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Coronavirus Movie Theatre Reopening Thread | Release Date Changes/Production News | Theaters are dead. Long live streaming!

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20 hours ago, Eric Atreides said:

I know that people aren't going to like me saying this, and I'll admit I'm stealing this from our fellow BOT member @antovolk, but I feel like even after the vaccine drops, theaters might become more like vinyl, where it appeals more towards cinema purists. It's already started to go that way last year, and Trolls showed you could make about the same amount of money as a typical theatrical OW through VOD, where studios get an even bigger lion's share. At the very least, the theatrical window's gonna be a lot smaller once this is over.

Vinyl is not a good comparison, imo.  People will still be willing to pay extra to see a movie when it comes out, rather than waiting, as they had been before.  Further, movie theaters for many in the general audience are not just about watching a specific movie, they’re also an activity that gets people out of the house (for dates, families, friends, etc)

 

Vinyl is a specific form of media that accomplishes the same thing as buying a CD or streaming music (at home music playing).  There’s a collector’s aspect to it, but they’re much closer to a perfect substitute for other ways of playing music than Theatrical releases are for at home video.

 

This doesn’t mean that streaming markets and theater chains aren’t in competition with each other.  Easier access to new, high quality media content at home would impact theater sales.  But they don’t come close to filling all of the various niches that movie theaters appeal to.

 

Certainly possible that smaller films go straight to streaming more often, and that the theatrical media consumption market contracts in certain ways as streaming platforms go.  That seems rather likely, but outright elimination of theatrical markets would be rather unlikely imo because of some of the niches mentioned above that are not filled through streaming.

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36 minutes ago, The Panda said:

Vinyl is not a good comparison, imo.  People will still be willing to pay extra to see a movie when it comes out, rather than waiting, as they had been before.  Further, movie theaters for many in the general audience are not just about watching a specific movie, they’re also an activity that gets people out of the house (for dates, families, friends, etc)

 

Vinyl is a specific form of media that accomplishes the same thing as buying a CD or streaming music (at home music playing).  There’s a collector’s aspect to it, but they’re much closer to a perfect substitute for other ways of playing music than Theatrical releases are for at home video.

 

This doesn’t mean that streaming markets and theater chains aren’t in competition with each other.  Easier access to new, high quality media content at home would impact theater sales.  But they don’t come close to filling all of the various niches that movie theaters appeal to.

 

Certainly possible that smaller films go straight to streaming more often, and that the theatrical media consumption market contracts in certain ways as streaming platforms go.  That seems rather likely, but outright elimination of theatrical markets would be rather unlikely imo because of some of the niches mentioned above that are not filled through streaming.

Oh I agree that theaters won't be eliminated. There's still money in there, especially with IMAX and PLF. I just feel like there will be shifts that will make theatrical not as essential to studios, and will be skewed more towards film buffs. For example, it honestly wouldn't surprise me, even with some major releases, that movies begin to open on the same day as theaters and VOD, with theaters being a slightly larger price.

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1 hour ago, Eric Atreides said:

Oh I agree that theaters won't be eliminated. There's still money in there, especially with IMAX and PLF. I just feel like there will be shifts that will make theatrical not as essential to studios, and will be skewed more towards film buffs. For example, it honestly wouldn't surprise me, even with some major releases, that movies begin to open on the same day as theaters and VOD, with theaters being a slightly larger price.

The thing is with movie theaters you get the "crowd" experience which you can't get at home by yourself, which makes it unlikely that they will be geared towards a more niche market. Who knows, maybe moviegoing will come back stronger than ever once we've fully reached normalcy again following months of people being trapped in their homes.

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4 minutes ago, grim22 said:

I wonder if movie theaters can become a flashpoint in the cultural war with red States deciding to "Go to the movies to own the libs"

Special screenings of Birth of a Nation. 

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6 hours ago, MrGlass2 said:

Possibly no sportsball events in California until 2021. It isn't hard to imagine that it would also be the case for movie theaters (almost as "non-essential" as it gets unfortunately) and then you have to wonder if movie studios would release blockbusters at all. Not to mention the situation in New York and New Jersey.

 

Don't forget that even in China, theaters are still closed despite the virus being more or less contained:

2021 is my guess.

But for 80% of theaters to get back up and running, studios don't have to release blockbusters...it could be the year of the cheaply priced mid-tier and low budget movies...people will be jonesing to go out and theaters and studios will probably work with each other to make something work for the last 6 months of this year, so that 2021 can start with a bang...

 

PS - And this is said with the subscriber bases of the 3 big chains in mind...I expect that those family subscriptions that never got off the ground with any of the 3 might become a thing, too...

Edited by TwoMisfits
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I've been thinking studios should put their old movies in theaters for free for those first few weeks to coax people back into theaters.  Let theaters make money off of concessions without having to pay anything to studios.  Also there's a chance that putting some lesser known movies will expose them to a wider audience and then the studios can make something off of home video.  Like if Memento or In Bruges (just to pick a couple of my favorites) played for a couple weeks for free I think they could get a small bump in home video sales afterwards.

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2 hours ago, MattW said:

I've been thinking studios should put their old movies in theaters for free for those first few weeks to coax people back into theaters.  Let theaters make money off of concessions without having to pay anything to studios.  Also there's a chance that putting some lesser known movies will expose them to a wider audience and then the studios can make something off of home video.  Like if Memento or In Bruges (just to pick a couple of my favorites) played for a couple weeks for free I think they could get a small bump in home video sales afterwards.

I agree, but maybe not obscure titles. Do something that'll get the masses interested again. Classic movies from different generations.

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2 hours ago, DAJK said:

I agree, but maybe not obscure titles. Do something that'll get the masses interested again. Classic movies from different generations.

Movies like the first Wonder Woman and the original Mulan for free would be perfect to test the waters with the release dates of the newer movies currently set to be among the first new movies to open if theaters reopen by July.

Edited by filmlover
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On 4/19/2020 at 4:21 AM, Eric Atreides said:

and Trolls showed you could make about the same amount of money as a typical theatrical OW through VOD

The Trolls OW number could be for WW (it's not being specified anywhere if it's DOM numbers or WW) and I wouldn't call 50 mil a good WW OW numbers espescially considering how frontloaded new releases on VOD seem to be (Trolls already went below The Gentlemen on Apple). If the movie had a 100 mil production budget, I could certainly see it still be a small flop or just barely break-even.

Edited by lorddemaxus
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1 minute ago, lorddemaxus said:

The Trolls OW number could be for WW (it's not being specified anywhere if it's DOM numbers or WW) and I wouldn't call 50 mil a good WW OW numbers espescially considering how frontloaded new releases on VOD seem to be (Trolls already went below The Gentlemen on Apple).

I think Trolls is DOM + UK + Aus? Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I think @Eric Atreides mentioned this in the Trolls thread, unless I'm remembering wrong.

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7 hours ago, MattW said:

I've been thinking studios should put their old movies in theaters for free for those first few weeks to coax people back into theaters.  Let theaters make money off of concessions without having to pay anything to studios.  Also there's a chance that putting some lesser known movies will expose them to a wider audience and then the studios can make something off of home video.  Like if Memento or In Bruges (just to pick a couple of my favorites) played for a couple weeks for free I think they could get a small bump in home video sales afterwards.

I think that might be a mistake

 

People tend to not want to pay again or pay the normal price after they got things for free. By far not all, but a considerable amount of people seem to tend to feel entitled to... too easily

 

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2 hours ago, DAJK said:

I think Trolls is DOM + UK + Aus? Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I think @Eric Atreides mentioned this in the Trolls thread, unless I'm remembering wrong.

Not in Australia mate. The AU release got deferred to September in cinemas. 

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7 hours ago, lorddemaxus said:

The Trolls OW number could be for WW (it's not being specified anywhere if it's DOM numbers or WW) and I wouldn't call 50 mil a good WW OW numbers espescially considering how frontloaded new releases on VOD seem to be (Trolls already went below The Gentlemen on Apple). If the movie had a 100 mil production budget, I could certainly see it still be a small flop or just barely break-even.

https://www.indiewire.com/2020/04/trolls-world-tour-vod-revenue-impact-universal-1202225471/

 

Quote

Multiple sources confirm that the first week of VOD rentals for “Trolls World Tour” has likely passed $50 million in domestic revenues in its first six days. The same sources suggest that it is also doing well in foreign territories — but unlike the theatrical norm, North American grosses are taking the lead.

 

And before you say anything, yes I know that says "first six days". However, most other sources, including Deadline recently, have said "opening weekend". So I personally think that's a typo.

 

I also don't really get how moving down one place on Apple, especially because The Gentlemen recently became a rental, when all movies get a second wind of sales, is a sign of frontloading or sales dropping. If it was a few more positions I would buy it, and I could see that happen soon, since Tuesday's likely when Sonic and Bad Boys become rentals, but it still seems like it's chugging along fine to still be in the top 2, and in the coming days, it'll probably still be comfortably in the top 5.

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Just because theaters CAN reopen doesn't mean they WILL reopen. My guess is that the big national chains will hold off for a bit.

 

That said, the new systems with distancing and skipped seating will need to be tested and perfected, so I guess Georgia is volunteering to be the guinea pigs for the rest of us.

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9 minutes ago, kitik said:

Just because theaters CAN reopen doesn't mean they WILL reopen. My guess is that the big national chains will hold off for a bit.

With the next release not for a while (The High Note on May 8 is the next wide release on the calendar but we all know that won't be happening - I suspect Focus announces it's going to streaming at the 11th hour), it's unlikely theaters there will have much of an incentive to reopen.

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