Cookie's Way Too Early Y8 Forecast (and done, I guess)

[cookie]

So... Year 8.

 

After I moved The Scavenger Wars Part IV off the schedule and delayed it to Year 9, it wouldn't be inaccurate to say that the race for the top spot has become a lot more uncertain. Between numerous high profile sequels and reboots, and new, exciting original projects or adaptations, Year 8 still has a lot to offer after the highs of Year 7.

 

Unlike last year's forecast thread done by @YourMother the Edgelord, who will not do it this year due to having the honor of actually deciding the actuals this time around, this will include a lot of films that may or may not actually make it to theaters in Year 8, so a few of these predictions may be rendered moot come January 2021/whenever Part 1 actually ends up closing. There's also no way of telling how these films are going to look like or be received as in their final form, so everything said here is entirely preliminary.

 

RULES:

 

• I will only cover films that were on the advance schedule prior to the posting of Part 1. If your movie wasn't on there, I'm not going to talk about it. That's all on you.
• I can't guarantee this will be the schedule, but I'll try to do a quarter each day. Delays may happen since I'm at a new job, so don't @ me if I can't finish my predicts every single day.
• Rather than predicting a specific number, I'll try to come up with a fairly wide range to include factors such as reviews, content and competition. I also won't include opening weekend predicts on ALL of them, rather those I can confidently give out a number without having to factor in differences in holiday calendars and vice versa.
• These are just my opinions. Feel free to disagree, but I'm not going to buckle under pressure unless I made a major error somewhere.

 

EXCEPTION:

 

Green Arrow: The Ninth Circle was not on the advance schedule to my knowledge, but since it's A ) a sequel to a film that grossed over $500m worldwide, and B ) already posted, I'm going to include it in the predictions despite not appearing on the advance schedule. If another major sequel/tentpole is posted between now and the completion of this thread, I may include it with reason, but every other film is still excluded. This is my thread, I can decide what fits and what doesn't however I want.

 

SEQUELS:

 

Including the aforementioned Green Arrow sequel, the "sequels" that will be discussed include:

 

• World War Z *
• Static Shock: The Metahuman Agenda
• Pokémon: The Case of the Orange Outrage
• Totem of the Elders *
• Mass Effect: Revelation
• Sisters of Jump Street *
• One Punch Man: A Monster Rises
• Attack on Titan: Wings of Freedom
• Untitled Speed Revamp *
• Green Arrow: The Ninth Circle
• Untitled Olive the Other Reindeer Halloween Sequel
• World of Trouble
• The Wild Thornberrys *
• The Last Airbender: The Boy in the Iceberg *
• The Wicker Man *
• Untitled Unbeatable Squirrel Girl sequel
• Plus Two

 

Before anyone jumps at me, note that some of these come with an asterisk. That's because, as I understand it, these are not what you would traditionally call "sequels", rather they're being described as spin-offs, reboots, reimagenings etc. If I'm wrong on any of these, feel free to correct me. For the purpose of this prediction thread though, they will be judged under the ruleset as being "sequels."

 

(While Sisters of Jump Street, The Wicker Man and World War Z are spin-offs/reboots to IRL films, those IRL films are still treated as canon in CAYOM therefore they are valid targets for comparison)

 

Each "sequel" will come with an extra section that examines the film's likelihood of seeing an increase from its predecessor. For some, it's obvious they'll go one way or another, for others, it's a whole lot less clear. For this, I've come up with FOUR tiers that I will apply to each film and give an explanation for why I think it belongs in that tier. Disagree with what film belongs where all you want, but these are my opinions.

 

HIGHLY LIKELY - This is the highest tier and is applied to films where, in my opinion, something disastrous has to occur for the film to not see an increase at the box office from its predecessor.

LIKELY - This tier is for films where an increase is definitely possible, maybe even probable, but one or two factors may hold it back.

UNLIKELY - An increase is very much possible, but there are large roadblocks for it to clear, so don't bet on it.

HIGHLY UNLIKELY - The lowest tier. An increase is never out of the question, but all factors are pointing against it, and the film needs a huge stroke of luck (whether it'd be in quality, competition etc.) to prove otherwise.

 

Just as a demonstration and because it should be obvious, I'm already applying the HIGHLY LIKELY tier to The Wicker Man, as it sells itself as a follow-up to the 1973 original, and Box Office Mojo does not have any record of that film's domestic gross, and it's unlikely that a British cult classic that remained semi-obscure for a couple decades would have made enough in 1973 that its follow-up wouldn't easily exceed it, at least in unadjusted gross.

 

 

COMING TOMORROW:

 

The first quarter of Y8. From the February title-bout between the Static Shock and Pokémon sequels, to the high-bugdet The Legend of Zelda and World War Z adaptations, the first quarter of Year 8 is a little light going by the advance schedule, but should make for some interesting predictions nonetheless.

 

 

 

 

Edited November 28, 2020 by cookie

[Reddroast]

I fell WWZ is going to be highly unlikely. But I don't care

[Blankments]

As I mentioned on the Telegram chat (I'm trying to put a more concrete record o my sayings by posting here more), Plus Two is on the advanced schedule as well but it's not listed as a sequel

 

(Also, if you wish to count The Last Airbender as a reboot, that is missing as well.)

[YM!]

I’m curious on what you’ll think Static Shock 2 will do.

[cookie]

THE FIRST QUARTER

 

The first quarter of Year 8 is very light on films that are eligible for this forecast, so this'll be a shorter one. Still, each one of them has potential to deliver pretty solid grosses, so the lack of major competition surrounding them should be to their benefit.

 

 

World War Z

 

The first tentpole release of Year 8 (yes, I know nothing is going to beat the masterpiece in the making that's Losers Weepers, but let's pretend we are giving the other movies a fair shot here, okay?) is a reboot of the 2013 action/horror blockbuster now lacking both Brad Pitt and some truly magnificent product placement, but is hoping to make up for it with an all-star line of directors and faithfulness to the source material. The anthology format should help the film at least stand out from the way past tired zombie genre, but will interest be high enough to 

 

Increase from predecessor? HIGHLY UNLIKELY

 

This adaptation of World War Z, as I understand it, goes much harder into the horror and catastrophe of the original novel rather than intense action scenes like the Brad Pitt version, and coupled with the MLK release date it becomes that much less probable it's going to match or exceed its predecessor. The anthology format, while it could please fans of the novel, is probably going to limit some of the appeal among blockbuster audiences as well. There's always the slight possibility that this breaks out way beyond expectations (the Brad Pitt film was famously underestimated as well), but the world out there is already a living apocalypse, so maybe audiences aren't so interested in another zombie one.

 

Predict: $90-$150 million

 

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Static Shock: The Metahuman Agenda

 

 

Skating by with average reviews, Year 5's Static Shock performed more in the middle tier when it comes to Endless Entertainment's growing pantheon of superhero films, but with Green Lantern Corps: Home shining bright last Christmas and a Black History Month release date for this new sequel, The Metahuman Agenda does have a few things going in its favor. The studio has also brought in F. Gary Gray of Faces and Voices and Spark: Homeward fame to direct this new installment, and his involvement could boost some additional interest.

 

Unfortunately, Static Shock also has a few major roadblocks that could prevent it from maintaining the franchise's momentum, namely that Pokémon: The Case of the Orange Outrage is scheduled to bow only a week later, which not only robs Static Shock of its IMAX benefits, but a lot of the family audience as well. It could also be that audiences had their DC superhero fill with Green Lantern back in December and so wouldn't have the same crave for Static Shock as they may otherwise have had, but that could very easily be offset by the underserved demographics that the film's themes are most likely to strike a chord with. CAYOM has yet to have its Black Panther moment, after all.

 

Increase from predecessor? LIKELY / UNLIKELY

 

Some of these are going to be border cases, and I'm allowing films to be included in multiple tiers to reflect that. In the case of Static Shock, its main obstacle barring exceptionally good or exceptionally poor reviews is the Pokémon sequel arriving just a week later, but unless a major tentpole drops between Pokémon and Zelda it looks to be otherwise smooth sailing from President's Day all the way into Spring Break. Endless Entertainment's track record with live-action sequels is certainly mixed between the likes of Treasure Planet and Green Lantern Corps, so it could come down to reviews and what happens with Pokémon for this one.

 

Predict: $175-$240 million

 

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Pokémon: The Case of the Orange Outrage

 

Pokémon as a series has yet to eclipse the box office heights of the first installment ($293m domestic), but its two sequels, Year 4's Rise of the Rockets and Year 6's The Cinnabar Conspiracy ($278m and $285m respectively) came awfully close. Now that Stephanie's journey has reached its end and the fan favorites of Ash, Brock and Misty are set to lead the charge in this fourth installment, is there going to be much change in the series's current momentum?

 

Pokémon has a dedicated enough fanbase that the films have churned out $100m+ openings on a consistent basis. They’ve been very frontloaded though, signaling that the appeal among general audiences is hardly growing, and it's a question if a dedicated fanbase is enough to keep the retention rate high or if the cracks are going to start showing.

 

What could make the fourth time the charm, however, is that as of now there's no tentpole film scheduled between it and March's The Legend of Zelda adaptation, so family audiences should be captivated with both it and Static Shock well into Spring Break. At the same time, there's not that much evidence that the Pokémon franchise has been affected positively or negatively by competition in the past (save for the fact that the third film came out a couple of weeks before the Spark finale, but any film was going to buckle under its wake), so it might just keep existing in its own space where fans of the property will keep going to see it while other audiences will be indifferent enough to not move the needle either way.

 

Increase from predecessor? UNLIKELY

 

Pokémon is one of CAYOM's more reliable franchises, no doubt about it, but the question remains if the new storyline and focus on fan favorite characters would be enough to keep things chugging along or if the time's come for the franchise to start crumbling under the weight of its own success. If a decrease happens, I predict it to be a minor one, but I can't see an increase occurring unless Orange Outrage receives reviews that transcend the norm for the series.

 

Predict: $250-$285 million

 

 

The Legend of Zelda: Secret of the Guardians

 

Q1 Y8's first scheduled tentpole that's not a sequel or a reboot of a previous film, The Legend of Zelda: Secret of the Guardians is still an adaptation of an iconic Nintendo franchise just behind Mario and Pokémon in overall popularity (Animal Crossing is a bit debatable since we don't know whether or not New Horizons's unprecedented success is a fluke thanks to the pandemic), and the recent conversion from animation to live-action has raised ambitions of it becoming the next Pillars of Eternity — that's what Cookie Pictures is hoping, anyway.

 

Zelda's advantage, currently, lies in the fact that it has plenty of free space in either direction on the calendar, with live-action competitors in the form of Pokémon: The Case of the Orange Outrage and Totem of the Elders both a month away, and it is able to take advantage of Spring Break being in full swing at the moment as well as the Easter holidays two weeks later. March is a fruitful month for blockbusters and fantasy films in particular, This could change as the year progresses, but with a lot of tentpoles currently fighting for either summer or holiday slots, the spring season has been left to its own devices for the most part.

 

Among past Nintendo adaptations there's the aforementioned Pokémon series, the very successful Splatoon from Year 5, and Year 6's Super Mario Bros., which grossed over $300 million domestic and $1 billion worldwide. While game popularity hasn't been a reliable indicator of how its adaptation performs 5n the past (just compare the moderate domestic grosses of the Call of Duty films with the likes of Mass Effect and Pillars), I think a large-scale Zelda film with decent reviews should fit comfortably in with that crowd, and if competition continues to be light, has a shot at taking it a bit further. I think, moreso than the other tentpoles in the first quarter, it is very execution dependent.

 

Predict: $225-$300 million

Edited November 12, 2020 by cookie

[YM!]

My dong has expanded. Great predicts @cookie though I would like to add a point in favor of Static 2. Endless Entertainment has had great luck with the February slot (Blue and Gold and Medusa overperformed doing $260M+ and $290M DOM respectively with the former facing a Pokémon film, and Plastic-Man despite mixed reviews did about $175M).

[SLAM!]

I think World War Z could gross over $125M.

[cookie]

THE SECOND QUARTER (PART ONE)

 

Totem of the Elders

 

Year 6's Shiverin' Gulch is not seeing a direct sequel, at least not right away, but it is seeing a spin-off directed by none other than Mad Max: Fury Road's George Miller, which if nothing else should raise a few eyebrows. What should also raise a few eyebrows is that this spin-off isn't even connected to Gulch outside of being set in the same universe, which in my opinion is a bit of a bold gamble when you've only had one film to establish the "universe" thus far. Is being ahead of the curve the right move, or is Blankments Productions risking confusing audiences or saturating them before the franchise even really gets to take off?

 

As for Totem's positioning on the calendar, the mid-April release date is pretty solid as of this writing, allowing plenty of time to excavate before the Mass Effect threequel bows three weeks later, and far enough from Cookie Pictures' Zelda film that it'll be a bit of a non-factor by the time Totem arrives. Shiverin' Gulch received generally positive reviews and had solid holds for an October release, but as stated before, it's a question if it's enough to convince audiences to go for an unconnected spin-off when they might be expecting a real sequel.

 

Increase from predecessor? LIKELY

 

To repeat, the main thing that's holding me back on Totem of the Elders is the fact that it's not Shiverin' Gulch 2. Not even close to it. It may be rendered a moot point by the final product, but the question is if moviegoers are going to readily accept a wholly unconnected spin-off before a proper sequel, and I think if it fails to meet expectations that could hurt it exponentially. While I think Miller is more than capable of delivering a solid product, the hurdles the film have to clear with box office are a bit higher than it would've been had we've gotten a proper sequel instead.

 

Predict: $125-$200 million

 

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Mass Effect: Revelation

 

I'm not sure how widespread this belief is, but to me, the third Mass Effect is the first real contender for being the top dog of Year 8, at least among the current crop. Yes, maybe something prior to it will surprise big time, but Mass Effect is the first on the calendar that screams "event" to me. Static Shock, Pokémon and Zelda may all be big, but the highs that the crew of Normandy are gunning for their third mission I see as closer to the likes of Green Lantern Corps and Scavenger Wars.

 

Yes, we're in that territory.

 

 

I am of the opinion that the Mass Effect saga is a lid waiting to blow, and I've held that belief for a while. Ascension was generally regarded as a substantial improvement on its predecessor and one of the best tentpole films of Y6, and I think its marginal increase at the domestic box office from the first film is going to be rectified big time with the third installment. Not just because of Ascension's reception, but because we're finally moving into iconic storylines and locales from the games with all the stellar set up from two previous films.  Like Ascension the current conditions are in Revelation's favor, from a three-week monopoly on IMAX screens in addition to the coveted first weekend of May release date. These conditions could make a sharp turn for the worse should more films decide they want to challenge it, but I honestly wouldn't recommend they do that.

 

Mass Effect's one weakness as a franchise, though, has been underwhelming legs. Revelation was slightly more frontloaded than its predecessor despite more favorable conditions, so reaching the heights I'm predicting at the moment will take a monster opening weekend. The same percentage increase from the first film to Ascension would net Revelation an opening in the mid-140s, but I think it can go a step higher than that, especially if it follows the trend of Numerator Pictures' other threequel, Pillars of Eternity: An Ancient Legacy.

 

Increase from predecessor? HIGHLY LIKELY

 

Sure, Revelation is not the conclusion of an ongoing story arc like An Ancient Legacy, but for me and I believe most people's money, it doesn't have to be. All of this could change if the film fails to deliver, but after Ascension I have the utmost faith in the crew of the Normandy to step up to the plate, bring all their biggest stars out on the field (go, Garrus), and aim for the fences in the next town over. Just remember to have your feet on the ground and not miss a swing.

 

Predict: $375-$500 million

 

 

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Sisters of Jump Street

 

While real life continues failing to deliver the Men in Black / Jump Street crossover that's been thrown around since 2014, Endless Entertainment is hoping to work its magic with a female-led spin-off in the tight window between the Mass Effect and One Punch Man sequels. While the cast may bring flashes of the failed Charlie's Angels reboot for some, the Jump Street spin-off has a solid enough director behind the wheel and the previous films are still held in enough high regard among audiences that it should command attention during opening weekend. Will audiences go for a spin-off after all this time instead of a proper third film, though?

 

Increase from predecessor? UNLIKELY

 

This was very close to dropping into the bottom tier because the $191 million domestic gross of 2014's 21 Jump Street is going to be a tough act to follow, especially when it's a spinoff, but there is one factor that makes Sisters of Jump Street a bit of a dark horse in this scenario: Going off of the advance schedule, the spring to early summer window is littered with films aimed primarily at either male audiences or families, not many for women. Past May comedic hits like the first Neighbors, Bridesmaids and Pitch Perfect 2 succeeded acting as counter-programming to the action-heavy tentpoles (yes, Jump Street is also an action series, but it's seen as a comedy first and foremost) should be considered as well, as their adjusted grosses put them close to the $191 million mark (I think). Close is never cigar, obviously, but it's worth considering.

 

Just because I raise the possibility though doesn't mean I think it'll happen — the stars kinda have to align for this one to break out of its expected range, in my opinion. The point of this forecast is to explore potential angles and explain my reasonings with entirely preliminary info, not to decipher any race before it's even started.

 

Predict: $90-150 million

 

 

One Punch Man: A Monster Rises

 

One of the least controversial predictions of Year 8 is that Lager Pictures' One Punch Man sequel is going to see a drop from its Year 5 predecessor. The only question on everyone's mind is, "how much?"

 

From a very mixed reception to the original film to a somewhat less favorable release window — Memorial Day is Memorial Day, but A Monster Rises will have two to three weeks before summer weekdays kick in, which means the film has to surpass expectations for weekly holds to still be in a position to be seeing much benefit — there's a wide range of possibilities going from absolutely catastrophic, to disappointing, to not bad given the circumstances. It kind of comes down to if the consensus on A Monster Rises is that it's an improvement or not. The smaller and more focused plotline already promised is a good start, as I don't think there's any use going broader when the whole plot of the series is that your hero can kill anyone with one punch. The opening weekend of a sequel is often a referendum on what audiences thought of the last film, so an improved quality won't help A Monster Rises much there, but it could lead to better than expected holds in the long run.

 

Increase from predecessor? HIGHLY UNLIKELY

 

Some would argue One Punch Man vastly overperformed and its very mixed reception is going to bring the sequel far down to earth. I'm in agreement that there's not much use in hoping for an audience expansion, rather Lager Pictures should work on preventing the franchise from bleeding out completely. I think a much more focused, exciting sequel would do the trick, so I am optimistic for what the studio has in store.

 

Predict: $170-$240 million

Edited November 12, 2020 by cookie

[cookie]

THE SECOND QUARTER (PART TWO)

 

Meeka

 

As the old saying that I just made up goes, it's a fool's game underestimating Endless Animation. The studio has churned out a lot of big hits over its existence, from the likes of Medusa, to Can You Imagine?, to Squirrel Girl, to what's unequivocally its magnum opus, Gateways. Their latest entry, Meeka, has a lot going for it on paper, from an all-African american cast to the massive scope of its fantasy premise. But is it enough?

 

Meeka is the only film in the early summer that's aimed squarely at families, at least for the moment, so it should play strongly in the midst of more adult-oriented fare. Like with Static Shock as well, Endless is going straight for an underserved audience which are tough to gauge but hard to deny come out in droves at the right film. Will this make Meeka another Gateways? Probably not, since the release calendars are way different and thinking lightning will strike twice only sets you up for disappointment, but the low bar here should be pretty high nonetheless.

 

Predict: $225-$375 million

 

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Untitled Rian Johnson Project

 

Uhh... how do I explain this one in an unbiased way seeing I haven't even given away what it is yet, lol?

 

I guess I can say that I'm aiming for more or less the same levels as the first Scavenger Wars film, so that should sort of set expectations for the eventual range. If nothing else, the massive cast (after three Odyssey films and bit parts in various franchises, Hugh Jackman should be one of if not the most bankable name in CAYOM) and the director should guarantee at least some interest, and I'm trying as much as I can to not elicit any space opera comparisons given how saturated that genre is. Dropping on Father's Day weekend like I did with the Scavenger Wars threequel last should provide a little bit of a boost as well, but obviously I have to actually show people what it's about and then deliver on it before we can really talk serious business. I hope to do it this weekend, especially since it's my birthday on Saturday (yay me), but I've been promising much and delivering little so far.

 

Might happen I revisit this one after my reveal so I can discuss it in far more detail, but this is my very preliminary range as of now:

 

Predict: $225-$350 million

 

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Beastars

 

This one is another "uhh..." but for different reasons.

 

Seriously, I am honestly lost on this one. The premise and cast list has gotten a fair share of attention, obviously, but is this something that mainstream audiences will go for? Maybe the combination of anime and furry bait will do the trick? Anime has a spotty track record in CAYOM, but people do like their furry bait.

 

I think it's a case where the low range can be really low, but the high range can be pretty decent. I'm going to put it above Bambi: A Life in the Woods as the high range, since Alpha Pictures may make few films, but the hit range amongst that limited output is really strong, and it'll probably come down to reviews and how particularly horny the furry community is that weekend for this one to pull through. The murder mystery plotline mixed with "that wolf is gonna bang that rabbit, huh?" should draw morbid curiosity if nothing else, regardless if it's a masterpiece or if it's complete crap, plus with the holiday weekend in front of it it should stick around long enough so that later summer tentpoles like Ms. Marvel and the Attack on Titan follow-up don't make too much of a dent.

 

Stranger things have happened. Between this and the Rian Johnson film, at least Alex Wolff gets a busy June ahead of him.

 

Predict: $60-$175 million

 

 

(Yes, I know some of these ranges are kinda wild but I had less to work from than I initially thought lol)

Edited November 5, 2020 by cookie

[cookie]

THE THIRD QUARTER (PART ONE)

 

Ms. Marvel

 

CAYOM continues to be the home of films about DC/Marvel superheroes that, in the separate dimension some like to call the “real world”, have either failed to break through cinematically (see Green Lantern) or have been relegated to television (see Green Arrow). Kamala Khan a.k.a Ms. Marvel has a better outlook at the moment if the promises that her Disney+ series leads to her appearing in future MCU films hold true, but in CAYOM context that’s irrelevant.

 

What is relevant is that the earlier mentioned Green Arrow and its CAYOM adaptation should be seen as the floor for this one, especially since Kamala Khan’s powerset should allow for bigger and more inventive action sequences than Oliver Queen’s does. As for the ceiling? Depends on the quality, really. Competition is looking cramped going forward (though between Titan, Speed, Red Dead and Animal Crossing, only the latter seems like much of a threat in my estimation), and while the Muslim-American demographic may break for it like the African-American demographic potentially could for Static Shock, that’s a much smaller population pool to draw from so it’s not likely to have the same impact. 

 

Kamala’s first (non-cameo) cinematic outing could play big with young women, though, and outside of, again, Animal Crossing, there’s little during the rest of the summer that’s looking to break in the same direction. The wild-card factor is pretty high here, I think, but given the success of superhero films like the Green Lantern Corps series and the aforementioned Static Shock, there shouldn’t be too much to worry about.

 

Predict: $175-$300 million

 

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Animal Crossing

 

This one comes with a major caveat since it’s already been posted: I have not read it yet. I have not read anything posted yet but the festival entries and briefly skimmed through a couple of fillers, so this forecast is based on me not knowing anything about how the film plays out or its quality. Just keep that in mind.

 

Anyhow, remember during my Zelda forecast when I said:

 

Quote

Animal Crossing is a bit debatable since we don't know whether or not New Horizons's unprecedented success is a fluke thanks to the pandemic.

 

Whether or not that’s true is still up for debate, but it is relevant to how I’m going to predict this. Had this come out in Year 6 or earlier my prediction would’ve been lower, but New Horizons has broken out in a way previous Animal Crossing entries haven’t, and going into the Christmas season is seeing no signs of slowing down. It’s also had the level of real-world impact few games have had; being used in presidential campaigns, Hong Kong pro-democracy movements, talk shows, etc. (The closest comparison, Among Us, I think is going to be an interesting case as well should Slam finish it.)

 

Of course, real word success doesn’t correlate with CAYOM success (otherwise, the Call of Duty films would make Spark levels of money), and films chasing a zeitgeist have had mixed results in the past. Animal Crossing is also very much a “casual” game which may lend itself to a laid back experience, but maybe not one that’s going to have people forming lines around the block. Not that being laid back is a bad thing, but I don’t know if its box office ceiling couldn’t be affected by that.

 

That said, I think the ceiling is still fairly high, provided it doesn’t stink (and films targeted at families are more immune to critic reviews than others), and its position on the schedule couldn’t be any better as of this writing, with there being no other family film between Meeka in late May all the way to Larrikins in September (though Ms. Marvel may siphon a not-insignificant portion of that demographic), meaning it’ll be able to take full advantage of the summer vacation period and keep going well into August. Is that enough to place it among the top-grossing films of the season? I don’t know, I have to see the final product to decide that, but I can see it do pretty well for itself.

 

Predict: $150-$275 million

 

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Attack on Titan: The Wings of Freedom

 

After last year’s entry opened to $115 million and barely crossed the $300 million domestic mark (though struck over a billion worldwide), all eyes are now on the sequel to see if it can replicate the same result, exceed it or drop way under. The vibe I’m getting is not overly optimistic, but I think the outlook for this one is stronger than it is for the One Punch Man follow-up, and not just because its scheduling compared to its predecessor is no less favorable.

 

Increase from predecessor? UNLIKELY / LIKELY

 

To say that last year’s Attack on Titan was another One Punch Man would be unfair in my opinion; yes, some reviews were mixed, some leaning more negative, but there was strong praise levied at it as well. Granted, that kind of divisive reaction can lead to a negative outcome for the follow-up, but I think a more consistent reception to its successor, preferably positive, can do a world of good, and that’s why I don’t want to count an increase out. Yes, the competition going into August is looking to be fairly tight, but the first movie went up against somewhat similar predicaments and came out just fine on the other side, even if the film was ultimately somewhat frontloaded.

 

Matt Reeves also has the benefit of the doubt here given that his Odyssey follow-up was seen as a massive improvement over its predecessor, if not regarded as one of the best blockbuster films in CAYOM memory, so if Wings of Freedom is anything like The Counsel of the Dead, then the sky's almost the limit here.

 

That is a ridiculously high bar to clear, I know, so let’s go with a modest predict for now.

 

Predict: $250-$325 million

 

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Folklore: A Swift Experience

 

I mean… yes, Taylor Swift’s Folklore is one of the most acclaimed albums in recent years, but… is there much to predict here as far as a concert doc goes? Maybe if there’s more substance to it than previous concert films have had, we could have something, but as of now, I don’t see much reason for it to break out of the current norm. Not much to see here.

 

Predict: $20-$40 million

 

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Untitled Speed Revamp

 

To be honest, I’m surprised a Speed remake hasn’t been attempted IRL yet given Hollywood’s obsessiveness with remaking everything because original ideas are too scary, but I guess that lends even more credence for a new Speed film being made in CAYOM. After bringing back both High School Musical and The Princess Diaries, Blankments Productions is leaving 2000s nostalgia behind and looking back at the 90s for anything to scrounge after, setting their sight on the 1994 Jan de Bont action-thriller Speed, which outside the premise is most known for launching Sandra Bullock’s career and affirming Keanu Reeves’s status as an action star in the days before The Matrix and John Wick.

 

Is there enough gas left on this bus so lightning can strike twice (ignoring the terrible sequel), or is said bus going to drop below fifty miles per hour and explode in a fiery, agonizing blaze?

 

That got pretty dark.

 

Increase from predecessor? HIGHLY LIKELY

 

Something has to go very wrong for this new entry to drop below the infamous Cruise Control’s $48 million domestic gross, so there’s no question about that. What is a question, I feel, is if a gross over the original Speed’s $121 million is a done deal, because I’m not a hundred percent sure it is.

 

Hear me out; As far I understand it, there’s no Keanu Reeves or Sandra Bullock in this one. In fact, this is basically going to be a remake with a setting change and a new cast.

 

That… could easily spell trouble. I don’t think Speed has had the same cultural impact the likes of Jurassic Park or The Fugitive have had, but people do remember it pretty fondly, and this new take could garner the reaction of “what’s the point?” if it isn’t fresh or nostalgic enough, and I think the latter appeal is currently out the window. The remakes/follow-ups to Ben-Hur and Independence Day, just to name a few, are proof that just because it’s something people recognize doesn’t mean they will automatically turn out for it, even less so if it’s crap.

 

Its position on the schedule is precarious as well, with Titan in the rear view mirror and Red Dead in front, and a disappointing reception could mean that late August legs won’t be enough to save it. A positive reception may convince people that didn’t recognize or care for the original to turn out, however, as Speed has a simple enough premise as far as action films go, but that’s a hypothetical and is hard to gauge without there even being a finalized title yet.

 

This predict is going to sound pessimistic, and I’ll revisit it once I have more to go off of, but if I have concerns I feel it’d be wrong of me not to share them, so here goes.

 

Predict: $75-$160 million

 

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Red Dead Redemption, vol. 1

 

Sorry, Numbers, gonna have to break with you a bit on this one. Yes, westerns aren’t the box office powerhouse they once were, but if Django Unchained proved anything, it’s that brand matters more than genre (in that instance, it was Tarantino. In this, it’s the popular Rockstar series). Expectations seem pretty high for this one as far as quality is concerned (and with that cast and crew, it should be), and if it delivers on that, it should be highly beneficial in the long run, especially since it should play well through August and into the fall season. 

 

I’m not going to go too crazy here, not knowing how exactly it’s going to play out, but I do think it’s being low-balled quite a bit.

 

Predict: $150-$225 million

 

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Penpal

 

Lager Pictures long-gestating passion project might finally come to fruition in Year 8 (key word: might), and while it’s not in any way connected to Year 6’s breakout success Borrasca, that I know of, it would be hard not to see it as sort of a follow-up. The choice of director is hardly the most commercial, but I think unless there’s an element that would cause audiences to barf out an “F” on their CinemaScore cards, I don’t think it’ll be much of an issue.

 

What could be an issue, though, is the release date. Borrasca benefited greatly from the summer season, and a weak one at that, while Penpal has to start from Labor Day (a holiday that hasn’t really produced blockbusters in the past) and run into the busy fall season where there’s definitely bound to be a lot of other adult-targeting dramas and thrillers to steal people’s attention. Given how long it’s been in development, the end result could go either way, but I’m going to predict on the lower end of things for now until I feel I have more information to go off of.

 

Predict: $50-$125 million

Edited November 12, 2020 by cookie

[cookie]

THE THIRD QUARTER (PART TWO) / THE FOURTH QUARTER (PART ONE)

 

 

Fullmetal Alchemist: A Tale of Two Brothers

 

As far as this adaptation of the iconic manga/anime series is concerned, this is the fall season’s largest wildcard. With an unconventional release date for a tentpole film (yes, the two It films made a lot of money in the post-Labor Day frame, but we’ve yet to see an action/fantasy blockbuster appear in that release slot) and the spotty track record for anime adaptations in CAYOM so far, this can go either way. Setting aside my opinions on the version I’ve pre-read, quality and timing is going to play a major factor for this film, which renders the floor pretty low in the event that it disappoints, but the ceiling isn’t too bad if it gets above average reviews.

 

A Tale of Two Brothers’s main contention, outside of whether it’ll be good or not, isn’t audience fatigue of tentpoles from the summer prior, rather it’ll be audience attention being stolen by what’s ahead of it. Both Metroid and the Green Arrow sequel two and three weeks later are going to be huge roadblocks, and a back-to-black blow could effectively end FMA’s run before the October onslaught even kicks into gear, so it has to bank on making as much income as possible in the little window it has which, given its uncertain status, is not going to be an easy feat. Effectively, I believe the film has to break out on opening weekend to have a decent chance at the two-hundred million dollar mark, and that’s going to be a tall order, especially if it’s more Bleach than Megalo Box.

 

Predict: $100-$180 million

 

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Metroid

 

Having been in development for quite a few years and hopped between at least two studios, Horizon Entertainment is hoping to finally bring the semi-neglected Nintendo franchise to the big screen in Year 8. The studio has found a comfortable snuggle room in the $125 to $190 million range, but whether Metroid will be able to break out of that norm is entirely dependent on if it holds up and if the fall season plays out as scheduled. For some reason, the fall season is a real doozy this year.

 

Metroid is in a weird space (pun not intended) as far as Nintendo IPs go. Its level of recognition is closer to that of Mario and Zelda than that of, say, Chibi-Robo, but Nintendo themselves have given the series sparse treatment over the years. This has improved somewhat lately, despite the issues facing Metroid Prime 4 at the moment, but I’m not entirely sure where the series stands as of this writing. That hasn’t stopped Pillars of Eternity and Mass Effect from being big CAYOM players despite their IRL creators’ treatment of them, and I feel a decent Metroid adaptation would be successful regardless, but if I’ve taken the IRL popularities of Zelda and Animal Crossing into account thus far, I can’t entirely discount Metroid's.

 

Much like Fullmetal Alchemist, Metroid is currently sandwiched between multiple competitors which is going to make it that much harder to develop sustainable business going forward. While I don’t think a mid-September release is going to hinder a substantial opening weekend, just how high it goes could entirely depend on the final product. Space movies are favored in the CAYOM landscape, but just how much that favorability helps it stand out from the crowd remains to be seen. Provided the situation remains as is, my prediction is going to be on the modest end.

 

Predict: $140-$200 million

 

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Green Arrow: The Ninth Circle

 

This was not on the advance schedule, but I decided to include it since it was already posted by the time I began doing the forecast. The first Green Arrow was like Static Shock on a lower scale — skating by with decent if unremarkable reviews and a legendarily weak summer season. With the sequel going bigger in scope but also into a more crowded market (seriously, why is fall so crowded?), can Endless Entertainment recreate the moderate success of the first film or will this B-list superhero strike out on round two and have to go back to the CW channel?

 

Increase from predecessor? UNLIKELY / LIKELY

 

The reason this is a border case is, as mentioned with both Fullmetal Alchemist and Metroid, the competition. The Ninth Circle is in a very cramped position, and while being a sequel to a moderately successful film gives it some advantage, there’s also the 50-50 track record of Endless Entertainment sequels (for every Green Lantern there’s a Treasure Planet) and the historical comparison to the Kingsman sequel which also opened in late September after its predecessor opened elsewhere. Part of Kingsman: The Golden Circle’s failure stemmed from being a bloated rehash of what came before it, so if The Ninth Circle can avoid as many comparisons as possible besides the unfortunate title, it should be able to weather the incoming storm a little bit better.

 

That said, I feel opening weekend has to be a substantial improvement from its predecessor’s $53 million for an increase to be possible, because competition is going to make a huge dent on its fortunes as things currently stand.

 

Predict: $130-$185 million

 

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Untitled Olive the Other Reindeer Halloween Sequel

 

This one is in a bit of a precarious position not on basis of potential quality or any competition surrounding it (other family films have stayed well clear as of yet), but rather on its confirmed premise. This is gonna take some explaining.

 

Olive the Other Reindeer, bowing in Year 5, was one of the best received family films of that year, even garnering Jake Gyllenhaal a Best Supporting Actor award, so naturally expectations should be pretty high going into any follow-up. As doing another Christmas storyline would’ve been understandably repetitive, Blankments Productions have taken the Dr. Suess route (see: The Grinch) and based the second entry on the spookier time of year, and from what I understand taking on a darker and potentially more divisive storyline as well. While all that is interesting, it does lead into why I’m making this predict.

 

Increase from predecessor? UNLIKELY / LIKELY

 

Here’s the thing: Christmas is by far the most dominant holiday of the year, and whenever a formerly Christmas-themed property moves away from the jolly old holidays and into a different time of year, the result is almost always inferior and draws less interest. Not that I believe the Olive sequel will be inferior without having seen it, but some of the built-in interest may be lesser the second time around, which is unfortunate given how well received the original was.

 

That said, the good reception is going to mitigate a lot of the inherent disadvantage, I feel. The film brings back basically the whole cast while introducing some fresh faces, and even if some plot elements may not end up being to everyone’s taste, I don’t think it’ll be to the film’s financial detriment either unless those changes are so drastic they turn people who might have otherwise been interested off from it. Plus, as Halloween dawns at the end of the month there should be one last sweet bounce in revenue before the holiday releases start drowning it out.

 

Predict: $195-$240 million

 

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Abomination

 

Films aimed more at older audiences and awards are a lot harder to predict, since they more or less ride or die on their reviews. That’s going to be a bit of a theme with some of the predicts in the coming months as we move into the “Oscar-bait season”, for the lack of a better term.

 

That said, the premise of this (basically Frankenstein from the monster’s perspective) should solidify some solid interest from the get-go as long as it isn’t too cerebral or esoteric. Having seen the director’s work, I expect a fairly grounded approach to the fantastical elements, which should bode well financially if the film’s good enough. The cast is at least bound to get some attention.

 

Predict: $40-$90 million (disclaimer: I don’t know what the budget is so I don’t know how high Lager Pictures is aiming here)

 

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World of Trouble

 

To me, both The Last Policeman and Countdown City are awesome films (despite the presence of Ansel Elgort, who thankfully has been recast with our boi Alden Erenreich), and after the latter acquired a Best Picture nomination while seeing a massive surge at the box office (going from $85 million to $170 million), expectations are undoubtedly very high for the final chapter of the trilogy. Will Hank and Nico reconcile as the end of all life on earth finally dawns? Just how deep does the government conspiracy we’ve been hearing since the beginning go? What’s gonna happen to the cute doggy, other than that it’s probably going to be vaporized with the rest of them?

 

Increase from predecessor? LIKELY

 

I’m only covering my bases as far as including the possibility that the final chapter could be a letdown (disclaimer: I have not read any of the books, so I don’t know how it ends) and that, unlike some other trilogy finishers like Odyssey, Pillars of Eternity and The Scavenger Wars (to an extent), I think the nature of these films being atmospheric police dramas means the ceiling is naturally going to be lower, so I don’t expect some crazy explosion at the finish line, but a perfectly solid result nonetheless.

 

As far as competition goes, Abomination, Four Songs of the Wise and Dirty Hands all release in October, but they are more likely to be targets rather than threats, so on the adult drama scene it should be smooth sailing all the way into November. Part of what helped get Countdown City to $170 million though was strong legs well into Thanksgiving, and that’s a bit more of a question mark this time, especially since I expect a bit more frontloading with it being the last chapter. Not to the point it’ll make a huge difference, but a somewhat noticeable one. Still, I don’t think Numerator Pictures has much to worry about.

 

Predict: $160-$215 million

 

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Four Songs of the Wise

 

Wait, Peter Bogdanavich is back directing?

 

 

(Yes, he's appeared in a few stuff recently, but he hasn't directed a feature film since 2014, and it's been decades since any of his films have seen a wide release.)

 

But yes, everything from the director choice, to the premise, to… basically all of it, suggests it won’t be very commercial. It should do a bit better than pretty much all of Bogdanovich’s films post-Mask on the basis of securing a wide enough release, maybe a little bit more if it garners any awards attention, but this is probably going to be the lowest predict I’ll make on this forecast. Not that much to dig into here.

 

Predict: $5-$15 million

 

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Panzer Dragoon

 

New Journey Pictures hopes to cut a slice out of the fantasy market that doesn’t involve making your otherwise grounded story go bonkers halfway through (with mixed results) with this loose adaptation of a Sega Saturn cult classic. I have played Panzer Dragoon once or twice, but I’m not familiar with the lore or what NJP hopes to squeeze out of it, so I’d be interested in seeing what they come up with, especially since I do love me some dragons.

 

The mid-October release date I don’t think is a coincidence either, as this time last year the studio had its by far biggest hit with Megalo Box grossing over a billion dollars worldwide, so the hope is for lightning to strike again, even if I wouldn’t call it especially likely.

 

I think the fortunes of this one sort of depends on how audiences feel after the blockbuster onslaught during the five weeks prior — after Fullmetal Alchemist, Metroid, Green Arrow, Olive, and World of Trouble, it’s possible audiences might be spent for the season — and the looming Avatar: The Last Airbender adaptation dropping in early November may mean some skip Panzer Dragoon for it. I don’t think Dragoon could skirt by on being merely average (disclaimer: I don’t know what the budget is) or, worse, mediocre, but if it manages to impress I think it should be able to cling on just fine. That’s a bit of an unfair weight to put on it, perhaps, but with the fall season being surprisingly cutthroat as of this writing, I think more needs to be done to stand out.

 

Predict: $80 - $180 million (big range, but I’m covering my bases here)

Edited November 17, 2020 by cookie

[Reddroast]

So about fma... I have it at 80-200 million. This is for a couple of reasons. First is both anime adaptions are BELOVED ( the 09 one is the highest-rated series on MAL). And 2 is that when we had IT in mind when we chose the date due to the horror elements in the series (woof!)

 

[cookie]

THE FOURTH QUARTER (PART TWO)

 

(December is coming either tomorrow or Wednesday, depending on how work goes)

 

 

The Last Airbender: The Boy in the Iceberg

 

I think some people are jumping ahead a little bit by calling this the top contender for the biggest film of the year, but I think it’s up there at least (I don’t buy into the belief that it’d be a lock for $200 million even with a 0 on Metacritic, though. Real life has already proved otherwise). It’s certainly the strongest non-sequel contender we have this year, but does it have a better chance than either the third Mass Effect or the second Squirrel Girl?

 

I’m not saying no, but I’m saying yes either. The novelty of there finally being a proper adaptation (hopefully) of the iconic Nickelodeon franchise is going to help, sure, but I think there are too many variables in place for me to make any direct call on this one.

 

Increase from predecessor? HIGHLY LIKELY

 

You have to try to do a worse job adapting the show than M. Night Shyamalan did back in 2010. Short digression, but the strangest part of that whole film to me is how sloppy and sometimes amateurish it is, despite Shyamalan having a lot of money and talent surrounding him to spend. I don’t know whether to even believe the rumours that there was heavy studio interference since I feel even that wouldn’t produce something so limp and lifeless unless what Shyamalan shot was that unusable.

 

None of that has much impact on what I feel about Blankments Productions’ new take on the material (unless it somehow is as bad, which I hope not), even if I have to take the studio’s word for it that the first season can still be done in one film. I think fans of the franchise are perfectly willing to give another live-action adaptation its due shot, and anyone else would’ve either repressed or forgotten the 2010 film by now. If the franchise was popular enough that a flaming trash heap of an adaptation could still make decent money in 2010, then a proper adaptation should make a lot of cash in Year 8 with the added benefit of millennial nostalgia for the original series having kicked in since a while back.

 

Whether the film could sustain itself in the long term, and especially long enough to be a contender for the top film of the year, I’m a little less sure about. The likely onslaught of tentpoles in December is probably going to put a stop to it, but so far the only tentpole competitor in November now that The Wild Thornberrys moved to March is The Castaways on Thanksgiving weekend, and that film can go any which way really (more on that later). It’s also far enough past the fall onslaught that people shouldn’t feel too overwhelmed with tentpole blockbusters still, and maybe some audiences choose to skip some of them in favour of this one, as I feel The Boy in the Iceberg would have more in-built hype.

 

I’ve had the first Voltron film in my head for a while when comparing this to anything previously made in Cayom, although Avatar being the more iconic property (and my iteration of Voltron if anything should have Avatar to thank for its existence) should give it a bit more of a boost out of the gate. How much, I’m not entirely sure, but if November is ever going to have a clear winner before a dime’s even been spent at the ticket booth, it should be this one.

 

Predict: $275-$400 million

 

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The Bronx is Burning

 

Good ol’ Marty’s back in CAYOM, baby, and now that he’s part of the Numerator Pictures historical dramatization quadrology (?), I’d advise not to stand near the ensuing black hole that’s gonna sweep up all the Oscars lest there’d suddenly be fewer studios once the dust settles.

 

I’m kidding, of course, but Bronx is Burning is one of those legendary films from a time gone by that seeing it finally come to 3.0 is a bit of an event in and of itself. Whether it’s going to be an event for the average Joe Hamburger or just for stuffy old critics and Marty stans is a little more of a question. For some reason, I’ve always had a combo of Moneyball adjusted and last year’s Notorious in my head for a box office comparison more so than And the Band Played On, even if the latter may be a bit more fitting. It’s obviously not just about baseball. Or maybe it is. I don’t know.

 

Dismissing Silence and that one sentence Dorian Gray adaptation released in Year 5, Martin Scorsese’s previous five films that got a wide theatrical release average to about a $110 million domestic gross, and that’s with Hugo dragging it down in the rear. Concurrently, the average between And the Band Played On, Fortnight and The Most Wanted Man in Great Britain is a whopping $217 million, but that’s probably well out of reach unless something crazy happens. It should be noted that Bronx doesn’t have the same proximity to Christmas as most of its comparisons, but I can see an opening comparable to Notorious if not Ford v. Ferrari as long as things work out in the film’s favour. Sure, The Last Airbender is going to suck up most of the oxygen that weekend, but Bronx is almost the perfect counterprogramming, and if the adult audience isn’t too spent after October, Bronx would almost be the movie every dad flocks to while they leave their kids to see Aang and friends in the same multiplex.

 

Predict: $100-$135 million

 

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The World That We Knew

 

The World That We Knew is unique among the films listed here because it’s already been seen by most critics, and the response so far has been pretty positive. Holocaust dramas have never been known to be big moneymakers, though, (Schindler’s List cracked the top ten in 1993 but that was a long time ago, and it was also the year Spielberg was on fire), and I think that besides it being a depressing topic it’s also been milked so hard by award-hungry producers that even the jokes spawned from it stopped being funny a decade ago.

 

The fantasy aspect of this one plus the already positive reviews may make this feel less like something like The Reader, but I’d still be cautious to expect too much out of this, especially with how crowded the fall to winter window already is. The book doesn’t seem that widely popular from what I can gather (at least it’s not recognized enough that it has its own Wiki page) so I wouldn’t bank on it falling back on admirers of the source material either. I don’t want to go too low on it since it’s a sincere effort that despite a few bumps pulls through in my opinion, but most of the available data I have prevents me from going any higher.

 

Predict: $45-$75 million

 

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The Wicker Man

 

Okay, to explain this one; My Wicker Man is a distant follow-up to the 1973 original cult classic rather than another remake (because I thought doing another remake would be boring, and you can’t top the Nic Cage version in meme-worthy iconography anyway) that I’m modelling more like The Last Policeman films with horror elements added to it than perhaps what I think some people might expect coming off the original. David Tennant’s CAYOM career so far has been more centred around voice roles and supporting bits in tentpole films, but I want this one to be a showcase of how good he really is as a dramatic actor (seriously, watch Broadchurch, it’s really, really good and he’s really, really good in it) and so far it’s my best bet for a Best Actor nomination this year, provided I finish it.

 

I give this one a range based on what I want from it, but I don’t have much of a clue on how it’s going to go. Maybe it performs more like my R-rated non-Scavs films of the past, like Ripper and Damnation Alley, maybe it doesn’t. I did put this last in the streak of adult-aiming films starting with Abomination for a reason, so provided I finish it and something drastic doesn’t happen, I should be in a pretty decent position to work my way through Thanksgiving.

 

Increase from predecessor? HIGHLY LIKELY

 

Like I said back at the start, Box Office Mojo does not have available data for how the 1973 original film performed in the United States, and I doubt it was anywhere near significant enough that my rendition should have much trouble exceeding that, if at all. The Nic Cage version was also a huge bomb, so if you rather want to compare it to that I don’t see much reason to doubt there either. I think I’m in the clear here.

 

Predict: $60-$125 million

 

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The Castaways

 

With most other tentpoles vacating November because Aang and friends are that spoopy, The Castaways remains as the lone challenger, but it’s kinda hard to get a good sense of how it'll perform given the so far vague premise, even if the director duo involved launched two of CAYOM’s biggest franchises in the past, so there perhaps is hope among the producers that lightning will strike thrice. 

 

With there so far being a lack of PG-13 tentpoles (at least I assume it’s PG-13) going forward into December it should stick around after Thanksgiving, unless word of mouth is poorer than anticipated. Just how big The Last Airbender becomes is also going to play a huge factor, and given how high the variables are on that one, it’s difficult to say, really.

 

Not knowing the final budget or what Horizon Entertainment expects from it, my prediction as of right now will be very modest.

 

Predict: $125-$180 million

 

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Everything We Miss

 

Technically the first of November's films to be released, but among the last to go wide. I’ll admit I basically did this in response to seeing how well Laika fared last year (I haven’t posted it yet though because I want to sit on it for as long as possible and do whatever rewrites I feel necessary), and I don’t expect much from a commercial standpoint. It’s a semi-fantasy/semi-esoteric relationship drama with a limited voice cast and low-budget animation to match the look of the graphic novel, and I did this just to get something out of my system rather than anything else. Whether it’ll work or not, I honestly don’t know.

 

Predict: $20-$40 million
 

Edited November 23, 2020 by cookie

[cookie]

THE FOURTH QUARTER (PART THREE)

 

 

Plus Two

 

One of the more memorable hits of the otherwise slow Year 6 was the equally charming and equally funny Plus One, starring Tessa Thompson and Adam Driver with enough electric chemistry to power the CAYOM industry for a trillion years, and now they’re back in a sequel along with the additions of the lovable Roman Griffin Davis and Pam Grier among others. While the preview short before last year’s Temple Run didn’t elicit that big of a response, one more round of drunk karaoke shouldn’t be too much to ask during the so far sparse holiday season, am I right?

 

Increase from predecessor? LIKELY

 

Comedy sequels are fickle; some blow up (Pitch Perfect 2, Meet the Fockers, 22 Jump Street, Hangover: Part II on opening weekend, etc.) and many do the exact opposite (Ted 2, Magic Mike XXL, Neighbors 2, Think Like a Man Too, the third Hangover and Pitch Perfect films, etc.). Oftentimes the problem is either that the sequel feels like reheated leftovers, or that people just thought the premise was a one and done and so one could argue that the original film overperformed in the first place.

 

In Plus Two’s defense, everything I’ve seen of it suggests it won’t be a blatant rehash, even if replicating the charm of the original was always going to be a tall order. The switch from summer to December is a plus also (pun not intended), as audiences not interested in either the Squirrel Girl sequel or The Queen Who Never Was would have a perfect date night option over the holidays. As long as Plus Two isn’t a spectacularly poor downgrade from its predecessor or tread too much into being cutesy when the original managed to be both charming and crude, there’s not too much I see that’d work against it.

 

Predict: $140-$190 million

 

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Untitled Unbeatable Squirrel Girl Sequel

 

Looking at the Year 8 schedule (combining both the advance schedule and what’s listed in the studio plans), there’s currently seven animated films scheduled for release in Year 8:

 

• Dog Man
• Where?
• Meeka
• Beastars
• Animal Crossing
• Everything We Miss
• Untitled Unbeatable Squirrel Girl Sequel

 

(YM told me Larrikins was unlikely to happen)

 

At least two of these are definitely not aimed at young audiences, and post Animal Crossing there’s a four month gap between it and the low-budget, limited release Everything We Miss, and a five month gap between Crossing and the anticipated Squirrel Girl sequel. Disregarding The Last Airbender and Panzer Dragoon, which may have family appeal but are still fantasy blockbusters aimed at general audiences, the last kid-friendly tentpole release would be the Olive the Other Reindeer sequel in the beginning of October. This is likely going to change, but if we pretend for a moment that this is how things pan out, then Squirrel Girl may just be in the most favorable position on the schedule this whole year, even disregarding the automatic benefit of being a December release.

 

There’s three films that, at the moment, I see as the likeliest contenders for topping the Year 8 box office. I’ve already discussed both Mass Effect and The Last Airbender, one with a high built-in floor and the other with the potential to break out beyond expectations, and when it comes to the Squirrel Girl sequel, both the floor and the ceiling are fairly high, especially under current conditions.

 

Increase from predecessor? HIGHLY LIKELY

 

Reception has less of an effect on family animated films than most other genres, outside of maybe teen slashers, but being tolerable to parents can go a long way to get them to take their kids to see the sequel, and The Unbeatable Squirrel Girl had a lot of heart, meta-humor and Marvel comic book menagerie to strike a chord with more than just its youngest viewers. While reception was never on the tier of Can You Imagine? or Gateways, an 85 on the critical aggregate is nothing to snuff at.

 

What prevents Squirrel Girl from seeing an increase comparable to last year’s Should You Imagine? partly comes down to scheduling. Imagine switched from spring to a prime summer spot, while Squirrel Girl works from the same conditions as its also December bound predecessor. The added benefit of exclusive access to IMAX after the fourth Scavenger Wars film vacated may make a minor difference, but animated films have rarely had the same impact on the format that live-action blockbuster spectacles have. There’s also the question of if the publicized storyline won’t be more appealing to the parents than it may be to their children, even if the superhero antics should keep them occupied for the majority of the runtime. Given the lack of family options otherwise during the Year 8 holidays as of yet, though, I can’t see that factor making that big of a difference, at least unless the film actively starts boring its target audience.

 

Predict: $315-$425 million

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The Queen Who Never Was

 

I'm sorry, Numbers, but I can’t just give a shrug to this one. 

 

It’s a Game of Thrones prequel. A Game of Thrones prequel.

 

The HBO series effectively altered the landscape for genre television series. It kept HBO a viable entity during the decline of cable and the rise of streaming. It won a record number of Emmys. Nearly every high-budget genre show that came out in its wake got compared to it in some way, and nearly every high-budget genre show nowadays wants to be it. Only The Lord of the Rings and Harry Potter have been more influential for the fantasy genre, and now even Lord of the Rings may borrow from it.

 

Yes, the final season was an utter mess and dampened its legacy. Yes, CAYOM may be rebooted three more times before George R.R. Martin finishes The Winds of Winter. Yes, the complex, multi-threaded storytelling is far more suited for television than it is to film. Yes, the film is said to be at least three hours long (though that hasn’t stopped some of the highest grossing films of all time in the past). And yes, it’s a prequel taking place 200 years before the events anyone gave a damn about.

 

But come on.

 

Now that the fourth Scavenger Wars film has vacated Year 8, there’s also no other live-action big budget tentpole film releasing this christmas, and both The Last Airbender and Castaways will be old news by then. Maybe a three-hour prequel won’t be everyone’s cup of tea, but Solo: A Star Wars Story I honestly feel is the floor for this domestically, and the likelihood of Hobbit numbers or higher is not a distant possibility either. Until competitors like Zelda, Last Airbender and Panzer Dragoon actually start coming out, Numerator Pictures pretty much owns the high fantasy genre, and both Pillars of Eternity and Sylvarius were hugely successful under less favorable conditions.

 

I understand being cautious. I understand that just because something’s popular doesn’t mean people are going to turn out for everything related to it. I understand that being a gory, three-hours plus political allegory spanning multiple years is going to leave some people a bit lost. It's pretty much a massive wildcard. But I can't be dismissive of it either. That’s just me being honest.

 

I’m gonna make a staunch prediction here. Deal with it.

 

Predict: $250-$350 million

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The Orphan Master’s Son

 

This may be brilliant. This may not even come out. The likelihood of it coming out given the lack of updates from Panda is a bit slim to begin with.

 

But also, given the premise and the fact that it’s basically a foreign film, the appeal among general audiences is probably going to be very limited, even if Park Chan-Wook is a darling among foreign film connoisseurs. If you want to see me actually shrugging on something, it’s going to be this one. This is a probably a film you could talk about at length, but there’s really nothing to say when it comes to its box office prospects, which is what this whole thread is about. I’m sorry.

 

Predict: 🤷‍♂️

Edited November 28, 2020 by cookie