YourMother’s Y7 Box Office Analysis

[YM!]

Y6 at ($7,532,596,523) was unfortunately down from Y5, ($8,198,009,995) mainly due to a lackluster summer outside of Mass Effect 2 and He-Man 4 in terms of big blockbusters. Thanks to a handful of major blockbusters like Super Mario Bros, Pokemon: The Cinnabar Conspiracy, Mass Effect: Ascension, the biggest film ever Spark: A Hero’s Promise and the animated juggernaut Gateways, Y6 made some bank. Y7 should at least top Y6, and maybe Y5 as the release schedule is similarly stacked with plenty of guaranteed blockbusters, and one of the strongest CAYOM summers.

 

Click here to see a full list of currently scheduled Y7 movies.

 

The space opera genre has always been a dominant force of CAYOM - look at the successes of Spark, Voltron, and The Scavenger Wars, as well as other franchises that have began spawning like Green Lantern Corps and Mass Effect. This year has sequels to The Scavenger Wars and Green Lantern Corps as well as new entries like Numerator’s The Long Way Home and the PG-13 animated The Ends of The Universe and Horizon/Tall Tales’ Starlight. Naturally we suspect the two sequels to dominate but Long Way Home has a lot of potential to spark a new franchise. The Ends of The Universe will also be interesting to watch unfold as it attempts to jumpstart back up PG-13 animation.

 

The box office is usually very reliant on franchise fare—while only 4 of the top 10 were sequels, three of them were in the top 5. Y6 however didn’t have much in big name sequels outside of the 4. What's different this year, though, is how many of these are follow-ups to major blockbusters—for five of the 10 titles, the predecessor earned over $200 million at the domestic box office, 6 of the 10 titles, the predecessors earned over $150 million domestically.

 

Among all of these sequels, the Y7 movie most-likely-to-succeed are in fact two sequels: The Scavenger Wars Part 3 and Should You Imagine. Both of the film are coming off of Best Picture nominated predecessors, that earned over $350 million domestically and $1.05 billion worldwide. What make it’s most interesting are the two are only two weeks apart from each other in June. This will likely cause our summer slate to be the biggest in years which was much needed after Y6, as only one film earned over $200 million domestically and that was Mass Effect: Ascension.

 

Not far behind in the "guaranteed blockbuster" category is Green Lantern Corps: Home, while the first received mixed-positive reviews, audiences’ otherwise loved it as the film earned over $290 million domestically and $1 billion worldwide. Early reviews call Home an improvement and with the mid December slot that has birthed numerous sci-fi sequel juggernauts like Voltron: Rise of Lotor, Spark: Beyond The Sky and The Scavenger Wars Part 2, one can expect GLCH to make a nice penny.

 

Other big sequels include Scooby-Doo: Cult of The Creeper, which has also recieved improved reviews, adds a more musical element and benefits from being the only major PG-13 film alongside The Long Way Home this summer. Sir Thymes Time 2 will also play a mean second fiddle to Should You Imagine for family fare business.

 

 

Of course, the industry can't thrive exclusively on established franchises—it also needs to try and create a few as well. Some of the biggest entries come from Numerator’s The Long Way Home (8/11), Hunt Productions’ Dual Consequences (5/5), and Lager Pictures teaming up with longtime partner director Matt  Reeves for Attack on Titan (7/28). While not a franchise Tower of Babylon (11/22) has the potential to be a major moneymaker due to the visuals.

 

Another major category of prospective moneymakers is the musical genre. Blankments has 2 musicals (3 if we count the EGK production of Scooby 2): the Broadway hit: Dear Evan Hansen (6/23) which is opened in the perfect spot to be excellent counterprogramming in a heated summer, and the animated Birdwing (11/22) slotted at Thanksgiving will likely be on top of the roost. New Journey’s Banjo Kazooie (9/15) can also drum up some business as video game movies are quite the moneymakers in CAYOM.

 

 

Animation is also one of the biggest contributors to overall box office each year: in Y6, for example, new animated movies took in around $1.34 billion in domestic revenue. Endless Animation took a lion’s share thanks to Mario and Gateways owning 65% of that share. There are currently 11 major ($100M+ aiming DOM) animated movies on the schedule for Y7, which is almost triple the amount of Y6 (4 titles) and double than Y5 (6 titles). 

 

The biggest title should be Should You Imagine? from Endless Animation, though there are a handful of other appealing offerings. Shining Star Animation delivers with the musical fantasy Birdwing and the sequel Sir Thymes Time 2, both of which should be big earners, as well as Cookie Pictures Animation’s Hilda and The Midnight Giant which also should do well. Endless Animation also has Toons V Reality ready for Y7. Tall Tales Animation’s Starlight and Numerator’s The Ends of The Universe should satisfy the space opera fans as New Journey Animation prepares to flaunt of Banjo-Kazooie and Cannastop Productions unleashes Lena and the Featherweights.

 

The likely biggest films of the month are below as well as reasoning from our friend Bill Eon Bucks:

 

January:

 

Hypercomptency 

 

Lana does it again this time delivering a new sci-fi epic. So far with a 77 on Metacritic, the film seems likely to dominate the month due to lackluster competition and a weak December outside of the one-two punch from Gateways and The Most Wanted Man In Great Britain. However, is the pitch too obscure for the general audiences and January isn’t the most lucrative spot.

 

Estimated Range: $100-$200 million domestically 

 

February

 

Starlight

 

Coming off of Y5’s Splatoon, Starlight is Tall Tales Animation’s second film and first original. The retro look and space opera flare should attract the older audiences and families need something other than Gateways to satisfy them and with a 70 on Metacritic is good to start with. The only problem is Tall Tales is still relatively new to the field and likely won’t have the same strength as Medusa did in Y5.

 

Estimated Range: $140-$205 million domestically

 

March

 

Pillars of Eternity: An Ancient Legacy

 

Pillars has become the staple fantasy franchise of CAYOM and with the strong reviews it has received, it should dominate the competition in March. While we don’t see a bump on the scale of Odyssey 2 to 3, it should do nicely.

 

Estimated Range: $330-$400 million domestically.

 

April

 

Hilda and The Midnight Giant

 

Cookies Pictures Animation brings it’s third film, four years after the former animation record The Number One Dime. With strong reviews (80 on MC so far) and brand name, Hilda will rule Easter. Only question is will the more British centered humor translate well with the domestic audience as well as the lengthy runtime

 

Estimated Range: $200-$275 million domestically 

 

May

 

Sir Thymes Time 2

 

Shining Star Animation will drop it’s first sequel to the beloved Sir Thymes. Time 2 is in an extremely good slot but reviews have been somewhat mixed side of positive recently. That said I don’t think it matters for it but I don’t expect a huge jump.

 

Estimated Range: $225-$280 million domestically 

 

June

 

The Scavenger Wars Part III and Should You Imagine?

 

The Scavenger Wars Part III is expected to be the biggest film of the year with ease due to beloved predecessors as well as a beneficial calendar and already a Best Picture frontrunner. However, 3 doesn’t have the luxury of 2’s coveted December spot and we don’t know how much this one will jump.

 

While SYI doesn’t have the same reviews as the first one, it’s still Endless Animation’s first film since the record breaking Gateways and is coming off of a beloved predecessor. This should be able to be the biggest family film of Y7 and could be the biggest of the year.

 

TSW3 Estimated Range: $400-$500 million domestically 

 

SYI Estimated Range: $345-$500 million domestically.

 

July

 

Scooby Doo: Cult of The Creeper and Attack on Titan

 

Another hard choice for July, on the left we have Scooby Doo: Cult of The Creeper which has added a musical element, and has stronger reviews. It’s also the one of the only main PG-13 blockbusters. The only question remains if the hook it had for the first being PG-13 help this time around especially with the mixed-positive reviews the first had.

 

On the right we have Lager Pictures and Matt Reeves adaptation of Attack on Titan. This anime is very popular and with the benefit of the Odyssey franchise, this could be a major hit of the year. The only question is will audiences be too weirded out by the titans and the hard R rating.

 

2by Estimated Range: $150-$275 million domestically 

 

AoT Estimated Range: $175-$275 million domestically 

 

August

 

The Long Way Home

 

Numerator adds to the space opera race with Long Way Home. Not much other to say is that people love the Mass Effect franchise as well as the fact this is the one of the only main PG-13 films. This should be a big hit.

 

Estimated Range: $250-$325 million domestically 

 

September

 

Dawn of The Last Six

 

Estimated range: $135-$200 million domestically 

 

October

 

Megalo Box

 

This anime adaptation has been gaining quite a bit of steam on CAYOM. Megalo Box should benefit from this and its hook seems pretty appealing to the GA. While the ceiling isn’t as high it’ll make a pretty penny.

 

Estimated range: $100-$150 million domestically 

 

November 

 

Birdwing and Tower of Babylon

 

The first big animated musical in CAYOM was Medusa from Endless Animation at $270 million domestically. While Shining Star doesn’t have the same pull as Endless Animation, Birdwing has way better reviews than Medusa as well as a lot of buzz. Don’t doubt the swan songs.

 

With an eye popping $300 million budget and the power of Villenueve, Babylon could be a major hit due to its eye popping visuals but the key thing to look for is reviews and how the GA responds to it.

 

Birdwing Estimated Range: $250-$400 million domestically 

Babylon Estimated Range: $100-$400 million domestically 

 

 

December

 

Green Lantern Corps: Home

 

While this was an obvious choice, this has a lot of pros: it’s coming off a $1 billion grossing predecessor, reviews seem to be on an upswing, no completion aside from Temple Run and no big action films since Dawn of The Last Six, this should be a huge hit. I would be shocked if it decreased due to the slot.

 

Estimated Range: $300 - $400 million domestically 

Edited May 3, 2020 by YourMother the Edgelord