TENET Weekend Thread | 20.2M opening with previews and Canada | RIP Movies 1888-2020

[Legion Again]

WB murdered this weekend thread in the crib. Boo, I say. Booooooooooo.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

I enjoyed Tenet and it's great to be back in a theater but the film has glaring flaws that prevent it from greatness. It's not consistently engaging or "fun" as something like Inception. It also ends on a whimper instead of a bang like most Nolan films. In my theater of about a dozen, the reaction seemed mixed. WB needed a better than expected OW for the good buzz and goodwill. It's a movie that will play better on the coasts than it will to middle-America where theaters are open

[Webslinger]

Honestly, I think it's going to take a while to really put Tenet's performance into full context. Nothing is normal about the circumstances under which it's opening, particularly the fact that there are still many areas shut out of showing anything theatrically at the moment.

 

I could see legs being incredibly strong just on the two bases of gradual expansion into cinemas that haven't re-opened yet and being the only really major release available to audiences. But at the moment, we just don't know how willing audiences outside of the big Nolan fans and film buffs are going to be about going out and seeing this movie (or any movie) amid the current conditions.

[DAJK]

Tenet had a 38.5% Friday-to Friday drop in my city (I'm in Canada). New Mutants was 52% (not including previews).

[forg]

I'm just glad to have a box office figure to wait around and analyze. I miss this

[Jamiem]

3 hours ago, Arendelle Legion said:

WB murdered this weekend thread in the crib. Boo, I say. Booooooooooo.

It’s also possible they’re not even breaking out weekend numbers, just a total to date so we won’t even be able to see (using offical numbers) how leggy it was from previews, Friday, see how it did in a Canada last weekend etc. 
 

This shit sucks. 

 

 

[Johnny Tran]

First big movie out in 6 months with some markets not participating and a lot of people still not going anywhere and people are in here expecting normalcy?   Gotta be trolling lol..  

 

I want to see the numbers too but they ain't gonna be normal. Nothing is normal. 

[RealLyre]

wait so WB will report the OW + the early previews + all of what Tenet made Canada in a single figure later today? I thought we would get FSS first. 

 

also if all what Tenet made from that is only 20M-23M, I don't how see how it could reach 90M-100M domestic total. even with it opening in 2500-3000 theaters instead of the usual 4000+ I never really subscribed to the idea of Tenet opening to less than 30M so it may be more about my expectations.

 

 

[RealLyre]

4 minutes ago, Johnny Tran said:

First big movie out in 6 months with some markets not participating and a lot of people still not going anywhere and people are in here expecting normalcy?   Gotta be trolling lol..  

 

I want to see the numbers too but they ain't gonna be normal. Nothing is normal. 

numbers are close to being semi-normal in China & Europe. I think people were expecting a similar performance to that in the states. which it might still do so as we still don't have

any numbers

 

Edited September 6, 2020 by RealLyre

[charlie Jatinder]

The numbers will be revealed tonight (IST) and I suppose they will give the day breakdown just like elsewhere.

 

Anyways, if TENET really do as much as I thought in tracking thread, can we have it on VOD in like late October. I hope thearers open in October in India but am not entirely optimistic so will love an early digital release.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Nah, Tenet isn't hitting VOD anytime soon. It'll just stay in theaters until they open in NY/LA whenever that is. I imagine it'll still be playing in October no matter how weak the opening is/bad legs are. WB won't pull it and theaters currently have no product

 

This will probably discourage other studios from releasing this year. Maybe WW84 stays and Bond/Black Widow since they're committed and can rely on international markets.

[forg]

Bond already resumed marketing and the franchise does well internationally so it likely stays in the same date

[Legion Again]

1 hour ago, Johnny Tran said:

First big movie out in 6 months with some markets not participating and a lot of people still not going anywhere and people are in here expecting normalcy?   Gotta be trolling lol..  

 

I want to see the numbers too but they ain't gonna be normal. Nothing is normal. 

People weren’t expecting normalcy. If so I’d be complaining about coming in below 60M. 
 

Just because expectations are low doesn’t mean it’s impossible to come below them.     
 

We don’t know the number yet, but I think pretty much everyone could agree that doing like 10M FSS would be a really poor result after New Mutants did over 6

[charlie Jatinder]

15 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

10M FSS would be a really poor result after New Mutants did over 6

Or TNM flopped just because of Covid. Considering TENET would have opened atleast 50mn in normalcy, say we are doing 25% of normalcy now, TNM would adjust to $28mn opening. 

[excel1]

Nobody outside of the internet fanboy crowd knew this was opening in theaters this weekend. It sounds like Nolan made a film too complex to even advertise well. 

 

Poor films/underperformers traditionally refocus filmmakers so expect Nolans next film to be the true GOAT

Edited September 6, 2020 by excel1

[mldardy]

18 minutes ago, excel1 said:

Nobody outside of the internet fanboy crowd knew this was opening in theaters this weekend. It sounds like Nolan made a film too complex to even advertise well. 

 

 

This is incorrect and you know it.

[Gamora]

Pretty much my thoughts on Tenet:

 

 

 

I mean, I got a reasonable amount of it but some of it tripped me up, but I know that's not exactly uncommon so that's fine. It was great to be back at the cinemas though, it's been 6 months since I was there last. I missed u, IMAX.

[imbruglia]

update forecast

$24.5 million four-day / $35 million domestic cume through Labor Day

 

 

https://www.boxofficepro.com/weekend-box-office-forecast-tenet-readies-for-wide-domestic-launch-as-theatrical-re-openings-continue-in-time-for-labor-day/

[imbruglia]

it will be interesting to see legs 

because usually public's hype/interest are centered around week 1~2 .

and not sure about wom too. this is not the type of film that you recommend casually to others and have that feeling good, fun, easy going thing.

 

[charlie Jatinder]

16 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

For a better analysis of @keysersoze123 numbers, doing some math. There are two ways to do it,

One is per show average performance.

Second is checking how many shows we tracked of Nationwide.

  Reveal hidden contents

New Mutants OD

MTC1 - 26485/318633  293K (1807 shows)

MTC2 - 27326/329682  296K (2176 shows)

 

The New Mutants had an true Friday of $2mn Approx in USA.

 

Approach 1: Looking at show wise numbers, it had Per Show Average of $162 in MTC 1 and $136 in MTC 2 on OD. TNM had $950 approx PTA for True Friday, which assuming there were around 10 shows per locs on an average, means $95 approx, around 60% of MTC 1 and 70% of MTC 2.

 

Approach 2: MTC 1 had less than half of theaters open while MTC 2 had over 60%, which would be 475 Approx. That's about 23% of TNM'S total USA locs, but the show count seems extremely low for that many theaters open, usually a big film has 13-15 shows on an average per locs as per Keyser, in case of TNM it just 6.5 and 11 respectively. We have roughly 4k shows tracked, that's 19% Approx of total. So 19% tracked shows had 29.5% of total gross.

 

Coming to TENET,

  Reveal hidden contents

Tenet OD

MTC1 - 35783/500498 398.5K (3156 shows)

MTC2 - 30613/391823 328K (2789 shows)

 

Approach 1: MTC 1 per show is $126 and MTC 2 is $117. That's lower than TNM. Yikes. I am thinking of on an average $80 per show avg across country. Assuming 12 shows per loc for TENET, we have around 29k shows, that gives about $2.3mn Approx US only True Friday.

 

Approach 2: MTC 1 and MTC 2 both have around 70% of theaters open, that will be around 31% of total US locs it is releasing, considerably up from 23% of TNM. Show wise, we have 20.7% of shows tracked, that should be 32% of total country box office. Again $2.25-2.3mn.

 

Canada I am thinking of $300-325k 2nd Friday Approx.

 

TL;DR: North America $2.55-2.6mn True Friday. $3.85-3.9mn including Thursday. 

 

I hope I am wrong badly.