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Eric Karga

TENET Weekend Thread | 20.2M opening with previews and Canada | RIP Movies 1888-2020

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I can’t see how they don’t delay WW84 now, they’ll need all the screens they can for Tenet to do ok at best. 

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11 minutes ago, SnokesLegs said:

And Wonder Woman 1984 is delayed to Thanksgiving/Christmas in 3, 2, 1...

 

WW84 will no doubt move to Dune's spot in December.

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This will need Green Book kind of run to make it less ugly.

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The bigger issue is that Tenet's hype has died down now and CA/NY grosses will be sub-optimal as a result when it finally releases there.

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Truthfully feel this would have barely hit $50m opening weekend under normal summer conditions anyway. The marketing has been downright awful - both quality and quantity. Nolan made a movie so complex that it basically could not be advertised. 

 

 We'll see how legs are. 

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1 minute ago, excel1 said:

 

WW84 will no doubt move to Dune's spot in December.

For now. Then, they'll finally move it to next year. And next year is not gonna be back to normal either. So many lost opportunities. No movie until 2022 will match its full potential

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international weekend number minus china
first weekend 53m 
second weekend 28.1 (-47%)

 

based on first weekend 53m news and this week's breakdown.

(78.3 global - 30m china - 20.2m NA)

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1 minute ago, grim22 said:

The bigger issue is that Tenet's hype has died down now and CA/NY grosses will be sub-optimal as a result when it finally releases there.

it said Tenet opened in 2815 theaters which would about 70% of the usual theater count so if all was open it could had done closer to 30M which is still isn't as good as Europe comparatively. although I think Canada is mostly open everywhere no? not sure how much they factor in theaters count

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I think it's time we accept the facts that unless a movie is PVOD, there's no benefit for any studio to release films in 2020.

 

This would have easily been a 100+ gross pre CO-VID but things won't be normal till even late 2021. Studios are going to have to make some tough choices.

 

WW1984 cannot come out  now, not with these numbers.

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For the record, I don't think Tenet looked all that appealing. I felt the marketing did little to clear up confusion about what the film was about, and that WB was trying to sell it based on Nolan's name alone. Regardless of the pandemic, I think it would've been the weakest opening in 15 years for a Nolan tentpole.

 

 

Nevertheless. The fact that this is going to be Nolan's first film since The Prestige to not even clear $100M domestic....that is a massive, massive blow that cannot be spinned any other way. Opening a movie during these COVID times is a risk no matter what - you're gonna lose money no matter how many precautions and no matter what movie you have in hands. But this shows just how big a risk it actually is. No studio will be willing to launch their prime blockbusters and risk them earning less than Sonic The Hedgehog domestically. Nolan took a bullet to show that the marketplace is far from ready to get back to business as usual.

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Just now, excel1 said:

Truthfully feel this would have barely hit $50m opening weekend under normal summer conditions anyway. The marketing has been downright awful - both quality and quantity. Nolan made a movie so complex that it basically could not be advertised. 

 

 We'll see how legs are. 

I don't feel like this would've been too complex to advertise properly. If anything there's perhaps an argument that the marketing's been a bit too purposely vague.

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Interstellar and Dunkirk had more going for them and those opened in the $45-50M range (and had WOM not as divisive as this seems to be) so maybe this would've been one of the underperformers of the summer had it gone as planned regardless. Good chance In the Heights would've made more and become WB's #2 of the summer behind Wonder Woman.

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6 minutes ago, Truckasaurus said:

For the record, I don't think Tenet looked all that appealing. I felt the marketing did little to clear up confusion about what the film was about, and that WB was trying to sell it based on Nolan's name alone. Regardless of the pandemic, I think it would've been the weakest opening in 15 years for a Nolan tentpole.

 

 

Nevertheless. The fact that this is going to be Nolan's first film since The Prestige to not even clear $100M domestic....that is a massive, massive blow that cannot be spinned any other way. Opening a movie during these COVID times is a risk no matter what - you're gonna lose money no matter how many precautions and no matter what movie you have in hands. But this shows just how big a risk it actually is. No studio will be willing to launch their prime blockbusters and risk them earning less than Sonic The Hedgehog domestically. Nolan took a bullet to show that the marketplace is far from ready to get back to business as usual.

 

I’m going with a theory that they knew it was not going to be a great box office performance even in normal times. So they released it during the pandemic to hide behind the obvious issues related to movie theaters right now. 

 

Meanwhile, it will be interesting to see what happens to budgets moving forward. If it’s not a franchise film, studios might want to really cut down on their spending. 

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13 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

it said Tenet opened in 2815 theaters which would about 70% of the usual theater count so if all was open it could had done closer to 30M which is still isn't as good as Europe comparatively. although I think Canada is mostly open everywhere no? not sure how much they factor in theaters count

You can't just account for # of theatres/percentage, but also have to consider the location of those theatres. 

Not all theatres bring in remotely the same PTA. 
 

Those other 30% of theatres where it didn't open are in huge markets like NY/LA/San Fran, etc.

The large city theatres also have a higher ticket price (as much as $20-25 per ticket in NY), which also increases those theatres PTAs. 
They probably would have accounted for more than 30% of total gross.

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2 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

I’m going with a theory that they knew it was not going to be a great box office performance even in normal times. So they released it during the pandemic to hide behind the obvious issues related to movie theaters right now. 

 

Meanwhile, it will be interesting to see what happens to budgets moving forward. If it’s not a franchise film, studios might want to really cut down on their spending. 


I thought the TENET whisper buzz was that Nolan had done it again and this was looking to be a big crowd-pleaser. But then again, I haven’t been following the buzz for it that carefully.

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The theory that this wasn't going to perform well in normal times is not a good one. As @MrPink said, it's been doing well in most overseas countries so far (on-par with or surpassing Dunkirk in almost all of them which is great espescially considering most of them aren't back to normal). It's clearly being affected by COVID-19 in the US.

Edited by lorddemaxus
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2 minutes ago, Plain Old Tele said:


I thought the TENET whisper buzz was that Nolan had done it again and this was looking to be a big crowd-pleaser. But then again, I haven’t been following the buzz for it that carefully.

 

Clearly that was propaganda

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Even if Warner knew there were problems with the film, surely they would have made a decent bit more than these COVID times (let's say hypothetically, maybe 425-450m WW at least). Money > embarrassment to the corporations.

Edited by MrPink

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i did say a few months ago that even in normal times i think Tenet would've been nolan's lowest grosser in a while. "Aha, but what if bullets went backwards?!?!" isn't as good a hook as the dream stuff.

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