When will any non-Disney film cross $200mn in pure FSS? Whether China can do it earlier?

[charlie Jatinder]

Since there is nothing really to do, so here's something. Was wondering that when can we see $200 million in pure FSS by a movie. Was going to go with non-Avengers but then I had another side to show, that I will tell, before that, have a look at the Top pure FSS weekend grossers in North America.

Spoiler

Rank	Title	Studio	Gross
1	Avengers: Endgame	Dis	297,115,007
2	Avengers: Infinity War	Dis	218,698,183
3	Star Wars: The Force Awakens	Dis	194,466,675
4	Jurassic World	Uni	190,306,270
5	The Avengers	Dis	188,738,708
6	Black Panther	Dis	176,803,951
7	Star Wars: The Last Jedi	Dis	175,009,584
8	The Lion King	Dis	168,770,759
9	Incredibles 2	Dis	164,187,905
10	Avengers: Age of Ultron	Dis	163,671,109
11	Iron Man 3	Dis	158,544,585
12	Beauty and the Beast	Dis	158,450,616
13	Captain America: Civil War	Dis	154,139,142
14	Spider-Man 3	Sony	141,116,516
15	The Dark Knight	WB	139,911,483
16	Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice	WB	138,307,347
17	Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker	Dis	137,383,864
18	The Hunger Games: Catching Fire	Lion.	133,074,286
19	The Hunger Games	Lion.	132,800,747
20	Captain Marvel	Dis	132,733,423
21	Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom	Uni	132,724,610
22	Furious 7	Uni	131,363,560
23	The Dark Knight Rises	WB	130,247,295
24	Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2	Dis	129,510,104
25	Rogue One: A Star Wars Story	Dis	126,081,681
26	Harry Potter & the Deathly Hallows 2	WB	125,689,427

So the point I was going to make was the fact that Spider-man 3 is still the best Hollywood has done so far in a pure FSS barring Jurassic World. There are 5 Disney films over $165mn in pure FSS with one going as high as $195mn so making it non-Disney just give it more rarity. In fact the second biggest non-Disney opening weekend, Harry Potter 8 barely make it over $125mn.

If North America seems like not likely to be there, what do you think of China. The current pure FSS non-Avengers record is with Monster Hunt 2 $182mn, Fate of the Furious at $177mn (excluding Thursday and Ticket Booking Charges which China report in Gross officially) and Wandering Earth $169mn.

 

So what say, which non-Disney film and whether in China or North America.

[Legion Again]

Projected order of non-Disney single territory 200M FSS:  

China local

China HW (F&F)

China local

China local  

US HW (Batman 2)

Edited June 8, 2020 by Arendelle Legion

[charlie Jatinder]

20 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

Projected order of non-Disney single territory 200M FSS:  

China local

China HW (F&F)

China local

China local  

US HW (Batman 2)

S-M 3 will be non-Disney but then Ow of this trilogy are basically at Raimi trilogy weekends.

[Legion Again]

4 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

S-M 3 will be non-Disney but then Ow of this trilogy are basically at Raimi trilogy weekends.

FFH on Fri would have been about 120 FSS I think (~18 preview). 
 

So SM3 no shot imo, maybe SM4 if they do that.    
 

But I would feel weird counting a Disney co-production anyway.

[charlie Jatinder]

20 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

FFH on Fri would have been about 120 FSS I think (~18 preview). 

SMH had 2.85x legs, FFH could have had 2.7x I guess. Taking full run as $400mn, where it was heading before Sony fiasco, that will be 148-150.

[charlie Jatinder]

Avatar 2 in China would have been a good pick but then its Disney now.

 

I think F9 will have hard time reaching F8, that leaves us with local films.

[charlie Jatinder]

Detective Chinatown 3 is releasing on a pure Friday.

WOM be good, this will get 15M admits on Day One, that will be 600-675M ($92-106M) OD depending on ticket prices and exchange rates. Weekend may be 40-41M admits, giving it 1600-1850M ($245-295M).

So China local it is.

Edited January 24, 2021 by jatvision

[Legion Again]

On 6/8/2020 at 1:17 PM, WandaLegion said:

Projected order of non-Disney single territory 200M FSS:  

China local

China HW (F&F)

China local

China local  

US HW (Batman 2)

1 down, 4 to go?

[charlie Jatinder]

On 1/24/2021 at 9:12 AM, Lokis Legion said:

1 down, 4 to go?

1 done. like way over done.

2nd miss.

Edited June 24, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[Legion Again]

16 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

1 done. like way over done.

2nd miss.

Parentheses are just optional. 2nd can still be salvaged by NWH maaaaaaaybe. Or (ugh) Venom.

[Legion Again]

Wonder how many China locals before the 2nd domestic. Probably like a dozen or something.