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Coronavirus Movie Theatre Reopening Thread | Release Date Changes/Production News | Theaters are dead. Long live streaming!

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Predictable, just like that it will move again when it becomes painfully obvious a December release date is a no-go.

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2 hours ago, Barnack said:

That a very USA focused view right ?

 

It seem to be doing very well in many markets and considering how not use to watching old blockbuster in theater American are, if you are to release it in 2020 not sure much is lost releasing there as well instead of 6-8-12 month later.

 

If the movie would have been well received, that theatrical could have build nice momentum for the PVOD window coming up.

Yes, absolutely. It is based on the percentage of a movie's gross that goes to the studio. That largely comes from the US domestic market.

 

I just don't see how an expensive movie can turn a profit between international box office, a small domestic box office take, and PVOD revenue. That's why I'm saying 2020 is done. Only smaller budget films are suitable for release in the present global conditions. It's going to be like this for quite a while.

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We won't be getting any major releases until at least NYC and LA indoor theaters are allowed to open. One of the main reasons they said The King's Man moved back again the other week was that they had no time to give it a proper marketing campaign (Tenet lucked out there because a lot of marketing money had already been spent while it kept changing release dates).

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1 hour ago, Arendelle Legion said:

Maybe 55 from China, 190M from current OS-C markets seems pretty generous. Just what are you expecting from DOM legs and remaining markets?   
 

I have lowered my expectation from 420 after OS debut to like 390 and I think it’s still a bit optimistic in some areas.

 

I gotta be honest, I even feel 350m would be a good result at this rate because I'm thinking the US is not gonna be able to get much further past 60m. 

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40 minutes ago, MrPink said:

 

I gotta be honest, I even feel 350m would be a good result at this rate because I'm thinking the US is not gonna be able to get much further past 60m. 

If I’m not being optimistic I end up somewhere more like 340, yeah.

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1 hour ago, doublejack said:

I just don't see how an expensive movie can turn a profit between international box office, a small domestic box office take, and PVOD revenue.

Many big movie would have turn a profit with $0 domestic box office revenues, world "TV" revenues tend to be bigger than dom theatrical rental.

 

Revenues split look a bit like that for a studio annually:

 

Domestic Theatrical: 18%
Rest: 82%

 

If you have a PVOD at a prime price that usually do not exist, I can see a possible world for a movie doing 85-90% of is revenues, with an near empty competitive space and a special status, who knows really.

 

Domestic theatrical is ultra important because it tend to correlate to domestic revenues for the usually bigger post theatrical revenues, not just because of the higher rental, but that goes out of the windows right now.

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4 hours ago, Krissykins said:

Lol that headline is so click-baity.

 

I’ve sat in a cinema safely 3 times in the past 4 weeks. 

How many people go to movies, even without the virus, 3 times in 4 weeks?

I uspect DR Fauci knows a lot more about  sagety then you do?

And you are in the UK .Totally different in the US and other countries.

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I think Fauci is being a little overly pessimistic, but I don't think he is totally off.

 

The Intl numbers for Tenet have been ok, but nothing special - especially given it has monopolized screens. Overall numbers are down compared to a year ago in Europe. So if you had more than 1 big film out at a time then their numbers would be negatively impacted in a hurry.

Tenet shows if you have only 1 well known movie out at a time you can make ok money, but that model is not sustainable for any studio long term- to basically give up months to another studio.

 

I heard that some theaters make more money from private screenings of old movies than they do from something like Tenet. 

 

I think Tenet ends up around 300-325 total. it's at a little over 150 now and you have to think the cinemaphiles and Nolan fans have already seen it, not leaving much more audience to go. Needs what, about 500M to breakeven. Not going to come close to that in theaters. Might get close once it gets into homes.

 

Edited by RamblinRed

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16 minutes ago, RamblinRed said:

I think Tenet ends up around 300-325 total. it's at a little over 150 now and you have to think the cinemaphiles and Nolan fans have already seen it, not leaving much more audience to go.

There's still LA (at least indoor locations) and NY as far as that crowd goes but who knows how much it'll make from those states once they finally open since the movie will be old news by the time that happens.

Edited by filmlover
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15 minutes ago, RamblinRed said:

I think Fauci is being a little overly pessimistic, but I don't think he is totally off.

 

The Intl numbers for Tenet have been ok, but nothing special - especially given it has monopolized screens. Overall numbers are down compared to a year ago in Europe. So if you had more than 1 big film out at a time then their numbers would be negatively impacted in a hurry.

Tenet shows if you have only 1 well known movie out at a time you can make ok money, but that model is not sustainable for any studio long term- to basically give up months to another studio.

 

I heard that some theaters make more money from private screenings of old movies than they do from something like Tenet. 

 

I think Tenet ends up around 300-325 total. it's at a little over 150 now and you have to think the cinemaphiles and Nolan fans have already seen it, not leaving much more audience to go. Needs what, about 500M to breakeven. Not going to come close to that in theaters. Might get close once it gets into homes.

 

I think another factor behind Tenet’s underwhelming numbers could also be down to considerably lower repeat viewings from Nolan fans. Anecdotally, In cinemas I saw Inception 3 times and TDKR and Interstellar 4 times each (in IMAX), hell, I even saw Dunkirk twice. Whereas I’ve seen Tenet only once at a drive in. In ordinary times I’d have seen it probably 3 times by now, but I’m waiting for Blu Ray to watch it again as I can’t be bothered driving a 100 mile round trip to the nearest drive in to see something I’ve already seen, and I don’t feel safe heading back to indoor UK cinemas (we’ve had a shocking rise in cases over the past week, so I’m even less inclined to return anytime soon).

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3 hours ago, doublejack said:

Yes, absolutely. It is based on the percentage of a movie's gross that goes to the studio. That largely comes from the US domestic market.

 

I just don't see how an expensive movie can turn a profit between international box office, a small domestic box office take, and PVOD revenue. That's why I'm saying 2020 is done. Only smaller budget films are suitable for release in the present global conditions. It's going to be like this for quite a while.

People here don't get how lurcrative a US release can be.

And I think a long delayed US release will hurt the film at the US Box office, if the film has opened overseas.

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3 hours ago, doublejack said:

Predictable, just like that it will move again when it becomes painfully obvious a December release date is a no-go.

This. I don't see the logic behind Warners move. If anything, the Covid numbers will be worse in December then in November. as the cold weather really kicks in and the virus spreads as a result.

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19 minutes ago, dudalb said:

This. I don't see the logic behind Warners move. If anything, the Covid numbers will be worse in December then in November. as the cold weather really kicks in and the virus spreads as a result.

They won’t want to spook exhibitors by announcing they’re essentially abandoning them. I doubt any studio is confident of any dates right now, but WB need to plant a flag on a date just in case.

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4 minutes ago, SnokesLegs said:

They won’t want to spook exhibitors by announcing they’re essentially abandoning them. I doubt any studio is confident of any dates right now, but WB need to plant a flag on a date just in case.

Probably righty, thouh I think exhibitors have  probably written off 2020, and are spending lots of time lobbying Washington for some kind of bail out.

We need to get a betting pool started not on if WW84 moves to 2021, but when it will be announced.

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44 minutes ago, cookie said:

 

The wave of post-Tenet delays has begun.

Too bad for exhibitors since this seemed like the right kind of movie to test the market with as opposed to something as demanding of a viewer as Tenet apparently is but no one is gonna put out anything they think has potential after seeing its numbers until 2021. At this point it seems silly for any movie to open until there is a sign that NY/LA theaters are allowed to do so.

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9 hours ago, Krissykins said:

Lol that headline is so click-baity.

 

I’ve sat in a cinema safely 3 times in the past 4 weeks. 

America shifts from covid is a hoax to it's worse than ebola.

 

 

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Release Calendar Update :-

 

So righto, Tenet opened and sadly it seams it's results are not enough for studios to hold their nerve.  So we move on (I'm keeping the releases which are released on the list and historical)

 

Upcoming Releases - Changes due to COVID

** Changes in bold

 

Released 08-14-2020 - Unhinged (Solstice)

Released 08-21-2020 - Words on Bathroom Walls (Roadside)

Released 08-28-2020 - The New Mutants (Fox)

Released 08-28-2020 - The Personal History of David Copperfield (Fox Searthlight)

Released 08-28-2020 (PVOD day and date)* - Bill & Ted Face the Music (United Artists)

Released 09-03-2020 - Tenet (Warner Bros)

Released 09-04-2020 Disney+ Premium - Mulan (Disney)

 

September 11, 2020 - The Broken Hearts Gallery (Sony)

September 18, 2020 - Infidel

September 18, 2020 *PVOD* - Antebellum (Lionsgate)

September 25, 2020 - Greenland (STX)

 

October 9, 2020 - Aggie (Strand)

October 9, 2020 - The War with Grandpa (101)

October 9, 2020 - Honest Thief

October 9, 2020 *PVOD* - Trump Card (Cloudburst)

October 16, 2020 - 2 Hearts (Freestyle)

October 16, 2020 *Netflix* - The Trial of Chicago 7 (Paramount)

October 23, 2020 - Death on the Nile (Fox)

October 23, 2020 - Connected (Sony)

October 23, 2020 - Untitled Universal Event Comedy (Universal) - is this film real? Anyone know which film is this a placeholder for?

October 30, 2020 - Fatale (Lionsgate)

 

November 6, 2020 - Let him go (Focus)

November 6, 2020 - Black Widow (Disney) - How long before Disney shifts this out to 2021 ?

November 13, 2020 - Untitled Universal Event Film IV (2020) (Universal)

November 13, 2020 - The Comeback Trail (Cloudburst)

November 13, 2020 - Deep Water (Fox)

November 20, 2020 - No Time to Die (MGM) - Can't be long before Bond moves to 2021 now

November 20, 2020 - Untitled Amblin Project (Universal)

November 20, 2020 - Soul (Disney) - I'd say rumours will persist with this going down the Disney+ Premium i'd say

November 25, 2020 - Voyagers (Lionsgate)

November 25, 2020 - Happiest Season (Tristar)

 

December 4, 2020 - The Empty Man (Fox)

December 11, 2020 - Samaritan (United Artists)

December 11, 2020 - Free Guy (Fox)

December 18, 2020 - West Side Story (Fox)

December 18, 2020 - Coming 2 America (Paramount)

December 18, 2020 - Dune (Warner Bros)

December 23, 2020 - The Croods: A New Age (Universal)

December 25, 2020 - News of the World (Universal)

December 25, 2020 - Wonder Woman 1984 (Warner Bros)

 

TBA 2020 - Saint Maud (A24)

TBA 2020 - Stillwater (Focus)

 

Other Changes beyond 2020 (or moving from 2020 to 2021)

Escape Room 2 (Sony) - April 17, 2020 -> January 1, 2021

Respect - December 25, 2020 -> January 15, 2021

The Spongebob Movie: Sponge on the Run - United States - PVOD early 2021 / Already in release in Canada

The King's Man (Fox) - September 18, 2020 -> February 26, 2021

A Quiet Place Part II (Paramount) - September 4, 2020 -> April 23, 2021

Monster Hunter (Screen Gems) - September 4, 2020 -> April 23, 2021

The Conjuring: The Devel made me do it (Warner Bros) - September 11, 2020 -> June 4, 2021

Top Gun: Maverick - December 23, 2020 -> July 2, 2021

The Forever Purge - Removed -> July 9, 2021

The Last Duel - December 25, 2020 -> October 15, 2021

Halloween Kills (Universal) - October 16, 2020 -> October 15, 2021

Snake Eyes: GI Joe Origins (Paramount) - October 23, 2020 -> October 22, 2021

Clifford and Big Red Dog (Paramount) - November 13, 2020 -> November 5, 2021

Candyman (Universal) - October 16, 2020 -> TBC 2021

Halloween Ends (Universal) - October 15, 2021 -> October 14, 2022

All Avatar Sequels - Delayed by 1 year starting in December 2022

All Star Wars Films - Delayed by 1 year starting in December 2023

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