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Maggie

Predict US Box office for July 2021

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July 2021 seems to be the most competitive month of next summer. Predict what you think box office will look like.  This is not a club. It would be nice if this topic remains in this forum to get some discussion going. We have nothing else to talk about. Thanks

 

 

 

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Edited by Maggie

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Minions 150M

Top Gun 2 100M

 

The Forever Purge 50

Shang Chi 250

 

Barb 30M

Space Jam 150M

Uncharted 150M

 

Old 100M

The Tomorrow War 80M

 

Jungle Cruise 130M

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I think Space Jam goes Max and Jungle Cruise goes D+. Shang Chi > $300m, Top Gun 2 > $150m? Uncharted does sub-$80m, ditto Tomorrow War.

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1 hour ago, TMP said:

I think Space Jam goes Max and Jungle Cruise goes D+. Shang Chi > $300m, Top Gun 2 > $150m? Uncharted does sub-$80m, ditto Tomorrow War.

FWIW it's been discussed elsewhere but the likely reason why Jungle Cruise hasn't gone to D+ is because it would require completely renegotiating Dwayne Johnson's deal for the movie to make that happen (meaning they would have to pay him two full salaries). Was perhaps telling why they had no problem moving it back an entire year during the release date shuffle earlier this year while the other 2020 Disney branded titles were moved around (before eventually abandoning theatrical releases).

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wb putting space jam and sony putting uncharted one week after shang-chi seems stupid, wouldn't be surprised to see either of them move to august which is emptier

Edited by snarkmachine

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1 hour ago, snarkmachine said:

wb putting space jam and sony putting uncharted one week after shang-chi seems stupid, wouldn't be surprised to see either of them move to august which is emptier

Space Jam's a kids film (like Minions 2, releasing a week before Shang-Chi) so they won't be targeting the same audience and Uncharted is a flop wherever it goes.

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3 hours ago, lorddemaxus said:

Space Jam's a kids film (like Minions 2, releasing a week before Shang-Chi) so they won't be targeting the same audience and Uncharted is a flop wherever it goes.

you say this like marvel movies aren’t kids movies too

 

i could see uncharted performing like the first pirates movie if it’s any good 

Edited by snarkmachine

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Minions 180, Shang Chi 260 is what I think I said before for those, my opinion hasn’t changed on them so far.   
 

Top Gun 50M, way overhyped.    
 

Forever Purge also 50 I guess, but I don’t know this franchise history off the top of my head and I didn’t bother looking it up.   
 

Barb 25, Space Jam 50, Uncharted 80

 

Dunno what Old is, Tomorrow War 70, Cruise 180

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So, if I'm predicting the box office of the whole month...I think March 2020 will be a good number to hit.  March was when we started shutting down, but we had huge tentpoles...and July 2021 might be when we start opening up and we'll have huge tentpoles...

 

So, I'm gonna be optimistic and say the month makes March 2020 money plus a little inflation for $260M DOM.

 

EDIT: This guess is July box office, not July movies that run til October:)...so any movie that opens sooner and has box office in July + any July movies box office in July:)...

Edited by TwoMisfits

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23 minutes ago, WandaLegion said:

Minions 180, Shang Chi 260 is what I think I said before for those, my opinion hasn’t changed on them so far.   
 

Top Gun 50M, way overhyped.    
 

Forever Purge also 50 I guess, but I don’t know this franchise history off the top of my head and I didn’t bother looking it up.   
 

Barb 25, Space Jam 50, Uncharted 80

 

Dunno what Old is, Tomorrow War 70, Cruise 180

I don't see how Uncharted or Tomorrow War beat Top Gun or Space Jam, espescially the former. Chris Pratt star power is dead at this point and Uncharted will probably get Sonic pre-redesign level reception from fans. I expect both Top Gun and Space Jam to do at least the numbers of their predecessors. 

Edited by lorddemaxus

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10 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

I don't see how Uncharted or Tomorrow War beat Top Gun or Space Jam, espescially the former. I expect both Top Gun and Space Jam to do at least the numbers of their predecessors.

I really dunno about Uncharted or Tomorrow War, I just didn’t want to go “eh, about 50” for everything midrange 😆   
 

I have some Independence Day: Resurgence vibes from both of the 20+ year sequels (though not ditching the main actor certainly helps).

Edited by WandaLegion
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The original Top Gun is seen as pure 80s cheese these days but there's enough interest in a 30+ years later sequel to ensure that it's in no way doing just $50M total (especially if it ends up good, which it might given the cast and crew involved) unless moviegoing is still still struggling by then. A total in the $125-145M range sounds about right.

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Just now, WandaLegion said:

I really dunno about Uncharted or Tomorrow War, I just didn’t want to go “eh, about 50” for everything midrange 😆   
 

I have some Independence Day: Resurgence vibes from both of the 20+ year sequels (though not ditching the main actor certainly helps).

If the actors didn't return I'd agree. But I'm expecting something closer to Bad Boys for Life here. I'm expecting a large number of boomers to come out for Top Gun. Space Jam probably won't be as big, but it still has some potential with whatever shit is being throwing at it.

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1 minute ago, lorddemaxus said:

If the actors didn't return I'd agree. But I'm expecting something closer to Bad Boys for Life here. I'm expecting a large number of boomers to come out for Top Gun. Space Jam probably won't be as big, but it still has some potential with whatever shit is being throwing at it.

Hope you’re right for theater’s sake

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FWIW, my parents, who saw Top Gun when they were in their 20s, were both pretty excited when they heard about the sequel, so I would assume there's enough of a nostalgic hook here with that kind of crowd. It also helps it isn't like Terminator or Charlie's Angels where a whole bunch of crap sequels and TV shows have diluted the brand.

 

Space Jam 2 feels like one of those Detective Pikachu things where people go crazy and think 90s nostalgia will make it a megahit, only for it to do just kind of okay business. At least I hope so, because the nostalgia fixation people have on Space Jam is stupid and dumb and stupid.

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34 minutes ago, Eric Karga said:

Space Jam 2 feels like one of those Detective Pikachu things where people go crazy and think 90s nostalgia will make it a megahit, only for it to do just kind of okay business. At least I hope so, because the nostalgia fixation people have on Space Jam is stupid and dumb and stupid.

Space Jam was massive purely because it was a Michael Jordan film that came out at the height of his popularity. Lebron is big, but he’s nowhere near MJ big, especially internationally, and Bugs Bunny isn’t really what kids are into these days.

 

I think it’ll open “okay” thanks to Lebron’s fans, and then it’ll sink like a stone.

 

As for Uncharted...I like Tom Holland, but he’s about as far from Nathan Drake as you can get, and don’t even get me started on Mark Wahlberg as Sully, that’s one of the biggest examples of bad casting I can think of.

Edited by SnokesLegs

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1 hour ago, filmlover said:

The original Top Gun is seen as pure 80s cheese these days but there's enough interest in a 30+ years later sequel to ensure that it's in no way doing just $50M total (especially if it ends up good, which it might given the cast and crew involved) unless moviegoing is still still struggling by then. A total in the $125-145M range sounds about right.

I think that's the problem. I don't think TG2 will be any good. We had a reaction after the screening in December who said it's bad. Sure, things could change, but i doubt it.

 

Uncharted - i don't know the game, but it seems it's huge. Doubt it will break the video game curse though

Edited by Maggie

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