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Coronavirus Movie Theatre Reopening Thread | Release Date Changes/Production News | Theaters are dead. Long live streaming!

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8 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

Black Widow is now already strongly rumored to be PVOD/theatrical day and date...if Disney gives in on a super scheduled for May, scratch everything for months after...

@WandaLegion still hopes BW will do 100M OW. Even if theaters open in like April, it will take a while for people to get accustomed to theater going again. 

 

Sony already moved Morbius to October. They know the chances of anything opening until fall are slim. I expect Venom to move to next year

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20 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

Black Widow is now already strongly rumored to be PVOD/theatrical day and date...if Disney gives in on a super scheduled for May, scratch everything for months after...

Not really. If Disney decides to go hybrid in early May, you could still get June blockbusters going pure theatrical. And Shang-Chi pure theatrical is very likely.

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10 minutes ago, Maggie said:

Sony already moved Morbius to October. They know the chances of anything opening until fall are slim.

They definitely don’t know that, because it’s false.

 

10 minutes ago, Maggie said:

I expect Venom to move to next year

:hahaha:

 

This is a hilarious reversal from Q1 2020. People couldn’t see the huge BO impact of the virus coming back then. Now they can’t see the recovery coming. 

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4 minutes ago, WandaLegion said:

Not really. If Disney decides to go hybrid in early May, you could still get June blockbusters going pure theatrical. And Shang-Chi pure theatrical is very likely.

I doubt Shang Chi opens in July. It means Disney is throwing away two of their most anticipated movies.

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1 minute ago, WandaLegion said:

 

 

:hahaha:

 

This is a hilarious reversal from Q1 2020. People couldn’t see the huge BO impact of the virus coming back then. Now they can’t see the recovery coming. 

Because now we have more data and the situation is even worse than last year at this time.

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2 minutes ago, Maggie said:

I doubt Shang Chi opens in July. It means Disney is throwing away two of their most anticipated movies.

It’s not throwing away when it makes a bunch of money because the virus is way down and theaters are open everywhere!

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2 minutes ago, Maggie said:

Because now we have more data and the situation is even worse than last year at this time.

The January situation is certainly much worse. The problem lies in thinking that will lead to a worse June situation.

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Just now, WandaLegion said:

The January situation is certainly much worse. The problem lies in thinking that will lead to a worse June situation.

Maybe i'm a pessimistic, but i don't see how things will improve in a significant way. The vaccination rate is low. Hopefully the Biden administration will get to work when he's in charge. January is gonna be wasted

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12 minutes ago, WandaLegion said:

They definitely don’t know that, because it’s false.

 

:hahaha:

 

This is a hilarious reversal from Q1 2020. People couldn’t see the huge BO impact of the virus coming back then. Now they can’t see the recovery coming. 

It's a very quick thing to destroy...it's a very long time to rebuild.

 

The state of movie theatrical after Covid abates (which I do think should be summer) will be "destroyed"...so, it's gonna need a full rebuild.  An outreach to consumers paid by the studios and supported by the talent (unlike last summer's outreach), a re-employment and reset to actually put showings all 7 days of the week at all normal times, actual product to see, and a decision on how to promote to try to "push" back consumers, b/c just opening won't really bring anyone...right now, you see who will go, and that number won't grow much just b/c someone says it's okay...

 

It will be 15 months come June 1 for many places to have no theatrical...you don't just open your doors, price at $20/ticket, and say "come in" and see the masses flock to your doors...

 

And this assumes the economy is not through the floor...if it collapses right after Covid is under control, well, folks are gonna sit home on their $7-9/month plans and live with them...

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2021 won't be normal but 2022 demand will be pretty intense I think.

 

Gotta wait to see how things shape up. Still gonna be months before we know..

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16 minutes ago, Maggie said:

Maybe i'm a pessimistic, but i don't see how things will improve in a significant way. The vaccination rate is low. Hopefully the Biden administration will get to work when he's in charge. January is gonna be wasted

Daily vaccinations are on a nice upward trend, should be reaching about 1M/day soon. That’s before improved policies around prioritization, switching to delaying 2nd doses, starting the push with pharmacy distribution, and Johnson&Johnson+other companies vaccine approvals. By the end of March or so we should have around 50%+ population immunity (~15%+ vaccine and 35%+ natural). As opposed to ~25% immunity at the moment that takes a humongous bite out of R. Behavioral+seasonal factors which would yield an R_t of 1.3 with 25% immunity instead yield and R_t of .87 or so with 50%. Doesn’t  take too many generations of R_T around .87 for case levels to come way down, and 4 weeks after that deaths are way down as well. That’s even before considering the benefits of population heterogeneity and targeting vaccines to those with most mortality risk.    
 

Now if you assume by then that the new strain will comprise pretty much all the cases, and that it’s 50% more transmissible, then you’re back to an R of 1.3 (though realistically you would also get a lot more population immunity in the next three months as things really spiraled out of control across the country). But even then by the end of April you’re probably in the low 60s for % of population immune, and R is getting extremely hammered.   
 

Even with a modest vaccine timeline and conservative total infected estimates, the numbers simply aren’t there for this to still be a big thing July. 

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As for the economy  the 2021 economy is going to be completely booming. People have a lot of pent-up money to spend and theaters are a natural outlet. WW84’s OW with like 60% of the market closed is also a clear indication of people’s desire to go back to moviegoing fast when the general national mode becomes that we’ve beaten the virus.   

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1 hour ago, TwoMisfits said:

And yet one probably adopted by all the biggies for the entire year...they'll just keep dragging out the decisions one-by-one, month-by-month (which, by that nature, also costs more money and provides more uncertainty to everyone)...

 

There is a carrying costs to these movies that they just let sit.  That cost can be actual interest on any loans or even pure opportunity cost of sitting that money in the S&P over the last year.  It's the wasted money on marketing already to losing the window to have your star go on the talk shows and promote the movie.  Its just having a movie that is past its sell by date because people feel they have already seen it after 3 years of marketing.  You have the loss of cross promotional deals or even product placement deals that you have to payback.  You have the delay in receiving any revenue not just from theaters but the post theater period like TV rights and Disk sales. 

 

At this point why is a movie like Morbius not either moving to streaming or just keeping its date? 

 

 

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9 minutes ago, WandaLegion said:

Daily vaccinations are on a nice upward trend, should be reaching about 1M/day soon. That’s before improved policies around prioritization, switching to delaying 2nd doses, starting the push with pharmacy distribution, and Johnson&Johnson+other companies vaccine approvals. By the end of March or so we should have around 50%+ population immunity (~15%+ vaccine and 35%+ natural). As opposed to ~25% immunity at the moment that takes a humongous bite out of R. Behavioral+seasonal factors which would yield an R_t of 1.3 with 25% immunity instead yield and R_t of .87 or so with 50%. Doesn’t  take too many generations of R_T around .87 for case levels to come way down, and 4 weeks after that deaths are way down as well. That’s even before considering the benefits of population heterogeneity and targeting vaccines to those with most mortality risk.    
 

Now if you assume by then that the new strain will comprise pretty much all the cases, and that it’s 50% more transmissible, then you’re back to an R of 1.3 (though realistically you would also get a lot more population immunity in the next three months as things really spiraled out of control across the country). But even then by the end of April you’re probably in the low 60s for % of population immune, and R is getting extremely hammered.   
 

Even with a modest vaccine timeline and conservative total infected estimates, the numbers simply aren’t there for this to still be a big thing July. 

What about the UK strain? that's already in the us and it's curently ravaging the uk

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1 minute ago, Maggie said:

What about the UK strain? that's already in the us and it's curently ravaging the uk

That’s literally what the middle paragraph of my post is about?

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3 minutes ago, WandaLegion said:

That’s literally what the middle paragraph of my post is about?

sorry, i just saw that. I like your optimism. hopefully things improve

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The idea that there will be a 100m opening weekends come summertime is pure fantasy at this point. They should be ecstatic to get 40% of that number. And no the virus will not be under control by summer. It will easily be late this year/early next year before things get relatively back to normal again.

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47 minutes ago, WandaLegion said:

Daily vaccinations are on a nice upward trend, should be reaching about 1M/day soon. That’s before improved policies around prioritization, switching to delaying 2nd doses, starting the push with pharmacy distribution, and Johnson&Johnson+other companies vaccine approvals. By the end of March or so we should have around 50%+ population immunity (~15%+ vaccine and 35%+ natural). As opposed to ~25% immunity at the moment that takes a humongous bite out of R. Behavioral+seasonal factors which would yield an R_t of 1.3 with 25% immunity instead yield and R_t of .87 or so with 50%. Doesn’t  take too many generations of R_T around .87 for case levels to come way down, and 4 weeks after that deaths are way down as well. That’s even before considering the benefits of population heterogeneity and targeting vaccines to those with most mortality risk.    

Where are you getting 25% immunity from? 

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29 minutes ago, RockyMountain said:

The idea that there will be a 100m opening weekends come summertime is pure fantasy at this point. They should be ecstatic to get 40% of that number. And no the virus will not be under control by summer. It will easily be late this year/early next year before things get relatively back to normal again.

So can I put you down as OUT then 😛 ?

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2 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Where are you getting 25% immunity from? 

yeah, it's about 10%

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