Jump to content
DeeCee

Coronavirus Movie Theatre Reopening Thread | Release Date Changes/Production News | Theaters are dead. Long live streaming!

Recommended Posts

30 minutes ago, reddevil19 said:

It absolutely is meaningless.

They weren't showing anything new, there has been no marketing, either for movies or the reopening itself.

 

It could very well be that the first big release flops, but without them releasing it, there is zero substantial data to evaluate and make further decisions. There HAS to be something that gauges audience interest levels. And Trolls 2 or Jaws 3D ain't it

 

They probably shouldn't use a movie that cost over 200m to make to gauge the interest. Probably better to bring back a movie that has already had its run to gauge that interest. And if people truly do seem unwilling to go back to theaters pull all your overly expensive movies out of 2020 entirely.

 

 

Edited by RockyMountain
  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, RockyMountain said:

Probably better to bring back a movie that has already had its run to gauge that interest

What? That's like saying take last week's left overs out of the rubbish bin to see if you're hungry.

For the record, I don't think Tenet is the right movie, but it HAS to be a movie with a high profile and interest. WW84 would be the best, IMO, but if they want to avoid summer, then do a huge campaign around AQP2 at least. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, reddevil19 said:

but it HAS to be a movie with a high profile and interest. WW84 would be the best,

I would argue for a purge movie or your AQP2 example, those horror have a possible perfect mix of low budget but giant awareness demand, that could still do well and be saved on VOD if the release fail.

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Barnack said:

I would argue for a purge movie or your AQP2 example, those horror have a possible perfect mix of low budget but giant awareness demand, that could still do well and be saved on VOD if the release fail.

The Purge has been showing weaker interest and the current climate is probably not conducive to it being a grand reopening. AQP2, ya, definitely would be a good option in terms of it being a lower risk than a superhero movie (on the other hand, a superhero movie is more likely to draw more people in, so it has a higher ceiling even in these conditions, but obviously the risk is much higher).

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, reddevil19 said:

The Purge has been showing weaker interest and the current climate is probably not conducive to it being a grand reopening.

It is probably much better to not be a grand opening (I would do it wednesday afternoon) security wise.

Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, reddevil19 said:

What? That's like saying take last week's left overs out of the rubbish bin to see if you're hungry.

For the record, I don't think Tenet is the right movie, but it HAS to be a movie with a high profile and interest. WW84 would be the best, IMO, but if they want to avoid summer, then do a huge campaign around AQP2 at least. 

Horror movies would never be a good idea as horror is a bit of a niche genre anyways. You have just shown the problems with the movie industry these days (as we know it) may be in danger of collapsing. The only thing you seem to think are truly worthwhile to go see are the huge overly expensive movies. Movies where if you make any less than say 700-800m it is considered a box office failure. We very well may be entering an era where 700-800m WW will be the absolute best movies can hope for. The big blockbusters might need to start being made for a 100m instead of 200m.

Edited by RockyMountain
Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, RockyMountain said:

Horror movies would never be a good idea as horror is a bit of a niche genre anyways. You have just shown the problems with the movie industry these days and why it very well may be in danger of collapsing. The only thing you seem to think are truly worthwhile to go see are the huge overly expensive movies. Movies where if you make any less than say 700-800m it is considered a box office failure. We very well may be entering an era where 700-800m WW will be the absolute best movies can hope for. The big blockbusters might need to start being made for a 100m instead of 200m.

Ya, that's not gonna happen anytime soon. This has been discussed here before. The big productions will be the ones that rule theatrical releases and they will continue to be made, because theatrical IS the prime way studios make money. People will not stay away indefinitely. Even if it's Q3 2021 that we get back to 95% of pre-COVID levels, we'll still get there... And the huge blockbusters will be the ones that do it.

 

The social distancing measures currently in place probably will have long-term effects on the way movies get made - getting around lower numbers on set, more digital backgrounds, etc. But this won't necessarily cut budgets. The money will just be spent in other ways.

 

The collapse of big budget tentpoles isn't nigh. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, reddevil19 said:

and they will continue to be made, because theatrical IS the prime way studios make money.

Depend what you mean by prime.

 

http://www.annualreports.com/HostedData/AnnualReports/PDF/NASDAQ_CMCSA_2019.pdf

 

Page 47

Revenue

Universal studio in 2019, from the 6,500 millions revenues for the movie division, 1,500 came from theatrical (23%), other is a bit too big here because it include Fandango and third party distribution, it is more 27%.

 

Theatrical $ 1,469

Content licensing 3,045

Home entertainment 957

Other 1,022

Total revenue 6,493

 

In the peak dvd eras many year's studio theatrical was operating at a lost (spending more on theatrical release cost than theatrical revenues).

 

Theatrical is the prime way they have to give your movie value (toward all the future windows), distinguish and higher price new from old, prestige and so on.

 

For Liongates in 2019 (http://investors.lionsgate.com/~/media/Files/L/LionsGate-IR/annual-reports/2019-annual-report.pdf):

Within the Motion Picture segment, revenues were generated from the following:

• Theatrical, 14.7%;

• Home Entertainment, 40.4%;

• Television, 18.7%;

International, 23.3%;

and • Motion Picture-Other, 2.8%

 

Look for how much Fox sold, yes I imagine a bit was about some WW theatrical distribution infrastructure, but a lot of the money was for either non movies affaires and in movies for libraries, not for the few yet to be released in theater ones.

Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, reddevil19 said:

Ya, that's not gonna happen anytime soon. This has been discussed here before. The big productions will be the ones that rule theatrical releases and they will continue to be made, because theatrical IS the prime way studios make money. People will not stay away indefinitely. Even if it's Q3 2021 that we get back to 95% of pre-COVID levels, we'll still get there... And the huge blockbusters will be the ones that do it.

 

The social distancing measures currently in place probably will have long-term effects on the way movies get made - getting around lower numbers on set, more digital backgrounds, etc. But this won't necessarily cut budgets. The money will just be spent in other ways.

 

The collapse of big budget tentpoles isn't nigh. 

I think you are a little overly optimistic to say that the big blockbuster movies will still be able to make as much money as they did in the previous few years. And if you think that attendance reports at a theater doesn't mean anything than an accepted idea on a message board forum full of theater buffs that don't want to see their theaters end doesn't mean anything either.

Link to post
Share on other sites
Quote

“We’ve seen the market research that says the vast majority of our customers are going to come immediately back to theaters,” CEO Adam Aron said during AMC’s Tuesday first-quarter earnings call.

“To be safer and to be more profitable, we’re going to open our movie theaters right up before Tenet,” Aron said.

Texas’ third phase reopening guidelines limit AMC and other entertainment venues to 50% capacity. Aron told investors that won’t put a drag on Tenet’s opening night turnout because it plans to increase showings according to demand.

Don’t worry about seat capacity limitations, we will double or triple or quadruple the number of auditoriums that we allocated to showing Tenet,” he said.

 

https://www.dallasnews.com/business/2020/06/10/amc-to-reopen-49-theaters-in-texas-as-it-bets-big-on-christopher-nolans-tenet/

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, antovolk said:

I'm sorry but while I appreciate the business arguments, people advocating for even longer theatrical exclusivity windows and getting all up about the sanctity of the theatrical experience while we are still in the middle of a pandemic, which means there is still a risk attached to said experience, that won't be over on July 17 can fuck right off.

 

After vaccine/accessible treatment? Perhaps.

This is a huge overreaction.

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

I'm calling it now, the AMC chain is not going to survive this pandemic. Their leadership is utterly incompetent. There is absolutely no way that 75% number is accurate. It flies in the face of literally all the other polling I have seen.

Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, RockyMountain said:

https://variety.com/2020/film/asia/thousands-chinese-cinemas-could-close-permanently-1234621949/

 

If this ends up happening it will be devastating to the super hero genre. The super hero genere gets more money from China than they do from North America. 

 

Nope. China is the cherry on top. All of the successful super hero films make more than enough money elsewhere to be profitable. China could completely close itself off to Western cinema and it would have no impact on the MCU, for example.

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, doublejack said:

I'm calling it now, the AMC chain is not going to survive this pandemic. Their leadership is utterly incompetent. There is absolutely no way that 75% number is accurate. It flies in the face of literally all the other polling I have seen.

AMC

giphy.gif

  • Haha 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

“The vast majority of our customers are going to come back immediately”. Sorry, but I call bullshit on that claim. 
 

Purely anecdotally, me and my partner were avid cinema goers prior to the pandemic, we’d go once a week. But neither of us will be heading to the cinema anytime soon, and definitely not for Tenet if it sticks to that stupidly dangerous release date. I doubt I’ll be heading to a cinema until September/October at this rate, Halloween Kills will probably be the next time for me (if HK’s release date sticks and we miraculously avoid a second wave in the fall).

 

It’s going to have to be a film that you REALLY want to see if you’re literally risking potential death to see it. Overreaction or not, that’s going to be on a lot of people’s minds.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, RockyMountain said:

https://variety.com/2020/film/asia/thousands-chinese-cinemas-could-close-permanently-1234621949/

 

If this ends up happening it will be devastating to the super hero genre. The super hero genre gets more money from China than they do from North America. 

No it doesn't lol. Last time a major superhero movie grossed more in China than America was Venom and even then, American revenue was much higher than Chinese revenue.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, SnokesLegs said:

“The vast majority of our customers are going to come back immediately”. Sorry, but I call bullshit on that claim. 
 

Purely anecdotally, me and my partner were avid cinema goers prior to the pandemic, we’d go once a week. But neither of us will be heading to the cinema anytime soon, and definitely not for Tenet if it sticks to that stupidly dangerous release date. I doubt I’ll be heading to a cinema until September/October at this rate, Halloween Kills will probably be the next time for me (if HK’s release date sticks and we miraculously avoid a second wave in the fall).

 

It’s going to have to be a film that you REALLY want to see if you’re literally risking potential death to see it. Overreaction or not, that’s going to be on a lot of people’s minds.

Yeah. People keep on trying to compare the fact that they see people going out to stores and restaurants now as proof that people will be willing to go to theaters to watch a movie. People have to shop and eat food. People don't have to go to the movie theaters. 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, RockyMountain said:

Yeah. People keep on trying to compare the fact that they see people going out to stores and restaurants now as proof that people will be willing to go to theaters to watch a movie. People have to shop and eat food. People don't have to go to the movie theaters. 

Exactly, it’s not a comparable thing at all. Food shopping is a necessity, watching a film surrounded be other people who may or may not give you the disease definitely isn’t.

 

If July happens, just wait for the first Deadline report about how a screening of Tenet was abandoned after someone sneezed and people ran for the exits...

Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.




×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use and Guidelines. Feel free to read our Privacy Policy as well.