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Coronavirus Movie Theatre Reopening Thread | Release Date Changes/Production News | Theaters are dead. Long live streaming!

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5 minutes ago, RamblinRed said:

WarnerMedia chair and CEO Ann Sarnoff referred to the model as a “unique one-year plan.” Executives at the company have stressed the initiative isn’t expected to continue into 2022 or beyond — it’s considered a temporary solution in response to the ongoing global heath crisis.

 

“With this unique one-year plan, we can support our partners in exhibition with a steady pipeline of world-class films, while also giving moviegoers who may not have access to theaters or aren’t quite ready to go back to the movies the chance to see our amazing 2021 films,” she continued. “We see it as a win-win for film lovers and exhibitors, and we’re extremely grateful to our filmmaking partners for working with us on this innovative response to these circumstances.”

Yeah, let's see how that works out.

 

There is no way that after a year of getting "free" movies for $15 a month WB is going to be able to reverse that. This is permanent. The damage will be done. Theater count will be a fraction of what it was, and relying on box office for the primary revenue stream won't be viable. Even if it is safe and even if a larger percentage of theaters somehow manage to survive than I'm anticipating, people will be conditioned to no longer go to theaters.

 

Avengers Endgame GIF by MOODMAN

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I think movie theaters will be almost extinct in about ten years. This is definitely going to change the landscape. I think high budgeted tv shows like what we got with Game of Thrones and what we are currently getting with Mandalorian will become the norm and instead of a dozen 200m movies a year we will only get two or three.

 

With these moves it is very clear by now that these streaming services are far more important to the studios than theaters are. And there is no way this isn't going to continue past 2021.

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3 minutes ago, RockyMountain said:

I think movie theaters will be almost extinct in about ten years. This is definitely going to change the landscape. I think high budgeted tv shows like what we got with Game of Thrones and what we are currently getting with Mandalorian will become the norm and instead of a dozen 200m movies a year we will only get two or three.

 

With these moves it is very clear by now that these streaming services are far more important to the studios than theaters are. And there is no way this isn't going to continue past 2021.

Idk why you're assuming a pivot to streaming will even be a straight up success for these studios.

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2 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Idk why you're assuming a pivot to streaming will even be a straight up success for these studios.

Because that is what people like to do. Stay at home and watch movies. And the amount of people subscribing to these streaming services proves that. I hate to break it to you but people have been turning away from theaters for years already in favor of watching movies once they could watch them in the comfort of their own home. All this pandemic has done is sped up the path things were already on

 

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5 minutes ago, RockyMountain said:

Because that is what people like to do. Stay at home and watch movies. And the amount of people subscribing to these streaming services proves that. All this pandemic has done is sped up the path things were already on

This is a very simple way at looking at consumer behaviour, with nothing to back it up. There are also millions of people who go to cinemas every year. 

 

Quote

I hate to break it to you but people have been turning away from theaters for years already in favor of watching movies once they could watch them in the comfort of their own home.

At a very slow rate. It doesn't justify a rapid pivot to streaming. People have been moving away from movies in general (in favour of more personalized content, ie. youtube, gaming streams, insta/snapchat, tiktok, etc) for years too. Should studios stop making movies too then?

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11 minutes ago, RockyMountain said:

Because that is what people like to do. Stay at home and watch movies. And the amount of people subscribing to these streaming services proves that. I hate to break it to you but people have been turning away from theaters for years already in favor of watching movies once they could watch them in the comfort of their own home. All this pandemic has done is sped up the path things were already on

 

Actually, I think most people like to go out.

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It also doesn't make sense to say that the trend of theaters declining in favor of streaming would have continued at the same rate indefinitely (which is the basis of this "Covid accelerated what already would have happened" theory). These things are usually not that predictable. There are also challenges to exclusively dropping movies on premier access rather than theaters as we saw with Mulan (the fact that Disney blamed the Xinjiang controversy for lowering sales probably says something about the performance.

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24 minutes ago, doublejack said:

Yeah, let's see how that works out.

 

There is no way that after a year of getting "free" movies for $15 a month WB is going to be able to reverse that. This is permanent. The damage will be done. Theater count will be a fraction of what it was, and relying on box office for the primary revenue stream won't be viable. Even if it is safe and even if a larger percentage of theaters somehow manage to survive than I'm anticipating, people will be conditioned to no longer go to theaters.

 

Avengers Endgame GIF by MOODMAN

 

 

I think its just face saving language in case there is some white knight really out there willing to save theaters and not just completely throw their partners under the bus.   Because, yeah the writing is on the wall.  The trend was already people staying home before COVID, they will have had a year and half or more of not going to the theater and now they have day and date releases for their subscription costs not even PVOD.  

 

 

 

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3 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

This is a very simple way at looking at consumer behaviour, with nothing to back it up. There are also millions of people who go to cinemas every year. 

 

At a very slow rate. It doesn't justify a rapid pivot to streaming. People have been moving away from movies in general (in favour of more personalized content, ie. youtube, gaming streams, insta/snapchat, tiktok, etc) for years too. Should studios stop making movies too then?

 

THe only reason theaters have lasted this long anyways is because they generally had a handful of billion dollar blockbusters that they could count on every single year. Within the past year or so the studios that make those blockbusters have opened up their very own streaming services and they clearly see these streaming services as a better deal for them going forward than the theaters are.

 

As I said a couple posts ago we probably won't get nearly as many 200m movies made going forward. 

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Just now, RockyMountain said:

 

 

 

As I said a couple posts ago we probably won't get nearly as many 200m movies made going forward. 

The Rock's career is OVAH

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22 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Idk why you're assuming a pivot to streaming will even be a straight up success for these studios.

It probably won't...but it will be less bad than being flat-footed when it all crashes...

 

Napster and then its crash (and the industries crash) didn't help the music studios, but they sure did better off than, say, Tower Records, did...

 

If you see a crash coming, you wanna avoid it as much as possible, even if you still take some damage...

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10 minutes ago, RockyMountain said:

 

THe only reason theaters have lasted this long anyways is because they generally had a handful of billion dollar blockbusters that they could count on every single year. Within the past year or so the studios that make those blockbusters have opened up their very own streaming services and they clearly see these streaming services as a better deal for them going forward than the theaters are.

 

As I said a couple posts ago we probably won't get nearly as many 200m movies made going forward. 

I don't think it's a case of just streaming services vs theaters, it's more like [Premier Access window then put on streaming service] vs [theatrical window then put on streaming service]. Which may not be as clear a trade-off. Releasing blockbusters for no additional charge is not going to be long-term sustainable. And as we saw with Mulan, premier access doesn't mean instant profit. Switching entirely from movies to stuff like Mandalorian is a possibility, but could lead to oversaturation for services. 

Edited by Menor
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I think the days of  200 Million dollar blockbusters being routine might be at an end. Simply more difficult for films that expensive to make a good return on the investment on streaming.

There are reasons that TV productions have lower budgets then Movie productions.

Edited by dudalb
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And Californai wll go into deep lock down tommorow. This might well cancle the exemptions that fiom productions have gotten so far.

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1 minute ago, dudalb said:

I think the days of  200 Million dollar blockbusters being routine might be at an end. Simply more difficult for films that expensive to make a good return on the investment on streaming.

And I think we won't see any movies break into the top 100 of the all time world wide gross list for quite some time if ever.

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7 minutes ago, dudalb said:

I think the days of  200 Million dollar blockbusters being routine might be at an end. Simply more difficult for films that expensive to make a good return on the investment on streaming.

There are reasons that TV productions have lower budgets then Movie productions.

Many of the projects they currently had in line to be that expensive will probably be turned into tv shows.

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Ummm, near 90 million people went to see Endgame just last year in America. NINETY MILLION.  Show me a streaming service that has that many subscribers in the states. And that was just for one movie.  People love going to the movies.  Not in as consistently large numbers as once upon a time,  but it is still THE thing that people do for entertainment when getting out of the house. 

Personally I still believe people will go where the films they want to watch are.  If the only way they can see the next Avengers is in theaters, then that’s where they’ll go. 
 

I don’t think this news today will particularly thrill the millions of moviegoers out there that are missing going to the movies, let alone all the other things they love. 

 

This is a play for subscribers gamble, and at $15 a month, with that slate? On top of Netflix and Disney+ subs? I’m not convinced. 
 

whilst I do think Disney might well announce Black Widow for Disney Plus next week, it seems foolish to banish massive potential revenues from theatre-going when a vaccine is about to begin its rollout. In six months, with the vulnerable taken care of, this is going to be a whole different ball game. 
 

I wish WB had given the cinemas a month before putting the films on HBO Max, but there we go. You can bet most of the big movies will open internationally before they come out domestically. 

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9 minutes ago, wildphantom said:

Ummm, near 90 million people went to see Endgame just last year in America. NINETY MILLION.  Show me a streaming service that has that many subscribers in the states. And that was just for one movie.  People love going to the movies.  Not in as consistently large numbers as once upon a time,  but it is still THE thing that people do for entertainment when getting out of the house. 

Personally I still believe people will go where the films they want to watch are.  If the only way they can see the next Avengers is in theaters, then that’s where they’ll go. 
 

I don’t think this news today will particularly thrill the millions of moviegoers out there that are missing going to the movies, let alone all the other things they love. 

 

This is a play for subscribers gamble, and at $15 a month, with that slate? On top of Netflix and Disney+ subs? I’m not convinced. 
 

whilst I do think Disney might well announce Black Widow for Disney Plus next week, it seems foolish to banish massive potential revenues from theatre-going when a vaccine is about to begin its rollout. In six months, with the vulnerable taken care of, this is going to be a whole different ball game. 
 

I wish WB had given the cinemas a month before putting the films on HBO Max, but there we go. You can bet most of the big movies will open internationally before they come out domestically. 

"Number of Netflix paid streaming subscribers in the U.S. Q3 2011- Q3 2020. In the third quarter of 2020, Netflix had 73.08 million U.S. subscribers. The subscriber base in the United States accounts for the majority Netflix's worldwide streaming subscriber base, which at the end of 2019 stood at 167 million.Oct 21, 2020"

 

"Amazon Prime is constantly growing in the United States: as of December 2019, there were an estimated 112 million U.S. Amazon Prime subscribers, up from 95 million in June 2018.3 days ago"

 

And they pay, every month...not just for one movie...everyone wants to be Netflix (Amazon has more, thanks to Prime, but that's kinda cheating, since they offer way more than digital streaming for a sub - thus, everyone wants to be Netflix:)...few can be...
 

EDIT TO ADD: Amazon's now at 126M in the US - totally cheating, but damn...https://www.digitalcommerce360.com/article/amazon-prime-membership/

 

And this paragraph in the article tells you why HBO Max went all in - this is almost unbelievable for customer loyalty/inertia...

 

"Even more important, once a consumer signs up for Prime, she is unlikely to cancel her membership. For example, 64% of consumers who sign up for a trial membership convert to a paid membership, according to CIRP, and 93% of consumers continue to pay for the program after one year, while 98% stay signed up after they’ve been Prime members for two years."

Edited by TwoMisfits
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Amazon is a bit different as it’s the delivery service as much as the video. 

 

Whichever way you look at it,  three hundred million people paid to see Endgame worldwide. One movie. Not unlimited movies and tv shows....but ONE movie. That kind of revenue just cannot be attained by a streaming service.  
not only that, but people pay to see the movie, they pay to rent/buy it months later. There’s a number of windows for cash - as opposed to throwing it on streaming day one and then it’s over. 
 

I’m not as down at today’s news as some are.  I think it’s shortsighted and unsustainable.  People are always going to want to go out and see movies, and once we’re near the other side of this awful pandemic and a big movie goes all out theaters only - you’ll see fireworks. 
 

just a play for subscribers. All it is. 

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14 minutes ago, wildphantom said:

Amazon is a bit different as it’s the delivery service as much as the video. 

 

Whichever way you look at it,  three hundred million people paid to see Endgame worldwide. One movie. Not unlimited movies and tv shows....but ONE movie. That kind of revenue just cannot be attained by a streaming service.  
not only that, but people pay to see the movie, they pay to rent/buy it months later. There’s a number of windows for cash - as opposed to throwing it on streaming day one and then it’s over. 
 

I’m not as down at today’s news as some are.  I think it’s shortsighted and unsustainable.  People are always going to want to go out and see movies, and once we’re near the other side of this awful pandemic and a big movie goes all out theaters only - you’ll see fireworks. 
 

just a play for subscribers. All it is. 

 

People will want to go out...but we don't know what that will look like and where they'll want to go.

 

I mean, in years past, bowling alleys, pool halls, roller skating, mini golf, and arcades played big "go out" roles...will they return in more force than they've been the past few years?

 

Bars and clubs started to lose popularity the last few years - will that reverse?

 

I mean, lots of ways "going out" can go for the older and younger sets...not all of those ways involve movie-going...

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