TENET Weekend Thread | 20.2M opening with previews and Canada | RIP Movies 1888-2020

[DeeCee]

6 minutes ago, Plain Old Tele said:

In the tradition of Puerto Rico, I had to do it.

 

I haven't been following the thread.  Thanks for the summary.

[RamblinRed]

i think the only thing this weekend confirms is that the movie industry has a huge worldwide issue (it's called a pandemic) and it is likely to be a big issue for at least another 6-8 months.

 

The numbers in the Domestic market just go to show that all the surveys over the last couple of months where only indoor music concerts had a lower percentage of people willing to see them were correct. Generally no more than 20% of Americans have said they would be comfortable going to a movie theater. As long as that is the case then any big movie is a no go for release. It's not even about how many theaters and seats are available. It is about how many GA are willing to show up and right now every polling suggests it is a small number. 

 

Europe is only better in comparison to the US. it's year over year numbers are significantly down and Tenet is doing ok because it is the only big movie out and so can dominate the number of screens and seats in a social distancing formula, But that also means you can't really have more than 1 big movie a month for any tentpole type movie to have any chance to make money, otherwise the screens get split and the number of seats available plummets. A model with only one big release per month won't work for most studios and you think about the summer months and the Holiday seasons when tentpole movies are being released on top of each other - that is not something that can be done right now anywhere in the Northern Hemisphere.

 

The bigger issue no one is dealing with yet is how quickly is this all going to go downhill in October/November in the Northern Hemisphere when the weather changes and people are mostly indoors. I expect a strong health push for people not to go anywhere with indoor crowds (theaters would certainly fit that bill) starting in Oct/Nov and running to at least Feb/Mar. IMO the Holiday season is likely to be largely a lost season. I could see it easily being next April or May before we are in a spot where we can start to release tentpole type movies. it will likely have to be after the winter flu season and hopefully after a working vaccine is released and has been distributed wide enough to make a difference. 

 

Somebody earlier in the thread mentioned Disney, right now this is something of an existential crisis for them. Their whole model is based on having large groups of people close together - whether that be in a theme park, a movie theater, a cruise ship, a hotel, etc. None of those are doable right now, which is why their revenue plunged last quarter over 93%. This week they are planning on shortening their hours at WDW because the numbers visiting have been smaller than expected. They are actually one company that desperately needs the pandemic to be brought under control because until it does they are going to hemmorage money.

 

Whatever happens we are likely to see alot less movies made over the next couple of years simply because the studios are not going to have as much money to make movies.

 

[filmlover]

4 minutes ago, RamblinRed said:

Somebody earlier in the thread mentioned Disney, right now this is something of an existential crisis for them. Their whole model is based on having large groups of people close together - whether that be in a theme park, a movie theater, a cruise ship, a hotel, etc. None of those are doable right now, which is why their revenue plunged last quarter over 93%. This week they are planning on shortening their hours at WDW because the numbers visiting have been smaller than expected. They are actually one company that desperately needs the pandemic to be brought under control because until it does they are going to hemmorage money.

The whispers that Soul is going to D+ will likely become a reality now but as a free for everyone exclusive if they don't like the Mulan numbers they're seeing since it was still in the early stages of its marketing campaign. They're not gonna risk both their 2020 Pixar movies becoming theatrical bombs and with the rule changes the Oscars have done for this year it gets to compete anyway.

[Borobudur]

Going by this rate, box office forum will have to cease operation

[Plain Old Tele]

37 minutes ago, filmlover said:

The whispers that Soul is going to D+ will likely become a reality now but as a free for everyone exclusive if they don't like the Mulan numbers they're seeing since it was still in the early stages of its marketing campaign. They're not gonna risk both their 2020 Pixar movies becoming theatrical bombs and with the rule changes the Oscars have done for this year it gets to compete anyway.

I mean, if you’re gonna dump SOUL on VOD, you might as well charge *something* for it. Maybe not $30, but I bet it’ll at least be $20. 

[Eric Duncan]

7 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

Going by this rate, box office forum will have to cease operation

We've already got plans for The On Demand Theory on standby. We'll debate over iTunes charts and twiddle our thumbs waiting for Netflix to reveal streaming viewership every couple of months. It's gonna be great.

[elcaballero]

3 minutes ago, Eric #RIPChadwick said:

We've already got plans for The On Demand Theory on standby. We'll debate over iTunes charts and twiddle our thumbs waiting for Netflix to reveal streaming viewership every couple of months. It's gonna be great.

We need someone on the inside.

[filmlover]

6 minutes ago, Plain Old Tele said:

I mean, if you’re gonna dump SOUL on VOD, you might as well charge *something* for it. Maybe not $30, but I bet it’ll at least be $20. 

It's possible, especially since they would put it out in time for the holidays when families would be together (or will they cause, ya know, 2020?). Although with a lot of people laid off from work for a good portion of the year (and therefore having limited funds for non-essentials), would it be worth it compared to just making it available to everyone with a D+ account?

 

Which raises another point: in addition to seeing a movie in an indoor theater during a pandemic already being a questionable scenario to put oneself in (can you even actually pay attention to a 2.5 hour movie when you'll probably spend most of it worrying about the other people you're sharing the auditorium with?), movies are just the last thing on a lot of people's minds right now. It's gonna be a long journey for entertainment across all forms (movies, theme parks, concerts, etc.) to see a full recovery to pre-pandemic norms.

[Eric Duncan]

4 minutes ago, filmlover said:

It's possible, especially since they would put it out in time for the holidays when families would be together (or will they cause, ya know, 2020?). Although with a lot of people laid off from work for a good portion of the year (and therefore having limited funds for non-essentials), would it be worth it compared to just making it available to everyone with a D+ account?

Trolls World Tour seemed to do just fine for families at that $20 price. Granted this was right when the economy was going downhill, but it's not like kids and families didn't already have a massive catalog from Netflix or Disney+ to watch for free. And of course an original Pixar title might not be as easy to sell as a live-action remake to an evergreen property, but with a solid campaign behind it, certainly it's much better to at least try and get some cash flow in rather than lose potential revenue by sticking it on there for free, even if the latter would give it more views.

[Legion Again]

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

The whispers that Soul is going to D+ will likely become a reality now but as a free for everyone exclusive if they don't like the Mulan numbers they're seeing since it was still in the early stages of its marketing campaign. They're not gonna risk both their 2020 Pixar movies becoming theatrical bombs and with the rule changes the Oscars have done for this year it gets to compete anyway.

If they don’t like how Mulan does they’ll probably try Soul at $20 for Premium Access.   
 

Putting blockbusters immediately for free just doesn’t make any sense. 

[Ryan Reynolds]

34 minutes ago, Plain Old Tele said:

I mean, if you’re gonna dump SOUL on VOD, you might as well charge *something* for it. Maybe not $30, but I bet it’ll at least be $20. 

you don't want D+ to get reputation for charging extra for new films, $10 would be easier to swallow for subscribers, charge $25 elsewhere and drive subs up

[filmlover]

17 minutes ago, Eric #RIPChadwick said:

Trolls World Tour seemed to do just fine for families at that $20 price. Granted this was right when the economy was going downhill, but it's not like kids and families didn't already have a massive catalog from Netflix or Disney+ to watch for free. And of course an original Pixar title might not be as easy to sell as a live-action remake to an evergreen property, but with a solid campaign behind it, certainly it's much better to at least try and get some cash flow in rather than lose potential revenue by sticking it on there for free, even if the latter would give it more views.

Yeah, that's the issue with charging a lot to rent a movie right now. The economy is in the dumps (and is looking to remain so for the rest of 2020). If every movie really wanted to maximize its potential revenue with the lowest risk of losing money they should've followed Fast 9's lead and moved back an entire year right as things were starting to spiral out of control.

Edited September 8, 2020 by filmlover

[charlie Jatinder]

2 hours ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

you don't want D+ to get reputation for charging extra for new films, $10 would be easier to swallow for subscribers, charge $25 elsewhere and drive subs up

I think simply go for Tiers. Make Premium access $12-15 a month and release the new content like Mulan, MCU shows, Mandalorian, etc. there, while the normal tier having library content and the new content after 3 months as usual.

Edited September 8, 2020 by charlie Jatinder

[tree]

12 hours ago, Barnack said:

It does change the situation so much that you could be right (I had people doing it for UFC/Wrestling PPV in mind, but those you want them live right away and pirated feed tend to be unreliable and low quality, that not the same for a movie).

 

Star Wars / Marvel would still have premiere party for people that do want to wait hours and to watch it right away in high Q, a lot of people watched Game of Thrones together after all on a legal HBO feed someone had/shared experience instead of pirating it couple of hours later and watching it alone.

If it was somehow a "one night only" event then yeah me and my friends would pay per view the movie event.  But obviously movies are nothing like live events. 

 

 

[cookie]

6 hours ago, filmlover said:

The whispers that Soul is going to D+ will likely become a reality now but as a free for everyone exclusive if they don't like the Mulan numbers they're seeing since it was still in the early stages of its marketing campaign. They're not gonna risk both their 2020 Pixar movies becoming theatrical bombs and with the rule changes the Oscars have done for this year it gets to compete anyway.

Soul is going to premiere at BFI London next month so at the moment they're not looking to delay it again, at least.

Edited September 8, 2020 by cookie

[Krissykins]

Yeh, Soul is showing in cinemas here in Glasgow on 11th October, as part of the film festival. 

[MrGamer]

[Eric Duncan]

[lorddemaxus]

7 minutes ago, Eric #RIPChadwick said:

Is this real?

[Eric Duncan]

4 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Is this real?

Found it from here lol. I'm assuming this is legit