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It is now becoming more and more evident the wake up call that Tenet gave to industry

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We'll likely see an announcement from WB soon that they're pulling Tenet from theaters within the next few weeks and allow theaters to close up shop again now that there's nothing that will actually make money set to come out the next few weeks and it's been playing to a lot of auditoriums with no one in them since it opened. The fact it hasn't played on NY/LA screens yet will likely save it from going the PVOD route and they will wait until there's a clear indication those places will be opening to give it another shot, even if the damage seems to be done.

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30 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

It is now becoming more and more evident the wake up call that Tenet gave to industry

 

WB made the wrong move by releasing the wrong movie in the wrong time.

 

Tenet is a new IP and a new IP hardly would bring back people to theaters. It also got a huge budget and a confusing plot even for Nolan's fanboys or "nolanites".

 

The wake up call should be given to WB, which is run by idiots. How the hell can you release a 200 million budgeted movie with only 65% of the theaters open? 

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so i guess Free Guy is going straight to Disney+ too? (not premier access because that would just be taking the piss)

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30 minutes ago, Cappoedameron said:

I think this pandemic has changed the landscape of Cinema for the next decade. I don't think we'll see another billion dollar  gross in a movie till maybe 5-6 years from now.

 

Even when a  vaccine is found, people just won't feel safe. Holding these films hostage for who  knows  how long is dumb. At some point you're gonna have to just release it because even if it's released in May of 2021, you're no  longer guaranteed to make the amount of money you would pre-pandemic. I don't think studios understand that and just assume if they push and push the date then it means their film has a chance to gross more. 

I agree with the first part of your post. For sure this pandemic is going to have medium to long term consequences on the motion picture industry. I think move budgets are going to be smaller to account for the smaller potential grosses. No billion dollar grossers means no 200 million dollar tentpoles. It'll be this way for a while, I think.

 

However, I disagree with the idea that pushing release dates won't help in terms of gross. Tenet showed that there is virtually no market, domestically, for films. That situation will improve at some point. If Disney released BW into the current market they may as well burn a pile of money

 

Animated GIF

 

Disney will certainly not make as much money on BW as they would have pre-pandemic. That's a certainty. However, Disney would be in position to lose more money if they release BW into the current conditions rather than sit on it and wait for conditions to improve.

 

Put simply, it is unfeasible to release a tentpole into the current market. Things have to improve first.

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It always seemed silly for any movie to go ahead with releasing when the main movie markets weren't open and had no indication as to when they would be able to (and still don't almost a month after reopening started). But Hollywood is gonna Hollywood by making goofy decisions even in the post-COVID era.

Edited by filmlover

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41 minutes ago, Cappoedameron said:

I think this pandemic has changed the landscape of Cinema for the next decade. I don't think we'll see another billion dollar  gross in a movie till maybe 5-6 years from now.

 

Even when a  vaccine is found, people just won't feel safe. Holding these films hostage for who  knows  how long is dumb. At some point you're gonna have to just release it because even if it's released in May of 2021, you're no  longer guaranteed to make the amount of money you would pre-pandemic. I don't think studios understand that and just assume if they push and push the date then it means their film has a chance to gross more. 

I don't think a studio is scheduling a film for May 2021 with the expectation that it will make Pre-Pandemic money.

 

But it will make a damn sight more money than releasing in November 2020.

 

Why would you not move it from now to next year? Unless you've done your marketing campaign already (you wouldn't want to buy 2 marketing campaigns), or if you are desperate for cash - why would you not move it?

 

As for "no billion dollar gross" movie for another 6 years. What planet are you living on? Avengers just grossed $3 Billion last year. Takings could be down 70% post vaccine and $1B would still be doable.

 

The Eight Hundred has grossed $450m in the past four weeks, from one market alone. You seriously don't think it's possible for a film to gross $1 billion worldwide? For 6 years? Lol. What a strange prediction.

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7 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

so i guess Free Guy is going straight to Disney+ too? (not premier access because that would just be taking the piss)

I guess that and Death on the Nile are being used as sacrificial lambs to whatever the Christmas box office ends up looking like this year.

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9 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

so i guess Free Guy is going straight to Disney+ too? (not premier access because that would just be taking the piss)

No, it's a Fox film. Soul, on the other hand, probably will. Announcement probably on Investors Day in two weeks.

7 minutes ago, doublejack said:

However, I disagree with the idea that pushing release dates won't help in terms of gross. Tenet showed that there is virtually no market, domestically, for films. That situation will improve at some point. If Disney released BW into the current market they may as well burn a pile of money

With the same circumstances as Tenet, Black Widow would've easily been profitable. If Tenet makes 350 mil WW, Black Widow easily could make 600 mil+ WW (and there's also the merch money it'll make). 

Edited by lorddemaxus

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well at least the top 50 highest grossing movies of all-time (worldwide) should be quite stable for a while.

 

 

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48 minutes ago, Cappoedameron said:

I think this pandemic has changed the landscape of Cinema for the next decade. I don't think we'll see another billion dollar  gross in a movie till maybe 5-6 years from now.

Look at what Tenet did vs Dunkirk in most market, more in some, not too dissimilar in others, 800 is getting close to half a billion in just a single market right now, let alone in 2022 (would not be surprised at all if we see the first billion grosser in China alone before 2025).

 

 

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12 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

With the same circumstances as Tenet, Black Widow would've easily been profitable. If Tenet makes 350 mil WW, Black Widow easily could make 600 mil+ WW (and there's also the merch money it'll make). 

I don't think BW would have grossed that much WW. Either way, Disney is not going to take the risk with one of their premier IPs. They are going to be very cautious with MCU, Star Wars, etc. There is no reason to release something hoping to break even. They are in it for profit.

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I just hope some movie screens aren't destroyed. Like the IMAX in Lincoln Square in NYC.

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3 minutes ago, doublejack said:

I don't think BW would have grossed that much WW. Either way, Disney is not going to take the risk with one of their premier IPs. They are going to be very cautious with MCU, Star Wars, etc. There is no reason to release something hoping to break even. They are in it for profit.

 I doubt Tenet would've come anywhere close to BW numbers in normal times and I don't see why it would be any different now. Espescially when Black Widow's two biggest markets would've been Europe and Asia where the pandemic is not affecting the Tenet's performance.

 

And another delay is just going to increase their costs (since they have to restart marketing again) so I don't see how it's gonna be quite profitable even if it makes more money than it would've with its current release date.

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I'm sure BW can be successful even in an ongoing pandemic environment, but successful (or at least profitable) isn't the profitable that Black Widow is going for. It was meant to be more for Disney.

 

With nothing to look forward to, I'm more curious to see what OS theaters are going to do. The US will likely have to shut down through November at least.

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6 minutes ago, cannastop said:

I just hope some movie screens aren't destroyed. Like the IMAX in Lincoln Square in NYC.

They won’t cause those are the nicer screens, just like the nicer theater palaces were converted into movie theaters and Broadway theaters. 
 

I still don’t believe that the movie theater is dead.  It won’t look like it did before COVID, but just like vaudeville morphed into Broadway, movie theaters will morph into a more specialized/niche market. 

I also believe that we have seen that people fundamentally don’t want to stay inside or be alone. Against all scientific reason, they have continued to have group gatherings over this year. There will be an audience that wants to go back to a theater when this is all over. 
 

whether the Media conglomerates allow that is a whole other story. 

 

Fuck Everything. 

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1 hour ago, Cappoedameron said:

Bold of him to assume there will still be movie theaters at the rate it's going

As long as International business exist, there will be theatrical business. So its nothing bold.

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