Weekend thread - Sep 11 to 13 | Tenet and Broken Hearts Club grosses are shielded from everyone. Is this the end of box office reporting?

[filmlover]

5 minutes ago, wildphantom said:

I don’t know. There was buzz about this months ago, but I just don’t think people even know about it.  It’s enough to try and prize them into cinemas as it is, so they’re not going to buy a ticket from a walk-up.  

Was there? Feels like hardly anyone even knew about it even as it kept moving release dates around. It's perhaps telling the only post-lockdown movies that have made any sort of mark (even if it's still a small one) are ones that still had a good amount of marketing muscle behind them like Unhinged and New Mutants did.

[RealLyre]

6 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

so a 30%-33% drop for Tenet? that's pretty good no? where is the bad wom 

nvm seems like it's sub 30%. even better

 

 

 

[wildphantom]

3 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Was there? Feels like hardly anyone even knew about it even as it kept moving release dates around. It's perhaps telling the only post-lockdown movies that have made any sort of mark (even if it's still a small one) are ones that still had a good amount of marketing muscle behind them like Unhinged and New Mutants did.

I’d heard there were high hopes for it breaking out a long time ago.  But yeah, since Covid hit it was always going to arrive unnoticed.  They probably should have sold it to Netflix. Based on the wom it probably would be have been a huge hit on the platform. 
Any other year it had a chance to break out theatrically, but this year definitely ain’t it. 

[Hatebox]

So that's the rest of the domestic year done then. I suppose we should thank WB for confirming how bad the situation really is but honestly, what did they think was going to happen?

 

The only question now is what the global release schedule is for other movies. Infection numbers are already ticking back up in France and the UK so it's not a given movies will continue to do well in many other countries from here on out.

 

 

Edited September 13, 2020 by Hatebox

[DAJK]

So Tenet intl likely finishes around 220M? Domestic 50M?

[filmlover]

So looks like Tenet, even with small drops, will finish with $60-65M at most domestically. Best chances of breaking even are definitely on the home market now.

 

In good-ish news, everything had a small drop this weekend. Might signal to studios that whatever lower profile movies that carry a small budget they have are the ones worth putting out in the market right now as the tentpoles are likely to just abandon 2020 completely.

[vafrow]

So, will we see this as a regular reporting feature from WB where we get two sets of weekend numbers, one during the weekend, and a revised one when they're presenting the drop for the following weekend? 

[doublejack]

11 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

nvm seems like it's sub 30%. even better

 

Sure, the percentage drop is great, but the numbers are so small. That's the problem. Domestic releases have a very low ceiling for the remainder of 2020 and well into 2021. That's the new reality. Studios should proceed accordingly with whatever they decide to release into that environment.

[lilmac]

According to recent reports, that $20M “OW” for Tenet was more than just the four day weekend, which was closer to $12M. I don’t see how Bond or WW release this year. Even if Bond films make most of its money overseas.

[Krissykins]

Nice to see a film passing $200m, all things considered. 
 

Decent drop, -29%, but the numbers are too small. Understable now that they’ve moved WW84. 
 

It’s a shame about Broken Hearts Gallery, because it might put studios off even trying to release their smaller films. 
 

It seems they’ve already stopped reporting Bill & Ted, and I heard it only had a very brief stint at the top of streaming services. Piracy killed that one, I guess. 

[Webslinger]

2 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

It seems they’ve already stopped reporting Bill & Ted, and I heard it only had a very brief stint at the top of streaming services. Piracy killed that one, I guess. 

I would say it’s a likelier case of the film itself having niche appeal. I can’t imagine anyone who goes in not having seen at least one of the Bill & Ted’s movies having much interest in the new one.

[doublejack]

2 minutes ago, lilmac said:

According to recent reports, that $20M “OW” for Tenet was more than just the four day weekend, which was closer to $12M. I don’t see how Bond or WW release this year. Even if Bond films make most of its money overseas.

That $20M OW was actually a week in the US and something like 10 days in Canada. Previews started in the US a full four days before the release date. WB is admitting, with their sub 30% drop figure, that the true OW number was less than $10M. In other words, peanuts for a tentpole.

 

I don't see how studios can release films that cost upwards of $100-150M to make into that environment and hope to turn a profit. If Bond or WW84 get released this year, it will mean Sony / WB want the tax write-off from the losses they'll be booking. Realistically, they should be targeting summer 2021 or later. Until then, small budget films are the only game in town.

[titanic2187]

Actually 29% post -holiday hold is quite ok, compared to Unhinged's 2nd week of wide release (35% drop) 

[Daxtreme]

I'm shocked, shocked to find that a system where studios throw $210 MILLION on a single movie one after the other isn't such a great system after all and was bound to crash and burn as soon as anything major happened! Shocked!

[MrPink]

25 minutes ago, DAJK said:

So Tenet intl likely finishes around 220M? Domestic 50M?

 

International should probably finish around 275m. There is still Japan, India, and South America remaining though I wouldn't count on those markets contributing more than some 30m or so.

 

Domestic really depends on NY/LA, but I'm thinking around 60m-ish.

Edited September 13, 2020 by MrPink

[lorddemaxus]

6 minutes ago, doublejack said:

I don't see how studios can release films that cost upwards of $100-150M to make into that environment and hope to turn a profit. If Bond or WW84 get released this year, it will mean Sony / WB want the tax write-off from the losses they'll be booking. Realistically, they should be targeting summer 2021 or later. Until then, small budget films are the only game in town.

If Tenet can make over $250 mil OS (which is more likely than not), Bond should do $400 mil+ OS. Add round $60-70 mil domestic and that should allow it to breakeven. 

Edited September 13, 2020 by lorddemaxus

[RealLyre]

Yeah the raw numbers domestically are low but the good drops indicate good word of mouth. 

[filmlover]

If the drops continue to hold great the next few weeks with so little set to come out (Death on the Nile is now the next major release now that Wonder Woman and Candyman moved) it won't be too bad. But with the numbers already so low it remains to be seen if theaters will start to just close again.

[charlie Jatinder]

Saturday drop we have is only 18% as per our numbers while Friday was 27% down. Sunday will have big drop however at 40-45%.

 

The real value drop is perhaps 30% approx cutting down the re openings in California.

[Barnack]

16 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

Actually 29% post -holiday hold is quite ok, compared to Unhinged's 2nd week of wide release (35% drop) 

Was Unhinged drop calcuated using pure FSS of is first weekend ?