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Eric Karga

TENET Weekend Thread | 20.2M opening with previews and Canada | RIP Movies 1888-2020

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Blocking out all of the noise and bullshit, here is the deal:

 

Someone had to do it. The first "big" movie to come out was always going to be a guinea pig and likely struggle. The lockdowns are nearly 6 months in at this point - everyone is used to theaters being closed and as has been noted, 2/3rd of the country did not know their theater was opened or that this was coming out. Part of the blame likes with WB for a terrible marketing campaign though on the other hand, very well may have been simply hedging their bets. Interestingly enough, even if the word spreads these next few days with "OMG TENET FLOPPED!" that actually may help it because by far the most common reaction will be "OMG THEATERS ARE OPEN!?!?"

 

Regardless, this is just step 1, it had to happen and initial struggles were inevitable. No matter what, WB deserve kudos for actually having the balls to take the plunge and start it up. Things will only improve from here, especially with rumors of a vaccine coming within the next 2 months. While I would say it looks to be extremely foolish to release Wonder Woman 1984 in just a few weeks, it wouldn't surprise me if theaters are really ready to roll come Thanksgiving with Bond and are fairly normalized by December - assuming a vaccine. 

 

Let's just hope for:

-Decent Tenet holds from here on out

-Continued "decline" in virus spread

-Continued development of effective vaccines

 

And theaters will really be able to stretch their legs soon. My guess is Bond will be the first movie to do any real money domestically & globally. Wonder Woman 1984 in mid December could be primed for a serious explosion, though. 

Edited by excel1
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7 minutes ago, Jamiem said:

 

Looks like Antenna Data has some info, probably the best source we can get outside of Disney themselves. Much better than Sensor Tower, App Annie and Trending data. 

 

Their numbers will just be guesstimates.

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1 minute ago, Hangman said:

 

Their numbers will just be guesstimates.

They get transactional data so they can see the complete data set, it’s how they can get churn data that has been used by the likes of Bloomberg. 

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42 minutes ago, Eric #RIPChadwick said:

Nielsen just recently began tallying views, albeit minutes watched, for Netflix and Amazon shows. Obviously their foray is in TV, but I would think there can be a third-party source that can look at movie or original viewership if there was interest, right?

7park data do track some disney+ activity based on their panel. just share number tho.

 

https://www.7parkdata.com/

 

https://www.fiercevideo.com/video/hamilton-took-up-87-time-spent-disney-early-july

https://variety.com/vip/disney-hamilton-audience-nearly-3x-bigger-than-any-netflix-program-in-july-1234729439/

 

but this and nielsen doesn't track view from laptop and mobile phone. only tacks via smart tv connection.

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Does that $20.2 million include what they’re estimating for Monday as well? 

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10 minutes ago, wildphantom said:

Does that $20.2 million include what they’re estimating for Monday as well? 

It does.

 

Given that drive-ins are showing it in areas where indoor theaters are also open, it would be interesting to see what the breakdown of what the biggest locations were, especially when drive-ins were the biggest chains for Unhinged few weeks ago. Might be seeing it at one close by tomorrow night. Want to see it on a big screen but this is the only way of watching it in a stress-free environment.

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1 minute ago, filmlover said:

It does.

 

Given that drive-ins are showing it in areas where indoor theaters are also open, it would be interesting to see what the breakdown of what the biggest locations were, especially when drive-ins were the biggest chains for Unhinged few weeks ago. Might be seeing it at one close by tomorrow night. Want to see it on a big screen but this is the only way of watching it in a stress-free environment.


hope you get to see it! 

 

The talk could change in a week if the numbers stay relatively flat. Who knows. 
 

Lots of good discourse though. Everybody just trying to process and find answers we haven’t got. 

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6 hours ago, AJG said:

Now that’s out of the way what other movies are coming out free online onto VOD?
 

Evil Smile GIF by memecandy

 

I WANT THAT DUNE MOVIE.

If it's a 20$ rent I'd cave for that...probably.

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The only thing I've heard about Mulan from everyone I know is  "$30?!  I already PAY for Disney+!!"   and I think they have a point.  I think $30 when you are already paying for the service is steep even if it is for families.. you only keep it if you have the service so it's cheaper to just buy a 4K Blu Ray and own it forever. 

 

But with all that said if the numbers are really good then we will find out soon.  I'm not sure what anyone does if the numbers are ehh.  If you can't make big money on VOD and you can't make big money in the theaters then what do you do? 

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10 minutes ago, Johnny Tran said:

If you can't make big money on VOD and you can't make big money in the theaters then what do you do? 

Don’t make big money.

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I wonder how BILL AND TED is doing. I know the data seemed decently good, but it’s kinda wild that it might be the overall “winner” here. (Obviously MULAN and TENET will make way more money but they also cost way, way more.)

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Wow, we got some numbers?   After Legacy Titles and Drive In's ruled the box office the last 6 months, we are back to numbers.  20 OW?  Even with NY and LA would it have been that much better?  I wonder.  Oversees numbers are decent but I don't know about legs and repeat viewings in this climate.  Look, the reality is box office in the US probably won't be healthy this coming year.   We've had a 6 month gap of people basically not going to the movies.  This is why I felt Hollywood needed to let 2020 pretty much go and look to 2021 to regroup.   Now as for the whole "Streaming V Theatrical" drama.   

 

There are plenty of people who love going to the Theater and wanted to see "Tenet" but declined due to circumstances.  Looking at the numbers for "Unhinged and New Mutants" makes me feel they need to hit streaming before the year is over (Though I'm happy New Mutants finally saw the light of day).   I commend Nolan and WB for trying to keep Theaters going with new content but this health Crisis is bigger than Theaters.  Until we get  a hold of this thing, a lot of businesses are going to continue suffer. We may not see a Billion Dollar grosser for a long time.   For the record though those US numbers aren't hot, "Tenet" didn't "Under-perform" we are in uncharted waters right now.   

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I don't see it. 

21 minutes ago, Eric #RIPChadwick said:

 

 

I don't see it. People seriously exaggerated Tenets prospects even pre-pandemic. The marketing was terrible. They have started the habit of people returning to theater. Vaccine is on the way. More anticipated films will rapidly normalize things soon enough. 

 

Move WW84 to mid December and I can see $75m+ opening weekend and $450m total when all is said and done. Things will try be ready by then.

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We do all realize that there will be a movie, at some point, that dramatically over performs expectations at the theater as a result of the incoming correction. TENET won't be it but would guess it will be one of BOND or WW84 should it mover to December.

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45 minutes ago, Eric #RIPChadwick said:

 

The next two tweets in the thread are very interesting as well, one thing Netflix has over most of the studios (expect probably Disney) is a strong sense of customer preferences that let them supersize their hits, a recent example is Cobra Kai were they could target people that watched a lot of 80s and 90s films and people in teen dramas and then the word of mouth spread from there. 
 

 

 

 

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36 minutes ago, excel1 said:

We do all realize that there will be a movie, at some point, that dramatically over performs expectations at the theater as a result of the incoming correction. TENET won't be it but would guess it will be one of BOND or WW84 should it mover to December.

Watch it be Margot Robbies Barbie movie 

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7 hours ago, Jason Bacon said:

A Facebook group I’m in for my favorite podcast had a theater manager post about “Tenet”. He said they only had 38 customers the entire day at the theater yesterday, and “Tenet” did 20 people over 17 showtimes. Each showing of “Tenet” averaged 1.17 customers.

Seem American finally follow social distancing protocol

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Nolan Top Openings

 

1. TDKR - $160.9mn

2. TDK - $158.4mn

3. Inception - $62.8mn

4. Dunkirk - $50.5mn

5. Batman Begin - $48.8mn

6. Interstellar - $47.3mn

7. Insomnia - $20.9mn

8. Prestige - $14.8mn

9. TENET - $11mn Approx.

Edited by charlie Jatinder
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