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Coronavirus Movie Theatre Reopening Thread | Release Date Changes/Production News | Theaters are dead. Long live streaming!

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The story was posted. I went back and checked. Damn. This is playing out like a worst case scenario. I expect some kind of bankruptcy announcement from AMC sooner rather than later, unless they can borrow another large sum of money to buy another 6-9 months. I doubt it happens, though. I think they are pretty tapped out.

 

 

Edited by doublejack
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4 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

See that cliff post-Napster...and see that the entire industry is still down 25% from its heights even with the recent ramp ups.

 

The movie industry is ripe for the same type of cliff, more so now that they are setting their own cliff by literally withholding their product long term...just like music still has not found the revenue to fully replace physical, the movie industry will also struggle mightly to replace the physical they may lose through their own actions this late summer/fall/winter...

 

The movie industry was already ripe for a change...and yet, I don't think the industry will want the change they end up with if they continue on their current path...

If you want to completely ignore everything I wrote that’s fine just know you are incorrect when it comes to the film industry as they have already adapted by the studios launching their own streaming services. 

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1 hour ago, cdsacken said:

Imagine people saying all bars are gonna close because you can make drinks at home? lol I need a drink :D 

Where I live, bars have been closing. I'm not talking about during the COVID era, I mean over the last 5-6 years. Scores of bars are gone and it is far more than the usual turnover. There is maybe half the bars, or less, compared to what existed in the 80s and 90s.

 

Why? It is more than just the ability to make drinks at home. Bars have been an age old place to meet people, and that's been replaced with online and mobile options. Why spend a bunch of money on drinks and struggle to converse over loud music where there's a relatively small pool of people, when you can sit on your couch and watch TV of whatever and thumb through a large pool of potential matches on Tinder? 

 

I think bars will always be a thing, but that business is in decline, too.

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5 hours ago, dudalb said:

How is releasing a movie that is almost certainly going to bomb help theaters any?

You really don't have much concept of the realities of the film business.

Because the worst case 50 million and more like a low end of 60-80 million now is better than opening up with a quarter of theaters closed and the rest with basically the same capacity cap as now in April.  Sure there is a chance there is a bigger ceiling in April.  They are also delaying back end money which in the case of Bond with its Nov date would put it in a place to be one of 2 major releases in the last 12 months on VOD etc etc.  

 

Get the money now because there is high probability the money is not going to be much better and instead be worse in April.

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2 hours ago, cdsacken said:

toys r us is nothing like AMC.

 

Going to toy store to buy a toy was nice but they ran out of stock all the time, had less selection and were more expensive.

 

Watching a movie on your TV for $30 is crap and everything knows PVOD is going to die. Come on guys.

 

Yes if AMC goes under people would love to buy the successful theaters. The unsuccessful ones will be closed for good. There will be consolidation, lots of job losses and many markets will suffer due to less movie theaters.

 

TRU was 20 percent of the toy retail in 2017 so yeah a lot of people would stop in to buy their toys there.

 

Who are these people that would love to buy in?  They had a chance all year and yet AMC had to fight tooth and nail to restructure their debt to make it to the end of the year.  Who wants to buy into a dying industry with hostile suppliers that have more power? 

 

 

47 minutes ago, Jamiem said:

Not going to read the article because it’s The Guardian and they are generally awful. More people pay for Spotify right now than ever used Napster and well physical has lessened over time that was more of a by product of iTunes more so than Napster. In recent times music revenues have begun to reaccelerate (although COVID is going to dampen live performances although eventually virtual concerts may be a thing they’ve been popular in Fortnite) although it will be a while until it reaches the 90s peak if ever but I take issue with sales never coming back terminology you used. Here are some US stats (source is Matthew Ball on Twitter):

 

Ehv5Bm0WkAQmz6k?format=png&name=900x900

 

As far as theatres permanently shutting down (if that does happen which I doubt) I don’t think it matters to Studios as much as soon here are thinking saying the should dump films. What people need to realise is the growth is in the streaming services VOD (mainly SVOD which brought in about $50B last year) already brings in more revenue than theatrical (roughly $42B last year.) SVOD growing very rapidly this year for obvious reasons and it will be incredibly difficult for theatrical to take back the lead in the near future. 
 

As far as PVOD/digital rental I don’t think that will overtake theatrical and there is a clear reason that films are getting pushed back in that theatrical provides a nice amount of revenue and sometimes even profit before it moves onto the other platforms and places to be sold, that value chain is hard for Disney, Warner and Universal to give up especially on their biggest releases. 
 

Sources for the theatrical and SVOD Numbers:
 

https://www.indiewire.com/2020/03/2019-mpa-annual-report-future-is-streaming-1202216803/#!
 

http://www.digitaltvnews.net/?p=35215

 

 

 

 

 

It took 20 years for the music industry to hit to return to the revenue it produced in 2000.  In that time we have less new albums/singles released and less than half the working musicians. 

 

Its one thing when you have Mulan that makes 300 million world wide in theaters in a normal time than goes and makes money on VOD.  Its another when VOD has to do both what it would have done before and make up that missing 150-200 million in box office take home.

 

 

28 minutes ago, doublejack said:

Where I live, bars have been closing. I'm not talking about during the COVID era, I mean over the last 5-6 years. Scores of bars are gone and it is far more than the usual turnover. There is maybe half the bars, or less, compared to what existed in the 80s and 90s.

 

Why? It is more than just the ability to make drinks at home. Bars have been an age old place to meet people, and that's been replaced with online and mobile options. Why spend a bunch of money on drinks and struggle to converse over loud music where there's a relatively small pool of people, when you can sit on your couch and watch TV of whatever and thumb through a large pool of potential matches on Tinder? 

 

I think bars will always be a thing, but that business is in decline, too.

 

Thank you.  I know in places like NYC and Chicago there is less than a quarter of the bars today as there was in the 1970s.  Of course their will always be theaters but they are going to be closing and they will become niche. 

 

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20 minutes ago, jimisawesome said:

 

It took 20 years for the music industry to hit to return to the revenue it produced in 2000.  In that time we have less new albums/singles released and less than half the working musicians. 

 

Its one thing when you have Mulan that makes 300 million world wide in theaters in a normal time than goes and makes money on VOD.  Its another when VOD has to do both what it would have done before and make up that missing 150-200 million in box office take home.

 

The difference for the film industry is VOD is already bigger than theatrical as I mentioned in the post, to give a specific example Disney (which is the most successful when it comes to SVOD) made about $11B from studios in FY19 (that’s theatrical as well as TV deals, digital rental, physical media etc) versus in the first 3/4 of FY20 they have already made $12B from their Direct to Consumer business. 
 

sources on Disney: 

 

https://thewaltdisneycompany.com/app/uploads/2019/11/q4-fy19-earnings.pdf
 

https://thewaltdisneycompany.com/app/uploads/2020/08/q3-fy20-earnings.pdf
 

As far as Mulan that is more PVOD and I mentioned in my post about how the studios won’t be moving toward that in my opinion: As far as PVOD/digital rental I don’t think that will overtake theatrical and there is a clear reason that films are getting pushed back in that theatrical provides a nice amount of revenue and sometimes even profit before it moves onto the other platforms and places to be sold, that value chain is hard for Disney, Warner and Universal to give up especially on their biggest releases. 

Edited by Jamiem

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I'm not sure how releasing largely small, unknown films is going to help that much. if they don't draw enough customers than the theater loses by being open. 

 

There was always a small window for this year. The idea being you get things under control and then have a good late summer/early fall before later fall and winter you close things back down.

 

With what we are seeing in Europe now and where USA already is and likely to head, it is hard to see most theaters being able to remain open by the time we get to Nov as it is likely that not enough people would be willing to venture out (assuming they are allowed to go out by governments) as we get into cold/flu season. 

 

When the US had the summer surge that basically killed the small window the industry had. I never at any time felt like there would be a movie industry during the winter in North America and Europe. 

 

The ironic thing is that if everyone wore masks that would be more effective than any vaccine that is likely to come out within the next year or two (right now they are only requiring 50% effectiveness to go to market - if everyone wears masks the effectiveness is much higher than that). And of course the chance that there is any widespread distribution of vaccines before at least late spring if not summer next year is almost nil. If everyone wore masks we could get to a new normal pretty quickly. But as we have seen in the US from the beginning and saw in Europe as the summer wore on, the fatigue sets in and people stop doing something that is actually in their best interest.

 

My expectation is that even when movie going does really get ramped up the revenues are going to be done significantly. First, there are likely to be fewer theaters. Second, if theaters have to reduce capacity in any way for safety reasons and in order to get the public to come, then that will reduce revenues even if there is a full release schedule as movies will have to do with fewer seats than pre-COVID.

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It may be too late now, but the studios would’ve probably been well-served by creating wear-a-mask PSAs with top celebs and stars and running them 24/7 on cable and network shows. Spend those would-be marketing dollars on getting America on safer ground so theaters COULD open up more safely. 

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2 hours ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

See that cliff post-Napster...and see that the entire industry is still down 25% from its heights even with the recent ramp ups.

 

The movie industry is ripe for the same type of cliff, more so now that they are setting their own cliff by literally withholding their product long term...just like music still has not found the revenue to fully replace physical, the movie industry will also struggle mightly to replace the physical they may lose through their own actions this late summer/fall/winter...

 

The movie industry was already ripe for a change...and yet, I don't think the industry will want the change they end up with if they continue on their current path...

25% drop off absolutely! Death not even close. 50%. Niche is a 95% drop.

 

PVOD worked for trolls and failed miserably for most. It's a horrible platform that will be the niche that many are talking about. 

 

The idea of studios owning theaters is disturbing but interesting. Amazon and Netflix theaters would be kinda badass too.

Edited by cdsacken
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3 hours ago, Blaze Heatnix said:

There are lots of small indie horror movies that could get wide releases this month. Why isn't Freaky getting released this month? Freaky could be moved up.

 

Studios aren't clearly thinking straight. WB's big mistake was releasing a 200 million budgeted movie that was a original IP. People would like something easier to approach, and Tenet isn't that simple. It's complex even for Nolan's fans.

 

I'm glad Sony moved up Monster Hunter to December. I hope it stays. Other studios should move up movies with reasonable budgets. 

 

 

The premise is basically "Freaky Friday the 13th", so they have to release it on a Friday the 13th, because that is the plan, and it's not like they had months to consider changing it or anything...

 

That is what I am talking about, an inability of studios to adjust in a meaningful way. The marketplace is empty and it's October, a perfect time for horror movies. At this rate, there will barely be any theaters open by the middle of November. Maybe Blumhouse knows this and has the pivot to PVOD all ready to go. 

 

 

Edited by BoxOfficeFangrl
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27 minutes ago, BoxOfficeFangrl said:

The premise is basically "Freaky Friday the 13th", so they have to release it on a Friday the 13th, because that is the plan, and it's not like they had months to consider changing it or anything...

 

That is what I am talking about, an inability of studios to adjust in a meaningful way. The marketplace is empty and it's October, a perfect time for horror movies. At this rate, there will barely be any theaters open by the middle of November. Maybe Blumhouse knows this and has the pivot to PVOD all ready to go. 

 

 

Kinda got buried on the previous page but Freaky actually will be going to PVOD just 21 days after opening (Universal's got a similar plan for The Croods 2 as well). If theaters start shuttering en masse again these next few weeks (possible given that the only other option is to stay open only for no one to show up) they'll probably just make it a PVOD exclusive on November 13 anyway. Same with Croods 2 and its Thanksgiving launch (I saw an ad for that during SNL tonight that only said to watch the trailer online).

 

3 hours ago, filmlover said:

Universal will release Freaky and The Croods 2 on VOD a few weeks after they open. Between this and the Regal news, looks like it's almost officially "That's All Folks!" for 2020.

 

https://www.indiewire.com/2020/10/universal-theaters-short-windows-the-croods-and-freaky-1234590295/

 

 

Edited by filmlover
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I know it’s not ideal and there’s less demand than there would be for entirely new releases, but studios should open up their existing libraries and let theaters license titles for absurdly low rates. There’s no cost at all to the studios, but it’d be more of a lifeline than the theaters have now. 

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14 minutes ago, Plain Old Tele said:

I know it’s not ideal and there’s less demand than there would be for entirely new releases, but studios should open up their existing libraries and let theaters license titles for absurdly low rates. There’s no cost at all to the studios, but it’d be more of a lifeline than the theaters have now. 

If the (relatively) good numbers for Hocus Pocus this weekend are any indication we're sure to see the Christmas classics come back as fully wide re-releases next month to fill screen space. Expect A Christmas Story, Elf, The Polar Express, and others to return to the big screen provided theaters don't decide to shut their doors again before that can happen.

Edited by filmlover
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5 hours ago, Plain Old Tele said:

It may be too late now, but the studios would’ve probably been well-served by creating wear-a-mask PSAs with top celebs and stars and running them 24/7 on cable and network shows. Spend those would-be marketing dollars on getting America on safer ground so theaters COULD open up more safely. 

There were even reports of studios doing something lile this in a big push to get audiences back to cinemas, but of course none of that happened.

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for what it's worth - a 'put Bond back to November' narrative is forming amongst parts of the UK critic community

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15 minutes ago, antovolk said:

for what it's worth - a 'put Bond back to November' narrative is forming amongst parts of the UK critic community

It’s worth nothing — but it is hilarious

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26 minutes ago, antovolk said:

for what it's worth - a 'put Bond back to November' narrative is forming amongst parts of the UK critic community

I’ve noticed that too, along with a lot of people trying to guilt trip others for not going to the cinema in the middle of a pandemic...

 

This isn’t Bond’s fault. The Deadline article itself even says that distributors have tried agreeing new terms with Cineworld including shorter windows for films like Freaky, but Cineworld chose to be stubborn. This is all on Cineworld’s choice to not budge. I feel terrible for the cinema staff (some of whom are people I used to work with), but that company is run by total clowns who put profit over their own staff.

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I'm so sad with what's happening,

 

In my country, the theaters are still not open, well there there are very few, like 3 that are open and those are just build this year drive in cinemas.

 

Most of our cinema chains are part of malls and malls are in precarious situation as well so I'm not sure how can the movie industry survived in my country. 

 

Paid VOD will NEVER work here, people will just illegally download. So that's not an option. Netflix and studios uploading their catalog on YouTube somehow keeping them alive but still not the same with what they can make with theatrical

 

 

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