than they do from the cinemas! Let alone at an average lower sale per ticket (if you consider a family of four for example)

The wall street analysts is saying otherwise, it should be higher margin, it could very well be less than 5% of the sales going to NATO and I do not know for PVOD model but on EST studio was getting back giant proportions of the sales:

https://variety.com/2013/biz/news/dvd-sales-decline-effect-studios-1200600256/

Still, the margin on EST is so much greater than on its digital counterparts that studios can’t ignore it. At an investor’s day earlier this year, Time Warner disclosed that HD EST contributed $17.50 per transaction — $14 more than what VOD gets, and $16 more than SVOD.

 

Now for sure if many are watching it should be less money. 

 

Small independant can have revenues sharing deal with the Itunes and the world and giving away large %, but major studio should get away with low % for high priced affair, there is a lot of competition right now (and sometime the studio own the cable box selling them).

Edited July 29, 2020 by Barnack

[Barnack]

5 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

That's way too little for any chain to agree with a deal like this. And exhibitors are important for studio. They can't just shrink the window and get the same kind of revenue they do with a normal theatrical window. This AMC deal isn't just AMC bending over backwards to Universal but also Universal bending over backwards to AMC.

When they tried in 2015 it was between 2 to 4% from the different source of revenues, apparently, it is not necessarily bad money for 0 work and 0 expense, how much they got in % of the movie ticket sales could be different as well when they agree to continue to play it.

 

Considering more healthy theater chain is saying the deal seem to make no sense for them and how close to bankruptcy they are, I am not sure AMC have a lot of power to make studio bend backwards.

[lorddemaxus]

12 minutes ago, Barnack said:

Considering more healthy theater chain is saying the deal seem to make no sense for them and how close to bankruptcy they are, I am not sure AMC have a lot of power to make studio bend backwards.

I have a hard time believing that AMC agreed to this deal if it was so little. 2-4% of a 20 dollars rental is less than a dollar for each rental. Unless studios start offering enormous amounts, I have a hard time seeing this be the route they go.

 

I did see someone mention a virtual exhibitor route where moviegoers pay through exhibitors to rent PVOD films (and I assume cinemas get the typical 50%), but again, this is gonna be hard to implement espescially since it leaves the big PVOD players out. And it also leaves out concession sales for chains which are very important.

Edited July 29, 2020 by lorddemaxus

[Eric Duncan]

 

[lorddemaxus]

Disney doesn't like this. Mixed reactions from international exhibitors.

 

 

[Barnack]

1 hour ago, lorddemaxus said:

I have a hard time believing that AMC agreed to this deal if it was so little. 2-4% of a 20 dollars rental is less than a dollar for each rental. Unless studios start offering enormous amounts, I have a hard time seeing this be the route they go.

 

Probably I misunderstood the coverage of that news was really unclear (because of sensational title), the previous deal I am talking about the studio had the right to release the movie on home media 17 days after the movie reached down 300 theaters, quite different than after 17 days in absolute term, smaller you ask for the window the more you need to give back.

 

Here it is clearer:

https://www.iphoneincanada.ca/news/paramount-to-bring-theater-movies-to-on-demand-early/

 

At least for less in trouble theater chain, they will ask for the pie to be much more than that.

 

 

[CloneWars]

5 hours ago, Barnack said:

Probably I misunderstood the coverage of that news was really unclear (because of sensational title), the previous deal I am talking about the studio had the right to release the movie on home media 17 days after the movie reached down 300 theaters, quite different than after 17 days in absolute term, smaller you ask for the window the more you need to give back.

 

Here it is clearer:

https://www.iphoneincanada.ca/news/paramount-to-bring-theater-movies-to-on-demand-early/

 

At least for less in trouble theater chain, they will ask for the pie to be much more than that.

 

 

Disney only releases blockbusters. For other studios, this might work out well for them. In the end, I expect 17 days to be the norm for non-blockbuster titles with all studios. Bigger films will play longer. Other films will go to video after a short run.

[Eric Duncan]

23 hours ago, Eric Sparrow said:

Apple

1. The Rental

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3. The Outpost

4. Trolls World Tour

5. Scoob!

6. The Invisible Man

7. Bad Boys for Life

8. Extra Ordinary

9. John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum

10. The High Note

 

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4. Game Night

5. Sonic the Hedgehog

6. Bad Boys for Life

7. Jumanji: The Next Level

8. The Gentlemen

9. The Addams Family

10. Mr. Jones

Apple

1. You Should Have Left

2. The Rental

3. Trolls World Tour

4. The Outpost

5. Extra Ordinary

6. Scoob!

7. John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum

8. Yes, God, Yes

9. The Current War: Director's Cut

10. Deep Blue Sea 3

 

Amazon

1. The Greatest Showman

2. Trolls World Tour

3. The King of Staten Island

4. Game Night

5. Bad Boys for Life

6. John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum

7. Sonic the Hedgehog

8. Jumanji: The Next Level

9. The Gentlemen

10. Mr. Jones

[CloneWars]

2 minutes ago, Eric Sparrow said:

Apple

1. You Should Have Left

2. The Rental

3. Trolls World Tour

4. The Outpost

5. Extra Ordinary

6. Scoob!

7. John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum

8. Yes, God, Yes

9. The Current War: Director's Cut

10. Deep Blue Sea 3

 

Amazon

1. The Greatest Showman

2. Trolls World Tour

3. The King of Staten Island

4. Game Night

5. Bad Boys for Life

6. John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum

7. Sonic the Hedgehog

8. Jumanji: The Next Level

9. The Gentlemen

10. Mr. Jones

The Greatest Showman is a surprise. Wonder why it's taking off again? I guess it will only further boost D+ subscribers in two weeks.

[Barnack]

1 minute ago, CloneWars said:

The Greatest Showman is a surprise. Wonder why it's taking off again? I guess it will only further boost D+ subscribers in two weeks.

I am not sure if it ever lived much since the pandemy, it is probably goes to the top when the more of the moment newer release that goes over calm down.

[Eric Duncan]

13 minutes ago, CloneWars said:

The Greatest Showman is a surprise. Wonder why it's taking off again? I guess it will only further boost D+ subscribers in two weeks.

It's been a constant in Amazon's top 10 since I've started tracking these lists. I'm not entirely sure why, especially because it doesn't pop up on Apple or any other charts from what I can see, but I don't really care enough to check.

[RealLyre]

7 hours ago, lorddemaxus said:

Disney doesn't like this. Mixed reactions from international exhibitors.

 

 

im kinda shocked that theater owners and a major studio (that specializes with blockbusters) are not happy with a deal that makes them make less money.

 

 

Quote

“The only thing that’s guaranteed for AMC is it’s not going to drive more people into their cinemas; it will drive more people to [premium video on-demand]. I can’t see them making much money on this,” the source said.

 

I like how these people don't give two shits about consumer convenience if it means they won't make as much money as they used to before.

[antovolk]

"Universal cannot announce a film will launch on PVOD platforms until after the second weekend of its theatrical release" - interesting...

 

 

[Eric Duncan]

https://deadline.com/2020/07/universal-amc-theatrical-window-collapse-jeff-shell-comments-1202999394/

 

Quote

The hope for NBCUniversal CEO Jeff Shell in the studio’s new unprecedented 17-day theatrical window collapse-PVOD deal with AMC Theatres is to make more money in the post theatrical windows which have waned in recent years.

 

 

“Movies are our lifeblood,” said the NBCUniversal pro-PVOD exec, “Over the last couple of years, it’s become more increasingly difficult to generate the same returns over the first couple of windows. We believe the new model in the U.S. will restore some of those economics, probably not make more movies, but keep production levels the same as in the past.”

 

“Long-term we’ve always believed that there’s a growing segment of the population out there who doesn’t go to movie theaters. This structure with AMC allows us to take advantage of people who do go to the movie theaters, 17 days of exclusivity at minimum for theaters, but very soon after in the same marketing window, we can tap into that very large audience who doesn’t go to movie theaters, but is just going to SVOD to watch movies. And that’s within the marketing window of the giant marketing we spend that goes to theatrical. So, we think this structure allows us to tap into this incremental revenue stream, allowing AMC to share in it a little bit, and other exhibitors and at the same time preserve that theatrical window which is so critical to the film business.”

 

But let’s not forget the pandemic, that’s the other reason why Universal and AMC hammered this deal out. If the big movie theaters are going to open slowly in the pandemic, box office receipts are poised to be smaller, at least that’s the assumption from industry sources.

 

“In the shorter term, we’re caught in a chicken-egg situation in the theatrical business,” explained Shell today, “we think this model will actually allow movies to come back to theaters a lot more quickly then they would have in the current environment.”

 

Shell emphasized that the 17-day theatrical window was not a one-size-fits-all approach to distributing movies. That’s just the minimum time.

 

“I anticipate movies will stay in theaters longer than 17 days. Judd Apatow’s The King of Staten Island is a perfect type of film that could thrive in this type of model…That would be a 17-day normal time…we can toggle that based on the type of movie.”

 

[wildphantom]

17 hours ago, CloneWars said:

Disney only releases blockbusters. For other studios, this might work out well for them. In the end, I expect 17 days to be the norm for non-blockbuster titles with all studios. Bigger films will play longer. Other films will go to video after a short run.

But what’s the incentive for people to even go out and see the ‘smaller’ films? 
why go if they can watch it at home 17 days later? How is that good for theaters, let alone the studio who will make less money anyway!? 
 

the current model worked great for everybody. I could understand the window shortening to 60 days maybe, but 17 days would surely fundamentally change the habits of moviegoing forever. And for what? 

[Eric Duncan]

On 7/30/2020 at 12:33 AM, Eric Sparrow said:

Apple

1. You Should Have Left

2. The Rental

3. Trolls World Tour

4. The Outpost

5. Extra Ordinary

6. Scoob!

7. John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum

8. Yes, God, Yes

9. The Current War: Director's Cut

10. Deep Blue Sea 3

 

Amazon

1. The Greatest Showman

2. Trolls World Tour

3. The King of Staten Island

4. Game Night

5. Bad Boys for Life

6. John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum

7. Sonic the Hedgehog

8. Jumanji: The Next Level

9. The Gentlemen

10. Mr. Jones

Apple

1. You Should Have Left

2. The Rental

3. Trolls World Tour

4. The Outpost

5. Extra Ordinary

6. Scoob!

7. The Current War: Director's Cut

8. Yes, God, Yes

9. John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum

10. Sonic the Hedgehog

 

Amazon

1. The Greatest Showman

2. Trolls World Tour

3. The King of Staten Island

4. Game Night

5. Bad Boys for Life

6. John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum

7. Jumanji: The Next Level

8. Sonic the Hedgehog

9. The Gentlemen

10. Spider-Man: Far From Home