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Coronavirus Movie Theatre Reopening Thread | Release Date Changes/Production News | Theaters are dead. Long live streaming!

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Everything that's set to be a simultaneous release (Raya, the WB titles) for the first four months are sure to come out but everything beyond that is up in the air. Highly, highly doubt No Time to Die and A Quiet Place are being released in April.

 

The majority of possible release date changes likely won't happen until early March when we will have had several weeks of an actual president in charge of the country again and a better idea of how the vaccine distribution will go. The return to normalcy is gonna be a marathon, not a sprint (this goes for everything beyond just movies).

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To quote Confucius “Real knowledge is to know the extent of one's ignorance.”

 

I feel both sides are overly confident here, there are still too many unknowns that will need to be determined such as:

 

- will we get more mutated strains 

- will people want to get out and back to normal 

- will the global recession and rise of streaming impact cinema

- will the vaccine actually be taken up by enough people (specifically in the US) as you have frontline healthcare workers (who should be one of the most receptive groups to getting the vaccine) who are hesitant :

 

“Yesterday I had a – not a fight, but I had a friendly argument with more than 50% of my nurses in my unit telling me that they would not get the vaccine," he told Morning Edition. 

 

Some of those nurses have had family members admitted to the hospital, gravely ill with COVID-19. But he said some nurses and hospital staff members — many of whom are Latinx or Black — are skeptical it will work and are worried about unfounded side effects”

source: https://www.npr.org/2020/12/16/947248103/at-houston-hospital-head-of-covid-19-unit-sees-some-staff-wary-of-a-vaccine

 

All of these and other numerous aspects will determine what does eventually happen but right now I’m neither super optimistic nor pessimistic as there is both good and bad news right now and that will likely continue to play out throughout the next few months, we will probably have a much much better idea of how things are looking in March/April once we have a good (or bad) amount of vaccines administered and we fully understand the impact of the UK strain.

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1 minute ago, lorddemaxus said:

Where are you getting 25% immunity from? 

From https://covid19-projections.com/, which I found to be a pretty good source over the summer and fall and usually pretty close to other expert estimates.   
 

If you prefer the low end of that confidence interval it would just be 17% at present, but correspondingly if you took the high end it would 40 (this is not compatible with the observed levels of spread recently though, imo).

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3 minutes ago, WandaLegion said:

From https://covid19-projections.com/, which I found to be a pretty good source over the summer and fall and usually pretty close to other expert estimates.   
 

If you prefer the low end of that confidence interval it would just be 17% at present, but correspondingly if you took the high end it would 40 (this is not compatible with the observed levels of spread recently though, imo).

ah interesting. makes sense

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23 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Where are you getting 25% immunity from? 

 

18 minutes ago, WandaLegion said:

From https://covid19-projections.com/, which I found to be a pretty good source over the summer and fall and usually pretty close to other expert estimates.   
 

If you prefer the low end of that confidence interval it would just be 17% at present, but correspondingly if you took the high end it would 40 (this is not compatible with the observed levels of spread recently though, imo).

 

When it comes to Youyang Gu's projections for the future, there is this page:

 

https://covid19-projections.com/path-to-herd-immunity/

 

If you look at his charts, Youyang Gu currently projects around 60% of the country will be immune due to either surviving the 'rona in the first place (121m | 36%) plus those who have received at least one shot of various vaccines (79m | 24%).

 

I am unsure how he is accounting for folks who got the 'rona and are ALSO getting the 'rona vaccine in his models as I would think even if folks who were symptomatic/have a known diagnosis shy away from the vaccine (no sure bet, IMO) the folks who were asymptomatic or who had no symptoms whatsoever will still be getting shots in their arms.

 

Then there is the dreaded logistics.  As WandaLegion knows from our discussions in his BW club, I am not nearly as sanguine as he is when it comes to the vaccine rollout.  I think the incoming Administration will help quite a bit.  But just as it took longer than it should have to get the teething problems out of the way in regards to testing, I think we're still in for a bumpy road when it comes to scaling up vaccine distribution.

 

Overall, I do agree WandaLegion that the economy is gonna do quite well, though since they're political reasons I won't go into them in this thread.

 

I just think my timetable is a month or two or so behind his. ;)

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7 minutes ago, Porthos said:

I am unsure how he is accounting for folks who got the 'rona and are ALSO getting the 'rona vaccine in his models

Quote
  • We assume a proportion of the vaccinated population already possesses immunity via infection. For simplicity, we assume individuals who already possess immunity from natural infection will get vaccinated at the same rate as susceptible individuals. If an individual possesses immunity from both vaccination and infection, we only count this individual as “immune via infection”.

I don’t want to put too much faith in one model to make predictions too far out, but it is pretty notable that that forecast has infections on May 7 at 32k, as compared to about 700k at present. That could be off by 500% and it’s still pretty good news. And it explicitly does not include any vaccines aside from Moderna and Pfizer. 

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California isn’t even projected to hit the peak of this current crisis until the end of February. And it’s a high peak. I’m pretty doubtful about urban CA theaters reopening until like July.

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Yeah, this seems like a fantastic source but I'm also not as high as him on vaccine rollout (his projected vaccination graph seems to be a little ahead of the actual vaccination estimates for the last couple days). Think it's gonna be a while before it all smoothens out. Still thinking Europe September 2020 levels around late May/early June is what we'll see.

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12 minutes ago, Plain Old Tele said:

California isn’t even projected to hit the peak of this current crisis until the end of February. And it’s a high peak. I’m pretty doubtful about urban CA theaters reopening until like July.

Quote

My projection is that California will see a peak in infections on Jan. 27, with 135,800 new infections. Peak mortality will be after that — around Feb. 9, with 652 deaths from the virus in one day.

https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2021-01-08/when-will-covid-surge-be-over-heres-what-to-watch-for

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13 minutes ago, WandaLegion said:

*quote snipped*

Yeah, I saw that, but it didn't really answer my question on whether or not the model would try to figure out how many people might be expected to "double-dip" as it were.

13 minutes ago, WandaLegion said:

 

I don’t want to put too much faith in one model to make predictions too far out, but it is pretty notable that that forecast has infections on May 7 at 32k, as compared to about 700k at present.

True enough, and agreed.  Though I do note that he's already upped his target number for effective herd immunity (from 60% to 70%) due to the more infectious variant getting introduced.  As more of that variant gains an foothold, could mess up the longer range projections.

 

As for making projections "too far out" Youyang himself implies, is kinda... ambitious to try to project six or more months out. :)  

13 minutes ago, WandaLegion said:

And it explicitly does not include any vaccines aside from Moderna and Pfizer. 

This, however, I think is something that isn't given enough attention.  AstraZenca should be cleared sooner or later.  We should be getting trial results from Johnson & Johnson soon as well.  When, or should I say "if" in the case of J&J, those get added, that should be a strong...

 

....

 

Wait for it...

 

Shot in the arm for both vaccine distribution as well as the economy.   

 

Only real question in my mind is how long it is gonna take to get the logistics problems ironed out as well as, for us at least, what the state of the theater industry is gonna be like once it does.

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13 minutes ago, Maggie said:


His projections were made a couple of weeks ago and to date the actual caseloads are dramatically higher than he predicted for this time. For example, using your quoted bit, his peak morbidity is Feb 9 with 652 deaths but we’ve already hit 670+ three weeks earlier.

Edited by Plain Old Tele
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2 minutes ago, Plain Old Tele said:


His projections were made a couple of weeks ago and to date the actual caseloads are dramatically higher than he predicted for this time. 

Couldn't "like" the post, but still wanted to give a reaction, so...

 

And, yeah.  I don't think I'm quite as pessimistic as you are, though I suspect I am closer to your position than I am WandaLegion's.

 

The timing is interesting as it does kinda depend on what you meant by "urban CA theaters".  I agree that SoCal has a large hill to climb out of as much of it never really got close to getting out of the Widespread tier in the first place.  Other areas of Cali might be a bit sooner though. 
 

Mostly I reckon this year is gonna mimic last year's in which counties are the first to start going down the tier list.   Just think LA is gonna be the last major urban county to get clearance in this state, which in turn affects my thinking on when theaters nationwide start seeing real numbers.

 

If I had any faith whatsoever in Los Angeles County seeing daylight sooner than later, I think I'd be closer to WandaLegion's position.  As it is though... qnqGT0e.png

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Do want to make one point though.  My biggest fear/dread about both of the mRNA vaccines wasn't logistics, as I knew that would very likely be a shitshow at first.  No, I was more worried about reports of fatal reactions or other very bad side-effects of the vaccines once they got into the general populace. 

 

While enough time hasn't quite passed for me to think we have truly walked out of the woods on that front, every passing day that goes by without major stories breaking in those regards makes me feel a little bit better on how things will be later this year.  Debate then becomes when "later" actually is.

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19 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Couldn't "like" the post, but still wanted to give a reaction, so...

 

And, yeah.  I don't think I'm quite as pessimistic as you are, though I suspect I am closer to your position than I am WandaLegion's.

 

The timing is interesting as it does kinda depend on what you meant by "urban CA theaters".  I agree that SoCal has a large hill to climb out of as much of it never really got close to getting out of the Widespread tier in the first place.  Other areas of Cali might be a bit sooner though. 


I suspect my pessimism is because of where I live. :lol: 

 

“Urban theaters”: Yeah, I’m thinking the SoCal counties here, and the Bay Area. Possibly Sacramento too. I think most of Northern California will open up first, SF might follow if they crush it fast. Then Bay Area suburbs. I think LA county will be one of the last (if not THE last).

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6 hours ago, Porthos said:

Yeah, I saw that, but it didn't really answer my question on whether or not the model would try to figure out how many people might be expected to "double-dip" as it were.

True enough, and agreed.  Though I do note that he's already upped his target number for effective herd immunity (from 60% to 70%) due to the more infectious variant getting introduced.  As more of that variant gains an foothold, could mess up the longer range projections.

 

As for making projections "too far out" Youyang himself implies, is kinda... ambitious to try to project six or more months out. :)  

This, however, I think is something that isn't given enough attention.  AstraZenca should be cleared sooner or later.  We should be getting trial results from Johnson & Johnson soon as well.  When, or should I say "if" in the case of J&J, those get added, that should be a strong...

 

....

 

Wait for it...

 

Shot in the arm for both vaccine distribution as well as the economy.   

 

Only real question in my mind is how long it is gonna take to get the logistics problems ironed out as well as, for us at least, what the state of the theater industry is gonna be like once it does.

 

I used to think more vaccines would help speed everything up, but seeing rollout right now, the hold up is in the"paperwork/admin" side (at least in my state), which may be on purpose since they only have so many shots, so the easiest way to not disappoint is to slow down the front end and not get folks in line until you know you have product...

 

But, if it's not on purpose, and they don't add folks and tech capability (or even just more phones), they are only gonna get X done per day for "regular" people, no matter how many doses and vaccines they have.

 

That said, they do have "vaccine clinics" by important job field where the admin side gets either skipped or routed to some other group, so it will likely be "fast" for the levels of essential workers (we had 3 levels and about 10 groups at each level) and SLOW for the not...

Edited by TwoMisfits

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4 hours ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

I used to think more vaccines would help speed everything up, but seeing rollout right now, the hold up is in the"paperwork/admin" side (at least in my state), which may be on purpose since they only have so many shots, so the easiest way to not disappoint is to slow down the front end and not get folks in line until you know you have product...

 

But, if it's not on purpose, and they don't add folks and tech capability (or even just more phones), they are only gonna get X done per day for "regular" people, no matter how many doses and vaccines they have.

 

That said, they do have "vaccine clinics" by important job field where the admin side gets either skipped or routed to some other group, so it will likely be "fast" for the levels of essential workers (we had 3 levels and about 10 groups at each level) and SLOW for the not...

That's why I compared the current situation to the rollout on testing.  Some of the same perverse incentives (triage with short supply) plus trying to ramp up to literally nationwide distribution.   I don't need to tell you that, cliche as the idea is, battles can be won or lost on the logistical end of things.

 

The bigger problem right now is the medical industry is trying to ramp up vaccine distribution while also giving out hundreds of thousands of COVID tests every day while also being slammed by the height of the second wave/third wave/whatever-you-want-to-call-the-current-peak.

 

Can't even fully blame areas for not fully prepping for this over the last six months given the... let's be kind and call it lack of full coordination on just what would happen once vaccines did become available, including funding mandates.  Hard to plan when one doesn't know what resources will be available.  Doesn't absolve various locals from not having sound plans in place, but is a contributing factor in my mind.  Which is another sad parallel to the testing rollout.

 

But, all of the above said, the fact that the US actually sorta-kinda got a good testing regime set up eventually (not enough to really combat it, no — but enough to get large number of tests done) gives me enough reason to believe that we'll be able to deliver large amounts of vaccines every day in time.  Emphasis on "in time".

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i think many are missing the idea that even with the vaccines, that does not mean that mitigation measures are likely to go away in the short term. When theaters start to re-open i would expect there to continue to be mitigation measures such as limited seating per showing. I don't expect those to go away until the fall at the earliest. 

 

As long as we have a ranging pandemic stretching health resources that will negatively impact the ability to deliver shots in arms as there is at least some overlap in the resources and personnel needed for those tasks. Syirnges and glass vials are needed in hospitals just as they are need to provide vaccines. Some of the same personnel is likely to be used for both. 

 

I fully expect their to be a summer movie season, but it won't be a 'normal' summer movie season imo. I expect numbers to be lower than normal both due to a percentage of the population not feeling comfortable to resume activities and i expect mitigation measures to be in place that will limit cinemas capacity. It's alot easier to lose trust than it is to rebuild it.

 

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On 1/12/2021 at 9:12 AM, Porthos said:

Do want to make one point though.  My biggest fear/dread about both of the mRNA vaccines wasn't logistics, as I knew that would very likely be a shitshow at first.  No, I was more worried about reports of fatal reactions or other very bad side-effects of the vaccines once they got into the general populace. 

 

While enough time hasn't quite passed for me to think we have truly walked out of the woods on that front, every passing day that goes by without major stories breaking in those regards makes me feel a little bit better on how things will be later this year.  Debate then becomes when "later" actually is.

 

Doctor’s Death After Covid Vaccine Is Being Investigated

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/12/health/covid-vaccine-death.html

 

Quote

Vaccines stimulate the immune system, and in theory could, in rare cases, cause it to mistakenly identify some of a patient’s own cells as enemy invaders that should be destroyed.

Dr. Spivak said several things made the vaccine the mostly likely suspect in Dr. Michael’s case. The disorder came on quickly after the shot, and was so severe that it made his platelet count “rocket” down — a pattern like that in some cases brought on by drugs such as quinine. In addition, Dr. Michael was healthy and young, compared with most people who develop chronic forms of the ailment from other causes

 

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On 1/13/2021 at 8:39 AM, RamblinRed said:

i think many are missing the idea that even with the vaccines, that does not mean that mitigation measures are likely to go away in the short term. When theaters start to re-open i would expect there to continue to be mitigation measures such as limited seating per showing. I don't expect those to go away until the fall at the earliest. 

 

As long as we have a ranging pandemic stretching health resources that will negatively impact the ability to deliver shots in arms as there is at least some overlap in the resources and personnel needed for those tasks. Syirnges and glass vials are needed in hospitals just as they are need to provide vaccines. Some of the same personnel is likely to be used for both. 

 

I fully expect their to be a summer movie season, but it won't be a 'normal' summer movie season imo. I expect numbers to be lower than normal both due to a percentage of the population not feeling comfortable to resume activities and i expect mitigation measures to be in place that will limit cinemas capacity. It's alot easier to lose trust than it is to rebuild it.

 

 

There is going to be a lot of 'safety theater' for a while both as pure theater and because the current science does not make it down to this level.  So yeah I just don't see any surviving theater chain allowing full capacity until at least Nov at the earliest even if by some miracle we basically end it by July.   They will want to be seen as being overly safe for the customers.  They will also likely lose a showing per screen too in order to be able to do the deep clean to again show they are overly safe.

 

The major grocery store chain by me still has a couple of employees at the entrance to show they are cleaning each cart despite the evidence being it does not easily via touching.  But, this is the type of info that is still believed and even medical sites still have on as a way of a common transmission.   So because this is believed this kind of action is going to continue to take place for a while.  

 

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