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Coronavirus Movie Theatre Reopening Thread | Release Date Changes/Production News | Theaters are dead. Long live streaming!

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4 minutes ago, jimisawesome said:

Without a big check to AMC, Regal and Cinemark what is the point of the delay?  If AMC has to shut down again because of no product they are not going to reopen.  They don't have the money and given the problems they had raising debt this summer they don't have access to the debt market to make it to next spring let alone next summer.  They have to file its Chapter 7 not 11 because what plan can save them?  So ok you take a loss on Black Widow is that not better then taking a loss on BW and every other movie you have in the can and in production going forward? 

 

 

 

The theory is that someone would scoop up AMC for pennies on the dollar and reopen it later...I think both of those theories are in question if folks truly fall out of a movie-going habit permanently.  It takes about 90 days to break a habit...and once broken, well, there's no guarantee people will ever go back to the previous habit.

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2 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

The theory is that someone would scoop up AMC for pennies on the dollar and reopen it later...I think both of those theories are in question if folks truly fall out of a movie-going habit permanently.  It takes about 90 days to break a habit...and once broken, well, there's no guarantee people will ever go back to the previous habit.

 

That is wishful thinking.  How can you look at this industry and marketplace and think you can make a go at it?

 

None of the distributors seem to be on board with CinemaSafe or pushing the view points of many doctors (and not cranks either but mainstream doctors as interviewed by Dr Gupta just this week)  that theater going is as safe or safer than eating outside at a restaurant.   Instead you have entertainment places like AVClub acting like a trip to the theater is Russian Roulette and creators echoing that its an unsafe venue.  This is important because it makes it just that much harder to convince people to go back or open up capacity when COVID is undercontrol and its even safer then now. 

 

Related to above, if the public won't accept the risks now it can be years before the public will accept the risk to go back.  There is a very good chance that a vaccine does come until the end of 2021 or 2022 or even later.  So yeah you can buy AMC for 2 or 3 billion but you will eat 2 or 3 billion over the next 3 years hoping business comes back.

 

What upcoming movie is there that looks like the mega blockbuster that gets everyone back into a theater?  Even before the pandemic 2020 and 2021 where expected to be down. 

 

I believe it was you that said this in the other thread, but AMCs sit on some valuable land that can be used to build new condos.

 

Is it guaranteed that AMC goes away no but its not the betting favorite they stay a theater company if they file.  

 

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1 hour ago, jimisawesome said:

it just that much harder to convince people to go back or open up capacity when COVID is undercontrol and its even safer then now. 

Is it? I have a hard time believing that people in the US would act differently to other countries when they are in the same situation as most international territories are at the moment. People did go to the cinemas when things were safer and I think it's gonna be no different here. The problem here is more about how long it'll take for the US to reach much safer levels.

 

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What upcoming movie is there that looks like the mega blockbuster that gets everyone back into a theater?  Even before the pandemic 2020 and 2021 where expected to be down. 

Jurassic World 3, Eternals, Spiderman, The Batman are probably gonna be mega blockbusters.

Edited by lorddemaxus
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4 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

 

Is it? I have a hard time believing that people in the US would act differently to other countries when they are in the same situation as most international territories are at the moment. People did go to the cinemas when things were safer and I think it's gonna be no different here. The problem here is more about how long it'll take for the US to reach much safer levels.

 

Jurassic World 3, Eternals, Spiderman, The Batman are probably gonna be mega blockbusters.

But it already did in 2019...the US ticket goers dropped 5% https://deadline.com/2020/01/movie-ticket-sales-2019-decline-domestic-box-office-1202834469/, EVEN with subscriptions taking off) while Europe went up 5.5% https://www.displaydaily.com/article/press-releases/eu-cinema-attendance-up-by-5-5-in-2019-showing-best-result-since-2004...

 

So, we acted differently without a pandemic...and the anxiety from Covid has been much more engrained and long-term here in the US than what it has been worldwide (outside of a few countries)...and the desire to overcome that, for most players in the industry outside of the actual theaters, is still mostly non-existent (whether that's good or bad is not to say...it just is, and that reality will continue to have an effect)...

 

So, an industry can tank here, while not tanking elsewhere...of course, if the US movie-going industry tanks, that will have far-reaching effects, even if everywhere else doesn't, b/c losing 15-50% of a movie's possible theatrical revenue for good (which the overall US market seems to represent, depending on the picture) is catastrophic long term...at least for previous budgets, salaries, movies that can be made, overall industry employees that can be supported, etc...

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1 hour ago, lorddemaxus said:

 

Is it? I have a hard time believing that people in the US would act differently to other countries when they are in the same situation as most international territories are at the moment. People did go to the cinemas when things were safer and I think it's gonna be no different here. The problem here is more about how long it'll take for the US to reach much safer levels.

 

Jurassic World 3, Eternals, Spiderman, The Batman are probably gonna be mega blockbusters.

Movie goers did not come back in any significant way that would allow the movie theaters and the studios to make money. in August and September business in Europe was less than 1/2 of what it was a year ago. In some countries it was less than 25% (like UK and Germany)

What makes you think it can currently be anywhere close to pre-pandemic levels, right now there is zero evidence that movie theaters and studios can make anywhere close to what they need to make.

Yes, die hards and Nolan fans returned, but the GA did not.

 

 

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2 minutes ago, RamblinRed said:

Movie goers did not come back in any significant way that would allow the movie theaters and the studios to make money. in August and September business in Europe was less than 1/2 of what it was a year ago. In some countries it was less than 25% (like UK and Germany)

What makes you think it can currently be anywhere close to pre-pandemic levels, right now there is zero evidence that movie theaters and studios can make anywhere close to what they need to make.

 

 

That's because there's less content. In August, there were literally no big releases. Last year, The Lion King was still making tens of millions each week OS. No shit that they were doing worse. And Tenet's the proof that internationally movies are making close to what they would've made.

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Yes, die hards and Nolan fans returned, but the GA did not.

Dude, that's a bunch of horse crap. Tenet would not be the highest grossing Hollywood film internationally if only Nolan die-hards watched it. It's also very close to (or even surpassed) either Interstellar or Dunkirk numbers in most countries its released in and I doubt only Nolan die-hards watched those movies. Unless you think Tenet would've grossed like 600 mil internationally or something in a normal scenario, its international performance right now isn't far off from what it would've made normally.

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32 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

 

Is it? I have a hard time believing that people in the US would act differently to other countries when they are in the same situation as most international territories are at the moment. People did go to the cinemas when things were safer and I think it's gonna be no different here. The problem here is more about how long it'll take for the US to reach much safer levels.

 

Jurassic World 3, Eternals, Spiderman, The Batman are probably gonna be mega blockbusters.

 

I will grant you everything you say, but it still does not change that they won't come back in time to save AMC Theaters from filing for bankruptcy.  It does not change all of the other headwinds that face theater owners that make it difficult to find a white knight that will save the chain mostly as is.  Which means by the time people are willing to come back there is no back to come back to.

 

Just look at how bad Tenet did.  It will finish below what its opening weekend would have been.  As the calendar currently sits there are only 3 movies that would have a floor of a 100 million (in non covid times) opening between now and MLK weekend with another 5-10 that would likely hit that number.  Given Tenet is anything but Wonder Woman likely to hit 100 million and that includes Bond?  If we move this to the 200 million domestic (in normal times) grossing movie the list is what Bond maybe, Soul probably, Wonder Woman yes, F9 maybe but that is not until April 2nd,  May 7th Black Widow probably, June 11th JW yes.  That is just not much drawing the casual movie fan back in.

 

 

There is just no indication that NY is opening anytime soon.  CA is slow going.  This is just a long way to say by the best case time there is a vaccine AMC and now Regal will be in huge trouble without a white knight.

 

 

While typing this out I came across that now Regal Cinemas is warning they will have to raise money if this last until next year and will breach loan agreements come Dec.

 

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https://www.wrcbtv.com/story/42677116/the-worlds-secondbiggest-movie-theater-chain-is-struggling-to-survive-the-pandemic

 

 

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The company warned, however, that it would need to raise additional cash early next year if a second wave of coronavirus cases cause "prolonged" shutdowns in the United States and the United Kingdom.

 

Even if that scenario is avoided, the company said it's likely to breach loan covenants in December and again in June 2021, putting it at risk of default if discussions with its lenders fail to result in waivers.

 
 

"There can be no certainty as to the future impact of Covid-19 on the group," Cineworld said in a statement.

 

 

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6 hours ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

The theory is that someone would scoop up AMC for pennies on the dollar and reopen it later...I think both of those theories are in question if folks truly fall out of a movie-going habit permanently.  It takes about 90 days to break a habit...and once broken, well, there's no guarantee people will ever go back to the previous habit.

AMC was on the verge of bankruptcy before the virus hit due to bad management, the Virus has probably just moved up the inevitable.

What is interesting id despite the recent de facto repeal of the Paramount decision..the court decision in 1948 that made the major studios divest themselves of their movie theater chains, the studios seem to have little interest in getting back into the theater business.

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5 hours ago, lorddemaxus said:

That's because there's less content. In August, there were literally no big releases. Last year, The Lion King was still making tens of millions each week OS. No shit that they were doing worse. And Tenet's the proof that internationally movies are making close to what they would've made.

Dude, that's a bunch of horse crap. Tenet would not be the highest grossing Hollywood film internationally if only Nolan die-hards watched it. It's also very close to (or even surpassed) either Interstellar or Dunkirk numbers in most countries its released in and I doubt only Nolan die-hards watched those movies. Unless you think Tenet would've grossed like 600 mil internationally or something in a normal scenario, its international performance right now isn't far off from what it would've made normally.

No its not. With the restrictions on how many can be in theaters there is not room for as many movies to be out and make money. If one more big movie is out at the same time as Tenet then its take is likely reduced by at least a third and maybe more. '

 

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28 minutes ago, RamblinRed said:

No its not. With the restrictions on how many can be in theaters there is not room for as many movies to be out and make money. If one more big movie is out at the same time as Tenet then its take is likely reduced by at least a third and maybe more. '

 

Not anymore, I don't think...a big movie could release now and not hurt it, since Tenet is down to 2 screens on my 12s and they have 4 screens out of 12 on "old movies" or "reserved for groups" shows...it seems 3 week blocks are enough per big movie, so something could release now bigger than what we have,,,

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According to this people still don’t trust theatres compared to other outings/entertainment.
 

The major chains need to work out how to market the movie going experience when the next lot of new films comes out because right now they are behind travel and large events for a lot of people. 

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On 9/24/2020 at 11:35 AM, jimisawesome said:

Regal being in trouble  because of the virus is really serious new in a way AMC  was not.s. AMC was in deep,deep. trouble (dut to stupid mangement) before the virus hit. All COVID did was speed up AMC filing for bankruptcy;AMC was not a good bellweather for the theater business as a whlole. It would have done so eventualy anyway. But regal was doing OK, if not great, before the Virus hit. it being in serious trouble will send shockwaves througout the business.

To pretend the virus is not going to have long term serious economic impact on the film business is living in a fantasy world.

 

 

Edited by dudalb
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4 hours ago, Jamiem said:

 

According to this people still don’t trust theatres compared to other outings/entertainment.
 

The major chains need to work out how to market the movie going experience when the next lot of new films comes out because right now they are behind travel and large events for a lot of people. 

Nos sure they can.

Restuarnts are fairly easy to enforce social distancing measures in. Theaters are much,muchm harder to do that in. How are you gong to do that n the dark? And Restaurants can rearrange seating to accomdate the social distncing by closing down booth and moving tables. Theaters cannot really do that.

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16 minutes ago, dudalb said:

Nos sure they can.

Restuarnts are fairly easy to enforce social distancing measures in. Theaters are much,muchm harder to do that in. How are you gong to do that n the dark? And Restaurants can rearrange seating to accomdate the social distncing by closing down booth and moving tables. Theaters cannot really do that.

Being behind restaurants is understandable but being behind travel and large events (which I imagine is concerts and the like) is clearly more to do with either consumers not trusting the safety protocols in place at the major chains or a change in consumer behaviour which would be even worse. 

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I wonder how Europe's second wave is gonna affect movie theatres here. Spain and France are having +10.000 cases per day and cinemas are still open but no one knows how the situation will be in a couple of weeks. 

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7 hours ago, dudalb said:

Nos sure they can.

Restuarnts are fairly easy to enforce social distancing measures in. Theaters are much,muchm harder to do that in. How are you gong to do that n the dark? And Restaurants can rearrange seating to accomdate the social distncing by closing down booth and moving tables. Theaters cannot really do that.

Theaters are doing the great social distancing now - have you been to one?  If not, then maybe you haven't seen the great strides the industry has made since March.  (Some have literally removed the seat component, some have taped them off whether by row or individual seats, some have relied on the electronic ticketing that guarantees a small overall audience, etc)...

 

Having been to restaurants and movie theaters, I can say theaters have not yet dropped the ball on distance...but a restaurant I was at has (and won't be returned to)...

Edited by TwoMisfits
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