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Coronavirus Movie Theatre Reopening Thread | Release Date Changes/Production News | Theaters are dead. Long live streaming!

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1 minute ago, filmlover said:

Everyone is likely waiting to see what the numbers for it are this weekend before making any further release date decisions. If it dips well below double digits (which, given how much they had to boost the opening to get to a $20M number last weekend, is likely), we'll see every tentpole begin to abandon 2020 completely on Monday.

I wouldn't be surprised if we get some date moves as early as tomorrow in the late afternoon after markets close.

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38 minutes ago, filmlover said:

They already spent a ton of marketing money on TV spots and billboards around late June/early July for the late July release date that ended up being a loss once it became apparent that we had miserably failed in containing the virus and it couldn't open. Plus there were other promotional efforts like magazines over the summer. Already seems like it was becoming a write-off for the studio even before it opened, the numbers just confirmed it would be.

 

Everyone is likely waiting to see what the numbers for it are this weekend before making any further release date decisions. If it dips well below double digits (which, given how much they had to boost the opening to get to a $20M number last weekend, is likely), we'll see every tentpole begin to abandon 2020 completely on Monday.

And ,although i have bene accused of sounding like a borken record with this, i have to think the porjections of the virus surging in Nov/Dec in the US at tleast are going to be a big factor in the decision.

To think the viurs is not goin gto surge this winter is a foolish way to bet.

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On 4/18/2020 at 8:21 PM, Eric #RIPChadwick said:

I know that people aren't going to like me saying this, and I'll admit I'm stealing this from our fellow BOT member @antovolk, but I feel like even after the vaccine drops, theaters might become more like vinyl, where it appeals more towards cinema purists. It's already started to go that way last year, and Trolls showed you could make about the same amount of money as a typical theatrical OW through VOD, where studios get an even bigger lion's share. At the very least, the theatrical window's gonna be a lot smaller once this is over.

I really hate how scary accurate this has become.

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2 hours ago, Eric #RIPChadwick said:

I really hate how scary accurate this has become.

I think at best a post-COVID theatrical landscape would bring us back to 2019 levels and then continue in the direction it was already heading. Windows get shorter, tentpoles continue to absorb the market, etc. A post-COVID resurgence I just can't see ever being a thing.

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The question is what performance for tenet gives studios hope and what mean it’s all delaying again.  Would a 10m weekend even be enough. 
 

for comparison in Australia 

 

we / total (at end of the weekend)

1: 2.5m / 3.97m

2: 1.6m / 6.26m

 

if we equate the 3.97m Weekend to the 20m (both had previews) you get a 8m which appears in line with most predictions. I am doubting this will be enough for studios to hold their release dates. Really need 12m+ For even a thought. 
 

maybe go with 1 blockbuster per 2 months ? 


 



 

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11 hours ago, filmlover said:

They already spent a ton of marketing money on TV spots and billboards around late June/early July for the late July release date that ended up being a loss once it became apparent that we had miserably failed in containing the virus and it couldn't open. Plus there were other promotional efforts like magazines over the summer. Already seems like it was becoming a write-off for the studio even before it opened, the numbers just confirmed it would be.

 

Everyone is likely waiting to see what the numbers for it are this weekend before making any further release date decisions. If it dips well below double digits (which, given how much they had to boost the opening to get to a $20M number last weekend, is likely), we'll see every tentpole begin to abandon 2020 completely on Monday.

 

So, here's the thing - that was the first major mistake. It was already very apparent that containment had failed in the US by that time, and that theaters would not be opening soon. That marketing money should never have been spent. Again, Nolan is brilliant but he was completely blind to reality. There's a reason why every other expensive movie, aside from Mulan, vacated that release window.

 

I agree 100% with your conclusion. I expect Tenet to gross a max of 7.5M DOM this weekend, and that will get the few remaining tentpoles moved to 2021. This year is done. The only movies that can exhibit profitably are the low budget variety. This isn't rocket science, though. The part that frustrates me is I've been saying this since March, and I'm no expert. Everything from the COVID numbers to polling on theater interest points to there being no opportunity this year domestically. The Tenet disaster was avoidable.

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8 hours ago, Eric #RIPChadwick said:

 

I really hate how scary accurate this has become.

 

I don't think so Eric. The failure of Mulan demonstrates that to some extent.

 

IMO It works for one film every now and again, in the current climate it is an acceptable business model. But as a long term business model, if you imagine having multiple $20-30 movies released each Friday, I don't imagine (m)any of them will do as well as they would if they got theatrical release.

 

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18 hours ago, doublejack said:

I don't know. I suppose there is some credit deserved for proving that the market is unsuitable for expensive tent poles. However, I honestly don't think anyone should have learned from the failure. What were they expecting? A miracle? Things are playing out just as many expected they would. Tenet is going to wind up a huge money loser.

That a very USA focused view right ?

 

It seem to be doing very well in many markets and considering how not use to watching old blockbuster in theater American are, if you are to release it in 2020 not sure much is lost releasing there as well instead of 6-8-12 month later.

 

If the movie would have been well received, that theatrical could have build nice momentum for the PVOD window coming up.

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5 minutes ago, sfran43 said:

 

When you start using mid budget movie from 2015 that did not nothing special there has a comparable that is not a good indication, Cinderella made 65m in China with what would be really great legs now a day (23m OW).

 

They could have use Jupiter Ascending, it opened almost exactly the same as Cinderella in China the same month.

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2 minutes ago, Barnack said:

When you start using mid budget movie from 2015 that did not nothing special there has a comparable that is not a good indication, Cinderella made 65m in China with what would be really great legs now a day (23m OW).

 

They could have use Jupiter Ascending, it opened almost exactly the same as Cinderella in China the same month.

One headline was hype, one was being realistic!😂

 

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Maybe 55 from China, 190M from current OS-C markets seems pretty generous. Just what are you expecting from DOM legs and remaining markets?   
 

I have lowered my expectation from 420 after OS debut to like 390 and I think it’s still a bit optimistic in some areas.

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Honestly if (when?) the rest of the blockbusters clear out of 2020 we'll probably see a bunch of theaters announce they're closing again and won't reopen until 2021 gets here. Might save more money turning the lights off than keeping them on for movies (Greenland, The War with Grandpa, 2 Hearts) that wouldn't sell even under normal circumstances.

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29 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Film will breakeven and is doing well Internationally. With no competition for months, this will keep running in USA and elsewhere.

  1. Gave theaters something big to play.
  2. Will benefit from low competition
  3. Will be theatrical success in long run and non-theatrical revenue will have it brekeven

Nolan proved he is KING, will almost reach near $500mn in these circumstances.

It doesn't matter if it keeps playing for months, if the showings are empty!

 

A film can be in cinemas on any given week/day, it dont mean that people are going to watch it. 

 

e.g. The Force Awakens was in wide release for 3 whole months, but in month 3 it was only making between 1-3 million per weekend.

Having worked in a cinema I can assure you that after a film has been out for long enough, at the end of its run, it plays to empty showings. Tenet will be no different.

 

 

And you are wrong that it has no competition. If there are other films being shown in cinemas, then it has competition. Films that would not be considered competition normally. But when you're talking on this very low scale, they are valid competition. 

 

For example at my local cinema, this weekend, they are showing 7 new movies including Tenet. Yeah right now Tenet is the only one of those considered "big". But if tenet has been out for 2 months, 3 months, whatever, then its appeal is going to be a lot less than it was on OW, and if you're going to the cinema, I'm sure you would consider seeing one of the other films. 

 

There is not a chance in hell that it gets even close to $500M. 

 

 

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26 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Film will breakeven and is doing well Internationally. With no competition for months, this will keep running in USA and elsewhere.

  1. Gave theaters something big to play.
  2. Will benefit from low competition
  3. Will be theatrical success in long run and non-theatrical revenue will have it brekeven

Nolan proved he is KING, will almost reach near $500mn in these circumstances.

if both Dune & WW84 get pushed to next year. I'd say WB might not be too satisfied with a 400M-500M gross for Tenet.

 

 

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