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charlie Jatinder

PAPA NOLAN's TENƎꓕ International Thread. Weekend 5 $16.2mn / $243.7mn Total

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So $300 million overseas is dead, or we can't be sure yet?

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2 hours ago, Juby said:

So $300 million overseas is dead, or we can't be sure yet?

It is possible. Will depend on Japan and Latin America and need to continue these holds in Europe.

 

@Carlangonz @Purple Minion what can we expect in Mexico? Nolan don't seem hot in Latin America, but can really use $25-30mn.

Edited by charlie Jatinder

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It's going to benefit from a 5-day OW, opens on the 16th which is National Independence Day. From what I can see, OK number of screens with high ticket prices. Unless things go really wrong, it should be the first $1M+ OW after the re-opening.

Edited by Purple Minion
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TENET Third Weekend

 

China: $10.37mn (-66%) / $51.2mn

 

UK: $1.58mn / $16.35mn

France: $1.75mn (-38%) / $13.2mn

Germany: $1.71mn (-39%) / $11.2mn

South Korea: $1.33mn (-26.5%) / $10.3mn

Taiwan: $1.3mn (-33%) / $8.6mn

 

Spain: $0.7mn (-33%) / $6.36mn

Australia: $0.72mn (-40%) / $5.6mn

Russia: $2.2mn (-17.7%) / $5.85mn

Italy: $0.77mn (-34%) / $5.79mn

Netherlands: $0.91mn (-32%) / $5.37mn

 

Saudi Arabia: $0.69mn (-35%) / $4.2mn

Denmark: $0.42mn (-32%) / $2.71mn

Switzerland: $0.29mn (-40%) / $2.23mn

Sweden: $0.38mn / $2.5mn

Norway: $0.28mn (-35%) / $1.93mn

Hong Kong: $1.94mn (NEW)

UAE: $0.2mn (-46%) / $1.73mn

Thailand: $0.16mn / $1.64mn

Finland: $0.23mn (-26%) / $1.57mn

Austria: $0.15mn (-49%) / $1.55mn

Vietnam: $0.09mn (-57%) / $1.4mn

Ukraine: $0.19mn (-40%) / $1.3mn

Poland: $0.12mn (-40%) / $1.21mn

Singapore: $0.2mn (-35%) / $1.27mn

New Zealand: $0.24mn (-32%) / $1.23mn

Malaysia: $0.14mn / $1.06mn

 

 

Rest of World: 

 

Europe: $0.85mn / $7.2mn

Middle East: $0.34mn / $1.07mn

Rest: $0.05mn / $0.18mn

 

Total: $30.3mn / $177.75mn

 

Official number $178mn

Edited by charlie Jatinder
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38 minutes ago, Purple Minion said:

Unless things go really wrong, it should be the first $1M+ OW after the re-opening.

Yup. Been rounding around $1M-$1.1M for the 5-Day

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Possible closing numbers

 

China: 65

Middle East: 15

Korea: 14

Taiwan: 13

Russia: 12

Hong Kong: 7

South East Asia: 7

 

Australia: 9

New Zealand: 2

 

UK: 24

France: 18

Germany: 18

Nordic: 13

Spain: 8.5

Netherlands: 8

Italy: 7.5

Rest: 18

 

Around 260 ish

 

Markets left

 

Japan: possibly 15-20

India: possibly 5-8

Latin America: possibly 10-15

Rest: possibly 5

 

 

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So the bad scenario is around $290 million OS. Still nice all things consider. The good scenario is even $315-320 million - very good for a first major movie released during pandemic.

 

It seems the fate of the film completely depends on US theaters. With barely $30 mln after almost 2 weeks, this movie has no profit. Warner must keep it in cinemas as long as possible and push it over $100 million no matter what, even if the California and NY theaters opens as late as in December, and even if they decide to not release Tenet on UHD/Blu-ray/DVD for a whole year.

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I think it will be better if they go for digital release soon and get those home media & PVOD money in USA.

 

If this make $25mn in PVOD, that will be really great.

Edited by charlie Jatinder

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3 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I think it will be better if they go for digital release soon and get those home media & PVOD money in USA.

 

If this make $25mn in PVOD, that will be really great.

Nolan: I will never make cinema for WB

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It is weird to see Tenet has been posting good weekend hold but their total still look low in comparison to their opening weekend number especially in france and UK.

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2 hours ago, Borobudur said:

It is weird to see Tenet has been posting good weekend hold but their total still look low in comparison to their opening weekend number especially in france and UK.

Well the movie can have good weekend holds but not do that good during weekdays. Perhaps that's why you think the total should be higher by looking at weekend holds.

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1 minute ago, The Gotham Bank said:

Well the movie can have good weekend holds but not do that good during weekdays. Perhaps that's why you think the total should be higher by looking at weekend holds.

Naah, total are perfectly fine and in sync with the drops overall.

 

Other thing which may make drops look small is staggered release. This week there were $5.3mn worth new markets. Previous week there were $2.2mn. Before that there was China and Russia opening.

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TENET Fourth Weekend

 

China: $5.62mn (-46%) / $60.9mn

 

UK: $1.02mn (-35.4%) / $18.2mn

France: $1.5mn (-14%) / $16mn

Germany: $1.2mn (-30%) / $12.9mn

South Korea: $1mn (-24%) / $11.9mn

 

Taiwan: $0.8mn (-40%) / $9.9mn

Russia: $1.55mn (-28%) / $8.1mn

Spain: $0.56mn (-19%) / $7.3mn

Italy: $0.54mn (-30%) / $6.6mn

Australia: $0.61mn (-16%) / $6.4mn

Netherlands: $0.61mn (-33%) / $6.2mn

 

Saudi Arabia: $0.38mn (-46%) / $4.8mn

Japan: $4.4mn (NEW)

Hong Kong: $1.5mn (-22%) / $4.15mn

Denmark: $0.28mn / $3.2mn

Sweden: $0.24mn / $2.9mn

Switzerland: $0.28mn (-7%) / $2.6mn

Norway: $0.18mn (-37%) / $2.23mn

UAE: $0.13mn (-33%) / $1.93mn

Finland: $0.15mn (-37%) / $1.83mn

Austria: $0.1mn / $1.73mn

Belgium: $0.15 / $1.72mn 

Thailand: $0.11mn / $1.65mn (Actually $2.06mn)

Ukraine: $0.13mn (-32%) / $1.51mn

Singapore: $0.15mn / $1.5mn

Vietnam: $0.04mn (-57%) / $1.5mn

New Zealand: $0.18mn (-15%) / $1.49mn

Poland: $0.09mn (-33%) / $1.3mn

Malaysia: $0.1mn / $1.2mn

 

Mexico: $0.85mn (NEW)

 

 

Rest of World: 

 

Europe: $0.4mn / $6.3mn

Middle East: $0.25mn / $1.42mn

Rest: $0.06mn / $0.27mn

 

Total: $25mn / $215mn

Edited by charlie Jatinder
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Closing Projections

 

China: 67 (+2)

Japan: 25 (+7)

Korea: 16 (+3)

Middle East: 15

Russia: 13 (+1)

Taiwan: 12.5 (-0.5)

Hong Kong: 8.5 (+1.5)

South East Asia: 7

ANZ: 13 (+2)

 

UK: 25 (+1)

France: 23 (+5)

Germany: 21 (+3)

Nordic: 14 (+1)

Spain: 9 (+1)

Netherlands: 9 (+1)

Italy: 9 (+1.5)

Rest: 20 (+2)

 

Mexico: 3 

 

Markets left

 

India: possibly 5-8

Remaining Latin America: possibly 5-7

Rest: possibly 5-7

 

$325-332mn Approx. 

Edited by charlie Jatinder
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I know some would disagree but I do not think this was going to be some huge money maker anyway. $320m overseas is on the low end of what I would have guessed was a realistic projection. 

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