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Coronavirus Movie Theatre Reopening Thread | Release Date Changes/Production News | Theaters are dead. Long live streaming!

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3 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

There won't need to be a spike to bankrupt theaters if there are no movies coming out til spring...another 4-6 months of almost no revenue will do that all by itself...some movie(s) need to stick to dates and release...

I mean we have some movies coming out the next few months but they're of the "nobody cares" variety. Even things like Freaky (which is only coming out in November for the Friday the 13th gimmick) are unlikely to make a significant amount of cash simply because movies just aren't a priority for anyone right now. In an ideal situation theaters would've stayed closed for the rest of the year while everyone shifted their 2020 slate to 2021 but no, WB/Nolan had to go through with the wrongheaded decision of releasing their big expensive movie in the midst of a pandemic and now we're seeing the fallout from that which has put more stress on theaters than if they had just taken the rest of 2020 off.

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Posted (edited)
23 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I mean we have some movies coming out the next few months but they're of the "nobody cares" variety. Even things like Freaky (which is only coming out in November for the Friday the 13th gimmick) are unlikely to make a significant amount of cash simply because movies just aren't a priority for anyone right now. In an ideal situation theaters would've stayed closed for the rest of the year while everyone shifted their 2020 slate to 2021 but no, WB/Nolan had to go through with the wrongheaded decision of releasing their big expensive movie in the midst of a pandemic and now we're seeing the fallout from that which has put more stress on theaters than if they had just taken the rest of 2020 off.

If theaters stayed closed for the year, they'd also go under.  You can't have a going concern business not do business for 12 months.  For 6 months, it was kinda possible b/c there were federal programs paying for their employees, so they were just paying fixed costs and bleeding dry slowly...but there's no federal will for the employee piece right now, and the fixed costs still need to be paid and keep sucking the business dry, so now the bleed will just accelerate.

 

I mean, this doesn't mention the disastrous state your industry would be in after people broke their habits of movie-going...entertainment is flexible, and people find other ways to entertain themselves if given enough incentive...and a full year without the activity is a helluva incentive to find something else...

Edited by TwoMisfits
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25 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

If theaters stayed closed for the year, they'd also go under.  You can't have a going concern business not do business for 12 months.  For 6 months, it was kinda possible b/c there were federal programs paying for their employees, so they were just paying fixed costs and bleeding dry slowly...but there's no federal will for the employee piece right now, and the fixed costs still need to be paid and keep sucking the business dry, so now the bleed will just accelerate.

 

I mean, this doesn't mention the disastrous state your industry would be in after people broke their habits of movie-going...entertainment is flexible, and people find other ways to entertain themselves if given enough incentive...and a full year without the activity is a helluva incentive to find something else...

I doubt post-pandemic moviegoing habits will change all that much. People will still show up for the latest MCU and DC movies and the occasional non-IP title like Once Upon a Time in Hollywood and Ford v Ferrari. Theaters are screwed right now because they're stuck with things that wouldn't sell even in a normal climate. Nobody cares about The War with Grandpa or 2 Hearts or Honest Thief (can Liam Neeson please take a permanent break from these Taken wannabes?) to begin with.

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Posted (edited)

Friday numbers from Disney:

 

That's...pretty good for Hocus Pocus all things considered? Would be funny if Tenet's run as the default #1 ended thanks to an almost 30 year old Disney vehicle for Bette Midler (even if it's become one of the ultimate Halloween classics over the years).

Edited by filmlover

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Shouldn't studios be concerned about theaters going out of business and screwing all those movies they're delaying to next year? I feel like there are some movies that could be sacrificed right now, it's not like the studios don't have a few bombs here and there anyway. Maybe something like Godzilla v Kong should be sent to theaters now, that movie must be finished by now and considering how Godzilla 2 did, it's not like it would do great in normal times anyway. Maybe a brainless action movie is a better way to test the waters than something like Tenet. And it could do great numbers in China without any Hollywood competition.

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10 minutes ago, Napoleon said:

Shouldn't studios be concerned about theaters going out of business and screwing all those movies they're delaying to next year? I feel like there are some movies that could be sacrificed right now, it's not like the studios don't have a few bombs here and there anyway. Maybe something like Godzilla v Kong should be sent to theaters now, that movie must be finished by now and considering how Godzilla 2 did, it's not like it would do great in normal times anyway. Maybe a brainless action movie is a better way to test the waters than something like Tenet. And it could do great numbers in China without any Hollywood competition.

I think the concern is more that everyone is worried about a possible uptick in cases causing another wave of shutdowns all over the world in the coming months, making it extremely difficult to prepare the promotion for a movie in the midst of all this uncertainty. There's also the issue that some of the main states for moviegoing don't have a set date for reopening and thus potentially leaving money on the table, setting up another obstacle in the process. There's no indication as to when Andrew Cuomo will allow NYC theaters to reopen, for instance.

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14 hours ago, dudalb said:

I agree with you from an artistic point of view. but I keep on seeing this prediction every time there is a economic problem in the industry, and everytime once the crisis is past studios go back to making blockbusters.

FOrmula Tentpoles have been huge moneymakers since the silent days,only the genre that is big changes.

I agree with your tastes, but you and me are in a small mnority, particularly on this website. Seems as though most people are only interested in the blockbusters.

Besides, small budgets are no guarantee of quality anyway. Lots of cheap  crap is made in Hollywood.

 

 

You make some excellent points. I just think it'll be a while, years even, before $200M tentpoles become huge moneymakers again. So, small ball is going to be the game. Sure, many of those films will be misses and turn out poorly or be received poorly. Still, it only takes a relatively small percentage of them to be commercially successful to sustain the business model. Films can still bring in $20-50M domestically even amid the pandemic. That's a lot of headroom for a small budget film to profit.

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12 hours ago, Plain Old Tele said:

Ultra-low budget films aren’t really sustainable as an overall practice because you’re not paying people a living wage. They can (and do) happen here and there, obviously, but only because people have other jobs before and afterwards. 

I don't mean to imply that every movie that's made needs to be of the ultra-low budget variety. I think the studios would be wise to put a pause on all tentpole style films, though. Something like Joker with a reported $55M budget seems reasonable. That paid living wages and could still be profitable in the conditions Tenet released into.

 

If I'm a studio exec, I'm not greenlighting any expensive films for quite a while. I think it'll take years for that market to return.

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1 hour ago, doublejack said:

I don't mean to imply that every movie that's made needs to be of the ultra-low budget variety. I think the studios would be wise to put a pause on all tentpole style films, though. Something like Joker with a reported $55M budget seems reasonable. That paid living wages and could still be profitable in the conditions Tenet released into.

 

If I'm a studio exec, I'm not greenlighting any expensive films for quite a while. I think it'll take years for that market to return.

 

I agree, I think the studios should be making 20m-40m movies for the near future. 

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14 minutes ago, Plain Old Tele said:

 

I agree, I think the studios should be making 20m-40m movies for the near future. 

Do people want them?

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5 hours ago, Napoleon said:

Shouldn't studios be concerned about theaters going out of business and screwing all those movies they're delaying to next year? I feel like there are some movies that could be sacrificed right now, it's not like the studios don't have a few bombs here and there anyway. Maybe something like Godzilla v Kong should be sent to theaters now, that movie must be finished by now and considering how Godzilla 2 did, it's not like it would do great in normal times anyway. Maybe a brainless action movie is a better way to test the waters than something like Tenet. And it could do great numbers in China without any Hollywood competition.

How is releasing a movie that is almost certainly going to bomb help theaters any?

You really don't have much concept of the realities of the film business.

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Well... (this is Regal's parent company btw)

 

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I finally made it back to a theater for the first time in almost seven months. It's a place about 45-ish minutes from me that had re-opened for about a month in July with older movies, closed, and apparently re-opened over Labor Day weekend for Tenet's release. I would have been there a month ago to catch Tenet if I had known they were open, but they weren't listed on Tenet's official site since the theater doesn't do online ticketing; it just popped up under showtimes on a Google search I did on a whim a few days ago.

 

And honestly, I'm definitely feeling like I lucked out. The place was a total ghost town and I can't see them holding out hope for a turnaround with No Time to Die having moved to April. I won't be surprised if they announce they're closing again at some point this week.

 

But it was nice to go back to the movies again! It felt kinda surreal to be watching a new Christopher Nolan flick in the midst of a pandemic that has otherwise shut down the release of big movies, but it was a lot of fun to watch a big movie on a decent-size screen and with a nice sound system (even if the film itself makes some, uh, interesting choices with its sound mix). And it was just my parents and me in the auditorium, so there was no need to worry about other patrons (still left my mask on the whole time though - I'm so used to wearing it for work that it doesn't bother me anymore).

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toys r us is nothing like AMC.

 

Going to toy store to buy a toy was nice but they ran out of stock all the time, had less selection and were more expensive.

 

Watching a movie on your TV for $30 is crap and everything knows PVOD is going to die. Come on guys.

 

Yes if AMC goes under people would love to buy the successful theaters. The unsuccessful ones will be closed for good. There will be consolidation, lots of job losses and many markets will suffer due to less movie theaters.

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On 10/1/2020 at 9:49 PM, Ryan Reynolds said:

I think Hollywood will have to pitch in to save theaters, but they are waiting to after election to do anything if they have to 

I'd imagine they will have to as well or they can go from making a ton to crap fast.

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10 minutes ago, cax16 said:

 

Legit just got out of my local Regal a half hour ago. Gonna be gutted if this is the last time.

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Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

toys r us is nothing like AMC.

 

Going to toy store to buy a toy was nice but they ran out of stock all the time, had less selection and were more expensive.

 

Watching a movie on your TV for $30 is crap and everything knows PVOD is going to die. Come on guys.

 

Yes if AMC goes under people would love to buy the successful theaters. The unsuccessful ones will be closed for good. There will be consolidation, lots of job losses and many markets will suffer due to less movie theaters.

 

You assume folks will pay for either theater going or PVOD if this continues to linger for 6-12 more months...

 

It could be the industry shoots itself in the foot so badly, the only money there is in the future are streaming services and "regular" VOD (like $3.99 Redbox.com/Amazon.com rentals)...

 

See the music industry...pre-Napster and post-Napster.  Killing Napster did not bring back the sales - they never reappeared, and the whole industry makes a lot less...https://www.theguardian.com/music/2019/may/31/napster-twenty-years-music-revolution

Edited by TwoMisfits
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This is so sad :( - I hope for all our sakes that things can improve in the next 6-8 months and governments step in and help more so we have theatres to go back to next year.


And most importantly, I wish all these workers all the best and hope they can find new jobs.

 

So many industries have been fucked over now by covid, I know from first hand experience. Obviously that’s not more important then peoples health of course but it’s been really tough. 

 

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