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Eric Atreides

TENET Weekend Thread | 20.2M opening with previews and Canada | RIP Movies 1888-2020

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Ok so hear me out, though I am basing this on limited estimates, ignoring Canada which has done well, but...

 

USA FSS was about $9mn Approx, extended weekend (not including Labour day) of $12.5-13mn. If it hadn't burned off the demand in sneaks FSS would have been $11-12mn most likely. We have 35% of box office in US still closed. Hopefully those places will soon open, on top of that fear of COVID too. Now with hope that "that 35%" will open soon too and COVID fear will go down.

 

TENET won't be having any serious competition for months. I don't expect any major release till November end at least. This can leg out 4.5-5x easily from real value FSS, Unhinged is looking at 4.5x in US. That's about $50-60mn in 65% open market. The 35% market when open, can add another $25-35mn. US still has a chance at $75-100mn.

 

Then there is Canada, I expect around $5.5mn till Sunday. Spongebob was $2.1mn at end of 2nd weekend in Canada, is now at $3.3mn and possibly $5mn closing. TENET can go for $15mn in Canada, which will be around Interstellar in local currency.

 

I don't think $100mn NA is dead yet.

 

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5 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Ok so hear me out, though I am basing this on limited estimates, ignoring Canada which has done well, but...

 

USA FSS was about $9mn Approx, extended weekend (not including Labour day) of $12.5-13mn. If it hadn't burned off the demand in sneaks FSS would have been $11-12mn most likely. We have 35% of box office in US still closed. Hopefully those places will soon open, on top of that fear of COVID too. Now with hope that "that 35%" will open soon too and COVID fear will go down.

 

TENET won't be having any serious competition for months. I don't expect any major release till November end at least. This can leg out 4.5-5x easily from real value FSS, Unhinged is looking at 4.5x in US. That's about $50-60mn in 65% open market. The 35% market when open, can add another $25-35mn. US still has a chance at $75-100mn.

 

Then there is Canada, I expect around $5.5mn till Sunday. Spongebob was $2.1mn at end of 2nd weekend in Canada, is now at $3.3mn and possibly $5mn closing. TENET can go for $15mn in Canada, which will be around Interstellar in local currency.

 

I don't think $100mn NA is dead yet.

 

 

I think Greenland ( a disaster movie with the always cool Gerard Butler ) and Candyman ( horror movie ) will be serious competition for a movie that's considered confusing even by Nolan's die hard fans.

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21 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

so still no daily number? What a hard week for WB. Those Chinese numbers suddenly become astonishing.

They refuse to release the daily number because they realise the daily numbers are less than USA's total covid-cases. 

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39 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

so still no daily number? What a hard week for WB. Those Chinese numbers suddenly become astonishing.

no, its probably bc today we will learn the actuals from the labor day, so from tommorrow we will start getting dalies, its very normal actually

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I suspect that the "Full Speed Ahead" approach to the rest of the year by Warners is bring debated internally now. Never forget that a big Virus Number surge with the coming of Cold Weather in November and December is pretty much a given. Note that a lot of the trailers from other studios are not giving an exact release date. There is a reason for that....

I wonder if Warners execs are just having a hard time accepting that things are beyond their control.

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