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Safeno Rdz

Next Billion-Dollar Movie?

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We know for sure no 2020 movie will get to a billion dollars WW, as cinemas won't be open yet at it's full capacity, so do you think by early 2021 we will be getting billion dollar films again? Which will be the first post-COVID film to do so?

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6 hours ago, Safeno Rdz said:

We know for sure no 2020 movie will get to a billion dollars WW, as cinemas won't be open yet at it's full capacity, so do you think by early 2021 we will be getting billion dollar films again? Which will be the first post-COVID film to do so?

Honestly, the first good, crowd-pleasing blockbuster will break out big imo

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Gut feeling? Eternals. I feel like that movie, though an entirely new set of characters and all that, is going to be mega popular. Think GotG breakout but bigger.

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I would love it if it were Dune, WW84, had a strong chance pre-pandemic. probably not anymore.. realistically maybe Eternals, could be something really sad like F9 or Minions 2 though. thanks to all this reshuffling I just realized most of my most anticipated movies won't come out until 2022 now. (Matrix 4, DS 2, Thor 4, )

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Hard to say without any prevision to get back to normalcy. For the moment the biggest film WW in 2020 is a Chinese film, with another one heading right now to about 450 million, so we will have the top 2 with Chinese films. The second covid wave is increasing so I do not think we can see a HLW film winning the year. Next year? who knows.

 

We already know that films like WW84, Black Widow, F9, or even The Eternals have that potential. But the real question is when we will be back to normalcy. While we are not in better conditions against covid, a Chinese film has more options than any HLW film. For example, there is a film, Detective Chinatown 3, scheduled next February (it should have been released during last CNY), which has more buzz than Endgame. Will it reach $1b? probably no, but never say never with Chinese box office.

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On 10/13/2020 at 9:41 AM, jimisawesome said:

In the worst case JW3 will hit a billion even if that is a couple years away.  The more interesting question is if there will be another 500 million domestic movie and 200 million dollar domestic opener.  For that matter 400 million and 150.  

I think 150-200M domestic openers is the bigger question. I have no doubt that someday another movie will capture the cultural zeitgeist and have another huge amazing leggy run. But I genuinely am curious as to whether films are going to be as front-loaded going forward. Even when numbers go back to "normal" (whenever that is), I wonder whether anxieties around crowds and large gatherings will allow people to flood theatres on opening weekends of huge releases, or whether we will start to see more leggy runs in the future with smaller openings but higher multipliers. 

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