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Coronavirus Movie Theatre Reopening Thread | Release Date Changes/Production News | Theaters are dead. Long live streaming!

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Focusing on LA and NYC is weird. On the one hand, yes, absolutely crucial markets that studios won’t go forward on true blockbusters without.   
 

On the other hand, it’s not like these are independent variables from “how is the virus going nationally” and studios will need to get lucky by having both be favorable at once. The status of NYC and LA is extremely linked to the course of the virus. If (probably when) the general sense in April is “hallelujah, cases and deaths near zero, a strong majority of the adult population is immune” it’s not like these regions will decide they want to wait another couple months to open just for kicks.     
 

So, you don’t really need to treat it as an independent variable. If virus conditions are good enough to permit big releases, they’ll be open, and if they aren’t open, it’s because virus conditions aren’t good enough to support good releases. You can just focus on where the virus will likely be in March and April — currently unknown, maybe B117 throws a spanner in the works etc, but looking pretty pretty pretty good.

Edited by WandaLegion
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1 hour ago, WandaLegion said:

Focusing on LA and NYC is weird. On the one hand, yes, absolutely crucial markets that studios won’t go forward on true blockbusters without.   

I believe it was reported during the whole Tenet release drama last year they make up like 20-25% of the overall domestic box office? Not an insignificant amount. One can't blame studios for waiting until they have an absolute guarantee as to when those markets will be up and running again to even resume spending money on promoting movies.

 

1 hour ago, Plain Old Tele said:

I think studios need those key theaters open AND a potentially sacrificial lamb to see if people are gonna flock to theaters. I’m not really sure exactly how people will react here in SoCal — I’m sure at least some will go, of course, but what will the total demand be?

Assuming LA/NYC are open by the time of its current middle of May opening, Free Guy would work as the first major movie back. It would likely open in the $20-25M range in any scenario so if it matched or exceeded those expectations it would be a good sign for the stability of the marketplace. Death on the Nile was also fully ready to open before being delayed at the 11th hour last fall and would make for another good test subject if one of its stars wasn't embattled at the moment.

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48 minutes ago, antovolk said:

 

Yeah I really don’t think that will have the effect they hope it will. It’ll limit their audience more than anything. Seniors won’t be rushing to watch Black Widow...

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30 minutes ago, SnokesLegs said:

Yeah I really don’t think that will have the effect they hope it will. It’ll limit their audience more than anything. Seniors won’t be rushing to watch Black Widow...

I think this idea is gonna really only gonna come into popularity, if ever, after September, once they hit the all adults being offered the vaccine deadline 

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16 minutes ago, antovolk said:

I think this idea is gonna really only gonna come into popularity, if ever, after September, once they hit the all adults being offered the vaccine deadline 

Sounds like they’re seeing it as a more immediate potential solution to re-opening according to that article/tweet.


I think they’ll struggle to enforce it anyway to be honest, I really can’t imagine the average teenage cinema usher refusing entry to someone when they don’t have a vaccine passport, and if my experience of most cinema management is anything to go by they’ll probably just bend over backwards and let them in regardless just to avoid creating a scene. “I forgot my vaccine passport” will become the new “I forgot my ID”.

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Sony has suddenly added Long Weekend (a romantic comedy starring Finn Wittrock) to the schedule for wide release...three weeks from now (March 12). Expect it to make nothing like the other random titles they picked up to give theaters content to fill their screens with last fall. They recently changed the release plans for The Father as well (it'll be in select theaters next weekend, expand to a couple more March 12, and will be available on PVOD two weeks after that).

 

‘The Nightingale’: Elle And Dakota Fanning’s WWII Sisters Pic Pushed By One Year – Deadline

Edited by filmlover
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Live theatre in Australia. 

 

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1 (1) The Croods: A New Age Universal $1,700,000 -18% 1,913 +23 $889 $50,854,205 13
2 (3) The Little Things Warner Bros. $1,205,000 -41% 2,061 -29 $585 $11,755,000 4
3 (2) Judas and the Black M… Warner Bros. $905,000 -56% 1,906 +18 $475 $3,356,000 2
4 (4) Wonder Woman 1984 Warner Bros. $805,000 -29% 1,644 -37 $490 $42,733,000 9
5 (5) The Marksman Open Road $775,000 -30% 1,643 -182 $472 $11,450,349 6
- (6) Land Focus Fea… $500,000 -44% 1,251 +20 $400 $1,626,205 2
- (8) News of the World Universal $245,000 -35% 1,161 -82 $211 $11,706,560 9
- (10) The War with Grandpa 101 Studios $224,188 +17% 653 +128 $343 $20,329,117 20
- (-) The Mauritanian STX Enter… $135,000 -18% 287 +39 $470 $349,552 2
- (9) Promising Young Woman Focus Fea… $111,000 -44% 679 -54 $163 $5,111,995 9

 

The Numbers - Weekend Box Office Chart for February 19, 2021 (the-numbers.com)

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Too bad The Croods will be available on home media plus the arrival of Tom & Jerry and Raya soon because it would be amusing to see it officially overtake Tenet as the biggest movie of the pandemic era.

 

Deadline is reporting $503K for Nomadland from an unknown amount of theaters this weekend. As good as anyone could've expected for an awards contender available to watch with a free subscription to Hulu at the same time whose main target audience of older adults still aren't going anywhere near a movie theater. 

 

‘Croods 2’ Crosses $50M; Searchlight Staying Quiet On ‘Nomadland’ B.O. & What That Means During Awards Season – Deadline

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8 minutes ago, filmlover said:
1 (1) The Croods: A New Age Universal $1,700,000 -18% 1,913 +23 $889 $50,854,205 13
2 (3) The Little Things Warner Bros. $1,205,000 -41% 2,061 -29 $585 $11,755,000 4
3 (2) Judas and the Black M… Warner Bros. $905,000 -56% 1,906 +18 $475 $3,356,000 2
4 (4) Wonder Woman 1984 Warner Bros. $805,000 -29% 1,644 -37 $490 $42,733,000 9
5 (5) The Marksman Open Road $775,000 -30% 1,643 -182 $472 $11,450,349 6
- (6) Land Focus Fea… $500,000 -44% 1,251 +20 $400 $1,626,205 2
- (8) News of the World Universal $245,000 -35% 1,161 -82 $211 $11,706,560 9
- (10) The War with Grandpa 101 Studios $224,188 +17% 653 +128 $343 $20,329,117 20
- (-) The Mauritanian STX Enter… $135,000 -18% 287 +39 $470 $349,552 2
- (9) Promising Young Woman Focus Fea… $111,000 -44% 679 -54 $163 $5,111,995 9

 

The Numbers - Weekend Box Office Chart for February 19, 2021 (the-numbers.com)

Another week, another nothing-burger.  Even with 47% theaters open (which is a decent percent more than Dec), nothing's budging...the market just continues a drift downward with this being a sub $10M top 10 (right now, it's actually sub $7M, but I assume actuals and Nomadland have it a little higher, since Deadline has Nomadland at $503K, so that kicks Promising Young Woman out of the top 10 DOM).

 

We'll see if Tom and Jerry gives any life to the screen next weekend.

 

https://deadline.com/2021/02/croods-new-age-weekend-box-office-nomadland-searchlight-not-reporting-oscars-1234697869/

 

"Nomadland grossed an estimated $503K,"

Edited by TwoMisfits

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Seems like the MAX movies do get bigger than usual drops while on MAX and then stabilize a bit after.   
 

The awkward part for exhibitors and WB is that they've dropped so low by the 5th weekend  that stabilizing for wknds 6-9 doesn't really matter.   
 

Still, WB is surely laying more attention to their streaming nums than to these.

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1 minute ago, WandaLegion said:

Seems like the MAX movies do get bigger than usual drops while on MAX and then stabilize a bit after.   
 

The awkward part for exhibitors and WB is that they've dropped so low by the 5th weekend  that stabilizing for wknds 6-9 doesn't really matter.   
 

Still, WB is surely laying more attention to their streaming nums than to these.

Last weekend was also a 4-day weekend (with a major holiday falling on last Sunday) which might explain why the drops are a bit more harsh for everything (except Croods) - at least for pandemic standards - this weekend.

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3 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Last weekend was also a 4-day weekend (with a major holiday falling on last Sunday) which might explain why the drops are a bit more harsh for everything (except Croods) - at least for pandemic standards - this weekend.

Last weekend being inflated by Valentine’s Day is repaonwible for a lot of this. Croods for instance is actually up Fri+Sat this weekend, but down nearly 50% weekly from the inflated Sun.    
 

But I meant compared to other movies this weekend re:Max. Doesn’t seem like a huge effect, still a pretty small sample set of MAX 2nd weekends, MAX 3rd weekends, etc.

Edited by WandaLegion

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Hope all the Oscar contender could lead the first wave of box office recovery in late april, assuming the pandemic to largely tamed .

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Just announced - UK cinemas reopening May 17 at the earliest, with drive-ins from April 12.

 

last straw for Black Widow to move - precluding an unliely D+ Premier Access launch? F9 may stay for Asia/Pacific and just delay in UK/Europe/US? And now that means GVK and Mortal Kombat are not happening theatrically at time of US/HBO Max drops.

Edited by antovolk
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1 hour ago, antovolk said:

Just announced - UK cinemas reopening May 17 at the earliest, with drive-ins from April 12.

 

last straw for Black Widow to move - precluding an unliely D+ Premier Access launch? F9 may stay for Asia/Pacific and just delay in UK/Europe/US? And now that means GVK and Mortal Kombat are not happening theatrically at time of US/HBO Max drops.

Yeah I really can’t see Disney sticking with May for BW, the UK is a big market for it and people were relatively slow to return during the summer last year (I know there was a lack of content, but even so), they need to ramp it back up slowly to regain customer confidence. I’m thinking they move BW to July or even August.

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If UK is opening cinemas in May, I don't see a lot of major European markets open until May either. 

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