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Coronavirus Movie Theatre Reopening Thread | Release Date Changes/Production News | Theaters are dead. Long live streaming!

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22 hours ago, WandaLegion said:

7M week with 25% drops going forward would be 57 from current markets. 20% to 64M, 33% to 50M. So it should be hitting that range even if NY LA SF don’t open any further for a full year.

You're making a big assumption that the drops stay nice and low. That's not a certainty. It is possible a spike in cases causes attendance to drop again. Also, when the numbers are as small as they are it doesn't take a huge swing for the drop to change a lot.

 

I agree with the assessment that 50-55M DOM is about the ceiling. It could hit 60M, but that's looking unlikely.

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1 minute ago, doublejack said:

You're making a big assumption that the drops stay nice and low. That's not a certainty. It is possible a spike in cases causes attendance to drop again. Also, when the numbers are as small as they are it doesn't take a huge swing for the drop to change a lot.

 

I agree with the assessment that 50-55M DOM is about the ceiling. It could hit 60M, but that's looking unlikely.

I’m sorry, but there’s absolutely no reasonable way to think that 50-60 is the “ceiling.” You have to be expecting almost nothing from the closed regions.   
 

Which, tbh, I think is kind of possible — but not the case to consider for a ceiling. The ceiling is current markets legging to ~60 alone and then new ones adding 20+

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17 minutes ago, WandaLegion said:

I’m sorry, but there’s absolutely no reasonable way to think that 50-60 is the “ceiling.” You have to be expecting almost nothing from the closed regions.   
 

Which, tbh, I think is kind of possible — but not the case to consider for a ceiling. The ceiling is current markets legging to ~60 alone and then new ones adding 20+

I have already provided two points that back up my projection. Here's another - theaters are going to be slashing hours and shutting down again, voluntarily this time, rather than losing money. They are not going to stay open as the PTA for Tenet plummets and nothing new is released. You can't compare the Tenet run to some other leggy past film. Tenet is the NA box office right now. As it further dwindles, the incentive to operate goes with it.

 

Also, your assumption that closed regions will meaningfully add to Tenet's run is shaky at best. Tenet did expand to 120 more locations this weekend. Still dropped almost 30%. Further, there is no sign that theaters are opening soon in many of the closed regions. NYC? Forget it. Michigan? Not happening. There will be some markets that open up, but it won't be enough to counter the natural drop off. Tenet has burned a lot of the demand from those who are willing to brave theaters in a pandemic. There just aren't a lot of those people. Nothing is doing well domestically for a reason.

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3 minutes ago, doublejack said:

I have already provided two points that back up my projection. Here's another - theaters are going to be slashing hours and shutting down again, voluntarily this time, rather than losing money. They are not going to stay open as the PTA for Tenet plummets and nothing new is released. You can't compare the Tenet run to some other leggy past film. Tenet is the NA box office right now. As it further dwindles, the incentive to operate goes with it.

 

Also, your assumption that closed regions will meaningfully add to Tenet's run is shaky at best. Tenet did expand to 120 more locations this weekend. Still dropped almost 30%. Further, there is no sign that theaters are opening soon in many of the closed regions. NYC? Forget it. Michigan? Not happening. There will be some markets that open up, but it won't be enough to counter the natural drop off. Tenet has burned a lot of the demand from those who are willing to brave theaters in a pandemic. There just aren't a lot of those people. Nothing is doing well domestically for a reason.

The ceiling is not the same as the most probable case, though. That was his point. The ceiling should be the case where everything goes right, just as the floor should be the case where everything goes wrong. 

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1 minute ago, Menor said:

The ceiling is not the same as the most probable case, though. That was his point. The ceiling should be the case where everything goes right, just as the floor should be the case where everything goes wrong. 

BINGO

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1 hour ago, Menor said:

The ceiling is not the same as the most probable case, though. That was his point. The ceiling should be the case where everything goes right, just as the floor should be the case where everything goes wrong. 

I view a ceiling as the high end of a projected range. Based on that I hold to my ceiling figure. It is not as if we can factor in a miracle and sudden surge in demand. If we're playing that game what is the ceiling? 150M? 200M? Who knows. 

 

If we're going to get into actual estimates and probable outcomes, I think Tenet misses 50M. We're looking at something like 3M next weekend, and a total just over 40M. That doesn't inspire confidence.

Edited by doublejack
fixed grammar

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If the 200 plus budget  is correct. Tenat will have a hard time just breaking even in it's threatrical run. I don't have to explain, hopefully a film needs to gross much,much more then it's budget to break even since the studios  don't get anywhere near the whole ticket price. Twice the budget to break even is generally considered a good ballpark figure.

I have no problem with being a fan of the film, I do have a problem with ignoring facts and trying to portray the Tenat release as some kind of massive success.

Edited by dudalb

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2 minutes ago, dudalb said:

If the 200 plus budget  is correct. Tenat will have a hard time just breaking even in it's threatrical run. I don't have to explain, hopefully a film needs to gross much,much more then it's budget to break even since the studios  don't get anywhere near the whole ticket price. Twice the budget to break even is generally considered a good ballpark figure.

Twice the budget is with a projection of future revenues of all the windows, Interstellar and Dunkirk didn't break even in their theatrical run.

 

Say Tenet would have been released in normal time and turned out a giant blockbuster success story and goes on to gross $800M

 

$270M dom, $395m intl minus China, $135m China,

 

Revenues: $270M*.53+$135M*.25+$395M*.40 = $334.85M

 

Budget: $200m

WW P&A: $110m

Interest&Overhead: $30m

Nolan's 20% of the gross after some percentage of them are removed: $60m

 

Net: $55.15M in the red and that a $800M BO

 

You do not have to explain that Tenet will have an hard time just breaking even in it's theatrical run, but you would have to explain why mentioning that, it is not it ever had any chance to do so or that a non franchise Nolan movie ever did (if any of those Batman movie did it).

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I think we're approaching the point where Tenet will be a money loser either forever or at the very least for a number of years. We may never know. 

 

All I can say for sure is that it should not have been released when it was. The better plan was to move it into 2021 or later.

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1 hour ago, Barnack said:

Twice the budget is with a projection of future revenues of all the windows, Interstellar and Dunkirk didn't break even in their theatrical run.

 

Say Tenet would have been released in normal time and turned out a giant blockbuster success story and goes on to gross $800M

 

$270M dom, $395m intl minus China, $135m China,

 

Revenues: $270M*.53+$135M*.25+$395M*.40 = $334.85M

 

Budget: $200m

WW P&A: $110m

Interest&Overhead: $30m

Nolan's 20% of the gross after some percentage of them are removed: $60m

 

Net: $55.15M in the red and that a $800M BO

 

You do not have to explain that Tenet will have an hard time just breaking even in it's theatrical run, but you would have to explain why mentioning that, it is not it ever had any chance to do so or that a non franchise Nolan movie ever did (if any of those Batman movie did it).

Interstellar and Dunkirk missed $200M despite having much more going for them than Tenet did (regardless of the circumstances) so it's unlikely it would've even approached Inception's numbers. Guessing in a normal situation it would've made about half of that movie with $145-150M total.

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24 minutes ago, doublejack said:

I think we're approaching the point where Tenet will be a money loser either forever or at the very least for a number of years. We may never know. 

 

All I can say for sure is that it should not have been released when it was. The better plan was to move it into 2021 or later.

Shades of "Cleopatra". It took ten years for it to make it's budget back.

But then Tenat has not come close to bankrupting Warners the way Cleopatra did to Fox...

And the crisis came when Cleo was still in principal photography. It's huge cost created such a cash flow problem that Fox neared bankruptcy.As it was, they halted production on every movie Fox was making except for Cleo. Since Cleo was filming in Rome, the Hollywood Fox studios became almost a ghost town. Only thing filming were Fox's TV shows which they contractually had to deliver on time. No wonder the 1963 Cleo has become every Studio's head worst nightmare when it comes to Runaway productions.

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4 hours ago, Barnack said:

Twice the budget is with a projection of future revenues of all the windows, Interstellar and Dunkirk didn't break even in their theatrical run.

 

Say Tenet would have been released in normal time and turned out a giant blockbuster success story and goes on to gross $800M

 

$270M dom, $395m intl minus China, $135m China,

 

Revenues: $270M*.53+$135M*.25+$395M*.40 = $334.85M

 

Budget: $200m

WW P&A: $110m

Interest&Overhead: $30m

Nolan's 20% of the gross after some percentage of them are removed: $60m

 

Net: $55.15M in the red and that a $800M BO

 

You do not have to explain that Tenet will have an hard time just breaking even in it's theatrical run, but you would have to explain why mentioning that, it is not it ever had any chance to do so or that a non franchise Nolan movie ever did (if any of those Batman movie did it).

I always enjoy your boxoffice break even dissections. I consider Tenet a success given the alternative ( $0 or a untenable year delay). With ancillary revenues it might get close. Unfortunately for Tenet a lot of the advertising revenue had been spent, raising its overhead.  

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Our government just announced that Cinemas in the UK now have a 10pm curfew.

So that would be no showtimes after 7:30.

 

Boris is coming for you, Mr. Bond.

 

 

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28 minutes ago, Avatree said:

Our government just announced that Cinemas in the UK now have a 10pm curfew.

So that would be no showtimes after 7:30.

 

Boris is coming for you, Mr. Bond.

 

 

The 10pm curfew is for pubs and restaurants only as far as I can see, unless I misread what he just announced?

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On 9/21/2020 at 12:28 AM, sfran43 said:

 

it seem like the actual was adjusted as below.

 

TUESDAY UPDATE, with actuals & more market detail: Christopher Nolan’s Tenet came in just a touch higher in the weekend actuals versus Sunday’s estimates, lifting to $25.3M from 54 overseas markets, per Warner Bros. That was good for a 35% drop in the holdovers (-29% if excluding China). The international box office cume through Sunday stood at $215M and worldwide at $251M, clearly powered by overseas where the pandemic has been better managed, despite some pockets of flare-ups.

The Top 10 markets through Sunday are led by China ($60.5M), where cinema capacity will be increased to 75% this coming weekend ahead of what is poised to be a lucrative National Day holiday for local titles. Behind China on Tenet are: UK ($18.3M), France ($16.3M), Germany ($12.9M), Korea ($11.9M), Taiwan ($9.8M), Russia ($8.2M), Spain ($7.3M), Italy ($6.6M) and Australia ($6.5M).

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5 hours ago, SnokesLegs said:

The 10pm curfew is for pubs and restaurants only as far as I can see, unless I misread what he just announced?

They said it applies to all hospitality venues. Of which cinemas must be one, no?

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