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Coronavirus Movie Theatre Reopening Thread | Release Date Changes/Production News | Theaters are dead. Long live streaming!

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I think in Europe from August they would be able to release new movies in cinemas (even without social distancing guidelines in some countries) .

 

The thing is, it's only in Europe that the conditions seem good enough for reopening. If Tenet gets released in August I would be able to watch it. 🙂 But that's not gonna happen because studios will wait for the majority of theaters worldwide to open before they release new movies. 😔

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1 hour ago, antovolk said:

I feel for them, but a studio like Disney can make more money throwing a film like Mulan on VOD for the entire world to buy or rent than showing it in selected theaters across Europe. I see no chance of movies like Black Widow, WW84, No Time to Die being released in theaters without the US & China market open for business. 

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Honestly the best compromise is just having movies release in theaters OS and then to PVOD in the US a while later.

 

Have something where Black Widow or No Time to Die open in European and Asian markets in like October or November, and then just put it on PVOD one month later. You give theaters a fighting chance and circumvent piracy, at least for a month's worth of release. Sure there's the issue of spoilers getting out or potential bad WOM spreading out, but that would have happened anyway if the movie sucked. And obviously it's not the ideal way of releasing something, but it's better than studios twiddling their thumbs and forcing European and Asian theaters to play nothing but old movies for the next few months, and everybody needs to accept that there needs to be some sort of new normal

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4 minutes ago, Eric in Boots said:

Honestly the best compromise is just having movies release in theaters OS and then to PVOD in the US a while later.

 

Have something where Black Widow or No Time to Die open in European and Asian markets in like October or November, and then just put it on PVOD one month later. You give theaters a fighting chance and circumvent piracy, at least for a month's worth of release. Sure there's the issue of spoilers getting out or potential bad WOM spreading out, but that would have happened anyway if the movie sucked. And obviously it's not the ideal way of releasing something, but it's better than studios twiddling their thumbs and forcing European and Asian theaters to play nothing but old movies for the next few months, and everybody needs to accept that there needs to be some sort of new normal

They could but they won't to avoid pissing off the chains here. Can't blame overseas for getting frustrated because it did seem like we were moving in the direction of getting our shit under control for a bit (until we didn't).

 

Fast 9 jumping back almost a whole year back in March when the fear of impending doom was kicking in is looking like the smartest decision any of the studios made in retrospect.

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25 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Fast 9 jumping back almost a whole year back in March when the fear of impending doom was kicking in is looking like the smartest decision any of the studios made in retrospect.

Yup. Everything should have just moved back a year with cinemas given bailout money for the meantime. The way things are going in the US even winter releases now look optimistic.

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10 minutes ago, Hatebox said:

Yup. Everything should have just moved back a year with cinemas given bailout money for the meantime. The way things are going in the US even winter releases now look optimistic.

I wouldn't really blame studios for wanting to show a slight bit of optimism since the general belief was that everything would be under control by the time summer came along. But a combo of many different factors assured that wasn't to be.

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Back home, a couple theaters had re-opened two weeks ago but just shuttered again due to low attendance. They were playing Focus’ titles from this year (Irresistable, Emma, The High Note) along with a few smaller indies and WOM hits from the past few years. They’re not going to re-open until new movies come out, and it’s not hard to see why when they were operating at extreme losses.

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1 hour ago, Eric in Boots said:

Honestly the best compromise is just having movies release in theaters OS and then to PVOD in the US a while later.

 

Have something where Black Widow or No Time to Die open in European and Asian markets in like October or November, and then just put it on PVOD one month later. You give theaters a fighting chance and circumvent piracy, at least for a month's worth of release. Sure there's the issue of spoilers getting out or potential bad WOM spreading out, but that would have happened anyway if the movie sucked. And obviously it's not the ideal way of releasing something, but it's better than studios twiddling their thumbs and forcing European and Asian theaters to play nothing but old movies for the next few months, and everybody needs to accept that there needs to be some sort of new normal

PVOD release in the US and a theatrical release overseas would work for SOME countries.

 

this is from a THR article that mentions how much VOD sells compared to box office in certain countries (u prolly already seen it)

 

Quote

here are still only a handful of territories where on-demand is a big enough business to make it worth it. Ampere estimates digital transactional revenues — both premium video on demand and electronic sell-through (EST) were $4.25 billion in the U.S. last year, or around 40 percent of the $10.5 billion theatrical market. There are healthy on-demand markets in countries like the U.K., Germany, Japan and South Korea — where digital transactional revenues last year were between 30 percent and 40 percent of their respective box office returns. I

 

40% of total box office revenue is in the US is prolly worth considering as studio shares from on-demand services will be higher than from theater chains (which still isn't ideal but serviceable i'd say)

 

BUT the problems starts when you look at the countries with non-existent VOD sales and high demand on piracy like

 

Quote

Take five big territories — China, India, Russia, Brazil and Mexico — together they make up around a third of global box office, but just 3.5 percent of digital transactional revenue," says Border.

 

so if we suppose those countries get the pandemic numbers under control and have their theaters open before the US (which is a big if since no one knows when china will re-open theirs) what's gonna stop people from those countries to just pirate new releases (since they'll be on VOD in the US in few weeks to a month or less) instead of going to their local theater? 

 

 

I don't disagree with your suggestion but I think studios would rather hold on their tentpoles for another year or so before they decide to take potential lower revenue.

 

another issue is what if americans get used to VOD and then just refuse to go back to theaters once the pandemic is over in 2021/2022?

 

 

 

 

 

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Fun Fact. 
 

There was a 2020 Oscar’s. 
 

 

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8 minutes ago, DeeCee said:

Fun Fact. 
 

There was a 2020 Oscar’s. 
 

 

Can't wait for the repeat of this next year with Miranda doing a Hamilton song instead. 

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12 minutes ago, DeeCee said:

Fun Fact. 
 

There was a 2020 Oscar’s. 
 

 

Thanks for that reminder. I’d forgotten just how cringeworthy it was seeing all those celebrities trying to look cool dancing in their chairs and failing miserably.

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Posted (edited)
36 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

PVOD release in the US and a theatrical release overseas would work for SOME countries.

 

this is from a THR article that mentions how much VOD sells compared to box office in certain countries (u prolly already seen it)

 

 

40% of total box office revenue is in the US is prolly worth considering as studio shares from on-demand services will be higher than from theater chains (which still isn't ideal but serviceable i'd say)

 

BUT the problems starts when you look at the countries with non-existent VOD sales and high demand on piracy like

 

 

so if we suppose those countries get the pandemic numbers under control and have their theaters open before the US (which is a big if since no one knows when china will re-open theirs) what's gonna stop people from those countries to just pirate new releases (since they'll be on VOD in the US in few weeks to a month or less) instead of going to their local theater? 

 

 

I don't disagree with your suggestion but I think studios would rather hold on their tentpoles for another year or so before they decide to take potential lower revenue.

 

another issue is what if americans get used to VOD and then just refuse to go back to theaters once the pandemic is over in 2021/2022?

 

 

 

 

 

To quote the head of the UK cinema association in that article from the last page

 

"But without sounding too apocalyptic - and now I am going to - we are talking about the survival of the sector here. Piracy and marketing spend become a bit of an irrelevance.”

 

They'drather have something rather than nothing (then again if that's the case, bite the bullet on shorter theatrical exclusivity windows)

 

Edited by antovolk
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41 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

PVOD release in the US and a theatrical release overseas would work for SOME countries.

 

this is from a THR article that mentions how much VOD sells compared to box office in certain countries (u prolly already seen it)

 

 

40% of total box office revenue is in the US is prolly worth considering as studio shares from on-demand services will be higher than from theater chains (which still isn't ideal but serviceable i'd say)

 

BUT the problems starts when you look at the countries with non-existent VOD sales and high demand on piracy like

 

 

so if we suppose those countries get the pandemic numbers under control and have their theaters open before the US (which is a big if since no one knows when china will re-open theirs) what's gonna stop people from those countries to just pirate new releases (since they'll be on VOD in the US in few weeks to a month or less) instead of going to their local theater? 

 

 

I don't disagree with your suggestion but I think studios would rather hold on their tentpoles for another year or so before they decide to take potential lower revenue.

 

another issue is what if americans get used to VOD and then just refuse to go back to theaters once the pandemic is over in 2021/2022?

 

 

 

 

 

Obviously piracy will be a problem, but the bigger problem is that OS theaters might not make it into next year. If studios really want to keep the movie theater business alive, they will have to accept people will steal their movie and hope enough people come in for decent revenue for theaters, or else lose a major sector of business.

 

And if people in the US decide VOD is the way to go in the future, and/or movie theaters do suffer in the end...well, at least they tried. In that case, say goodbye to 200M budget movies. Because for a good while, the market won't be able to sustain those kinds of movies. To all y'all who wished Marvel would go away, you got your wish.

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I firmly believe that opening a movie in working foreign markets is a lesser of two evils compared to PVoD release everywhere or only in USA.  

In a day or two after american PVoD release every movie will be available here for free download or watching online.  Losing all money overeseas and hurting theaters is much worse than losing some money in US,

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This video kind of gives you an indication of how anxious/ or unanxious people are to go to non essential forms of entertainment currently.

 

 

Adamthewoo taped his day during the reopening of Disney World. I imagine once theaters start up again we will see similar types of sparse crowds.

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6 minutes ago, RockyMountain said:

This video kind of gives you an indication of how anxious/ or unanxious people are to go to non essential forms of entertainment currently.

 

 

Adamthewoo taped his day during the reopening of Disney World. I imagine once theaters start up again we will see similar types of sparse crowds.

Tomorrow (well, today now that it's past midnight) is the official reopening. FWIW Disney World is a lot more reliant on tourism than Disneyland is, and obviously no one's really traveling right now, so whatever business they make for the rest of the year will be mainly from locals. 

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Here in the U.K. where virtually everything has opened up now, with social distancing, its starting to feel like a new normal. The thought of having to wait much longer for a big movie to come out in cinemas is just insane. 
 

I do wonder how much longer the studios can hold out. They can’t necessarily wait for the US to get to similar levels of managing this pandemic. That looks miles away.
Movies are a business at the end of the day, and the longer they wait when they’ve got such a huge percentage of their audience ready to go, the more they’re throwing money away. As well as letting their exhibitors suffer. 
 

It would sadden me no end to see, say, Tenet open overseas and not in the states for the foreseeable - but we’re kind of getting to that point now where some big decisions are going to get made. 

Cinemas need new movies. Desperately. Or the whole business set up risks collapsing. 

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Posted (edited)

After seeing a story on the new restrictions in the park, I can think a lot of customers are going to decide they take so much fun out of a visit it's not  worth it. Wearing a  mask on a really hot day at Disneyworld must cut inot the fun a lot.I 1'000 precent support masks, but think they will make alot of recreational activities not very enjoyable.

Edited by dudalb

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Posted (edited)
15 hours ago, wildphantom said:

Here in the U.K. where virtually everything has opened up now, with social distancing, its starting to feel like a new normal. The thought of having to wait much longer for a big movie to come out in cinemas is just insane.

There was a poll released a couple of days ago that said 70% of UK citizens felt 'somewhat to very' uncomfortable about returning to cinemas.

 

And that's the crux: you can't legislate back to normality. People have to innately feel like everything's fine again.

 

 

Edited by Hatebox
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Posted (edited)
33 minutes ago, Hatebox said:

There was a poll released a couple of days ago that said 70% of UK citizens felt 'somewhat to very' uncomfortable about returning to cinemas.

 

And that's the crux: you can't legislate back to normality. People have to innately feel like everything's fine again.

 

 

Anecdotally, I don’t know anybody who is desperate to go back to a cinema any time soon, including people who I used to work with IN a cinema who are scared to put themselves at risk.

 

If Tenet releases next month, there’s no way I’ll be going. The next film I see in a cinema will probably be Bond, and that’s assuming the UK manages to quell infections.

 

I say this as a person who used to have a cinema membership and would regularly go every week.

Edited by SnokesLegs

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