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Coronavirus Movie Theatre Reopening Thread | Release Date Changes/Production News | Theaters are dead. Long live streaming!

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In other news (no fighting on Super Bowl Sunday, everyone), I'm guessing Judas will be #1 over the long weekend with about $2M or so. Being available to watch at home hurts, but it's also the kind of movie that would do well the most in the LA/NYC markets and those are down for the count so it's gonna be pretty much left with scraps everywhere else.

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6 minutes ago, Eric Gardner said:

Aren't you the dude who threw a temper tantrum because The Mandalorian thread was pro-trans rights and you said you were gonna leave forever because this forum was pro-trans rights? Maybe it's best you keep to your promise.

Was that the reason or was I taking issue with the fact that you were making fun of Carano when all she was doing was refusing to give in to people who were trolling her. It had nothing to do with how I feel about trans rights.  

Edited by RockyMountain

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IMO, the absolute main reason to be cautious about the current drop when forecasting future trends is that the much more infectious B117 variant still doesn't appear to have a strong foothold in the US.  If we're looking at this from a pure theatrical viewpoint, it's something of a race between vaccine rollout and B117 getting it's hooks into the DOM market.

 

Even, for the sake of argument, if the B117 variant doesn't lead to another surge it could very easily slow down the deceleration we're seeing right now, leading to another situation like we had last summer where the US was at a pretty stubborn, if gently sloping downward, plateau.

 

What I am basically saying is that it is hard to look at the current trend (rapidly dropping leading indicators) and presume it will hold if the underlying conditions that are fueling the current trend change.

Edited by Porthos
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I've been to the movies only twice since the pandemic started (Tenet and Wonder Woman 1984, the latter as part of a big group private watch showing) and at this point I doubt I'll be returning until I get vaccinated (gonna just pay the $30 to watch Raya on D+). That's not looking to happen anytime soon unfortunately so I'm fine with everything continuing to get pushed back. 

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50 minutes ago, filmlover said:
1 (1) The Little Things Warner Bros. $2,100,000 -56% 2,206 +35 $952 $7,800,000 2
2 (2) The Croods: A New Age Universal $1,760,000 -3% 1,935 +59 $910 $46,019,550 11
3 (4) The Marksman Open Road $1,000,000 -20% 2,018 n/c $496 $9,113,445 4
4 (3) Wonder Woman 1984 Warner Bros. $905,000 -30% 1,864 n/c $486 $40,300,000 7
5 (5) Monster Hunter Sony Pict… $585,000 -20% 1,476 -39 $396 $11,881,895 8
- (6) News of the World Universal $400,000 -26% 1,537 -137 $260 $10,883,730 7
- (7) Promising Young Woman Focus Fea… $220,000 -17% 923 -133 $238 $4,673,675 7
- (8) Fatale Lionsgate $170,000 -22% 864 -158 $197 $5,826,242 8
- (9) The War with Grandpa 101 Studios $167,333 +18% 530 +5 $316 $19,824,409 18
- N Earwig and the Witch GKIDS $99,941   430   $232 $99,941 1
- (-) Our Friend Roadside … $95,000 -31% 627 -191 $152 $588,251 3

 

 

The Numbers - Weekend Box Office Chart for February 5, 2021 (the-numbers.com)

 

So, back to January's trend of $9M or less Top 10 DOM weekends...no sign there's any recovery, even with more DOM theaters supposedly opened over the last few weeks.

 

The next interesting movie to see if we can get a bump is probably Tom and Jerry - family movies are doing the best of the bad lot of performances since Tenet.  However, unlike the Croods, it will be free for HBO Max folks, so maybe the better indicator will be Raya, since D+ people can't get that free, so it is more "theater or bust" for the small families (2-4 folks)...if Raya can't get us to at least $50M Top 10 DOM for a weekend (since T&J will also be there and even more theaters will be open), well, it might not be time to just pack up the spring schedule...

 

PS - I should also add - I'm expecting next weekend, we should hit $20M+ DOM...just for the holiday and 3 day bump, if nothing else...

Edited by TwoMisfits
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10 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

So, back to January's trend of $9M or less Top 10 DOM weekends...no sign there's any recovery, even with more DOM theaters supposedly opened over the last few weeks.

 

The next interesting movie to see if we can get a bump is probably Tom and Jerry - family movies are doing the best of the bad lot of performances since Tenet.  However, unlike the Croods, it will be free for HBO Max folks, so maybe the better indicator will be Raya, since D+ people can't get that free, so it is more "theater or bust" for the small families (2-4 folks)...if Raya can't get us to at least $50M Top 10 DOM for a weekend (since T&J will also be there and even more theaters will be open), well, it might not be time to just pack up the spring schedule...

 

PS - I should also add - I'm expecting next weekend, we should hit $20M+ DOM...just for the holiday and 3 day bump, if nothing else...

To be fair, The Croods has been available to watch on PVOD since its fourth weekend and that doesn't seem to have slowed it down in theaters one bit (all by pandemic standards, that is).

 

The 4-day holiday weekend is likely gonna be a slow frame considering the only openers (Judas and Robin Wright's Land) are barely gonna make a dent and everything else is either a holdover that's not making much or is an older movie that's been brought back to fill screens for Valentine's Day (like The Notebook, Fifty Shades of Grey, or Crazy Rich Asians, all of which are currently playing in my area) and can be easily watched at home.

Edited by filmlover

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45 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Without a date as to when LA and NYC theaters will be reopening, it's not really worth arguing as to whether the marketplace will be ready for a tentpole again two-three months from now (which is why everyone pretty much said "off to the fall we go" a couple of weeks back). The recovery isn't gonna happen overnight, especially when we'll likely still be wearing masks and social distancing measures will still be in place by the time 2022 gets here.

 

To add on, even with theaters in CA and NY open its going to be a long time before crowds show back up if the discussions around reopening school are any indication.  From what I see in these discussions no amount of public awareness or CinemaSafe will matter a significant number of people believe going anywhere means you get covid and die and no amount of peer review will change their minds.

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 I like to be disagreeable so I will say not late spring, not late summer. Let's say June 1sy, deaths down over 80% from today's numbers with over 150m vaccinated. Likely 200m.

Edited by cdsacken

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I'm curious - have any of the 3 major DOM theater companies released their subscription numbers for the end of 2020 (like we're getting from streaming).  I'm assuming they both probably took a hit, and yet are keeping theaters afloat.  I'd guess Cinemark had the best retention and best help for its theaters b/c it's only 1 ticket a month and it's rollable (so families could have saved up for Croods or WW), but I'd love real numbers.

 

Anyone know?

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1 hour ago, filmlover said:

In other news (no fighting on Super Bowl Sunday, everyone), I'm guessing Judas will be #1 over the long weekend with about $2M or so. Being available to watch at home hurts, but it's also the kind of movie that would do well the most in the LA/NYC markets and those are down for the count so it's gonna be pretty much left with scraps everywhere else.

2M wouldn’t be enough for #1 over the long weekend, Croods will be pulling around 2.2M+   
 

I think Judas will be #1 though. If the 3-day is like 60% weaker than TLT, which is a Max-to-Max comp, that’s still about 1.9, and then 2.3ish for the 4-day.

Edited by WandaLegion

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1 hour ago, Porthos said:

IMO, the absolute main reason to be cautious about the current drop when forecasting future trends is that the much more infectious B117 variant still doesn't appear to have a strong foothold in the US.  If we're looking at this from a pure theatrical viewpoint, it's something of a race between vaccine rollout and B117 getting it's hooks into the DOM market.

 

Even, for the sake of argument, if the B117 variant doesn't lead to another surge it could very easily slow down the deceleration we're seeing right now, leading to another situation like we had last summer where the US was at a pretty stubborn, if gently sloping downward, plateau.

 

What I am basically saying is that it is hard to look at the current trend (rapidly dropping leading indicators) and presume it will hold if the underlying conditions that are fueling the current trend change.

The current trends are completely unsustainable, they would basically wipe the virus out  (~10k daily cases, meaning 3 weeks later about 100 daily deaths) in just 60 days. The good news is that even if the current trends slow by half the situation is pretty good. The bad news is they could slow by more than half or even reverse depending on vaccines timelines and variants.

Edited by WandaLegion

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44 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

no sign there's any recovery

🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️

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42 minutes ago, WandaLegion said:

🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️

In DOM box office:)...there is no sign of recovery in DOM BO (see whole sentence:).  That's undeniable still...we'll see if Valentine's Day can give any sign of life that recovery in box office is starting:)...

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2 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

In DOM box office:)...there is no sign of recovery in DOM BO (see whole sentence:).  That's undeniable still...we'll see if Valentine's Day can give any sign of life that recovery in box office is starting:)...

Yeah, the problem is that there are continued signs of recovery. The top 10 is still awful, but it’s a Super Bowl weekend where nothing new opened, so of course it’s going to be awful. Things are holding very well Fri+Sat in part due to the continued reopenings.   
 

However, I do agree that we need to see some more concrete signs of health at some point soonish if studios are going to hold firm in later spring. Tom and Jerry and Raya will really be the ones to watch there.

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1 hour ago, WandaLegion said:

Yeah, the problem is that there are continued signs of recovery. The top 10 is still awful, but it’s a Super Bowl weekend where nothing new opened, so of course it’s going to be awful. Things are holding very well Fri+Sat in part due to the continued reopenings.   
 

However, I do agree that we need to see some more concrete signs of health at some point soonish if studios are going to hold firm in later spring. Tom and Jerry and Raya will really be the ones to watch there.

I wouldn’t pin much hope to Tom & Jerry, I haven’t seen a single positive thing about it since the trailer dropped, and honestly I just don’t know who it’s even aimed at. I really doubt there’s that much of an audience for a Tom & Jerry film these days, particularly one that looks as tired as this one.

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4 minutes ago, SnokesLegs said:

I wouldn’t pin much hope to Tom & Jerry, I haven’t seen a single positive thing about it since the trailer dropped, and honestly I just don’t know who it’s even aimed at. I really doubt there’s that much of an audience for a Tom & Jerry film these days, particularly one that looks as tired as this one.

I don’t have very high hopes for Tom and Jerry either, but if it opens to like 10M that would be a positive indicator I think. Maybe it can get there, maybe not, don’t really have a strong opinion on it without any tracking, presales, etc.   

 

Raya will the first big release since the pandemic peaked and started plummeting back down. If it’s perceived as showing a still very damaged marketplace, I think we’ll see a lot of delay announcements the week after. If it’s perceived as doing surprisingly well, more people will keep waiting.

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4 hours ago, Porthos said:

IMO, the absolute main reason to be cautious about the current drop when forecasting future trends is that the much more infectious B117 variant still doesn't appear to have a strong foothold in the US.  If we're looking at this from a pure theatrical viewpoint, it's something of a race between vaccine rollout and B117 getting it's hooks into the DOM market.

 

Even, for the sake of argument, if the B117 variant doesn't lead to another surge it could very easily slow down the deceleration we're seeing right now, leading to another situation like we had last summer where the US was at a pretty stubborn, if gently sloping downward, plateau.

 

What I am basically saying is that it is hard to look at the current trend (rapidly dropping leading indicators) and presume it will hold if the underlying conditions that are fueling the current trend change.

If there's one thing we have learned in the UK from it, its that nothing less than a full lockdown stops it once it has taken hold. All non-essential retail and schools closed.

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This Tom & Jerry movie looks like it literally stepped out of 2003 (with in-demand actors circa 2020/2021). Don't think it would make a whole ton of money even in normal times.

 

Raya will be the next test as to how well a movie can do during a pandemic since it's the only one in the next couple of weeks that won't be available for free with a subscription service (add in the D+ price and you're already looking at spending nearly $40 to watch it at home).

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2nd May 14 movie (after Rumble) to tumble out of the month...Marry Me moves from May 14 to Feb 11 2022...the trend may start accelerating, since this was Universal, and they, like WB, had been good about keeping dates...

 

https://deadline.com/2021/02/jennifer-lopez-romantic-comedy-marry-me-postpones-wedding-date-1234689912/

Edited by TwoMisfits

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we are one month away from first year anniversary of  global cinema meltdown

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