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Coronavirus Movie Theatre Reopening Thread | Release Date Changes/Production News | Theaters are dead. Long live streaming!

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1 minute ago, filmlover said:

So The Little Things was actually #1 this weekend? Huh.

No. Well, maybe.  
 

The 2.4 is a 4-day, where it tied Judas. 3-day not getting released.

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1 hour ago, filmlover said:
1 (1) The Little Things Warner Bros. $2,400,000 +14% 2,090 -116 $1,148 $10,600,000 3
2 (2) The Croods: A New Age Universal $2,040,000 +21% 1,890 -45 $1,079 $48,318,710 12
3 N Judas and the Black M… Warner Bros. $2,000,000   1,888   $1,059 $2,000,000 1
4 (3) The Marksman Open Road $1,100,000 +15% 1,825 -193 $603 $10,423,385 5
5 (4) Wonder Woman 1984 Warner Bros. $1,100,000 +22% 1,681 -183 $654 $41,800,000 8
6 N Land Focus Fea… $940,000   1,231   $764 $940,000 1
7 (5) Monster Hunter Sony Pict… $650,000 +11% 1,366 -110 $476 $12,687,168 9
8 (6) News of the World Universal $385,000 -2% 1,243 -294 $310 $11,357,530 8
9 (7) Promising Young Woman Focus Fea… $182,000 -18% 733 -190 $248 $4,922,315 8
10 (-) The War with Grandpa 101 Studios $180,287 +15% 525 -5 $343 $20,026,257 19
- N The Mauritanian STX Enter… $145,000   245   $592 $145,000 1

 

The Numbers - Weekend Box Office Chart for February 12, 2021 (the-numbers.com)

I know there was ice on the east coast...but $11Mish Top 10 DOM for Valentine's weekend is horrid.  As is the Judas HBO Max opener compared to Denzel's The Little Things opener last month.  

 

Look for Black Widow to kick by the end of this week,..the market's somehow still going backwards from Christmas, even with all the vaccine movement...

Edited by TwoMisfits
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54 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

I know there was ice on the east coast...but $11Mish Top 10 DOM for Valentine's weekend is horrid.  As is the Judas HBO Max opener compared to Denzel's The Little Things opener last month.  

 

Look for Black Widow to kick by the end of this week,..the market's somehow still going backwards from Christmas, even with all the vaccine movement...

There's already talk (via the Variety article the other day) that Fast 9 might move all the way to next year. Wouldn't be surprised if it happens (although I hope it does just so it can become the first movie ever to be promoted during three separate SuperBowl games lmao). The studios are gonna do what they feel is best for their bottom line.

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1 hour ago, TwoMisfits said:

Look for Black Widow to kick by the end of this week,

:hahaha::hahaha::hahaha:

 

I really doubt Disney is that silly. You keep talking about the top 10 like studios will care. The top 10 is low because there aren’t movies out that people really care about seeing, and we’re still in a period of high deaths/very close to a period of high cases. You’ve got to look where. Things. Are. Headed.

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Movies like Fast 9 and Black Widow are heavily dependent upon international box office (definitely more in the case of the Fast franchise), and until there's a sign of a stable environment they can release them in, they'll continue to be pushed back. These movies are also probably contracted to have big global promo tours to build hype, and those are still just impossible (and will be until at least the second half of the year on the optimistic side of things). They need a guarantee for that to happen, in the meantime studios can still put their "expendable" projects out there as hybrid releases so that the backlog of movies doesn't continue to grow.

Edited by filmlover
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International will also be in pretty good shape by May (it certainly helps that the biggest OS market by far for F&F and MCU is setting records as we speak). It won’t be a perfect marketplace by any means in late spring/early summer but good enough that getting going with big releases makes more sense than delaying them again or leaving money on the table with 0-day windows.

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15 minutes ago, WandaLegion said:

International will also be in pretty good shape by May (it certainly helps that the biggest OS market by far for F&F and MCU is setting records as we speak). It won’t be a perfect marketplace by any means in late spring/early summer but good enough that getting going with big releases makes more sense than delaying them again or leaving money on the table with 0-day windows.

Possibly, but I'm guessing their assessing things from a marketing/promo tour standout in the next few months (these are not the kinds of movies that you want to be promoting via Zoom exclusively) and the verdict is "not good," which is likely why there's already rumors that Fast 9 might be heading to 2022. We've already seen stars drop out of projects because of travel reasons, so the number of them feeling comfortable going around the world promoting a movie (or even going to see a movie in a theater - we already know Daniel Craig said he wouldn't and one assumes his wife, who also has a delayed tentpole waiting to be released, feels the same way) is certainly even smaller.

Edited by filmlover
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1 hour ago, WandaLegion said:

International will also be in pretty good shape by May (it certainly helps that the biggest OS market by far for F&F and MCU is setting records as we speak). It won’t be a perfect marketplace by any means in late spring/early summer but good enough that getting going with big releases makes more sense than delaying them again or leaving money on the table with 0-day windows.

This. 
 

There’s the likes of John Campea, convinced Disney will move Widow again. I keep saying, it isn’t all about America now. A near $400 million opening weekend for Detective Chinatown 3 is going to have them doubling down on releasing it as planned - whether the US is ready for it or not. 
 

I think international will likely ensure a pretty decent summer performance for the studios. 
 

I’m not taking anything for granted after the horrendous year everybody has had, but I think it’s important to be hopeful. 
 

I watched Con Air and Face/Off over the weekend. What a summer 1997 was. We took it for granted 

Edited by wildphantom

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1 hour ago, wildphantom said:

This. 
 

There’s the likes of John Campea, convinced Disney will move Widow again. I keep saying, it isn’t all about America now. A near $400 million opening weekend for Detective Chinatown 3 is going to have them doubling down on releasing it as planned - whether the US is ready for it or not. 
 

I think international will likely ensure a pretty decent summer performance for the studios. 
 

I’m not taking anything for granted after the horrendous year everybody has had, but I think it’s important to be hopeful. 
 

I watched Con Air and Face/Off over the weekend. What a summer 1997 was. We took it for granted 

WW84 only made 25m in China. What the latest American made Super hero movie made in China is going to have a far bigger impact on what Disney decides to do then what a Chinese comedy did there during a Chinese holiday.

Edited by RockyMountain
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1 minute ago, RockyMountain said:

WW84 only made 25m in China. What the latest American made Super hero movie made in China is going to have a far bigger impact on what Disney decides to do then what a Chinese comedy made in China during a Chinese holiday did.

Soul made over 50m, who cares. China didn’t like Wonder Woman. They go see movies they like, bottom line. 

Edited by cax16
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13 minutes ago, cax16 said:

Soul made over 50m, who cares. China didn’t like Wonder Woman. They go see movies they like, bottom line. 

And if North America isn't ready to support it yet then keeping it on release date strictly because of China would be a very bad business decision when the last film of the  genre that was released there made as little as it did.

Edited by RockyMountain
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3 minutes ago, RockyMountain said:

And if North America isn't ready to support it yet then keeping it on release date strictly because of China would be a very bad business decision when the last film of the  genre that was release there made as little as it did.

Wonder woman’s box office has nothing to do with black widows and Disney knows that. Marvel movies always perform good-amazing there. Also, Disney isn’t releasing anything strictly because of China. 

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2 minutes ago, cax16 said:

Wonder woman’s box office has nothing to do with black widows and Disney knows that. Marvel movies always perform good-amazing there. Also, Disney isn’t releasing anything strictly because of China. 

 

Well then if they aren't releasing anything strictly because of China then it is better off the movie gets bumped after seeing how the box office is still performing in NA. In anycase it is getting to the point to where it doesn't matter anylonger because the release date is just a little over two months away and the marketing for the film hasn't even started yet. If it doesn't start within the next week or two you can pretty much count on the film getting bumped. They aren't going to releae a movie that is that expensive to make with only a few weeks marketing push in this environment.

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3 minutes ago, RockyMountain said:

 

Well then if they aren't releasing anything strictly because of China then it is better off the movie gets bumped after seeing how the box office is still performing in NA. In anycase it is getting to the point to where it doesn't matter anylonger because the release date is just a little over two months away and the marketing for the film hasn't even started yet. If it doesn't start within the next week or two you can pretty much count on the film getting bumped. They aren't going to releae a movie that is that expensive to make with only a few weeks marketing push in this environment.

Black Widow is still over two months away and there have been no blockbuster releases lately. 

 

Disney should at least wait to see how Raya does, Raya and GvK will give a clearer picture of where the box office is headed. 

Edited by Jamiem
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28 minutes ago, RockyMountain said:

WW84 only made 25m in China. What the latest American made Super hero movie made in China is going to have a far bigger impact on what Disney decides to do then what a Chinese comedy did there during a Chinese holiday.

Chinese audience hated WW84, just like audience in several other countries. Chinese box office is incredibly responsive to reception, so it flopped hard. That doesn’t indicate anything about the health of the market — where movies opened 2 days ago that will probably gross around $2B. Black Widow with the exact same date and competition probably would have done 150M+, just like in will in April, May, June, or July.

Edited by WandaLegion
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I think Black Widow and Fast 9 (especially Fast 9) now stay on their dates because of China and what’s happened with Detective Chinatown having the largest opening ever. 
 

They are the two Hollywood movies that you’d expect to gross $150+ million each in normal times and with pent up demand they could go even higher. If they only make $50-$100 mil in America so be it, they now have the safety net of China that ensures at the very least a $500mil worldwide gross each. 

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I didn’t expect my post to be met with questioning whether people would show up for a brand they’ve consistently shown up for in a territory. 
My point was that the appetite for going to the movies in China right now is clearly extraordinary. You can look further back from this weekend to see that.  An MCU movie, or a F&F movie is about as sure a thing as Hollywood has for that market. With them having just spent a record $400 million in 3 days on one of their own comedies (even with some distancing) bodes like a pretty sure thing for Black Widow. 
 

I don’t see them delaying it again. 

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12 minutes ago, wildphantom said:

I didn’t expect my post to be met with questioning whether people would show up for a brand they’ve consistently shown up for in a territory. 
My point was that the appetite for going to the movies in China right now is clearly extraordinary. You can look further back from this weekend to see that.  An MCU movie, or a F&F movie is about as sure a thing as Hollywood has for that market. With them having just spent a record $400 million in 3 days on one of their own comedies (even with some distancing) bodes like a pretty sure thing for Black Widow. 
 

I don’t see them delaying it again. 

To be fair, even if F9 made like 400M in China, that would only be about 80M in profits for universal, basically as useful as 140M or something in domestic gross. IF the domestic market was going to be unable to support 200M grossers then, a final delay could make sense.   

However the way the virus is going it looks like there will be ~50 daily deaths or something by memorial weekend, so...

 

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My two cents is that we have nothing but speculation to go on until we have an actual date as to when LA/NYC theaters will be reopening, cause studios aren't spending a penny on marketing a theatrical-only/non-hybrid release and will just keep delaying until they do. Not a direct correlation but Disney already said a few days ago they're not expecting Disneyland to be up and running again until July at the earliest, so not getting my hopes up for Black Widow and Fast 9 opening within the next three months or so.

Edited by filmlover
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I think studios need those key theaters open AND a potentially sacrificial lamb to see if people are gonna flock to theaters. I’m not really sure exactly how people will react here in SoCal — I’m sure at least some will go, of course, but what will the total demand be?

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